BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴
Comments
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Not sure why Stevo is pretending not to understand the article he linked.1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
It did have a pretty graph on it.rjsterry said:Not sure why Stevo is pretending not to understand the article he linked.
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There are of course two schools of thoughtrick_chasey said:*Customs checks on the UK border are exactly what people were asking for when they were asking to leave the customs union.*
1) people knew exactly what they were voting for.
2) people had not even heard of SM/CU so had no idea what they were voting for1 -
Ignorance is not an excuse etcsurrey_commuter said:
There are of course two schools of thoughtrick_chasey said:*Customs checks on the UK border are exactly what people were asking for when they were asking to leave the customs union.*
1) people knew exactly what they were voting for.
2) people had not even heard of SM/CU so had no idea what they were voting for0 -
✌🏻✌🏻
It’s sad for them.
But also, your lot shouldn’t have been rabid Brexiter ya idiots.
Sad, but not in a way that elicits waves of sympathy.0 -
It is only right that the costs of Brexit are paid by those who wanted it.rick_chasey said:
✌🏻✌🏻
It’s sad for them.
But also, your lot shouldn’t have been rabid Brexiter ya idiots.
Sad, but not in a way that elicits waves of sympathy.0 -
But why do they now need the money? Surely everything is better now we are freed from the shackles of Europe.surrey_commuter said:
It is only right that the costs of Brexit are paid by those who wanted it.rick_chasey said:
✌🏻✌🏻
It’s sad for them.
But also, your lot shouldn’t have been rabid Brexiter ya idiots.
Sad, but not in a way that elicits waves of sympathy.0 -
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Have you gone over to the dark side?rick_chasey said:Tories don’t care about levelling up.
UK was net contributor to EU so no excuse.
Have you any idea of the scale of lost GDP/tax or of the increased costs of replicating what the EU used to do for us?
We have to save tens of billions of pounds a year.0 -
No more than the data anyone else presented. They just chose ones that suited their view.rick_chasey said:Stevo you know the graphs just represent the data collected and they aren’t the truth right?
Are you really gonna sit here and say it’s not impacting the export industry seriously when industry leaders are saying exactly that?
Argue the dots on the graph if you want. You're in fantasy land if you think it isn't negatively affecting the economy. All economic logic and sense would say so, and the data says so unless you really fight hard to cherry pick it.
The BoE, OFS, OBR, ONS, IFS all say it is a real drag on the economy and a problem for exporters. Just get over it.
The claim was that 1/3 of UK exporters have disappeared and I have presented evidence to show that is not case. There is clearly reasonable doubt."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Clear, but wrong.kingstongraham said:
As your link clearly says, UK companies that sold to the EU before 2021 were not considered "exporters". Quote: "As a result of the end of the transition period changing the nature of goods and service movements between Great Britain and the EU so that they became exports, the Exporter Monitor data showed a near-doubling of the number of exporters".Stevo_666 said:
In a graph that shows numbers of UK exporters, a drop in numbers of those exporters would be reflected in the graph. Very obvious. Your denial of what is plain and clear is very good - have you considered a job as a Russian government spokesman?kingstongraham said:
No it wouldn't.Stevo_666 said:
The graph would show a drop in numbers.kingstongraham said:
By definition they would not appear in those numbers.Stevo_666 said:
I'm talking about the claimed disappearance of 1/3 of all British exporters in the Tweet linked by Brian. Can you show me any reference to that in the report or any data in the report that remotely supports that?surrey_commuter said:
as I am in a good moodStevo_666 said:
Show me where it supports in any way the alleged disappearance of one third of UK exporters. (Hint: look at the graphs in the section labelled 'Counts of UK exporters' and also 'Exporter revenue' where you will see nothing of the sort).surrey_commuter said:
Patronising? Do you know what it means?😀Stevo_666 said:
I did, thanks. What's your point, apart from trying to be patronising?surrey_commuter said:
you should read that articleStevo_666 said:
Data from the institute of Export and International Trade says otherwise rather clearly.briantrumpet said:ddraver said:Surprised Pikachu face...not
Cheer up... too late to do anything about it now.
Except to say "Told you so."
https://export.org.uk/news/594836/New-monitor-shows-boost-in-number-of-UK-exporters.htm
So cheer up, as you say.
Read paras 3 and 4 and you will see the article does not support your argument
Have you read the report?
Even so, the picture overall is mixed. As a result of the end of the transition period changing the nature of goods and service movements between Great Britain and the EU so that they became exports, the Exporter Monitor data showed a near-doubling of the number of exporters, and accordingly, their revenues and their employees in February 2021.
This is still working through the data. For example, the increases in January this year compare to major drops in the numbers of exporters in January 2021 as a result of Brexit uncertainty; and while the increase in January this year is welcome, it is insufficient in itself to reverse a downward trend evident since April 2021.
The article you linked to explains why.
So if a company shipped to the EU in 2020, and they stopped in 2021, they would not ever have been considered as "exporters" for that graph.
