BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴
Comments
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i believe the correct term is that he stepped in a johnsonbriantrumpet said:Real steaming Brexshit.
my bike - faster than god's and twice as shiny0 -
42% of exports now.and declining.surrey_commuter said:
So if it is not proximity why do we do circa 50% of our trade with our nearest neighbours who only make up 15% of the global economy.Stevo_666 said:
See my point above about how much(or little) of the world the EU comprises, economically speaking. Which was the main part of my original point.kingstongraham said:
world includes EU.Stevo_666 said:
If you look at what we have done with the new UK customs tariffs and our new trade agreements you should see that is moving in the right direction re rest of world.kingstongraham said:
Us keeping the same barriers to trade with the USA has no impact on whether we have in aggregate increased overall barriers to trade with the world outside the UK.Stevo_666 said:
We aren't increasing barriers to trade with the rest of the world, so what's your point here?kingstongraham said:
Not particularly relevant to a conversation about the impact of a policy to increase barriers to a different location.Stevo_666 said:
Regardless of preferential access, size of markets and potential are clearly relevant. For example, our trade with the US is very substantial - more than with any other country IIRC, but without preferential access.kingstongraham said:That argument doesn't make any sense unless there are major markets that the UK gets substantially more preferential access to than we did in the EU. As far as I know, German companies sell to global markets.
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-7851/
I believe EU membership made us take our eye off the global potential for trade. However I mentioned above about the trend of this percentage reducing - something that was happening before we left the EU.
The future global potential is encouraging."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Plz read the bolded bit 👍🏻👍🏻Stevo_666 said:
Read my posts above about services as you seem you be missing my point. You should be aware that the logistical aspects of shipping goods do not apply to our predominant sector.rick_chasey said:To give you some context, trade in goods and services with the US is only double trade in goods and services with the Netherlands
Also the NL figures are known to be skewed as a lot of product goes via that country.
0 -
Wht percentage does the UK make up?Stevo_666 said:
Thereabouts. I think it was 15 when we were a member state but clearly has shrunk after Brexit. Still, much smaller than the rest ofthe world whichever way you measure it, no?kingstongraham said:
I think you said 15%Stevo_666 said:
See my point above about how much(or little) of the world the EU comprises, economically speaking. Which was the main part of my original point.kingstongraham said:
world includes EU.Stevo_666 said:
If you look at what we have done with the new UK customs tariffs and our new trade agreements you should see that is moving in the right direction re rest of world.kingstongraham said:
Us keeping the same barriers to trade with the USA has no impact on whether we have in aggregate increased overall barriers to trade with the world outside the UK.Stevo_666 said:
We aren't increasing barriers to trade with the rest of the world, so what's your point here?kingstongraham said:
Not particularly relevant to a conversation about the impact of a policy to increase barriers to a different location.Stevo_666 said:
Regardless of preferential access, size of markets and potential are clearly relevant. For example, our trade with the US is very substantial - more than with any other country IIRC, but without preferential access.kingstongraham said:That argument doesn't make any sense unless there are major markets that the UK gets substantially more preferential access to than we did in the EU. As far as I know, German companies sell to global markets.
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Stevo_666 said:
A bit of context is needed sometimes. Nobody said it doesn't matter, but it is far from the be all and end all that the Brexit debate might lead some people to believe.rjsterry said:
Depends what you sell, but 1/7 is hardly trivial. But let's pretend the green bit doesn't matter.Stevo_666 said:
I'm waiting for the 2021 stats tbh. It is worth remembering that the City's main opportunities lie outside the EU, given that the EU only represents around 13% of the global economy (and shrinking). So will be interesting to see the overall, picture, while remembering that covid may also have a negative effect impact all round.kingstongraham said:
There must have been another quarter of results since that article - still holding up well?Stevo_666 said:
Edit: not according to the updated version of the source for that article.
It's a fascinating insight into the writing of these ONS reports to see the same thing being referenced to explain completely opposite movements.
Q1: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/articles/theimpactsofeuexitandcoronaviruscovid19onuktradeinservices/july2021Financial services have seen growth in exports to EU countries of £0.08 billion (1.4%) and a reduction in imports from EU countries by £0.57 billion (35.2%) in Quarter 1 2021 compared with Quarter 1 2019.
As part of the TCA, administrative barriers and limitations faced by EU and UK investors, service suppliers and business travellers are kept to a minimum. This may encourage trade in services and may have contributed to the growth in financial services exports to the EU.
Q2:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/articles/theimpactsofeuexitandcoronaviruscovid19onuktradeinservices/november2021In Quarter 2 (April to June) 2021, trade in financial services declined for both exports and imports by £1.5 billion (negative 9.7%) and £0.3 billion (negative 6.3%) respectively compared with Quarter 2 2019. Non-EU exports increased £0.5 billion (5.1%) and imports £0.01 billion (0.4%) since Quarter 2 2019, whereas EU exports and imports declined £2.0 billion (negative 30.6%) and £0.3 billion (negative 21.3%) respectively.
This fall in financial services trade with the EU is partly because of EU exit-related rule changes, with the UK-EU Trade and Co-operation Agreement (TCA) containing limited provision for access in financial services.
The other 6/7ths is a pretty significant, no?
So, what/where are/should we be targeting and how will we supply that market? We're already filling lots of services roles from abroad.
And do we really want to rely even more on services exports when that will just lead to more importing of labour to do all the other work.
