BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴

Stevo_666

Maybe if this is as well written and as factually accurate as you and Joel say, this was an opportunity to convert a few Brexiteer heathens by publishing it in the sort of papers that some papers that they may be more likely to read.

However the most likely explanation is just some smartarse leftie journo preaching to the converted.

briantrumpet

Stevo 666 wrote:

However the most likely explanation is just some smartarse leftie journo preaching to the converted.

Of course, no-one could ever accuse a DM or DT smartarse rightie journo of preaching to the converted.

bendertherobot

Wallace and Gromit wrote:

Joelsim wrote:

As I said, there are many factors at play in the process which are as yet undecided. It isn't even known if we can trigger A50 and still pull out of that trigger. That, in fact, is the whole basis of the court case that is happening at the moment.

Isn't the ongoing court case to do with whether TM can trigger Article 50 without Parliamentary approval?

The reversibility of notification under Article 50 isn't something the UK courts can decide. The strongest argument I've seen to say it is reversible is that there is no wording in the Treaty to say that it isn't. But there's no wording to say it is reversible either. The ECJ would ultimately decide and the spirit of the Treaty is that once you've "resigned" the matter is out of the hands of the resigning country, so it seems unlikely - to me - that it would be reversible. I can't see the ECJ siding with the UK and giving carte-blanche to member states to resign, try for a better deal, un-resign etc.

Yep. Most law is interpreted to see what was meant. Of course, as you say, that interpretation moves away from us once we trigger it.

The real problem with the legal situation is that it's being reported on a very singular basis, can the Government trigger it or is a vote required. The Claimants in the case appear to have a very good one. Prerogative powers cannot and should not be used to take away rights. And Art 50 takes away rights, very many of them.

So, the question becomes a vote on what. It's not a vote. Not in the sense of having a debate and then a show of hands. It's likely that it will require legislation drawn up to empower the Prime/Minister to trigger Article 50. It's that legislation which will stand or fail depending on that vote.

The thing is, as has been alluded to, it's that debate that creates the real catch 22. In order to properly represent the UK's citizens there will been to be an informed debate, one which deals with our options and how we intend to go about doing it. Otherwise, what's the point in arguing about whether this is a prerogative or parliamentary decision at all, other than simple constitutional convention.

And, while the will of the people is Brexit, it's that question which is the real one. How do you achieve it in a manner which is consistent with either what the electorate wants or which properly represents their interests as a whole.

That was what happened. Someone decided to have a vote. It had some debate in Parliament when the Referendum Act was passed. That debate didn't deal with outcomes (as the Government has tried to claim). Whatever your side it's the most pee poor managed process in the modern political landscape. Utterly untested uncharted waters. And no one has brought a paddle or, it seems, a boat.

Stevo_666

briantrumpet wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

However the most likely explanation is just some smartarse leftie journo preaching to the converted.

Of course, no-one could ever accuse a DM or DT smartarse rightie journo of preaching to the converted.

Of course they do. But lefties are just as bad. That's before the rather irritating view thay take that they somehow have the moral high ground

briantrumpet

Stevo 666 wrote:

briantrumpet wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

However the most likely explanation is just some smartarse leftie journo preaching to the converted.

Of course, no-one could ever accuse a DM or DT smartarse rightie journo of preaching to the converted.

Of course they do. But lefties are just as bad. That's before the rather irritating view thay take that they somehow have the moral high ground

All sides are guilty of that, they just frame it in different ways. We tend to read stuff that reinforces our prejudices. I try to challenge mine by reading a range of news sources (DT, Graun, Indy, Le Monde, Private Eye and currently Washington Post), though I probably ought to include the Morning Star and The Sun (or DM or DE) to sample the outer reaches of reason/intelligence.

wallace_and_gromit

briantrumpet wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

However the most likely explanation is just some smartarse leftie journo preaching to the converted.

Of course, no-one could ever accuse a DM or DT smartarse rightie journo of preaching to the converted.

Taking the article on face value as an attempt to be vaguely serious, there are two obvious flaws:

1 - Its two choices, "remain as stupid" or "become more stupid" misses the third alternative: "become less stupid"! It seems reasonable to assume that leave voters would consider their vote to be a good one, so this third alternative is what they would go for.