Therefore, that decline would have happened to numbers that are not on that graph.
Hope that explains clearly enough!
Of course the graph jumps up when those businesses are reclassified as exporters. But after that jump, the numbers are pretty steady. There is no collapse of 1/3 in the numbers.
My point stands.
"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Exports are not Exporters. Exporters can go up while Exports go down. Obviously.- Genesis Croix de Fer
- Dolan Tuono0 -
Bloody Quote system."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0
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There is another graph in the report (figure A3) showing export revenues which is similarly non apocalyptic - sorry to disappoint.pangolin said:Exports are not Exporters. Exporters can go up while Exports go down. Obviously.
"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Only if you ignore the words in the actual article accompanying that graph. Or are you saying that the author themselves doesn't understand the data they've published?Stevo_666 said:
Clear, but wrong.kingstongraham said:
As your link clearly says, UK companies that sold to the EU before 2021 were not considered "exporters". Quote: "As a result of the end of the transition period changing the nature of goods and service movements between Great Britain and the EU so that they became exports, the Exporter Monitor data showed a near-doubling of the number of exporters".Stevo_666 said:
In a graph that shows numbers of UK exporters, a drop in numbers of those exporters would be reflected in the graph. Very obvious. Your denial of what is plain and clear is very good - have you considered a job as a Russian government spokesman?kingstongraham said:
No it wouldn't.Stevo_666 said:
The graph would show a drop in numbers.kingstongraham said:
By definition they would not appear in those numbers.Stevo_666 said:
I'm talking about the claimed disappearance of 1/3 of all British exporters in the Tweet linked by Brian. Can you show me any reference to that in the report or any data in the report that remotely supports that?surrey_commuter said:
as I am in a good moodStevo_666 said:
Show me where it supports in any way the alleged disappearance of one third of UK exporters. (Hint: look at the graphs in the section labelled 'Counts of UK exporters' and also 'Exporter revenue' where you will see nothing of the sort).surrey_commuter said:
Patronising? Do you know what it means?😀Stevo_666 said:
I did, thanks. What's your point, apart from trying to be patronising?surrey_commuter said:
you should read that articleStevo_666 said:
Data from the institute of Export and International Trade says otherwise rather clearly.briantrumpet said:ddraver said:Surprised Pikachu face...not
Cheer up... too late to do anything about it now.
Except to say "Told you so."
https://export.org.uk/news/594836/New-monitor-shows-boost-in-number-of-UK-exporters.htm
So cheer up, as you say.
Read paras 3 and 4 and you will see the article does not support your argument
Have you read the report?
Even so, the picture overall is mixed. As a result of the end of the transition period changing the nature of goods and service movements between Great Britain and the EU so that they became exports, the Exporter Monitor data showed a near-doubling of the number of exporters, and accordingly, their revenues and their employees in February 2021.
This is still working through the data. For example, the increases in January this year compare to major drops in the numbers of exporters in January 2021 as a result of Brexit uncertainty; and while the increase in January this year is welcome, it is insufficient in itself to reverse a downward trend evident since April 2021.
The article you linked to explains why.
So if a company shipped to the EU in 2020, and they stopped in 2021, they would not ever have been considered as "exporters" for that graph.
Therefore, that decline would have happened to numbers that are not on that graph.
Hope that explains clearly enough!
Of course the graph jumps up when those businesses are reclassified as exporters. But after that jump, the numbers are pretty steady. There is no collapse of 1/3 in the numbers.
My point stands.
1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
Maybe it's the other article you need to reread then.Stevo_666 said:
Clear, but wrong.kingstongraham said:
As your link clearly says, UK companies that sold to the EU before 2021 were not considered "exporters". Quote: "As a result of the end of the transition period changing the nature of goods and service movements between Great Britain and the EU so that they became exports, the Exporter Monitor data showed a near-doubling of the number of exporters".Stevo_666 said:
In a graph that shows numbers of UK exporters, a drop in numbers of those exporters would be reflected in the graph. Very obvious. Your denial of what is plain and clear is very good - have you considered a job as a Russian government spokesman?kingstongraham said:
No it wouldn't.Stevo_666 said:
The graph would show a drop in numbers.kingstongraham said:
By definition they would not appear in those numbers.Stevo_666 said:
I'm talking about the claimed disappearance of 1/3 of all British exporters in the Tweet linked by Brian. Can you show me any reference to that in the report or any data in the report that remotely supports that?surrey_commuter said:
as I am in a good moodStevo_666 said:
Show me where it supports in any way the alleged disappearance of one third of UK exporters. (Hint: look at the graphs in the section labelled 'Counts of UK exporters' and also 'Exporter revenue' where you will see nothing of the sort).surrey_commuter said:
Patronising? Do you know what it means?😀Stevo_666 said:
I did, thanks. What's your point, apart from trying to be patronising?surrey_commuter said:
you should read that articleStevo_666 said:
Data from the institute of Export and International Trade says otherwise rather clearly.briantrumpet said:ddraver said:Surprised Pikachu face...not
Cheer up... too late to do anything about it now.