So far we've given away market access to Australia in return for not very much, and... what else? If we really are aiming to refocus trade policy you'd hope to see something a bit more ambitious and specific.1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
3.4% of world exports of goods and services in May 2020 according to Wiki.kingstongraham said:
Wht percentage does the UK make up?Stevo_666 said:
Thereabouts. I think it was 15 when we were a member state but clearly has shrunk after Brexit. Still, much smaller than the rest ofthe world whichever way you measure it, no?kingstongraham said:
I think you said 15%Stevo_666 said:
See my point above about how much(or little) of the world the EU comprises, economically speaking. Which was the main part of my original point.kingstongraham said:
world includes EU.Stevo_666 said:
If you look at what we have done with the new UK customs tariffs and our new trade agreements you should see that is moving in the right direction re rest of world.kingstongraham said:
Us keeping the same barriers to trade with the USA has no impact on whether we have in aggregate increased overall barriers to trade with the world outside the UK.Stevo_666 said:
We aren't increasing barriers to trade with the rest of the world, so what's your point here?kingstongraham said:
Not particularly relevant to a conversation about the impact of a policy to increase barriers to a different location.Stevo_666 said:
Regardless of preferential access, size of markets and potential are clearly relevant. For example, our trade with the US is very substantial - more than with any other country IIRC, but without preferential access.kingstongraham said:That argument doesn't make any sense unless there are major markets that the UK gets substantially more preferential access to than we did in the EU. As far as I know, German companies sell to global markets.
Puts things into perspective.The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
Not really for me to say exactly what we should focus on specifically, but common sense applies re looking at the largest markets, those with higher growth potential and those where market share is lower.rjsterry said:Stevo_666 said:
A bit of context is needed sometimes. Nobody said it doesn't matter, but it is far from the be all and end all that the Brexit debate might lead some people to believe.rjsterry said:
Depends what you sell, but 1/7 is hardly trivial. But let's pretend the green bit doesn't matter.Stevo_666 said:
I'm waiting for the 2021 stats tbh. It is worth remembering that the City's main opportunities lie outside the EU, given that the EU only represents around 13% of the global economy (and shrinking). So will be interesting to see the overall, picture, while remembering that covid may also have a negative effect impact all round.kingstongraham said:
There must have been another quarter of results since that article - still holding up well?Stevo_666 said:
Edit: not according to the updated version of the source for that article.
It's a fascinating insight into the writing of these ONS reports to see the same thing being referenced to explain completely opposite movements.
Q1: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/articles/theimpactsofeuexitandcoronaviruscovid19onuktradeinservices/july2021Financial services have seen growth in exports to EU countries of £0.08 billion (1.4%) and a reduction in imports from EU countries by £0.57 billion (35.2%) in Quarter 1 2021 compared with Quarter 1 2019.
As part of the TCA, administrative barriers and limitations faced by EU and UK investors, service suppliers and business travellers are kept to a minimum. This may encourage trade in services and may have contributed to the growth in financial services exports to the EU.
Q2:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/articles/theimpactsofeuexitandcoronaviruscovid19onuktradeinservices/november2021In Quarter 2 (April to June) 2021, trade in financial services declined for both exports and imports by £1.5 billion (negative 9.7%) and £0.3 billion (negative 6.3%) respectively compared with Quarter 2 2019. Non-EU exports increased £0.5 billion (5.1%) and imports £0.01 billion (0.4%) since Quarter 2 2019, whereas EU exports and imports declined £2.0 billion (negative 30.6%) and £0.3 billion (negative 21.3%) respectively.
This fall in financial services trade with the EU is partly because of EU exit-related rule changes, with the UK-EU Trade and Co-operation Agreement (TCA) containing limited provision for access in financial services.
The other 6/7ths is a pretty significant, no?
So, what/where are/should we be targeting and how will we supply that market? We're already filling lots of services roles from abroad.
And do we really want to rely even more on services exports when that will just lead to more importing of labour to do all the other work.
So far we've given away market access to Australia in return for not very much, and... what else? If we really are aiming to refocus trade policy you'd hope to see something a bit more ambitious and specific.
Look at it this way (bit of a simplification but I believe the comparison is valid). If you were a global business and you had 2 market segments. The first one is approx 1/7th of the total market, is growing relatively slowly amd you already have a decent market share. The second is approx 6/7ths of the total market, growing faster than the first one and you have a lower market share. Which one would you focus on?
It's a pretty easy question to answer..."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Not sure how that is relevant when we are looking at export opportunities.pblakeney said:
3.4% of world exports of goods and services in May 2020 according to Wiki.kingstongraham said:
Wht percentage does the UK make up?Stevo_666 said:
Thereabouts. I think it was 15 when we were a member state but clearly has shrunk after Brexit. Still, much smaller than the rest ofthe world whichever way you measure it, no?kingstongraham said:
I think you said 15%Stevo_666 said:
See my point above about how much(or little) of the world the EU comprises, economically speaking. Which was the main part of my original point.kingstongraham said:
world includes EU.Stevo_666 said:
If you look at what we have done with the new UK customs tariffs and our new trade agreements you should see that is moving in the right direction re rest of world.kingstongraham said:
Us keeping the same barriers to trade with the USA has no impact on whether we have in aggregate increased overall barriers to trade with the world outside the UK.Stevo_666 said:
We aren't increasing barriers to trade with the rest of the world, so what's your point here?kingstongraham said:
Not particularly relevant to a conversation about the impact of a policy to increase barriers to a different location.Stevo_666 said:
Regardless of preferential access, size of markets and potential are clearly relevant. For example, our trade with the US is very substantial - more than with any other country IIRC, but without preferential access.kingstongraham said:That argument doesn't make any sense unless there are major markets that the UK gets substantially more preferential access to than we did in the EU. As far as I know, German companies sell to global markets.
Puts things into perspective."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Likewise.rick_chasey said:
Plz read the bolded bit 👍🏻👍🏻Stevo_666 said:
Read my posts above about services as you seem you be missing my point. You should be aware that the logistical aspects of shipping goods do not apply to our predominant sector.rick_chasey said:To give you some context, trade in goods and services with the US is only double trade in goods and services with the Netherlands
Also the NL figures are known to be skewed as a lot of product goes via that country.