2 - By casting "remain as stupid" as the obvious proxy for "remain in the EU" there is an automatic assumption that voting to leave is equivalent to being more stupid, which seems to lack the necessary even-handedness of serious journalism. Though obviously one wouldn't expect any kind of journalism from the Mirror. (Or any tabloid.)

joelsim

Wallace and Gromit wrote:

briantrumpet wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

However the most likely explanation is just some smartarse leftie journo preaching to the converted.

Of course, no-one could ever accuse a DM or DT smartarse rightie journo of preaching to the converted.

Taking the article on face value as an attempt to be vaguely serious, there are two obvious flaws:

1 - Its two choices, "remain as stupid" or "become more stupid" misses the third alternative: "become less stupid"! It seems reasonable to assume that leave voters would consider their vote to be a good one, so this third alternative is what they would go for.

2 - By casting "remain as stupid" as the obvious proxy for "remain in the EU" there is an automatic assumption that voting to leave is equivalent to being more stupid, which seems to lack the necessary even-handedness of serious journalism. Though obviously one wouldn't expect any kind of journalism from the Mirror. (Or any tabloid.)

If you think the grass is going to be greener when not in the SM and when nationalism and racism are given legitimacy then you are stupid. QED.

briantrumpet

Wallace and Gromit wrote:

briantrumpet wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

However the most likely explanation is just some smartarse leftie journo preaching to the converted.

Of course, no-one could ever accuse a DM or DT smartarse rightie journo of preaching to the converted.

Taking the article on face value as an attempt to be vaguely serious, there are two obvious flaws:

1 - Its two choices, "remain as stupid" or "become more stupid" misses the third alternative: "become less stupid"! It seems reasonable to assume that leave voters would consider their vote to be a good one, so this third alternative is what they would go for.

2 - By casting "remain as stupid" as the obvious proxy for "remain in the EU" there is an automatic assumption that voting to leave is equivalent to being more stupid, which seems to lack the necessary even-handedness of serious journalism. Though obviously one wouldn't expect any kind of journalism from the Mirror. (Or any tabloid.)

Serious journalism also has a duty, from time to time, to be provocative. And very little journalism, in fact, is truly even-handed: as soon as interpretation of 'facts' is entered into, it's done from a perspective. If it weren't, there would be no market for different newspapers. It's healthy that there is a range of views, though somewhat depressing that so much of it deliberately and cynically targets our basest instincts.

wallace_and_gromit

Joelsim wrote:

If you think the grass is going to be greener when not in the SM and when nationalism and racism are given legitimacy then you are stupid. QED.

Obviously, I was being charitable when I said I'd assume the article was an attempt at serious journalism. It clearly wasn't. It was just a Mirror hack demonstrating that they are not as clever as they think they are.

briantrumpet

Wallace and Gromit wrote:

Obviously, I was being charitable when I said I'd assume the article was an attempt at serious journalism.

Equally obviously, it's not serious journalism, any more than parliamentary sketch writers are trying to compete with Hansard.

joelsim

The 3 Tory Brexiteers have found a way to fix the banking system - ship it to mainland Europe.

Clever stuff.

wallace_and_gromit

briantrumpet wrote:

Equally obviously, it's not serious journalism...

Well obviously. It was in the Mirror!

So we have someone saying that leave voters are stupid in a rather roundabout way. I hope they didn't get paid for that stunning opinion piece. Joel would have said it much more concisely for free!

wallace_and_gromit

Joelsim wrote:

The 3 Tory Brexiteers have found a way to fix the banking system - ship it to mainland Europe.

Clever stuff.

Joking aside, it does give me pause for thought when the Guardian is demanding that measures must be taken to keep the bankers, having likened them to the antichrist since 2008.

Stevo_666

S

Joelsim wrote:

The 3 Tory Brexiteers have found a way to fix the banking system - ship it to mainland Europe.

Clever stuff.

A bit facetious maybe but also pretty ironic given the state of the European banking system. The threats to the Italian banking systems and the huge strains caused by the 'one size does not fit all' nature of the Euro combined with the lack of true political union to make it work, will eventually be the downfall of the Euro as I've said before.

That is very bad news for the EU. The UK may well start to be a safe haven for banking when the Euro crisis cones to a head and the banking industry is aware of the risks.

Stevo_666

Wallace and Gromit wrote:

Joelsim wrote:

The 3 Tory Brexiteers have found a way to fix the banking system - ship it to mainland Europe.

