BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴
Comments
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reversing Brexit will just postpone the day of reckoning.briantrumpet said:Guy Hands, a long-time Conservative supporter and the founder of the investment firm Terra Firma, has told BBC Radio 4 listeners that the UK economy is “frankly doomed”.
He warned that Britons will face steadily increasing taxes, steadily decreasing social services, higher interest rates and the need for a “bailout from the IMF” in the long term if the next Tory leader doesn’t renegotiate the Brexit deal.
He said that Britain was on track to become the “sick man of Europe”.
That would be fun.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2022/oct/24/uk-politics-live-rishi-sunak-penny-mordaunt-boris-johnson-withdrawal-nominations-deadline-tory-leadership-contest-race
Look at the squealing to find a bare minimum £40bn to get us to the end of this Parliament0 -
Decade of under investment is beginning to bite.
The good news is it's still really warm. Every warm day reduces the gov't liabilities by what, £500m?0 -
decades of overspending are beginning to biterick_chasey said:Decade of under investment is beginning to bite.
The good news is it's still really warm. Every warm day reduces the gov't liabilities by what, £500m?0 -
With the level austerity Britain had? Tempted to tell you to f off with that line.surrey_commuter said:
decades of overspending are beginning to biterick_chasey said:Decade of under investment is beginning to bite.
The good news is it's still really warm. Every warm day reduces the gov't liabilities by what, £500m?
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we are still living beyond our means, hang around and you will see real austerity.rick_chasey said:
With the level austerity Britain had? Tempted to tell you to f off with that line.surrey_commuter said:
decades of overspending are beginning to biterick_chasey said:Decade of under investment is beginning to bite.
The good news is it's still really warm. Every warm day reduces the gov't liabilities by what, £500m?0 -
Decades of underinvestment and undertaxing are beginning to bite then.0
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yepsurrey_commuter said:
we are still living beyond our means, hang around and you will see real austerity.rick_chasey said:
With the level austerity Britain had? Tempted to tell you to f off with that line.surrey_commuter said:
decades of overspending are beginning to biterick_chasey said:Decade of under investment is beginning to bite.
The good news is it's still really warm. Every warm day reduces the gov't liabilities by what, £500m?
the uk has been running on empty a long time
the per capita gdp acceleration that slowly picked up from the 70s was fuelled by multiple factors, all of which are pretty much exhausted
joined eu - left it
north sea oil/gas - way below the peak, money spent
public utilities - sold off, money spent
council housing - sold off, money spent
cost of pubic services driven up through a combination of outsourcing, de facto privatisation, pfi etc., combined with the bureaucratic dead weight to 'manage' the torrent of public money slurped up by the eager beneficiaries
on top of that, the revolving door of management consultancies employed to invent new organizational structures and systems in the insane expectation that slicing a shrinking pie a different way will somehow make it go further
limited natural resources, many unexploitable due to cost/pollution/nimbyism
switch to services was ok for a while, but that's over, combination of offshoring and technology
uk manufacturing weak in the face of lower-cost production, especially china
on the flip side the flood of low-cost offshore tat helped maintain living standards for many even while their income stagnated
the 2008 crash was the final straw, the uk still hasn't recovered
we produce too little, we spend too much
the party is over, time for a long painful hangover
my bike - faster than god's and twice as shiny0 -
The amount of people who need in-work benefits is ridiculous - it's welfare for businesses.0
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it is absolutely insane that the Govt subsidises wages for Tescokingstongraham said:The amount of people who need in-work benefits is ridiculous - it's welfare for businesses.
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In general I agree with you but think the mega trend that is very hard to buck is that this is what reality now looks like in the developed world. As you say any improvements in the overall standard of living will be driven by tech.sungod said:
yepsurrey_commuter said:
we are still living beyond our means, hang around and you will see real austerity.rick_chasey said:
With the level austerity Britain had? Tempted to tell you to f off with that line.surrey_commuter said:
decades of overspending are beginning to biterick_chasey said:Decade of under investment is beginning to bite.
