BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴

morstar

Driving up wages due to a finite labour capacity was a bedrock of what many Brexit voters support.

I am surprised the government are sticking to this and letting the market adjust but it’s difficult to object to.

Regardless of my dislike of Brexit, something being difficult is not a good enough reason not to do it.
We have chosen to Brexit and this is one of the difficulties, if it drives up wages for front line roles, many will see this as Brexit delivering.

surrey_commuter

morstar said:

Driving up wages due to a finite labour capacity was a bedrock of what many Brexit voters support.

I am surprised the government are sticking to this and letting the market adjust but it’s difficult to object to.

Regardless of my dislike of Brexit, something being difficult is not a good enough reason not to do it.
We have chosen to Brexit and this is one of the difficulties, if it drives up wages for front line roles, many will see this as Brexit delivering.

Is it not more of the method of doing it? There has been a shortage of lorry drivers for years with a known demographic timebomb, why would you not plan for a smoother transition.
Same with vets, I read that about 900 a year qualify but more than that leave. Why would you not do something about that before fvcking off EU vets?
The next whisper I am hearing is opticians - that will test people’s resolve to believe in higher wages when they wait 3 months for an apt.

morstar

surrey_commuter said:

morstar said:

Driving up wages due to a finite labour capacity was a bedrock of what many Brexit voters support.

I am surprised the government are sticking to this and letting the market adjust but it’s difficult to object to.

Regardless of my dislike of Brexit, something being difficult is not a good enough reason not to do it.
We have chosen to Brexit and this is one of the difficulties, if it drives up wages for front line roles, many will see this as Brexit delivering.

Is it not more of the method of doing it? There has been a shortage of lorry drivers for years with a known demographic timebomb, why would you not plan for a smoother transition.
Same with vets, I read that about 900 a year qualify but more than that leave. Why would you not do something about that before fvcking off EU vets?
The next whisper I am hearing is opticians - that will test people’s resolve to believe in higher wages when they wait 3 months for an apt.

You see where your mistake is surely?

Plan!

rick_chasey

This is basically what Brext is doing.

If the same given cost of doing something goes up across the whole economy (like for example, a large oil price spike, like what happened in the 70s), you get higher prices (inflation) and lower output.

This is stag flation.

In the chart, aggregate supply is that curved line - it is like that as when you start bumping up to the limits of the overall supply in the economy all the prices rise.

The straight diagonal line is aggregate demand > so for a given level of demand, a change in supply as demonstrated creates higher prices (y axis) and lower output (x axis).

morstar

That’s too simplistic though, it isn’t a completely closed system.
The counter argument is that too much profit has been driven to shareholders and senior management on the back of artificially low labour costs.

The working class Brexiteer expects a redistribution of some of those profits through actual living wages.

I sit on the fence. I think there is some deluded gullibility there but conversely, wealth disparity is growing so the argument isn’t totally unfounded.

rick_chasey

morstar said:

That’s too simplistic though, it isn’t a completely closed system.
The counter argument is that too much profit has been driven to shareholders and senior management on the back of artificially low labour costs.

The working class Brexiteer expects a redistribution of some of those profits through actual living wages.

I sit on the fence. I think there is some deluded gullibility there but conversely, wealth disparity is growing so the argument isn’t totally unfounded.

What has any of the above got to do with the model I posted?

morstar

rick_chasey said:

morstar said:

That’s too simplistic though, it isn’t a completely closed system.
The counter argument is that too much profit has been driven to shareholders and senior management on the back of artificially low labour costs.

The working class Brexiteer expects a redistribution of some of those profits through actual living wages.

I sit on the fence. I think there is some deluded gullibility there but conversely, wealth disparity is growing so the argument isn’t totally unfounded.

What has any of the above got to do with the model I posted?

Everything. It’s the mechanism for why it’s happening.

The shortage is caused by the removal of cheap labour.

The workers Brexit argument is that the labour will be replaced by better paid uk labour. Costs and prices will go up but once the labour is replaced, there is no reason why productivity remains suppressed.

Just slapping up a chart saying oh woe is us and not addressing the mechanisms is a pointless exercise.

What response do you want?

TheBigBean

morstar said:

What response do you want?

Someone to point out the lump of labour fallacy.

morstar

TheBigBean said:

morstar said:

What response do you want?

Someone to point out the lump of labour fallacy.

Which is fallacy. As is the infinite labour fallacy.

As ever, truth lies somewhere in between.

john80

rick_chasey said:

morstar said:

That’s too simplistic though, it isn’t a completely closed system.
The counter argument is that too much profit has been driven to shareholders and senior management on the back of artificially low labour costs.

The working class Brexiteer expects a redistribution of some of those profits through actual living wages.

I sit on the fence. I think there is some deluded gullibility there but conversely, wealth disparity is growing so the argument isn’t totally unfounded.