"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Sure. I would imagine any business that wants to think of itself as global is already doing as you say and looking at these markets. Where a government can influence that is obviously in negotiating better access to those markets, which was a pretty big part of the Brexit prospectus. We're now 5 years on and if we really are interested in exploiting the advantages of being outside the EU we should at least have an overall strategy for this - specific sectors and countries that we want to prioritise. So far the only major deal we've done is to inhibit our access to one of our big markets and in the other column we have a few rollover deals which change nothing and the giveaway to Australian farmers. All of which suggests that the current lot aren't actually interested in pursuing this.Stevo_666 said:
Not really for me to say exactly what we should focus on specifically, but common sense applies re looking at the largest markets, those with higher growth potential and those where market share is lower.rjsterry said:Stevo_666 said:
A bit of context is needed sometimes. Nobody said it doesn't matter, but it is far from the be all and end all that the Brexit debate might lead some people to believe.rjsterry said:
Depends what you sell, but 1/7 is hardly trivial. But let's pretend the green bit doesn't matter.Stevo_666 said:
I'm waiting for the 2021 stats tbh. It is worth remembering that the City's main opportunities lie outside the EU, given that the EU only represents around 13% of the global economy (and shrinking). So will be interesting to see the overall, picture, while remembering that covid may also have a negative effect impact all round.kingstongraham said:
There must have been another quarter of results since that article - still holding up well?Stevo_666 said:
Edit: not according to the updated version of the source for that article.
It's a fascinating insight into the writing of these ONS reports to see the same thing being referenced to explain completely opposite movements.
Q1: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/articles/theimpactsofeuexitandcoronaviruscovid19onuktradeinservices/july2021Financial services have seen growth in exports to EU countries of £0.08 billion (1.4%) and a reduction in imports from EU countries by £0.57 billion (35.2%) in Quarter 1 2021 compared with Quarter 1 2019.
As part of the TCA, administrative barriers and limitations faced by EU and UK investors, service suppliers and business travellers are kept to a minimum. This may encourage trade in services and may have contributed to the growth in financial services exports to the EU.
Q2:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/articles/theimpactsofeuexitandcoronaviruscovid19onuktradeinservices/november2021In Quarter 2 (April to June) 2021, trade in financial services declined for both exports and imports by £1.5 billion (negative 9.7%) and £0.3 billion (negative 6.3%) respectively compared with Quarter 2 2019. Non-EU exports increased £0.5 billion (5.1%) and imports £0.01 billion (0.4%) since Quarter 2 2019, whereas EU exports and imports declined £2.0 billion (negative 30.6%) and £0.3 billion (negative 21.3%) respectively.
This fall in financial services trade with the EU is partly because of EU exit-related rule changes, with the UK-EU Trade and Co-operation Agreement (TCA) containing limited provision for access in financial services.
The other 6/7ths is a pretty significant, no?
So, what/where are/should we be targeting and how will we supply that market? We're already filling lots of services roles from abroad.
And do we really want to rely even more on services exports when that will just lead to more importing of labour to do all the other work.
So far we've given away market access to Australia in return for not very much, and... what else? If we really are aiming to refocus trade policy you'd hope to see something a bit more ambitious and specific.
Look at it this way (bit of a simplification but I believe the comparison is valid). If you were a global business and you had 2 market segments. The first one is approx 1/7th of the total market, is growing relatively slowly amd you already have a decent market share. The second is approx 6/7ths of the total market, growing faster than the first one and you have a lower market share. Which one would you focus on?
It's a pretty easy question to answer...1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
Shouldn't everyone in the UK concentrate on exporting to the 96.6% rather than concentrating on the 3.4%?Stevo_666 said:
Not sure how that is relevant when we are looking at export opportunities.pblakeney said:
3.4% of world exports of goods and services in May 2020 according to Wiki.kingstongraham said:
Wht percentage does the UK make up?Stevo_666 said:
Thereabouts. I think it was 15 when we were a member state but clearly has shrunk after Brexit. Still, much smaller than the rest ofthe world whichever way you measure it, no?kingstongraham said:
I think you said 15%Stevo_666 said:
See my point above about how much(or little) of the world the EU comprises, economically speaking. Which was the main part of my original point.kingstongraham said:
world includes EU.Stevo_666 said:
If you look at what we have done with the new UK customs tariffs and our new trade agreements you should see that is moving in the right direction re rest of world.kingstongraham said:
Us keeping the same barriers to trade with the USA has no impact on whether we have in aggregate increased overall barriers to trade with the world outside the UK.Stevo_666 said:
We aren't increasing barriers to trade with the rest of the world, so what's your point here?kingstongraham said:
Not particularly relevant to a conversation about the impact of a policy to increase barriers to a different location.Stevo_666 said:
Regardless of preferential access, size of markets and potential are clearly relevant. For example, our trade with the US is very substantial - more than with any other country IIRC, but without preferential access.kingstongraham said:That argument doesn't make any sense unless there are major markets that the UK gets substantially more preferential access to than we did in the EU. As far as I know, German companies sell to global markets.
Puts things into perspective.0 -
Sure, lots of stuff go through Singapore too but that’s not so near to here.Stevo_666 said:
Likewise.rick_chasey said:
Plz read the bolded bit 👍🏻👍🏻Stevo_666 said:
Read my posts above about services as you seem you be missing my point. You should be aware that the logistical aspects of shipping goods do not apply to our predominant sector.rick_chasey said:To give you some context, trade in goods and services with the US is only double trade in goods and services with the Netherlands
Also the NL figures are known to be skewed as a lot of product goes via that country.
That’s a feature of my argument not a bug.
It’s illustrative of the gravity of trade argument0 -
I am struggling to think of an industry where they would see the other 180 countries as one humongous blockStevo_666 said:
Not really for me to say exactly what we should focus on specifically, but common sense applies re looking at the largest markets, those with higher growth potential and those where market share is lower.rjsterry said:Stevo_666 said:
A bit of context is needed sometimes. Nobody said it doesn't matter, but it is far from the be all and end all that the Brexit debate might lead some people to believe.rjsterry said:
Depends what you sell, but 1/7 is hardly trivial. But let's pretend the green bit doesn't matter.Stevo_666 said:
I'm waiting for the 2021 stats tbh. It is worth remembering that the City's main opportunities lie outside the EU, given that the EU only represents around 13% of the global economy (and shrinking). So will be interesting to see the overall, picture, while remembering that covid may also have a negative effect impact all round.kingstongraham said:
There must have been another quarter of results since that article - still holding up well?Stevo_666 said:
Edit: not according to the updated version of the source for that article.