The good news is it's still really warm. Every warm day reduces the gov't liabilities by what, £500m?
the uk has been running on empty a long time
the per capita gdp acceleration that slowly picked up from the 70s was fuelled by multiple factors, all of which are pretty much exhausted
joined eu - left it
north sea oil/gas - way below the peak, money spent
public utilities - sold off, money spent
council housing - sold off, money spent
cost of pubic services driven up through a combination of outsourcing, de facto privatisation, pfi etc., combined with the bureaucratic dead weight to 'manage' the torrent of public money slurped up by the eager beneficiaries
on top of that, the revolving door of management consultancies employed to invent new organizational structures and systems in the insane expectation that slicing a shrinking pie a different way will somehow make it go further
limited natural resources, many unexploitable due to cost/pollution/nimbyism
switch to services was ok for a while, but that's over, combination of offshoring and technology
uk manufacturing weak in the face of lower-cost production, especially china
on the flip side the flood of low-cost offshore tat helped maintain living standards for many even while their income stagnated
the 2008 crash was the final straw, the uk still hasn't recovered
we produce too little, we spend too much
the party is over, time for a long painful hangover
Like with Brexit until the reality is accepted it will be impossible to formulate policies to make the best of the situation.0 -
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The problem if we rejoined is that we wouldn't have as big a voice as we did when we left. Although I suspect the EU would quite like to have us back to show other members how bad an idea leaving would be. To be honest I'd settle for us to get some formal arrangement without fully rejoining. Sample size on that poll makes it fairly meaningless.0
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Pross said:
The problem if we rejoined is that we wouldn't have as big a voice as we did when we left. Although I suspect the EU would quite like to have us back to show other members how bad an idea leaving would be. To be honest I'd settle for us to get some formal arrangement without fully rejoining. Sample size on that poll makes it fairly meaningless.
Agree with all of that. But as a rough indicator of lessening resistance to the concept of the EU (and maybe increasing acceptance of its benefits), it's not without interest. I suppose one could almost call the shitshow of Brexit a Brexit benefit, as people have twigged that the biggest problems never were to do with the EU, and the economic benefits of co-operation are being illustrated plainly.0 -
I really think that you are other rejoiners are going to have to reconcile yourself to the fact that it will not happen in your lifetime. I think this needs to be accepted so that we can move forwards with strengthening our relationship with the EU.briantrumpet said:Pross said:The problem if we rejoined is that we wouldn't have as big a voice as we did when we left. Although I suspect the EU would quite like to have us back to show other members how bad an idea leaving would be. To be honest I'd settle for us to get some formal arrangement without fully rejoining. Sample size on that poll makes it fairly meaningless.
Agree with all of that. But as a rough indicator of lessening resistance to the concept of the EU (and maybe increasing acceptance of its benefits), it's not without interest. I suppose one could almost call the shitshow of Brexit a Brexit benefit, as people have twigged that the biggest problems never were to do with the EU, and the economic benefits of co-operation are being illustrated plainly.
Brexiteers don't accept that we have left but I suspect the reality is that they mirror your hopes with their fears that rejoining is a possibility.1 -
surrey_commuter said:
I really think that you are other rejoiners are going to have to reconcile yourself to the fact that it will not happen in your lifetime. I think this needs to be accepted so that we can move forwards with strengthening our relationship with the EU.briantrumpet said:Pross said:The problem if we rejoined is that we wouldn't have as big a voice as we did when we left. Although I suspect the EU would quite like to have us back to show other members how bad an idea leaving would be. To be honest I'd settle for us to get some formal arrangement without fully rejoining. Sample size on that poll makes it fairly meaningless.
Agree with all of that. But as a rough indicator of lessening resistance to the concept of the EU (and maybe increasing acceptance of its benefits), it's not without interest. I suppose one could almost call the shitshow of Brexit a Brexit benefit, as people have twigged that the biggest problems never were to do with the EU, and the economic benefits of co-operation are being illustrated plainly.
Brexiteers don't accept that we have left but I suspect the reality is that they mirror your hopes with their fears that rejoining is a possibility.
I'd make do with SM & CU in my lifetime. Can't see there being an appetite for €, which I think would be a precondition. And in any case, can't see the EU wanting the UK back in any time soon, given the recent history, without preconditions so stringent that the UK wouldn't accept. The fvck-up was leaving such a good deal in the first place: if you wanted to imagine a 'best of both worlds' arrangement, it was what we had.0 -
Norway was always the best option but that is probably because it looks most like not leaving. I think that could happen relatively soon. Once it becomes apparent that raising long term growth is next to impossible then the only easy option will become a bigger and bigger elephant in the room.briantrumpet said:surrey_commuter said:
I really think that you are other rejoiners are going to have to reconcile yourself to the fact that it will not happen in your lifetime. I think this needs to be accepted so that we can move forwards with strengthening our relationship with the EU.briantrumpet said:Pross said:The problem if we rejoined is that we wouldn't have as big a voice as we did when we left. Although I suspect the EU would quite like to have us back to show other members how bad an idea leaving would be. To be honest I'd settle for us to get some formal arrangement without fully rejoining. Sample size on that poll makes it fairly meaningless.