Clever stuff.

Joking aside, it does give me pause for thought when the Guardian is demanding that measures must be taken to keep the bankers, having likened them to the antichrist since 2008.

Very amusing watching a bunch of lefties banging on about the importance of business in the UK. Especially banking business Either they were talking crap before or they're talking crap now...

ukiboy

Stevo 666 wrote:

briantrumpet wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

However the most likely explanation is just some smartarse leftie journo preaching to the converted.

Of course, no-one could ever accuse a DM or DT smartarse rightie journo of preaching to the converted.

Of course they do. But lefties are just as bad. That's before the rather irritating view thay take that they somehow have the moral high ground

Surely lefties aren't just as bad!?! They are virtuous decent folk one and all aren't they? Apart from Diane Abbott and Shami Chakrabatti of course, who say one thing and then, with their immense wealth, send their sprogs to private schools....
Oh wait a minute, perhaps more of these lefties are like that too....

joelsim

From the 2nd best country to invest in to 7th in just a quarter.

And a currency not being outperformed by the extremely weak Kawacha from Malawi.

It's all going a bit Pete Tong.

The one overrriding thing that's come out of this shambles is to keep nationalists away from government, their judgement is completely impaired.

Stevo_666

Joelsim wrote:

From the 2nd best country to invest in to 7th in just a quarter.

Link please?

joelsim

Stevo 666 wrote:

Joelsim wrote:

From the 2nd best country to invest in to 7th in just a quarter.

Link please?

http://economia.icaew.com/news/october- ... investment

Whichever way you look, the world is now betting against us.

RideOnTime

joelsim

And when A50 is triggered, total meltdown.

RideOnTime

joelsim

And now it's all Remoaners' fault for talking the country down, or Carney.

Even though it was all laid our clearly before the vote.

I have to say it's all happening far more quickly than I expected it to.

ballysmate

Joelsim wrote:

And now it's all Remoaners' fault for talking the country down, or Carney.

Even though it was all laid our clearly before the vote.

I have to say it's all happening far more quickly than I expected it to.

coopster_the_1st

Joelsim wrote:

And when A50 is triggered, total meltdown.

I'm expecting your first post when it is triggered will be you going into total meltdown, not a lot else.

surrey_commuter

Joelsim wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

Joelsim wrote:

From the 2nd best country to invest in to 7th in just a quarter.

Link please?

http://economia.icaew.com/news/october- ... investment

Whichever way you look, the world is now betting against us.

There is a lot more to that article than the bit you quoted. Anyway there will be a wholes series of bad things happening. There is no need for a micro level update as we all agree on the direction of travel.

surrey_commuter

Joelsim wrote:

And when A50 is triggered, total meltdown.

No it won't- the markets are price in forward events. This is why in the case of unforeseen events you get sudden market corrections. For instance FX has now priced in hard Brexit.

anyway as I keep saying this is economics, there will not be a meltdown there will be a reduction in the rate of growth. Most people will not notice the difference but over a long period of time govt spending will be lower than it could have been and taxes will be higher. This is why there will be no insurrection as the average Joe can not get his head around the concept of him being several thousands of pounds a year better off if his grandfather had voted remain back in 2016.

joelsim

Coopster the 1st wrote:

Joelsim wrote:

And when A50 is triggered, total meltdown.

I'm expecting your first post when it is triggered will be you going into total meltdown, not a lot else.

You wouldn't expect much else because you're a blinkered muppet.

Stevo_666

Joelsim wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

Joelsim wrote:

From the 2nd best country to invest in to 7th in just a quarter.

Link please?

http://economia.icaew.com/news/october- ... investment

Whichever way you look, the world is now betting against us.

Caused by uncertainty over Brexit. Implying that once the situation becomes clearer, it will improve again. Its expected that uncertainty will cause some to pause.

The uncertainty certainly hasn't stopped UK based BAT proceeding with a massive corporate acquisition.

surrey_commuter

Anyway let's try and keep this thread forwards looking.

My understanding was that the WTO expressly forbade countries from compensating companies/industries from tariffs. If so how can TM give assurances to Nissan and why would they listen? What am I not getting?

On the plus side if I am right then the farmers stand to get totally farked... or in the real (medieval) world we will end up with no trade deals so the great and the good can keep getting their mult-million pound subsidies.