BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴
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Rick Chasey wrote:If anyone's interested in how trade negotiations typically go, here's an oxford professor explaining on news night.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3kPOdSFKD-Q
Some tips here too!
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... heresa-may0 -
The smilies really need to be sorted on this forum too. F!cking Brexit.0
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Update for those who aren't reading.
Sterling down almost 20%, all imports getting more expensive.
Inflation rising and quite possibly stagflation on the cards.
BoE not really got much left in the locker.
Budget deficit £2.1bn worse than expected in September in line with Project Fear. Only thing that's not working there is the fact we are still 2 1/2 years away from leaving, at least.
Other than that, all good, except the rise in legitimised racism and a completely broken country.
Faux pas?0 -
Joelsim wrote:Update for those who aren't reading.
Sterling down almost 20%, all imports getting more expensive.
Inflation rising and quite possibly stagflation on the cards.
BoE not really got much left in the locker.
Budget deficit £2.1bn worse than expected in September in line with Project Fear. Only thing that's not working there is the fact we are still 2 1/2 years away from leaving, at least.
Other than that, all good, except the rise in legitimised racism and a completely broken country.
Faux pas?
Are we sure on the stagflation front? I thought employment was OK.
On the bright side imported inflation will drop out of the figures free 12 months.
Budget deficit will continue to worsen until taxes are raised or spending is cut. The trouble is that the Govt can afford to do neither as it could push the economy into recession. Keep an eye on the bond markets as this indicates investors confidence in our economy and thus our future ability to repay. Gilt rates have doubled in the last month - this is not as bad as it sounds as there are a number of factors at work but it is a warning to Hammond.0 -
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Surrey Commuter wrote:Joelsim wrote:Update for those who aren't reading.
Sterling down almost 20%, all imports getting more expensive.
Inflation rising and quite possibly stagflation on the cards.
BoE not really got much left in the locker.
Budget deficit £2.1bn worse than expected in September in line with Project Fear. Only thing that's not working there is the fact we are still 2 1/2 years away from leaving, at least.
Other than that, all good, except the rise in legitimised racism and a completely broken country.
Faux pas?
Are we sure on the stagflation front? I thought employment was OK.
On the bright side imported inflation will drop out of the figures free 12 months.
Budget deficit will continue to worsen until taxes are raised or spending is cut. The trouble is that the Govt can afford to do neither as it could push the economy into recession. Keep an eye on the bond markets as this indicates investors confidence in our economy and thus our future ability to repay. Gilt rates have doubled in the last month - this is not as bad as it sounds as there are a number of factors at work but it is a warning to Hammond.
And the government can't be seen to raise taxes, so expect any that are as stealth.
As the economy worsens jobs will be lost. Guaranteed.0 -
Rick Chasey wrote:
C!nts?0 -
Just think Joel, you can repeat yourself every day for the next 2.5 years. I hope it makes you happier than you seem to be.Joelsim wrote:Update for those who aren't reading.
Sterling down almost 20%, all imports getting more expensive.
Inflation rising and quite possibly stagflation on the cards.
BoE not really got much left in the locker.
Budget deficit £2.1bn worse than expected in September in line with Project Fear. Only thing that's not working there is the fact we are still 2 1/2 years away from leaving, at least.
Other than that, all good, except the rise in legitimised racism and a completely broken country.
Faux pas?
I'm just surprised you are not angry with the EU politicians, after all it is them who want to damage the UK.
Deficits vary by month. Inflation was almost zero before and is still well below what it has been historically. Stagflation is you conjecture as you admit. Weaker sterling means more competitive exports, although I am usr you've noticed Sterling bounce back couple of cents this week. A 'broken' country is pure subjective.
And we are in a better state then the Eurozone which looks like it is in for a very rough ride in the near future."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Why exactly did Sterling bounce back this week Steve? Oh.
And as regards the EU politicians wanting to damage the uk, let's blame anyone but the people who are causing this shall we?0 -
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That is exactly what you are doing.Joelsim wrote:And as regards the EU politicians wanting to damage the uk, let's blame anyone but the people who are causing this shall we?
I suspect he rather petulant reaction of Eurotw@t politicians is due to the fact the the Euro and the Eurozone are facing a major crisis now and over the next few years and rather than try to address the underlying flaws, they are trying to find scapegoats. They need to grow up."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Rather than simply looking for anything that is in line with your rather depressing viewpoint, you would be better off trying to be a bit more objective and finding some balance. Others have mentioned this to you and TBbh without that your contributions to this thread are materially devalued.Joelsim wrote:"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Stevo 666 wrote:
That is exactly what you are doing.Joelsim wrote:And as regards the EU politicians wanting to damage the uk, let's blame anyone but the people who are causing this shall we?
I suspect he rather petulant reaction of Eurotw@t politicians is due to the fact the the Euro and the Eurozone are facing a major crisis now and over the next few years and rather than try to address the underlying flaws, they are trying to find scapegoats. They need to grow up.
Oh don't be so ridiculous. Their position has been clear since before the ref. That hasn't changed.
