BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴
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Blue passports.rick_chasey said:It’s not about anything else either
What has it actually done?
Entirely as expected. Brexshit.The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
Just in case anyone was at risk of giving Gove any slack...
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The Braverman comment alone is enough to nullify any creditability.briantrumpet said:Just in case anyone was at risk of giving Gove any slack...
The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
Sovereignty means we have blue passports and it is our choosing that we have the same number of immigrants as we did previously.rick_chasey said:It’s not about anything else either
What has it actually done?
We have also learned that the State is not as efficient at allocating resources as the market0 -
We're in danger of confusing passion with incompetence
- @ddraver0 -
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Toyota on Brexit
Well done all0 -
Who is the ‘all’ you’re thanking? This is one place where you definitely aren’t a lone voice on the subject!rick_chasey said:Toyota on Brexit
Well done all
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An unusually balanced Guardian article. Brexit not having much of an impact either way.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/nov/06/brexit-blame-uk-economy-opportunity-eu
Makes reference to this report. Some interesting comments eg NI is not booming under the protocol.
https://www.briefingsforbritain.co.uk/what-impact-is-brexit-having-on-the-uk-economy/0 -
"After six years, the argument for Brexit remains what it always was: an opportunity to look at an under-performing economy in a new light and to do things differently. Whether that opportunity will be seized or squandered remains to be seen, but there is no gorilla in the room, just a mouse with a loud squeak."
After 6 years of squandering I'm willing to bet there will be no opportunity seized.
How long do we have to wait for "too soon" to be up?The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
TheBigBean said:
An unusually balanced Guardian article. Brexit not having much of an impact either way.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/nov/06/brexit-blame-uk-economy-opportunity-eu
Makes reference to this report. Some interesting comments eg NI is not booming under the protocol.
https://www.briefingsforbritain.co.uk/what-impact-is-brexit-having-on-the-uk-economy/
Ah, Larry Elliott, Corbyn's go-to ardently pro-Brexit man. At least he's consistent.
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Briefings for Britain (the author of the quoted report) suggested that the Trussterfuck budget was flawed by not going further and faster. So you'll have to excuse me if I don't give them much credibility.
https://www.briefingsforbritain.co.uk/the-mini-budget-good-but-could-be-better/
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This bit sums up this thread quite neatly:TheBigBean said:An unusually balanced Guardian article. Brexit not having much of an impact either way.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/nov/06/brexit-blame-uk-economy-opportunity-eu
Makes reference to this report. Some interesting comments eg NI is not booming under the protocol.
https://www.briefingsforbritain.co.uk/what-impact-is-brexit-having-on-the-uk-economy/
"The UK economy is clearly struggling. Growth has stalled, interest rates are going up and the Treasury is softening up the public for a new dose of austerity measures.
For some, the explanation for these horrors is simple: Britain is paying the price for its decision to leave the European Union. Forget the impact of the most severe pandemic in a century. Forget what Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has done to energy prices. Brexit is the “gorilla in the room”.
Really? Or is this a classic case of confirmation bias, where someone starts with a preconceived view and then finds evidence to back up their argument? As in: I always said Brexit would be a disaster; the economy is in a bad way; Brexit is to blame and here’s the proof.'
In the nearly 3 years since we left, the pandemic and Ukraine have been much more significant issues than Brexit.
"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
My expectation was that brexit would make things generally a bit worse than they otherwise would have been.2
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Different authors. Same website. You seem keen to ignore the content and focus on the players.briantrumpet said:Briefings for Britain (the author of the quoted report) suggested that the Trussterfuck budget was flawed by not going further and faster. So you'll have to excuse me if I don't give them much credibility.
https://www.briefingsforbritain.co.uk/the-mini-budget-good-but-could-be-better/0 -
This bit is also quite relevant: as mentioned above, it's no biggie:
"The Briefings for Brexit paper (a comprehensive piece of work, worth reading whichever side of the argument you are on) says these counterfactual analyses are flawed. It concludes: “A careful reading of the evidence shows that while there is little evidence yet that Brexit is doing much to help the UK economy, neither is there evidence of much harm.”
That rings true. There has been no Armageddon. The economy is adapting, even if that process has been made more difficult by the pandemic, the war, and Liz Truss’ brief period as prime minister. If the effects of Brexit have tended to be exaggerated, then the impact of the pandemic and the lockdowns that accompanied it have tended to be downplayed, perhaps because the most fervent anti-Brexiters also wanted longer and more stringent lockdowns."