What has any of the above got to do with the model I posted?

Wage costs increases are not directly linked to product cost. Is it that hard to understand.

surrey_commuter

john80 said:

rick_chasey said:

morstar said:

That’s too simplistic though, it isn’t a completely closed system.
The counter argument is that too much profit has been driven to shareholders and senior management on the back of artificially low labour costs.

The working class Brexiteer expects a redistribution of some of those profits through actual living wages.

I sit on the fence. I think there is some deluded gullibility there but conversely, wealth disparity is growing so the argument isn’t totally unfounded.

What has any of the above got to do with the model I posted?

Wage costs increases are not directly linked to product cost. Is it that hard to understand.

and in those circumstances some businesses will go bust

rjsterry

morstar said:

rick_chasey said:

morstar said:

That’s too simplistic though, it isn’t a completely closed system.
The counter argument is that too much profit has been driven to shareholders and senior management on the back of artificially low labour costs.

The working class Brexiteer expects a redistribution of some of those profits through actual living wages.

I sit on the fence. I think there is some deluded gullibility there but conversely, wealth disparity is growing so the argument isn’t totally unfounded.

What has any of the above got to do with the model I posted?

Everything. It’s the mechanism for why it’s happening.

The shortage is caused by the removal of cheap labour.

The workers Brexit argument is that the labour will be replaced by better paid uk labour. Costs and prices will go up but once the labour is replaced, there is no reason why productivity remains suppressed.

Just slapping up a chart saying oh woe is us and not addressing the mechanisms is a pointless exercise.

What response do you want?

They've removed labour full stop, not just 'cheap' labour. However much you offer, you can't turn an unemployed theatre worker into a qualified plumber or haulier overnight.

pangolin

rjsterry said:

morstar said:

rick_chasey said:

morstar said:

That’s too simplistic though, it isn’t a completely closed system.
The counter argument is that too much profit has been driven to shareholders and senior management on the back of artificially low labour costs.

The working class Brexiteer expects a redistribution of some of those profits through actual living wages.

I sit on the fence. I think there is some deluded gullibility there but conversely, wealth disparity is growing so the argument isn’t totally unfounded.

What has any of the above got to do with the model I posted?

Everything. It’s the mechanism for why it’s happening.

The shortage is caused by the removal of cheap labour.

The workers Brexit argument is that the labour will be replaced by better paid uk labour. Costs and prices will go up but once the labour is replaced, there is no reason why productivity remains suppressed.

Just slapping up a chart saying oh woe is us and not addressing the mechanisms is a pointless exercise.

What response do you want?

They've removed labour full stop, not just 'cheap' labour. However much you offer, you can't turn an unemployed theatre worker into a qualified plumber or haulier overnight.

How did the EU workforce compare to the UK workforce? Was it a similar spread from say the fruit picking end up to Drs etc, or did it skew one way or the other?

darkhairedlord

rjsterry said:

morstar said:

rick_chasey said:

morstar said:

That’s too simplistic though, it isn’t a completely closed system.
The counter argument is that too much profit has been driven to shareholders and senior management on the back of artificially low labour costs.

The working class Brexiteer expects a redistribution of some of those profits through actual living wages.

I sit on the fence. I think there is some deluded gullibility there but conversely, wealth disparity is growing so the argument isn’t totally unfounded.

What has any of the above got to do with the model I posted?

Everything. It’s the mechanism for why it’s happening.

The shortage is caused by the removal of cheap labour.

The workers Brexit argument is that the labour will be replaced by better paid uk labour. Costs and prices will go up but once the labour is replaced, there is no reason why productivity remains suppressed.

Just slapping up a chart saying oh woe is us and not addressing the mechanisms is a pointless exercise.

What response do you want?

They've removed labour full stop, not just 'cheap' labour. However much you offer, you can't turn an unemployed theatre worker into a qualified plumber or haulier overnight.

once everyone is off furlough they will have less time on their hands to buy tat, so fewer drivers needed.
Sensible hauliers might start by putting drivers on proper employment contracts rather than zero hours scrape a living contracts. Sure, delivery costs will rise but FFS, shouldn't they?
Sensible hauliers might start using rail to between hubs, and use vans instead of private cars with half an MoT and a baby in the boot.
Anyway, what i'm driving at is rebalancing of the economy to reflect supply and demand. Bound to be changes, get on with it.

rick_chasey

pangolin said:

rjsterry said:

morstar said:

rick_chasey said:

morstar said:

That’s too simplistic though, it isn’t a completely closed system.
The counter argument is that too much profit has been driven to shareholders and senior management on the back of artificially low labour costs.

The working class Brexiteer expects a redistribution of some of those profits through actual living wages.

I sit on the fence. I think there is some deluded gullibility there but conversely, wealth disparity is growing so the argument isn’t totally unfounded.