It's a fascinating insight into the writing of these ONS reports to see the same thing being referenced to explain completely opposite movements.
Q1: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/articles/theimpactsofeuexitandcoronaviruscovid19onuktradeinservices/july2021Financial services have seen growth in exports to EU countries of £0.08 billion (1.4%) and a reduction in imports from EU countries by £0.57 billion (35.2%) in Quarter 1 2021 compared with Quarter 1 2019.
As part of the TCA, administrative barriers and limitations faced by EU and UK investors, service suppliers and business travellers are kept to a minimum. This may encourage trade in services and may have contributed to the growth in financial services exports to the EU.
Q2:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/articles/theimpactsofeuexitandcoronaviruscovid19onuktradeinservices/november2021In Quarter 2 (April to June) 2021, trade in financial services declined for both exports and imports by £1.5 billion (negative 9.7%) and £0.3 billion (negative 6.3%) respectively compared with Quarter 2 2019. Non-EU exports increased £0.5 billion (5.1%) and imports £0.01 billion (0.4%) since Quarter 2 2019, whereas EU exports and imports declined £2.0 billion (negative 30.6%) and £0.3 billion (negative 21.3%) respectively.
This fall in financial services trade with the EU is partly because of EU exit-related rule changes, with the UK-EU Trade and Co-operation Agreement (TCA) containing limited provision for access in financial services.
The other 6/7ths is a pretty significant, no?
So, what/where are/should we be targeting and how will we supply that market? We're already filling lots of services roles from abroad.
And do we really want to rely even more on services exports when that will just lead to more importing of labour to do all the other work.
So far we've given away market access to Australia in return for not very much, and... what else? If we really are aiming to refocus trade policy you'd hope to see something a bit more ambitious and specific.
Look at it this way (bit of a simplification but I believe the comparison is valid). If you were a global business and you had 2 market segments. The first one is approx 1/7th of the total market, is growing relatively slowly amd you already have a decent market share. The second is approx 6/7ths of the total market, growing faster than the first one and you have a lower market share. Which one would you focus on?
It's a pretty easy question to answer...0 -
Not all businesses export or are multinational. Come, you should know that. Unless you're just being fatuous?kingstongraham said:
Shouldn't everyone in the UK concentrate on exporting to the 96.6% rather than concentrating on the 3.4%?Stevo_666 said:
Not sure how that is relevant when we are looking at export opportunities.pblakeney said:
3.4% of world exports of goods and services in May 2020 according to Wiki.kingstongraham said:
Wht percentage does the UK make up?Stevo_666 said:
Thereabouts. I think it was 15 when we were a member state but clearly has shrunk after Brexit. Still, much smaller than the rest ofthe world whichever way you measure it, no?kingstongraham said:
I think you said 15%Stevo_666 said:
See my point above about how much(or little) of the world the EU comprises, economically speaking. Which was the main part of my original point.kingstongraham said:
world includes EU.Stevo_666 said:
If you look at what we have done with the new UK customs tariffs and our new trade agreements you should see that is moving in the right direction re rest of world.kingstongraham said:
Us keeping the same barriers to trade with the USA has no impact on whether we have in aggregate increased overall barriers to trade with the world outside the UK.Stevo_666 said:
We aren't increasing barriers to trade with the rest of the world, so what's your point here?kingstongraham said:
Not particularly relevant to a conversation about the impact of a policy to increase barriers to a different location.Stevo_666 said:
Regardless of preferential access, size of markets and potential are clearly relevant. For example, our trade with the US is very substantial - more than with any other country IIRC, but without preferential access.kingstongraham said:That argument doesn't make any sense unless there are major markets that the UK gets substantially more preferential access to than we did in the EU. As far as I know, German companies sell to global markets.
Puts things into perspective.
"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
To be clear, I am not saying it has no impact. My point is that it is weaker than you are saying and will continue to become weaker given current trends.rick_chasey said:
Sure, lots of stuff go through Singapore too but that’s not so near to here.Stevo_666 said:
Likewise.rick_chasey said:
Plz read the bolded bit 👍🏻👍🏻Stevo_666 said:
Read my posts above about services as you seem you be missing my point. You should be aware that the logistical aspects of shipping goods do not apply to our predominant sector.rick_chasey said:To give you some context, trade in goods and services with the US is only double trade in goods and services with the Netherlands
Also the NL figures are known to be skewed as a lot of product goes via that country.
That’s a feature of my argument not a bug.
It’s illustrative of the gravity of trade argument
However my point above about focusing on where the biggest potential for incremental business is still stands."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Bottom line is the EU deal is done and highly unlikely to change fundamentally so we need to focus on what we can now change - i.e. rest of world.rjsterry said:
Sure. I would imagine any business that wants to think of itself as global is already doing as you say and looking at these markets. Where a government can influence that is obviously in negotiating better access to those markets, which was a pretty big part of the Brexit prospectus. We're now 5 years on and if we really are interested in exploiting the advantages of being outside the EU we should at least have an overall strategy for this - specific sectors and countries that we want to prioritise. So far the only major deal we've done is to inhibit our access to one of our big markets and in the other column we have a few rollover deals which change nothing and the giveaway to Australian farmers. All of which suggests that the current lot aren't actually interested in pursuing this.Stevo_666 said:
Not really for me to say exactly what we should focus on specifically, but common sense applies re looking at the largest markets, those with higher growth potential and those where market share is lower.rjsterry said:Stevo_666 said:
A bit of context is needed sometimes. Nobody said it doesn't matter, but it is far from the be all and end all that the Brexit debate might lead some people to believe.rjsterry said:
Depends what you sell, but 1/7 is hardly trivial. But let's pretend the green bit doesn't matter.Stevo_666 said:
I'm waiting for the 2021 stats tbh. It is worth remembering that the City's main opportunities lie outside the EU, given that the EU only represents around 13% of the global economy (and shrinking). So will be interesting to see the overall, picture, while remembering that covid may also have a negative effect impact all round.kingstongraham said:
There must have been another quarter of results since that article - still holding up well?Stevo_666 said:
Edit: not according to the updated version of the source for that article.