For someone who voted to remain you have really odd views.0 -
Stevo 666 wrote:
Rather than simply looking for anything that is in line with your rather depressing viewpoint, you would be better off trying to be a bit more objective and finding some balance. Others have mentioned this to you and TBbh without that your contributions to this thread are materially devalued.Joelsim wrote:
That's rich coming from someone who simply ignores what he doesn't want to see.0 -
Light reading indeed.Joelsim wrote:
A. paper that tries to ignore the fundamentals of supply and demand in relation to prices falling for exports. And one that thinks that Labour's national investment bank idea is a good one. Right..."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Stevo 666 wrote:
Light reading indeed.Joelsim wrote:
A. paper that tries to ignore the fundamentals of supply and demand in relation to prices falling for exports. And one that thinks that Labour's national investment bank idea is a good one. Right...
Germany has an investment bank and currently we support the EIB, indeed get about 8 billion per year from it.
Has having an investment bank harmed the German economy Stevee00?
looking ahead, we ll probably need to start one after we leave the EU........ so Labours plans, in one form or another may well happen.
Our continuation (or not) in Europol is also rather worrying too .... and continued membership means handing over some control of law enforcement to the EU.
cherry picking at its worst.0 -
No idea, maybe you can show me some data on the impact it has had in Germany?Lookyhere wrote:Stevo 666 wrote:
Light reading indeed.Joelsim wrote:
A. paper that tries to ignore the fundamentals of supply and demand in relation to prices falling for exports. And one that thinks that Labour's national investment bank idea is a good one. Right...
Germany has an investment bank and currently we support the EIB, indeed get about 8 billion per year from it.
Has having an investment bank harmed the German economy Stevee00?
looking ahead, we ll probably need to start one after we leave the EU........ so Labours plans, in one form or another may well happen.
Our continuation (or not) in Europol is also rather worrying too .... and continued membership means handing over some control of law enforcement to the EU.
cherry picking at its worst."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Yep, you are so far gone that you cannot even recognise that there is an issue with your unthinking bias. It needs people like me to redress the balance a bit.Joelsim wrote:"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
narbs wrote:Joelsim wrote:Question Time last night was a perfect indication of where the uk currently sits.
Shameful. And incredibly ignorant.
One thing's for sure I certainly will never be visiting Hartlepool.
I managed about ten minutes before turning off before I got too wound up.
And if the best standard of guest they can get is Conrad Black things are looking pretty bleak.
Just watched it, and I thought varoufakis was very good, which I was surprised by.0 -
Stevo 666 wrote:Lookyhere wrote:
No idea, maybe you can show me some data on the impact it has had in Germany?Stevo 666 wrote:
Light reading indeed.Joelsim wrote:
A. paper that tries to ignore the fundamentals of supply and demand in relation to prices falling for exports. And one that thinks that Labour's national investment bank idea is a good one. Right...[/quote]
Germany has an investment bank and currently we support the EIB, indeed get about 8 billion per year from it.
Has having an investment bank harmed the German economy Stevee00?
looking ahead, we ll probably need to start one after we leave the EU........ so Labours plans, in one form or another may well happen.
Our continuation (or not) in Europol is also rather worrying too .... and continued membership means handing over some control of law enforcement to the EU.
cherry picking at its worst.
you r the one who took the pee out of labours plans... justify it...
If these sort of things were such a bad idea, why have we got a 16% share in the EIB.....0 -
Lookyhere wrote:Stevo 666 wrote:Lookyhere wrote:
No idea, maybe you can show me some data on the impact it has had in Germany?Stevo 666 wrote:
Light reading indeed.Joelsim wrote:
A. paper that tries to ignore the fundamentals of supply and demand in relation to prices falling for exports. And one that thinks that Labour's national investment bank idea is a good one. Right...[/quote]
Germany has an investment bank and currently we support the EIB, indeed get about 8 billion per year from it.
Has having an investment bank harmed the German economy Stevee00?
looking ahead, we ll probably need to start one after we leave the EU........ so Labours plans, in one form or another may well happen.
Our continuation (or not) in Europol is also rather worrying too .... and continued membership means handing over some control of law enforcement to the EU.
cherry picking at its worst.
you r the one who took the pee out of labours plans... justify it...
If these sort of things were such a bad idea, why have we got a 16% share in the EIB.....
They're are only a bad idea as Steve thinks everything Labour say, do or suggest is risible.0 -
It appears that we won't be getting much. Funny that. Can't imagine why the EU are keeping to their freedoms. Especially now they know that there's a huge number of people in the uk wanting to remain part of the single market.
It's hard or no Brexit. As I've been saying.
http://www.politico.eu/article/eu-set-f ... n-council/0 -
Joelsim wrote:It appears that we won't be getting much. Funny that. Can't imagine why the EU are keeping to their freedoms. Especially now they know that there's a huge number of people in the uk wanting to remain part of the single market.
It's hard or no Brexit. As I've been saying.
http://www.politico.eu/article/eu-set-f ... n-council/
We all have been saying it Joel. The thing is that 'No Brexit' aint gonna happen.0 -
Ballysmate wrote:Joelsim wrote:It appears that we won't be getting much. Funny that. Can't imagine why the EU are keeping to their freedoms. Especially now they know that there's a huge number of people in the uk wanting to remain part of the single market.