As for the last bit, have they been reading Cake Stop?
"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
TheBigBean said:
Different authors. Same website. You seem keen to ignore the content and focus on the players.briantrumpet said:Briefings for Britain (the author of the quoted report) suggested that the Trussterfuck budget was flawed by not going further and faster. So you'll have to excuse me if I don't give them much credibility.
https://www.briefingsforbritain.co.uk/the-mini-budget-good-but-could-be-better/
It's Farage with a posh accent. I'm not going to start giving credibility to Farage, or the IEA, or BfB. That they are happy to publish rubbish saying that Kwarteng didn't go far & fast enough, I'm content to dismiss them summarily. I'm not going to start reading the Daily Express or Daily Mail for the same reason.1 -
You’re not looking at the figures if you think Brexit has had no impact.
Nor are you listening to business leaders up and down the country.
No one is saying that things like the war aren’t also having a huge effect, but I bet you Kwarteng would have been given more leeway by the markets if it hadn’t happened. The hole in the budget is roughly the hole Brexit has generated. Go figure.
Then again, he’d not have made it into government, which is the other bit people seem to forget.
Aside from the opportunity cost for the govt focusing on Brexit rather than the long term issues of low growth etc, it’s also given us the worst of the Tory party as government for the past 6 years.0 -
I thought you would like this bitrick_chasey said:You’re not looking at the figures if you think Brexit has had no impact.
Nor are you listening to business leaders up and down the country.
No one is saying that things like the war aren’t also having a huge effect, but I bet you Kwarteng would have been given more leeway by the markets if it hadn’t happened. The hole in the budget is roughly the hole Brexit has generated. Go figure.
Then again, he’d not have made it into government, which is the other bit people seem to forget.
Aside from the opportunity cost for the govt focusing on Brexit rather than the long term issues of low growth etc, it’s also given us the worst of the Tory party as government for the past 6 years.Mark Carney, the former governor of the Bank of England, takes a dimmer view. He has argued that Britain’s economy was 90% the size of Germany’s before Brexit but only 70% the size of it today.
Prof Jonathan Portes, an economist at King’s College London who is no fan of Brexit, has described this comparison as “nonsense” because it involves measuring the value of economies at prevailing exchange rates. This is not the normal method economists use to assess the relative performance of countries, because comparisons are heavily influenced by movements in currencies. The pound, for example, is almost 10% higher than it was during a recent trough against the US dollar, but that doesn’t mean the UK economy has grown by almost 10% relative to the American economy in the past month.1 -
I don't get the argument that because we've had worse impacts from two of the four horses of the apocalypse that Brexit still isn't a big deal0
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I think we had already established that that was Carneybollox. But good to get another confirmation.TheBigBean said:
I thought you would like this bitrick_chasey said:You’re not looking at the figures if you think Brexit has had no impact.
Nor are you listening to business leaders up and down the country.
No one is saying that things like the war aren’t also having a huge effect, but I bet you Kwarteng would have been given more leeway by the markets if it hadn’t happened. The hole in the budget is roughly the hole Brexit has generated. Go figure.
Then again, he’d not have made it into government, which is the other bit people seem to forget.
Aside from the opportunity cost for the govt focusing on Brexit rather than the long term issues of low growth etc, it’s also given us the worst of the Tory party as government for the past 6 years.Mark Carney, the former governor of the Bank of England, takes a dimmer view. He has argued that Britain’s economy was 90% the size of Germany’s before Brexit but only 70% the size of it today.
Prof Jonathan Portes, an economist at King’s College London who is no fan of Brexit, has described this comparison as “nonsense” because it involves measuring the value of economies at prevailing exchange rates. This is not the normal method economists use to assess the relative performance of countries, because comparisons are heavily influenced by movements in currencies. The pound, for example, is almost 10% higher than it was during a recent trough against the US dollar, but that doesn’t mean the UK economy has grown by almost 10% relative to the American economy in the past month."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
I think people are misunderstanding Carney's argument if they think he's just talking about growth.TheBigBean said:
I thought you would like this bitrick_chasey said:You’re not looking at the figures if you think Brexit has had no impact.
Nor are you listening to business leaders up and down the country.