Except to say "Told you so."
https://export.org.uk/news/594836/New-monitor-shows-boost-in-number-of-UK-exporters.htm
So cheer up, as you say.
Read paras 3 and 4 and you will see the article does not support your argument
Have you read the report?
Even so, the picture overall is mixed. As a result of the end of the transition period changing the nature of goods and service movements between Great Britain and the EU so that they became exports, the Exporter Monitor data showed a near-doubling of the number of exporters, and accordingly, their revenues and their employees in February 2021.
This is still working through the data. For example, the increases in January this year compare to major drops in the numbers of exporters in January 2021 as a result of Brexit uncertainty; and while the increase in January this year is welcome, it is insufficient in itself to reverse a downward trend evident since April 2021.
The article you linked to explains why.
So if a company shipped to the EU in 2020, and they stopped in 2021, they would not ever have been considered as "exporters" for that graph.
Therefore, that decline would have happened to numbers that are not on that graph.
Hope that explains clearly enough!
Of course the graph jumps up when those businesses are reclassified as exporters. But after that jump, the numbers are pretty steady. There is no collapse of 1/3 in the numbers.
My point stands.
The two are simply not contradictory.
There is no decline in that graph because the decline cited in the other article happened to firms who were NEVER ON THAT GRAPH IN THE FIRST PLACE.0 -
Lies, damned lies, and statistics.The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
Apart from the headline, I think the link stevo shared is a better use of statistics than the city am one.pblakeney said:Lies, damned lies, and statistics.
This is a similar story from that same source, but with more prominence given to the caveats. https://www.export.org.uk/news/598758/Sharp-fall-in-UK-exports-to-the-EU-in-January--but-ONS-urges-caution-when-interpreting-data-.htm0 -
I posted the ONS link upthread a while ago. It is full of significant caveats all of which were omitted from the FT article.kingstongraham said:
Apart from the headline, I think the link stevo shared is a better use of statistics than the city am one.pblakeney said:Lies, damned lies, and statistics.
This is a similar story from that same source, but with more prominence given to the caveats. https://www.export.org.uk/news/598758/Sharp-fall-in-UK-exports-to-the-EU-in-January--but-ONS-urges-caution-when-interpreting-data-.htm0 -
Point is that a skilled statistician can get any results they want so statistics can prove what you want, or nothing,kingstongraham said:
Apart from the headline, I think the link stevo shared is a better use of statistics than the city am one.pblakeney said:Lies, damned lies, and statistics.
The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
Sometimes, I just don't know what's happening anymore
“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0 -
You are not describing a skilled statistician.pblakeney said:
Point is that a skilled statistician can get any results they want so statistics can prove what you want, or nothing,kingstongraham said:
Apart from the headline, I think the link stevo shared is a better use of statistics than the city am one.pblakeney said:Lies, damned lies, and statistics.
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It is what people peddling lies would like you to think though.TheBigBean said:
You are not describing a skilled statistician.pblakeney said:
Point is that a skilled statistician can get any results they want so statistics can prove what you want, or nothing,kingstongraham said:
Apart from the headline, I think the link stevo shared is a better use of statistics than the city am one.pblakeney said:Lies, damned lies, and statistics.
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Skills can be used for good, evil, or deception.TheBigBean said:
You are not describing a skilled statistician.pblakeney said:
Point is that a skilled statistician can get any results they want so statistics can prove what you want, or nothing,kingstongraham said:
Apart from the headline, I think the link stevo shared is a better use of statistics than the city am one.pblakeney said:Lies, damned lies, and statistics.
The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
Sure. I think the people at ONS do a good job and are skilled statisticians. I do not think the reinterpretation by journalists should be confused with statistics.kingstongraham said:
It is what people peddling lies would like you to think though.TheBigBean said:
You are not describing a skilled statistician.pblakeney said:
Point is that a skilled statistician can get any results they want so statistics can prove what you want, or nothing,kingstongraham said:
Apart from the headline, I think the link stevo shared is a better use of statistics than the city am one.pblakeney said:Lies, damned lies, and statistics.
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Fair point, well made.TheBigBean said:
Sure. I the think the people at ONS do a good job and are skilled statisticians. I do not think the reinterpretation by journalists should be confused with statistics.kingstongraham said:
It is what people peddling lies would like you to think though.TheBigBean said:
You are not describing a skilled statistician.pblakeney said:
Point is that a skilled statistician can get any results they want so statistics can prove what you want, or nothing,kingstongraham said:
Apart from the headline, I think the link stevo shared is a better use of statistics than the city am one.pblakeney said:Lies, damned lies, and statistics.
I guess it is more a case of being wary of the use of statistics.
The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
But either way, the second article doesn't conflict with the first.1
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In 2023 after having good growth in 2022 due to quicker recovery from the pandemic. In total, UK growth for 2022 and 2023 is behind only US and Canada in the G7.briantrumpet said:Quick, someone find a graph to say it isn't so...
The FT has run with this story too.
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