It's a fascinating insight into the writing of these ONS reports to see the same thing being referenced to explain completely opposite movements.
Q1: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/articles/theimpactsofeuexitandcoronaviruscovid19onuktradeinservices/july2021Financial services have seen growth in exports to EU countries of £0.08 billion (1.4%) and a reduction in imports from EU countries by £0.57 billion (35.2%) in Quarter 1 2021 compared with Quarter 1 2019.
As part of the TCA, administrative barriers and limitations faced by EU and UK investors, service suppliers and business travellers are kept to a minimum. This may encourage trade in services and may have contributed to the growth in financial services exports to the EU.
Q2:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/articles/theimpactsofeuexitandcoronaviruscovid19onuktradeinservices/november2021In Quarter 2 (April to June) 2021, trade in financial services declined for both exports and imports by £1.5 billion (negative 9.7%) and £0.3 billion (negative 6.3%) respectively compared with Quarter 2 2019. Non-EU exports increased £0.5 billion (5.1%) and imports £0.01 billion (0.4%) since Quarter 2 2019, whereas EU exports and imports declined £2.0 billion (negative 30.6%) and £0.3 billion (negative 21.3%) respectively.
This fall in financial services trade with the EU is partly because of EU exit-related rule changes, with the UK-EU Trade and Co-operation Agreement (TCA) containing limited provision for access in financial services.
The other 6/7ths is a pretty significant, no?
So, what/where are/should we be targeting and how will we supply that market? We're already filling lots of services roles from abroad.
And do we really want to rely even more on services exports when that will just lead to more importing of labour to do all the other work.
So far we've given away market access to Australia in return for not very much, and... what else? If we really are aiming to refocus trade policy you'd hope to see something a bit more ambitious and specific.
Look at it this way (bit of a simplification but I believe the comparison is valid). If you were a global business and you had 2 market segments. The first one is approx 1/7th of the total market, is growing relatively slowly amd you already have a decent market share. The second is approx 6/7ths of the total market, growing faster than the first one and you have a lower market share. Which one would you focus on?
It's a pretty easy question to answer...
To some extent the trade deals we can now cut should look at what we want to achieve on a case by case basis for each individual trade partner. In terms of goods that may vary quite a lot. Overall though given our service predominance we should try to include services in future trade deals as far as we can (and subject to individual circumstances)."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
That's why I said it was a simplification.surrey_commuter said:
I am struggling to think of an industry where they would see the other 180 countries as one humongous blockStevo_666 said:
Not really for me to say exactly what we should focus on specifically, but common sense applies re looking at the largest markets, those with higher growth potential and those where market share is lower.rjsterry said:Stevo_666 said:
A bit of context is needed sometimes. Nobody said it doesn't matter, but it is far from the be all and end all that the Brexit debate might lead some people to believe.rjsterry said:
Depends what you sell, but 1/7 is hardly trivial. But let's pretend the green bit doesn't matter.Stevo_666 said:
I'm waiting for the 2021 stats tbh. It is worth remembering that the City's main opportunities lie outside the EU, given that the EU only represents around 13% of the global economy (and shrinking). So will be interesting to see the overall, picture, while remembering that covid may also have a negative effect impact all round.kingstongraham said:
There must have been another quarter of results since that article - still holding up well?Stevo_666 said:
Edit: not according to the updated version of the source for that article.
It's a fascinating insight into the writing of these ONS reports to see the same thing being referenced to explain completely opposite movements.
Q1: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/articles/theimpactsofeuexitandcoronaviruscovid19onuktradeinservices/july2021Financial services have seen growth in exports to EU countries of £0.08 billion (1.4%) and a reduction in imports from EU countries by £0.57 billion (35.2%) in Quarter 1 2021 compared with Quarter 1 2019.
As part of the TCA, administrative barriers and limitations faced by EU and UK investors, service suppliers and business travellers are kept to a minimum. This may encourage trade in services and may have contributed to the growth in financial services exports to the EU.
Q2:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/articles/theimpactsofeuexitandcoronaviruscovid19onuktradeinservices/november2021In Quarter 2 (April to June) 2021, trade in financial services declined for both exports and imports by £1.5 billion (negative 9.7%) and £0.3 billion (negative 6.3%) respectively compared with Quarter 2 2019. Non-EU exports increased £0.5 billion (5.1%) and imports £0.01 billion (0.4%) since Quarter 2 2019, whereas EU exports and imports declined £2.0 billion (negative 30.6%) and £0.3 billion (negative 21.3%) respectively.
This fall in financial services trade with the EU is partly because of EU exit-related rule changes, with the UK-EU Trade and Co-operation Agreement (TCA) containing limited provision for access in financial services.
The other 6/7ths is a pretty significant, no?
So, what/where are/should we be targeting and how will we supply that market? We're already filling lots of services roles from abroad.
And do we really want to rely even more on services exports when that will just lead to more importing of labour to do all the other work.
So far we've given away market access to Australia in return for not very much, and... what else? If we really are aiming to refocus trade policy you'd hope to see something a bit more ambitious and specific.
Look at it this way (bit of a simplification but I believe the comparison is valid). If you were a global business and you had 2 market segments. The first one is approx 1/7th of the total market, is growing relatively slowly amd you already have a decent market share. The second is approx 6/7ths of the total market, growing faster than the first one and you have a lower market share. Which one would you focus on?