What has any of the above got to do with the model I posted?

Everything. It’s the mechanism for why it’s happening.

The shortage is caused by the removal of cheap labour.

The workers Brexit argument is that the labour will be replaced by better paid uk labour. Costs and prices will go up but once the labour is replaced, there is no reason why productivity remains suppressed.

Just slapping up a chart saying oh woe is us and not addressing the mechanisms is a pointless exercise.

What response do you want?

They've removed labour full stop, not just 'cheap' labour. However much you offer, you can't turn an unemployed theatre worker into a qualified plumber or haulier overnight.

How did the EU workforce compare to the UK workforce? Was it a similar spread from say the fruit picking end up to Drs etc, or did it skew one way or the other?

Skewed to higher earners, largely as the parts of the economy that need lower wage people (like fruit picking) are substantially smaller parts of the economy.

The really high paying jobs are usually internationally competitive given the high pay so they tend to attract quite an international field.

rick_chasey

john80 said:

rick_chasey said:

morstar said:

That’s too simplistic though, it isn’t a completely closed system.
The counter argument is that too much profit has been driven to shareholders and senior management on the back of artificially low labour costs.

The working class Brexiteer expects a redistribution of some of those profits through actual living wages.

I sit on the fence. I think there is some deluded gullibility there but conversely, wealth disparity is growing so the argument isn’t totally unfounded.

What has any of the above got to do with the model I posted?

Wage costs increases are not directly linked to product cost. Is it that hard to understand.

So that chart I posted is illustratinc the price of *everything* including wages, and the demand is the demand of *everything* and the supply of *everything*

Brexit is basically a stagflationary event as it increases friction in the economy.

Short reminder, paying more for the same en masse is just inflationary.

rick_chasey

See money or the price of things as a way to represent what the value of something is.


Paying for for the same service isn’t increasing economic output - that’s just inflationary.

Paying more because they add more value - economic growth.

rjsterry

darkhairedlord said:

rjsterry said:

morstar said:

rick_chasey said:

morstar said:

That’s too simplistic though, it isn’t a completely closed system.
The counter argument is that too much profit has been driven to shareholders and senior management on the back of artificially low labour costs.

The working class Brexiteer expects a redistribution of some of those profits through actual living wages.

I sit on the fence. I think there is some deluded gullibility there but conversely, wealth disparity is growing so the argument isn’t totally unfounded.

What has any of the above got to do with the model I posted?

Everything. It’s the mechanism for why it’s happening.

The shortage is caused by the removal of cheap labour.

The workers Brexit argument is that the labour will be replaced by better paid uk labour. Costs and prices will go up but once the labour is replaced, there is no reason why productivity remains suppressed.

Just slapping up a chart saying oh woe is us and not addressing the mechanisms is a pointless exercise.

What response do you want?

They've removed labour full stop, not just 'cheap' labour. However much you offer, you can't turn an unemployed theatre worker into a qualified plumber or haulier overnight.

once everyone is off furlough they will have less time on their hands to buy tat, so fewer drivers needed.
Sensible hauliers might start by putting drivers on proper employment contracts rather than zero hours scrape a living contracts. Sure, delivery costs will rise but FFS, shouldn't they?
Sensible hauliers might start using rail to between hubs, and use vans instead of private cars with half an MoT and a baby in the boot.
Anyway, what i'm driving at is rebalancing of the economy to reflect supply and demand. Bound to be changes, get on with it.

It's not just hauliers. Construction has major shortages across the spectrum. Agency rates for the most basic unskilled labour have jumped from £90/day to £140/day.

tailwindhome

It's a hell of an experiment to run


Also, deeply un- Conservative.

TheBigBean

rjsterry said:

darkhairedlord said:

rjsterry said:

morstar said:

rick_chasey said:

morstar said:

That’s too simplistic though, it isn’t a completely closed system.
The counter argument is that too much profit has been driven to shareholders and senior management on the back of artificially low labour costs.

The working class Brexiteer expects a redistribution of some of those profits through actual living wages.

I sit on the fence. I think there is some deluded gullibility there but conversely, wealth disparity is growing so the argument isn’t totally unfounded.

What has any of the above got to do with the model I posted?

Everything. It’s the mechanism for why it’s happening.

The shortage is caused by the removal of cheap labour.

The workers Brexit argument is that the labour will be replaced by better paid uk labour. Costs and prices will go up but once the labour is replaced, there is no reason why productivity remains suppressed.

Just slapping up a chart saying oh woe is us and not addressing the mechanisms is a pointless exercise.

What response do you want?