Agree with all of that. But as a rough indicator of lessening resistance to the concept of the EU (and maybe increasing acceptance of its benefits), it's not without interest. I suppose one could almost call the shitshow of Brexit a Brexit benefit, as people have twigged that the biggest problems never were to do with the EU, and the economic benefits of co-operation are being illustrated plainly.
Brexiteers don't accept that we have left but I suspect the reality is that they mirror your hopes with their fears that rejoining is a possibility.
I'd make do with SM & CU in my lifetime. Can't see there being an appetite for €, which I think would be a precondition. And in any case, can't see the EU wanting the UK back in any time soon, given the recent history, without preconditions so stringent that the UK wouldn't accept. The fvck-up was leaving such a good deal in the first place: if you wanted to imagine a 'best of both worlds' arrangement, it was what we had.
Mark Carney's quote of UK economy going from 90% to 70% of Germany is so staggering that it is barely believable and as more come out the noise will get louder0 -
How rabid a Brexiteer was Sunak? Did he actively campaign for it or just vote for it? If the latter then hopefully he'll go some way towards softening things (if allowed).0
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2% compounded over 6 years...surrey_commuter said:
Norway was always the best option but that is probably because it looks most like not leaving. I think that could happen relatively soon. Once it becomes apparent that raising long term growth is next to impossible then the only easy option will become a bigger and bigger elephant in the room.briantrumpet said:surrey_commuter said:
I really think that you are other rejoiners are going to have to reconcile yourself to the fact that it will not happen in your lifetime. I think this needs to be accepted so that we can move forwards with strengthening our relationship with the EU.briantrumpet said:Pross said:The problem if we rejoined is that we wouldn't have as big a voice as we did when we left. Although I suspect the EU would quite like to have us back to show other members how bad an idea leaving would be. To be honest I'd settle for us to get some formal arrangement without fully rejoining. Sample size on that poll makes it fairly meaningless.
Agree with all of that. But as a rough indicator of lessening resistance to the concept of the EU (and maybe increasing acceptance of its benefits), it's not without interest. I suppose one could almost call the shitshow of Brexit a Brexit benefit, as people have twigged that the biggest problems never were to do with the EU, and the economic benefits of co-operation are being illustrated plainly.
Brexiteers don't accept that we have left but I suspect the reality is that they mirror your hopes with their fears that rejoining is a possibility.
I'd make do with SM & CU in my lifetime. Can't see there being an appetite for €, which I think would be a precondition. And in any case, can't see the EU wanting the UK back in any time soon, given the recent history, without preconditions so stringent that the UK wouldn't accept. The fvck-up was leaving such a good deal in the first place: if you wanted to imagine a 'best of both worlds' arrangement, it was what we had.
Mark Carney's quote of UK economy going from 90% to 70% of Germany is so staggering that it is barely believable and as more come out the noise will get louder
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On what basis is that alleged change in relative sizes of the UK and German economies measured?surrey_commuter said:
Norway was always the best option but that is probably because it looks most like not leaving. I think that could happen relatively soon. Once it becomes apparent that raising long term growth is next to impossible then the only easy option will become a bigger and bigger elephant in the room.briantrumpet said:surrey_commuter said:
I really think that you are other rejoiners are going to have to reconcile yourself to the fact that it will not happen in your lifetime. I think this needs to be accepted so that we can move forwards with strengthening our relationship with the EU.briantrumpet said:Pross said:The problem if we rejoined is that we wouldn't have as big a voice as we did when we left. Although I suspect the EU would quite like to have us back to show other members how bad an idea leaving would be. To be honest I'd settle for us to get some formal arrangement without fully rejoining. Sample size on that poll makes it fairly meaningless.
Agree with all of that. But as a rough indicator of lessening resistance to the concept of the EU (and maybe increasing acceptance of its benefits), it's not without interest. I suppose one could almost call the shitshow of Brexit a Brexit benefit, as people have twigged that the biggest problems never were to do with the EU, and the economic benefits of co-operation are being illustrated plainly.
Brexiteers don't accept that we have left but I suspect the reality is that they mirror your hopes with their fears that rejoining is a possibility.
I'd make do with SM & CU in my lifetime. Can't see there being an appetite for €, which I think would be a precondition. And in any case, can't see the EU wanting the UK back in any time soon, given the recent history, without preconditions so stringent that the UK wouldn't accept. The fvck-up was leaving such a good deal in the first place: if you wanted to imagine a 'best of both worlds' arrangement, it was what we had.