It's a pretty easy question to answer...
Although some people on here have argued that 27 countries should be seen as one big block..."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Why's that?Stevo_666 said:
Not all businesses export or are multinational. Come, you should know that. Unless you're just being fatuous?kingstongraham said:
Shouldn't everyone in the UK concentrate on exporting to the 96.6% rather than concentrating on the 3.4%?Stevo_666 said:
Not sure how that is relevant when we are looking at export opportunities.pblakeney said:
3.4% of world exports of goods and services in May 2020 according to Wiki.kingstongraham said:
Wht percentage does the UK make up?Stevo_666 said:
Thereabouts. I think it was 15 when we were a member state but clearly has shrunk after Brexit. Still, much smaller than the rest ofthe world whichever way you measure it, no?kingstongraham said:
I think you said 15%Stevo_666 said:
See my point above about how much(or little) of the world the EU comprises, economically speaking. Which was the main part of my original point.kingstongraham said:
world includes EU.Stevo_666 said:
If you look at what we have done with the new UK customs tariffs and our new trade agreements you should see that is moving in the right direction re rest of world.kingstongraham said:
Us keeping the same barriers to trade with the USA has no impact on whether we have in aggregate increased overall barriers to trade with the world outside the UK.Stevo_666 said:
We aren't increasing barriers to trade with the rest of the world, so what's your point here?kingstongraham said:
Not particularly relevant to a conversation about the impact of a policy to increase barriers to a different location.Stevo_666 said:
Regardless of preferential access, size of markets and potential are clearly relevant. For example, our trade with the US is very substantial - more than with any other country IIRC, but without preferential access.kingstongraham said:That argument doesn't make any sense unless there are major markets that the UK gets substantially more preferential access to than we did in the EU. As far as I know, German companies sell to global markets.
Puts things into perspective.0 -
You tell me. Then maybe stick to the subject.kingstongraham said:
Why's that?Stevo_666 said:
Not all businesses export or are multinational. Come, you should know that. Unless you're just being fatuous?kingstongraham said:
Shouldn't everyone in the UK concentrate on exporting to the 96.6% rather than concentrating on the 3.4%?Stevo_666 said:
Not sure how that is relevant when we are looking at export opportunities.pblakeney said:
3.4% of world exports of goods and services in May 2020 according to Wiki.kingstongraham said:
Wht percentage does the UK make up?Stevo_666 said:
Thereabouts. I think it was 15 when we were a member state but clearly has shrunk after Brexit. Still, much smaller than the rest ofthe world whichever way you measure it, no?kingstongraham said:
I think you said 15%Stevo_666 said:
See my point above about how much(or little) of the world the EU comprises, economically speaking. Which was the main part of my original point.kingstongraham said:
world includes EU.Stevo_666 said:
If you look at what we have done with the new UK customs tariffs and our new trade agreements you should see that is moving in the right direction re rest of world.kingstongraham said:
Us keeping the same barriers to trade with the USA has no impact on whether we have in aggregate increased overall barriers to trade with the world outside the UK.Stevo_666 said:
We aren't increasing barriers to trade with the rest of the world, so what's your point here?kingstongraham said:
Not particularly relevant to a conversation about the impact of a policy to increase barriers to a different location.Stevo_666 said:
Regardless of preferential access, size of markets and potential are clearly relevant. For example, our trade with the US is very substantial - more than with any other country IIRC, but without preferential access.kingstongraham said:That argument doesn't make any sense unless there are major markets that the UK gets substantially more preferential access to than we did in the EU. As far as I know, German companies sell to global markets.
Puts things into perspective."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Exports to China from the UK fell by 36% last year.0
-
skyblueamateur said:
Exports to China from the UK fell by 36% last year.
I guess that imports were pretty buoyant.0 -
Imports from China up by 42%briantrumpet said:skyblueamateur said:Exports to China from the UK fell by 36% last year.
I guess that imports were pretty buoyant.0 -
skyblueamateur said:
Imports from China up by 42%briantrumpet said:skyblueamateur said:Exports to China from the UK fell by 36% last year.
I guess that imports were pretty buoyant.
That's a lot of rubber gloves.0 -
Agreed. Just waiting to see some evidence of it.Stevo_666 said:
Bottom line is the EU deal is done and highly unlikely to change fundamentally so we need to focus on what we can now change - i.e. rest of world.rjsterry said:
Sure. I would imagine any business that wants to think of itself as global is already doing as you say and looking at these markets. Where a government can influence that is obviously in negotiating better access to those markets, which was a pretty big part of the Brexit prospectus. We're now 5 years on and if we really are interested in exploiting the advantages of being outside the EU we should at least have an overall strategy for this - specific sectors and countries that we want to prioritise. So far the only major deal we've done is to inhibit our access to one of our big markets and in the other column we have a few rollover deals which change nothing and the giveaway to Australian farmers. All of which suggests that the current lot aren't actually interested in pursuing this.Stevo_666 said:
Not really for me to say exactly what we should focus on specifically, but common sense applies re looking at the largest markets, those with higher growth potential and those where market share is lower.rjsterry said:Stevo_666 said:
A bit of context is needed sometimes. Nobody said it doesn't matter, but it is far from the be all and end all that the Brexit debate might lead some people to believe.rjsterry said:
Depends what you sell, but 1/7 is hardly trivial. But let's pretend the green bit doesn't matter.Stevo_666 said:
I'm waiting for the 2021 stats tbh. It is worth remembering that the City's main opportunities lie outside the EU, given that the EU only represents around 13% of the global economy (and shrinking). So will be interesting to see the overall, picture, while remembering that covid may also have a negative effect impact all round.kingstongraham said:
There must have been another quarter of results since that article - still holding up well?Stevo_666 said:
Edit: not according to the updated version of the source for that article.
It's a fascinating insight into the writing of these ONS reports to see the same thing being referenced to explain completely opposite movements.