No one is saying that things like the war aren’t also having a huge effect, but I bet you Kwarteng would have been given more leeway by the markets if it hadn’t happened. The hole in the budget is roughly the hole Brexit has generated. Go figure.
Then again, he’d not have made it into government, which is the other bit people seem to forget.
Aside from the opportunity cost for the govt focusing on Brexit rather than the long term issues of low growth etc, it’s also given us the worst of the Tory party as government for the past 6 years.Mark Carney, the former governor of the Bank of England, takes a dimmer view. He has argued that Britain’s economy was 90% the size of Germany’s before Brexit but only 70% the size of it today.
Prof Jonathan Portes, an economist at King’s College London who is no fan of Brexit, has described this comparison as “nonsense” because it involves measuring the value of economies at prevailing exchange rates. This is not the normal method economists use to assess the relative performance of countries, because comparisons are heavily influenced by movements in currencies. The pound, for example, is almost 10% higher than it was during a recent trough against the US dollar, but that doesn’t mean the UK economy has grown by almost 10% relative to the American economy in the past month.
Anyway, the fact Britain has no prospect in current official forecasts to reach pre-pandemic earnings is hardly a ringing endorsement of the state of the place.0 -
If you read the report it says that Brexit has not had much impact either way - not no impact. And as it mentions, definitely less impact than those with predetermined views have tried to claimrick_chasey said:You’re not looking at the figures if you think Brexit has had no impact.
Nor are you listening to business leaders up and down the country.
No one is saying that things like the war aren’t also having a huge effect, but I bet you Kwarteng would have been given more leeway by the markets if it hadn’t happened. The hole in the budget is roughly the hole Brexit has generated. Go figure.
Then again, he’d not have made it into government, which is the other bit people seem to forget.
Aside from the opportunity cost for the govt focusing on Brexit rather than the long term issues of low growth etc, it’s also given us the worst of the Tory party as government for the past 6 years.
"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
All the official publications say it has?
I mean, that lot also criticise the OBR analysis, so who do you want to believe?
https://www.briefingsforbritain.co.uk/the-obr-again-makes-unsupportable-claims-about-brexit/0 -
I know who you want to believe. Quote again from above:rick_chasey said:All the official publications say it has?
I mean, that lot also criticise the OBR analysis, so who do you want to believe?
https://www.briefingsforbritain.co.uk/the-obr-again-makes-unsupportable-claims-about-brexit/
Or is this a classic case of confirmation bias, where someone starts with a preconceived view and then finds evidence to back up their argument? As in: I always said Brexit would be a disaster; the economy is in a bad way; Brexit is to blame and here’s the proof.'
That's you, that is. In case you hadn't noticed...
Point is, its not that big an issue. There are more worthy candidates for your undoubtedly impressive complaining abilities. As I've said before, I think we need to let this thread have a dignified and humane death "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
If we want to argue over which source is better than that’s fine but I think the OBR is as good a measuring stick as any, wouldn’t you say?
It’s not for nothing that’s what Kwarteng got banged for: for not using their analysis0 -
The economy is 4-5% smaller than it would have been without Brexit. That equated to roughly £50bn (and growing) of lost Govt revenue every year. Truss/Kwarteng blew the markets apart with how radical their plan was to increase the trend level of growth to what we had pre-Brexit.Stevo_666 said:
If you read the report it says that Brexit has not had much impact either way - not no impact. And as it mentions, definitely less impact than those with predetermined views have tried to claimrick_chasey said:You’re not looking at the figures if you think Brexit has had no impact.
Nor are you listening to business leaders up and down the country.
No one is saying that things like the war aren’t also having a huge effect, but I bet you Kwarteng would have been given more leeway by the markets if it hadn’t happened. The hole in the budget is roughly the hole Brexit has generated. Go figure.
Then again, he’d not have made it into government, which is the other bit people seem to forget.
Aside from the opportunity cost for the govt focusing on Brexit rather than the long term issues of low growth etc, it’s also given us the worst of the Tory party as government for the past 6 years.
Brexit was always a political project that came with an economic cost deemed worth paying.
Economically it was always a stupid but fascinating policy to wrench a modern integrated economy out of the world's largest trade bloc. In many ways the perpetrators got lucky with Covid and Ukraine. What is interesting is that the skills shortage is looking like the biggest negative impact on the economy0 -
There would appear to be way too much attention being paid to an opinion piece.
The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0