Mark Carney's quote of UK economy going from 90% to 70% of Germany is so staggering that it is barely believable and as more come out the noise will get louder
"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
The comparison includes the change in EUR/GBP exchange rate, doubtless cherry-picked to be the highest immediately pre-referendum to the lowest in the Truss era.Stevo_666 said:
On what basis is that alleged change in relative sizes of the UK and German economies measured?surrey_commuter said:
Norway was always the best option but that is probably because it looks most like not leaving. I think that could happen relatively soon. Once it becomes apparent that raising long term growth is next to impossible then the only easy option will become a bigger and bigger elephant in the room.briantrumpet said:surrey_commuter said:
I really think that you are other rejoiners are going to have to reconcile yourself to the fact that it will not happen in your lifetime. I think this needs to be accepted so that we can move forwards with strengthening our relationship with the EU.briantrumpet said:Pross said:The problem if we rejoined is that we wouldn't have as big a voice as we did when we left. Although I suspect the EU would quite like to have us back to show other members how bad an idea leaving would be. To be honest I'd settle for us to get some formal arrangement without fully rejoining. Sample size on that poll makes it fairly meaningless.
Agree with all of that. But as a rough indicator of lessening resistance to the concept of the EU (and maybe increasing acceptance of its benefits), it's not without interest. I suppose one could almost call the shitshow of Brexit a Brexit benefit, as people have twigged that the biggest problems never were to do with the EU, and the economic benefits of co-operation are being illustrated plainly.
Brexiteers don't accept that we have left but I suspect the reality is that they mirror your hopes with their fears that rejoining is a possibility.
I'd make do with SM & CU in my lifetime. Can't see there being an appetite for €, which I think would be a precondition. And in any case, can't see the EU wanting the UK back in any time soon, given the recent history, without preconditions so stringent that the UK wouldn't accept. The fvck-up was leaving such a good deal in the first place: if you wanted to imagine a 'best of both worlds' arrangement, it was what we had.
Mark Carney's quote of UK economy going from 90% to 70% of Germany is so staggering that it is barely believable and as more come out the noise will get louder1 -
*alleged* lol mate you can look it upStevo_666 said:
On what basis is that alleged change in relative sizes of the UK and German economies measured?surrey_commuter said:
Norway was always the best option but that is probably because it looks most like not leaving. I think that could happen relatively soon. Once it becomes apparent that raising long term growth is next to impossible then the only easy option will become a bigger and bigger elephant in the room.briantrumpet said:surrey_commuter said:
I really think that you are other rejoiners are going to have to reconcile yourself to the fact that it will not happen in your lifetime. I think this needs to be accepted so that we can move forwards with strengthening our relationship with the EU.briantrumpet said:Pross said:The problem if we rejoined is that we wouldn't have as big a voice as we did when we left. Although I suspect the EU would quite like to have us back to show other members how bad an idea leaving would be. To be honest I'd settle for us to get some formal arrangement without fully rejoining. Sample size on that poll makes it fairly meaningless.
Agree with all of that. But as a rough indicator of lessening resistance to the concept of the EU (and maybe increasing acceptance of its benefits), it's not without interest. I suppose one could almost call the shitshow of Brexit a Brexit benefit, as people have twigged that the biggest problems never were to do with the EU, and the economic benefits of co-operation are being illustrated plainly.
Brexiteers don't accept that we have left but I suspect the reality is that they mirror your hopes with their fears that rejoining is a possibility.
I'd make do with SM & CU in my lifetime. Can't see there being an appetite for €, which I think would be a precondition. And in any case, can't see the EU wanting the UK back in any time soon, given the recent history, without preconditions so stringent that the UK wouldn't accept. The fvck-up was leaving such a good deal in the first place: if you wanted to imagine a 'best of both worlds' arrangement, it was what we had.
Mark Carney's quote of UK economy going from 90% to 70% of Germany is so staggering that it is barely believable and as more come out the noise will get louder
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Have a look at these GDP stats.
https://statista.com/statistics/959301/gdp-of-europes-biggest-economies/
Looking at 2016 vs 2021 it goes from approx 78.7% to 75.4%. Most of which can probably be accounted for by the exchange rate movements (measured in USD).
Sorry, but the claim is Eurobollox."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
And as SC said, 'barely believable'. Now we know why. And yet you swallowed it hook line and sinker, because you wanted to believe it
"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Carney's UK figures look a bit dodgy. Per ONS, GDP (indexed to 100 in 2019 and excluding the impact of inflation / GDP deflator) in Jan 2016 was 93.1; the most recent (Aug 2022) is 100.1.