Q1: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/articles/theimpactsofeuexitandcoronaviruscovid19onuktradeinservices/july2021Financial services have seen growth in exports to EU countries of £0.08 billion (1.4%) and a reduction in imports from EU countries by £0.57 billion (35.2%) in Quarter 1 2021 compared with Quarter 1 2019.
As part of the TCA, administrative barriers and limitations faced by EU and UK investors, service suppliers and business travellers are kept to a minimum. This may encourage trade in services and may have contributed to the growth in financial services exports to the EU.
Q2:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/articles/theimpactsofeuexitandcoronaviruscovid19onuktradeinservices/november2021In Quarter 2 (April to June) 2021, trade in financial services declined for both exports and imports by £1.5 billion (negative 9.7%) and £0.3 billion (negative 6.3%) respectively compared with Quarter 2 2019. Non-EU exports increased £0.5 billion (5.1%) and imports £0.01 billion (0.4%) since Quarter 2 2019, whereas EU exports and imports declined £2.0 billion (negative 30.6%) and £0.3 billion (negative 21.3%) respectively.
This fall in financial services trade with the EU is partly because of EU exit-related rule changes, with the UK-EU Trade and Co-operation Agreement (TCA) containing limited provision for access in financial services.
The other 6/7ths is a pretty significant, no?
So, what/where are/should we be targeting and how will we supply that market? We're already filling lots of services roles from abroad.
And do we really want to rely even more on services exports when that will just lead to more importing of labour to do all the other work.
So far we've given away market access to Australia in return for not very much, and... what else? If we really are aiming to refocus trade policy you'd hope to see something a bit more ambitious and specific.
Look at it this way (bit of a simplification but I believe the comparison is valid). If you were a global business and you had 2 market segments. The first one is approx 1/7th of the total market, is growing relatively slowly amd you already have a decent market share. The second is approx 6/7ths of the total market, growing faster than the first one and you have a lower market share. Which one would you focus on?
It's a pretty easy question to answer...
To some extent the trade deals we can now cut should look at what we want to achieve on a case by case basis for each individual trade partner. In terms of goods that may vary quite a lot. Overall though given our service predominance we should try to include services in future trade deals as far as we can (and subject to individual circumstances).1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
I think because of geographical proximity and lack of barriers.Stevo_666 said:
You tell me. Then maybe stick to the subject.kingstongraham said:
Why's that?Stevo_666 said:
Not all businesses export or are multinational. Come, you should know that. Unless you're just being fatuous?kingstongraham said:
Shouldn't everyone in the UK concentrate on exporting to the 96.6% rather than concentrating on the 3.4%?Stevo_666 said:
Not sure how that is relevant when we are looking at export opportunities.pblakeney said:
3.4% of world exports of goods and services in May 2020 according to Wiki.kingstongraham said:
Wht percentage does the UK make up?Stevo_666 said:
Thereabouts. I think it was 15 when we were a member state but clearly has shrunk after Brexit. Still, much smaller than the rest ofthe world whichever way you measure it, no?kingstongraham said:
I think you said 15%Stevo_666 said:
See my point above about how much(or little) of the world the EU comprises, economically speaking. Which was the main part of my original point.kingstongraham said:
world includes EU.Stevo_666 said:
If you look at what we have done with the new UK customs tariffs and our new trade agreements you should see that is moving in the right direction re rest of world.kingstongraham said:
Us keeping the same barriers to trade with the USA has no impact on whether we have in aggregate increased overall barriers to trade with the world outside the UK.Stevo_666 said:
We aren't increasing barriers to trade with the rest of the world, so what's your point here?kingstongraham said:
Not particularly relevant to a conversation about the impact of a policy to increase barriers to a different location.Stevo_666 said:
Regardless of preferential access, size of markets and potential are clearly relevant. For example, our trade with the US is very substantial - more than with any other country IIRC, but without preferential access.kingstongraham said:That argument doesn't make any sense unless there are major markets that the UK gets substantially more preferential access to than we did in the EU. As far as I know, German companies sell to global markets.
Puts things into perspective.0 -
The presumption the 85% is easily accessible totally ignores the long tail effect.
Why is any service more easily accessible in large conurbations than out in the stix? Because that’s where the bulk of the customers are concentrated.
A significant proportion of the 85% will not be readily accessible for all manner of reasons.
G7 nations are where the trade is. China and US cover the bulk of the trade outside Eu and they aren’t exactly battering the door down.0 -
Time to celebrate. You'll find all the benefits in the thread below the tweet.
0 -
Lol at the announcement of a supposed £1bn Brexit dividend for UK businesses from cutting regulations as if that is a lot of money.1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
But that is the point of the single marketStevo_666 said:
That's why I said it was a simplification.surrey_commuter said:
I am struggling to think of an industry where they would see the other 180 countries as one humongous blockStevo_666 said:
Not really for me to say exactly what we should focus on specifically, but common sense applies re looking at the largest markets, those with higher growth potential and those where market share is lower.rjsterry said:Stevo_666 said:
A bit of context is needed sometimes. Nobody said it doesn't matter, but it is far from the be all and end all that the Brexit debate might lead some people to believe.rjsterry said:
Depends what you sell, but 1/7 is hardly trivial. But let's pretend the green bit doesn't matter.Stevo_666 said:
I'm waiting for the 2021 stats tbh. It is worth remembering that the City's main opportunities lie outside the EU, given that the EU only represents around 13% of the global economy (and shrinking). So will be interesting to see the overall, picture, while remembering that covid may also have a negative effect impact all round.kingstongraham said:
There must have been another quarter of results since that article - still holding up well?Stevo_666 said:
Edit: not according to the updated version of the source for that article.
It's a fascinating insight into the writing of these ONS reports to see the same thing being referenced to explain completely opposite movements.
Q1: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/articles/theimpactsofeuexitandcoronaviruscovid19onuktradeinservices/july2021Financial services have seen growth in exports to EU countries of £0.08 billion (1.4%) and a reduction in imports from EU countries by £0.57 billion (35.2%) in Quarter 1 2021 compared with Quarter 1 2019.