They've removed labour full stop, not just 'cheap' labour. However much you offer, you can't turn an unemployed theatre worker into a qualified plumber or haulier overnight.

once everyone is off furlough they will have less time on their hands to buy tat, so fewer drivers needed.
Sensible hauliers might start by putting drivers on proper employment contracts rather than zero hours scrape a living contracts. Sure, delivery costs will rise but FFS, shouldn't they?
Sensible hauliers might start using rail to between hubs, and use vans instead of private cars with half an MoT and a baby in the boot.
Anyway, what i'm driving at is rebalancing of the economy to reflect supply and demand. Bound to be changes, get on with it.

It's not just hauliers. Construction has major shortages across the spectrum. Agency rates for the most basic unskilled labour have jumped from £90/day to £140/day.

Higher rates would encourage those that are qualified, but are no longer working e.g. recently retired. That might not be a vast number, but it is some.

Also, construction has always been like that. In space 10 years, the cost of buildings I have worked on has gone from £3700/m2 to £1900/m2 and then back to £4000/m2. It is the reason companies like Carillion no longer exist.

TheBigBean

tailwindhome said:

It's a hell of an experiment to run


Also, deeply un- Conservative.

Free movement of people across a continent is also something of an experiment.

morstar

tailwindhome said:

It's a hell of an experiment to run


Also, deeply un- Conservative.

Re the latter. The market will adjust.

tailwindhome

morstar said:

tailwindhome said:

It's a hell of an experiment to run


Also, deeply un- Conservative.

Re the latter. The market will adjust.

It would be interesting to dig out what Tory Brexiteers said before voting against the minimum wage

verylonglegs

TheBigBean said:

tailwindhome said:

It's a hell of an experiment to run


Also, deeply un- Conservative.

Free movement of people across a continent is also something of an experiment.

It could be suggested you've got that the wrong way round. People have been crossing continents freely since man existed, nation states are the experiment.

morstar

tailwindhome said:

morstar said:

tailwindhome said:

It's a hell of an experiment to run


Also, deeply un- Conservative.

Re the latter. The market will adjust.

It would be interesting to dig out what Tory Brexiteers said before voting against the minimum wage

tailwindhome said:

morstar said:

tailwindhome said:

It's a hell of an experiment to run


Also, deeply un- Conservative.

Re the latter. The market will adjust.

It would be interesting to dig out what Tory Brexiteers said before voting against the minimum wage

I agree it’s an odd one for them to stick by.
This is one of the fundamental areas where I expected the Brexit dreams of the working man and those delivered to diverge.

morstar

rjsterry said:

morstar said:

rick_chasey said:

morstar said:

That’s too simplistic though, it isn’t a completely closed system.
The counter argument is that too much profit has been driven to shareholders and senior management on the back of artificially low labour costs.

The working class Brexiteer expects a redistribution of some of those profits through actual living wages.

I sit on the fence. I think there is some deluded gullibility there but conversely, wealth disparity is growing so the argument isn’t totally unfounded.

What has any of the above got to do with the model I posted?

Everything. It’s the mechanism for why it’s happening.

The shortage is caused by the removal of cheap labour.

The workers Brexit argument is that the labour will be replaced by better paid uk labour. Costs and prices will go up but once the labour is replaced, there is no reason why productivity remains suppressed.

Just slapping up a chart saying oh woe is us and not addressing the mechanisms is a pointless exercise.

What response do you want?

They've removed labour full stop, not just 'cheap' labour. However much you offer, you can't turn an unemployed theatre worker into a qualified plumber or haulier overnight.

I agree but had said a few posts earlier that just because something is difficult, doesn’t mean it’s wrong.

Short to mid term inconvenience on the road to a bigger objective is maybe a price worth paying if you believe in the objective..

To clarify, I’m still anti Brexit, I just don’t think that difficult adjustments are enough justification to say something hasn’t worked / won’t work.

rick_chasey

rick_chasey said:

Last thing I'll say on this particular matter - I quite like the chart as it encapsulates what happens when you add friction to an economy.

Things cost more (inflation) but the actual economic output shrinks (RDO or "real domestic output).

It's easy to think in isolation that well a shortage of x means that people who have x in Britain will earn more, but in aggregate, that's not how it works (which makes sense if you think hard enough about it).

I find the chart a really helpful way to visualise what happens.

elbowloh

Thing is, I have no idea what any of the acronyms/abbreviations are, so it's meaningless to me

pblakeney

elbowloh said:

Thing is, I have no idea what any of the acronyms/abbreviations are, so it's meaningless to me

Quite probably the main reason it is not getting any traction.

rick_chasey

elbowloh said:

Thing is, I have no idea what any of the acronyms/abbreviations are, so it's meaningless to me

All prices on the x column, real domestic output on the y column. AS - aggregate supply (so all the supply in the economy) and AD, aggregate demand (so all the demand in the economy).

It's your standard demand & Supply chart but then applied to the entire economy (in aggregate) rather than one particular product or market.