So the UK economy only increasing in size from £2.10t to £2.17t doesn't look quite right as that's circa 3% absolute growth when there is 7% real growth plus 6 years of inflation that should be accounted for.0 -
What surprises me the most is the 90% figure as that would have made us richer on a per capita basis.rick_chasey said:
*alleged* lol mate you can look it upStevo_666 said:
On what basis is that alleged change in relative sizes of the UK and German economies measured?surrey_commuter said:
Norway was always the best option but that is probably because it looks most like not leaving. I think that could happen relatively soon. Once it becomes apparent that raising long term growth is next to impossible then the only easy option will become a bigger and bigger elephant in the room.briantrumpet said:surrey_commuter said:
I really think that you are other rejoiners are going to have to reconcile yourself to the fact that it will not happen in your lifetime. I think this needs to be accepted so that we can move forwards with strengthening our relationship with the EU.briantrumpet said:Pross said:The problem if we rejoined is that we wouldn't have as big a voice as we did when we left. Although I suspect the EU would quite like to have us back to show other members how bad an idea leaving would be. To be honest I'd settle for us to get some formal arrangement without fully rejoining. Sample size on that poll makes it fairly meaningless.
Agree with all of that. But as a rough indicator of lessening resistance to the concept of the EU (and maybe increasing acceptance of its benefits), it's not without interest. I suppose one could almost call the shitshow of Brexit a Brexit benefit, as people have twigged that the biggest problems never were to do with the EU, and the economic benefits of co-operation are being illustrated plainly.
Brexiteers don't accept that we have left but I suspect the reality is that they mirror your hopes with their fears that rejoining is a possibility.
I'd make do with SM & CU in my lifetime. Can't see there being an appetite for €, which I think would be a precondition. And in any case, can't see the EU wanting the UK back in any time soon, given the recent history, without preconditions so stringent that the UK wouldn't accept. The fvck-up was leaving such a good deal in the first place: if you wanted to imagine a 'best of both worlds' arrangement, it was what we had.
Mark Carney's quote of UK economy going from 90% to 70% of Germany is so staggering that it is barely believable and as more come out the noise will get louder
I would have measured in $$$ in 2015 before he put it in the manifesto0 -
I suppose this is the risk of getting a lot of your info from Twitterati with biases and/or agendas, no matter how superficially knowledgeable or qualified. Always best to fact check that sort of thing."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0
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that does not get to 20%rick_chasey said:
2% compounded over 6 years...surrey_commuter said:
Norway was always the best option but that is probably because it looks most like not leaving. I think that could happen relatively soon. Once it becomes apparent that raising long term growth is next to impossible then the only easy option will become a bigger and bigger elephant in the room.briantrumpet said:surrey_commuter said:
I really think that you are other rejoiners are going to have to reconcile yourself to the fact that it will not happen in your lifetime. I think this needs to be accepted so that we can move forwards with strengthening our relationship with the EU.briantrumpet said:Pross said:The problem if we rejoined is that we wouldn't have as big a voice as we did when we left. Although I suspect the EU would quite like to have us back to show other members how bad an idea leaving would be. To be honest I'd settle for us to get some formal arrangement without fully rejoining. Sample size on that poll makes it fairly meaningless.
Agree with all of that. But as a rough indicator of lessening resistance to the concept of the EU (and maybe increasing acceptance of its benefits), it's not without interest. I suppose one could almost call the shitshow of Brexit a Brexit benefit, as people have twigged that the biggest problems never were to do with the EU, and the economic benefits of co-operation are being illustrated plainly.
Brexiteers don't accept that we have left but I suspect the reality is that they mirror your hopes with their fears that rejoining is a possibility.
I'd make do with SM & CU in my lifetime. Can't see there being an appetite for €, which I think would be a precondition. And in any case, can't see the EU wanting the UK back in any time soon, given the recent history, without preconditions so stringent that the UK wouldn't accept. The fvck-up was leaving such a good deal in the first place: if you wanted to imagine a 'best of both worlds' arrangement, it was what we had.
Mark Carney's quote of UK economy going from 90% to 70% of Germany is so staggering that it is barely believable and as more come out the noise will get louder1 -
The numbers smell like bullsh!t to me. Use of the word "now" seems suspect.0
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it is annoying becuase there will be a story to tell but it will get lost in the dodgy statskingstongraham said:The numbers smell like bullsh!t to me. Use of the word "now" seems suspect.
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Whatever format the stats are given, people will moan.
This is the one thing I have learned on this forum, that to even mention a stat is to draw the discussion away from the argument the stats are there to support ( or not), and instead to the approach of measurement.
People like to see the trees to avoid looking at the wood.
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