As part of the TCA, administrative barriers and limitations faced by EU and UK investors, service suppliers and business travellers are kept to a minimum. This may encourage trade in services and may have contributed to the growth in financial services exports to the EU.
Q2:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/articles/theimpactsofeuexitandcoronaviruscovid19onuktradeinservices/november2021In Quarter 2 (April to June) 2021, trade in financial services declined for both exports and imports by £1.5 billion (negative 9.7%) and £0.3 billion (negative 6.3%) respectively compared with Quarter 2 2019. Non-EU exports increased £0.5 billion (5.1%) and imports £0.01 billion (0.4%) since Quarter 2 2019, whereas EU exports and imports declined £2.0 billion (negative 30.6%) and £0.3 billion (negative 21.3%) respectively.
This fall in financial services trade with the EU is partly because of EU exit-related rule changes, with the UK-EU Trade and Co-operation Agreement (TCA) containing limited provision for access in financial services.
The other 6/7ths is a pretty significant, no?
So, what/where are/should we be targeting and how will we supply that market? We're already filling lots of services roles from abroad.
And do we really want to rely even more on services exports when that will just lead to more importing of labour to do all the other work.
So far we've given away market access to Australia in return for not very much, and... what else? If we really are aiming to refocus trade policy you'd hope to see something a bit more ambitious and specific.
Look at it this way (bit of a simplification but I believe the comparison is valid). If you were a global business and you had 2 market segments. The first one is approx 1/7th of the total market, is growing relatively slowly amd you already have a decent market share. The second is approx 6/7ths of the total market, growing faster than the first one and you have a lower market share. Which one would you focus on?
It's a pretty easy question to answer...
Although some people on here have argued that 27 countries should be seen as one big block...0 -
I thought that no trade deal had ever included services. The Govt line is that the City is so big that it does not need Govt help.Stevo_666 said:
Bottom line is the EU deal is done and highly unlikely to change fundamentally so we need to focus on what we can now change - i.e. rest of world.rjsterry said:
Sure. I would imagine any business that wants to think of itself as global is already doing as you say and looking at these markets. Where a government can influence that is obviously in negotiating better access to those markets, which was a pretty big part of the Brexit prospectus. We're now 5 years on and if we really are interested in exploiting the advantages of being outside the EU we should at least have an overall strategy for this - specific sectors and countries that we want to prioritise. So far the only major deal we've done is to inhibit our access to one of our big markets and in the other column we have a few rollover deals which change nothing and the giveaway to Australian farmers. All of which suggests that the current lot aren't actually interested in pursuing this.Stevo_666 said:
Not really for me to say exactly what we should focus on specifically, but common sense applies re looking at the largest markets, those with higher growth potential and those where market share is lower.rjsterry said:Stevo_666 said:
A bit of context is needed sometimes. Nobody said it doesn't matter, but it is far from the be all and end all that the Brexit debate might lead some people to believe.rjsterry said:
Depends what you sell, but 1/7 is hardly trivial. But let's pretend the green bit doesn't matter.Stevo_666 said:
I'm waiting for the 2021 stats tbh. It is worth remembering that the City's main opportunities lie outside the EU, given that the EU only represents around 13% of the global economy (and shrinking). So will be interesting to see the overall, picture, while remembering that covid may also have a negative effect impact all round.kingstongraham said:
There must have been another quarter of results since that article - still holding up well?Stevo_666 said:
Edit: not according to the updated version of the source for that article.
It's a fascinating insight into the writing of these ONS reports to see the same thing being referenced to explain completely opposite movements.
Q1: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/articles/theimpactsofeuexitandcoronaviruscovid19onuktradeinservices/july2021Financial services have seen growth in exports to EU countries of £0.08 billion (1.4%) and a reduction in imports from EU countries by £0.57 billion (35.2%) in Quarter 1 2021 compared with Quarter 1 2019.
As part of the TCA, administrative barriers and limitations faced by EU and UK investors, service suppliers and business travellers are kept to a minimum. This may encourage trade in services and may have contributed to the growth in financial services exports to the EU.
Q2:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/articles/theimpactsofeuexitandcoronaviruscovid19onuktradeinservices/november2021In Quarter 2 (April to June) 2021, trade in financial services declined for both exports and imports by £1.5 billion (negative 9.7%) and £0.3 billion (negative 6.3%) respectively compared with Quarter 2 2019. Non-EU exports increased £0.5 billion (5.1%) and imports £0.01 billion (0.4%) since Quarter 2 2019, whereas EU exports and imports declined £2.0 billion (negative 30.6%) and £0.3 billion (negative 21.3%) respectively.
This fall in financial services trade with the EU is partly because of EU exit-related rule changes, with the UK-EU Trade and Co-operation Agreement (TCA) containing limited provision for access in financial services.
The other 6/7ths is a pretty significant, no?
So, what/where are/should we be targeting and how will we supply that market? We're already filling lots of services roles from abroad.
And do we really want to rely even more on services exports when that will just lead to more importing of labour to do all the other work.
So far we've given away market access to Australia in return for not very much, and... what else? If we really are aiming to refocus trade policy you'd hope to see something a bit more ambitious and specific.
Look at it this way (bit of a simplification but I believe the comparison is valid). If you were a global business and you had 2 market segments. The first one is approx 1/7th of the total market, is growing relatively slowly amd you already have a decent market share. The second is approx 6/7ths of the total market, growing faster than the first one and you have a lower market share. Which one would you focus on?
It's a pretty easy question to answer...
To some extent the trade deals we can now cut should look at what we want to achieve on a case by case basis for each individual trade partner. In terms of goods that may vary quite a lot. Overall though given our service predominance we should try to include services in future trade deals as far as we can (and subject to individual circumstances).
The problem with bespoke deals is that most have a most favoured nation clause in them so that if you give better terms to one ountry you have to give it to all others you have a FTA with0