It's hard or no Brexit. As I've been saying.
http://www.politico.eu/article/eu-set-f ... n-council/
We all have been saying it Joel. The thing is that 'No Brexit' aint gonna happen.
Plenty of twists and turns left in this one yet Bally.0 -
I do worry about you come March/April, Joel. Hope your sky doesn't fall in and you chuck yourself into the Thames.
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Joelsim wrote:Ballysmate wrote:Joelsim wrote:It appears that we won't be getting much. Funny that. Can't imagine why the EU are keeping to their freedoms. Especially now they know that there's a huge number of people in the uk wanting to remain part of the single market.
It's hard or no Brexit. As I've been saying.
http://www.politico.eu/article/eu-set-f ... n-council/
We all have been saying it Joel. The thing is that 'No Brexit' aint gonna happen.
Plenty of twists and turns left in this one yet Bally.
OK let's spread our wings - let's explore the scenarios that could lead to no Brexit0 -
Surrey Commuter wrote:Joelsim wrote:Ballysmate wrote:Joelsim wrote:It appears that we won't be getting much. Funny that. Can't imagine why the EU are keeping to their freedoms. Especially now they know that there's a huge number of people in the uk wanting to remain part of the single market.
It's hard or no Brexit. As I've been saying.
http://www.politico.eu/article/eu-set-f ... n-council/
We all have been saying it Joel. The thing is that 'No Brexit' aint gonna happen.
Plenty of twists and turns left in this one yet Bally.
OK let's spread our wings - let's explore the scenarios that could lead to no Brexit
OK
Court rules that Parliament has to vote on A50. No party leader has indicated that they would consider voting contrary to the referendum result.
But say Parliament voted against and forgetting any social unrest and protest in the UK, what do you think our relationship with the EU would be. They would know that we were at best unwilling partners so what then? They would know that the Brexit campaign would only get stronger, so what would the future hold?0 -
Ballysmate wrote:Surrey Commuter wrote:Joelsim wrote:Ballysmate wrote:Joelsim wrote:It appears that we won't be getting much. Funny that. Can't imagine why the EU are keeping to their freedoms. Especially now they know that there's a huge number of people in the uk wanting to remain part of the single market.
It's hard or no Brexit. As I've been saying.
http://www.politico.eu/article/eu-set-f ... n-council/
We all have been saying it Joel. The thing is that 'No Brexit' aint gonna happen.
Plenty of twists and turns left in this one yet Bally.
OK let's spread our wings - let's explore the scenarios that could lead to no Brexit
OK
Court rules that Parliament has to vote on A50. No party leader has indicated that they would consider voting contrary to the referendum result.
But say Parliament voted against and forgetting any social unrest and protest in the UK, what do you think our relationship with the EU would be. They would know that we were at best unwilling partners so what then? They would know that the Brexit campaign would only get stronger, so what would the future hold?
There are many factors involved.
1. Unrest as you say, whatever the vote.
2. House of Lords.
3. Court cases.
4. Conservative's reputation if they tank the economy.
5. Negotiating outcome.
6. State of economy in the next few months.
The objective surely is to delay, delay, delay until Brexit is shown for what it is. Currently a large majority want to remain in the SM, but there is still the issue that many leavers don't actually believe the economy will tank and that it'll hit them very hard in the pocket. As soon as it does, studies have shown that only a very small percentage are willing to have any loss of income to get rid of foreigners.0 -
Joelsim wrote:Ballysmate wrote:Surrey Commuter wrote:Joelsim wrote:Ballysmate wrote:Joelsim wrote:It appears that we won't be getting much. Funny that. Can't imagine why the EU are keeping to their freedoms. Especially now they know that there's a huge number of people in the uk wanting to remain part of the single market.
It's hard or no Brexit. As I've been saying.
http://www.politico.eu/article/eu-set-f ... n-council/
We all have been saying it Joel. The thing is that 'No Brexit' aint gonna happen.
Plenty of twists and turns left in this one yet Bally.
OK let's spread our wings - let's explore the scenarios that could lead to no Brexit
OK
Court rules that Parliament has to vote on A50. No party leader has indicated that they would consider voting contrary to the referendum result.
But say Parliament voted against and forgetting any social unrest and protest in the UK, what do you think our relationship with the EU would be. They would know that we were at best unwilling partners so what then? They would know that the Brexit campaign would only get stronger, so what would the future hold?
There are many factors involved.
1. Unrest as you say, whatever the vote.
2. House of Lords.
3. Court cases.
4. Conservative's reputation if they tank the economy.
5. Negotiating outcome.
6. State of economy in the next few months.
The objective surely is to delay, delay, delay until Brexit is shown for what it is. Currently a large majority want to remain in the SM, but there is still the issue that many leavers don't actually believe the economy will tank and that it'll hit them very hard in the pocket. As soon as it does, studies have shown that only a very small percentage are willing to have any loss of income to get rid of foreigners.
Joel, in my scenario, I was assuming that A50 had been prevented. How would you think our future membership and dealings with our EU partners would be affected?0
