BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴

TheBigBean

I'd just like a newspaper that can report on a factual well researched basis. Some people suggest this is the FT, but whenever I read about anything I know about in FT, it doesn't fit this category. Plus there is no sport in the FT.

rick_chasey

According to @EuropeElects, new Nexit poll just came out - first one since Brexit:

Remain: 68% (up 17%)
Leave: 32% (down 17%).

Not such good news for those pinning their hopes on the disintegration of the EU as a result of Brexit.

rick_chasey

TheBigBean wrote:

I'd just like a newspaper that can report on a factual well researched basis. Some people suggest this is the FT, but whenever I read about anything I know about in FT, it doesn't fit this category. Plus there is no sport in the FT.

FT now does a small amount of sport, and I have found the FT to be a lot more accurate than most in areas I know a bit about.

briantrumpet

Rick Chasey wrote:

According to @EuropeElects, new Nexit poll just came out - first one since Brexit:

Remain: 68% (up 17%)
Leave: 32% (down 17%).

Not such good news for those pinning their hopes on the disintegration of the EU as a result of Brexit.

It's one of the things that really sticks in the craw - the glee with which some of the more rabid anti-EU press greet news that might presage the demise of an institution that has overseen the longest peace and greatest prosperity the Europe has ever seen, for all the many faults of the EU.

joelsim

Reminder of the reality of negotiating trade deals.

https://www.facebook.com/48AndBeyond/po ... 6378652860

wallace_and_gromit

briantrumpet wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

According to @EuropeElects, new Nexit poll just came out - first one since Brexit:

Remain: 68% (up 17%)
Leave: 32% (down 17%).

Not such good news for those pinning their hopes on the disintegration of the EU as a result of Brexit.

It's one of the things that really sticks in the craw - the glee with which some of the more rabid anti-EU press greet news that might presage the demise of an institution that has overseen the longest peace and greatest prosperity the Europe has ever seen, for all the many faults of the EU.

I've not read anything about the demise of NATO.

briantrumpet

Wallace and Gromit wrote:

briantrumpet wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

According to @EuropeElects, new Nexit poll just came out - first one since Brexit:

Remain: 68% (up 17%)
Leave: 32% (down 17%).

Not such good news for those pinning their hopes on the disintegration of the EU as a result of Brexit.

It's one of the things that really sticks in the craw - the glee with which some of the more rabid anti-EU press greet news that might presage the demise of an institution that has overseen the longest peace and greatest prosperity the Europe has ever seen, for all the many faults of the EU.

I've not read anything about the demise of NATO.

Greece and Turkey were both in NATO in 1974...

bobmcstuff

Rick Chasey wrote:

TheBigBean wrote:

I'd just like a newspaper that can report on a factual well researched basis. Some people suggest this is the FT, but whenever I read about anything I know about in FT, it doesn't fit this category. Plus there is no sport in the FT.

FT now does a small amount of sport, and I have found the FT to be a lot more accurate than most in areas I know a bit about.

I really like the FT as their news is a lot more fact-based than pretty much anyone else - they always include relevant facts and figures (they do have a lot of opinion pieces though which are obviously not like that. They signpost their opinion pieces quite clearly though). I did think it was fairly unbiased except my girlfriend pointed out it only reads like that if you're a fan of liberal economics (she's a bit of a pinko, although fortunately not a Corbyn fan).

Although I'm not sure if I will start paying for it once my MBA finishes, it's not the cheapest subscription!

wallace_and_gromit

briantrumpet wrote:

Greece and Turkey were both in NATO in 1974...

A weakness of NATO is that it doesn't really cover one member invading another!

I think there are exceptions to every rule. I don't recall EEC/EU membership being a particular help with bringing about peace in Northern Ireland, for example.

briantrumpet

Wallace and Gromit wrote:

briantrumpet wrote:

I think there are exceptions to every rule. I don't recall EEC/EU membership being a particular help with bringing about peace in Northern Ireland, for example.

Any wars between EEC/EU countries while they've been in it though? (I'd argue that NI is truly an exception, having been rumbling on for centuries, which was unlikely to stop the moment that the UK entered the EEC.) And how many prior to its inception? I'm no historian, but I think there might have been the odd skirmish in the 20th century...

Now, people might say that that's coincidental, but to dismiss it completely brings to mind the saying about "those who cannot remember the past..."

Stevo_666

Rick Chasey wrote:

According to @EuropeElects, new Nexit poll just came out - first one since Brexit:

Remain: 68% (up 17%)
Leave: 32% (down 17%).

Not such good news for those pinning their hopes on the disintegration of the EU as a result of Brexit.

I don't think Netherlands was ever a big risk. The three to watch are Austria, Hungary and Italy.

wallace_and_gromit

briantrumpet wrote:

Wallace and Gromit wrote:

briantrumpet wrote:

I think there are exceptions to every rule. I don't recall EEC/EU membership being a particular help with bringing about peace in Northern Ireland, for example.

Any wars between EEC/EU countries while they've been in it though? (I'd argue that NI is truly an exception, having been rumbling on for centuries, which was unlikely to stop the moment that the UK entered the EEC.) And how many prior to its inception? I'm no historian, but I think there might have been the odd skirmish in the 20th century...

Now, people might say that that's coincidental, but to dismiss it completely brings to mind the saying about "those who cannot remember the past..."

Fair points...

I do wonder how much use the EU will be if ever threatened seriously by the Russians though.

joelsim

Wallace and Gromit wrote:

briantrumpet wrote:

Wallace and Gromit wrote:

briantrumpet wrote:

I think there are exceptions to every rule. I don't recall EEC/EU membership being a particular help with bringing about peace in Northern Ireland, for example.

Any wars between EEC/EU countries while they've been in it though? (I'd argue that NI is truly an exception, having been rumbling on for centuries, which was unlikely to stop the moment that the UK entered the EEC.) And how many prior to its inception? I'm no historian, but I think there might have been the odd skirmish in the 20th century...

Now, people might say that that's coincidental, but to dismiss it completely brings to mind the saying about "those who cannot remember the past..."

Fair points...

I do wonder how much use the EU will be if ever threatened seriously by the Russians though.

The US would step in if there are any squirmishes

TheBigBean

Wallace and Gromit wrote:

briantrumpet wrote:

Wallace and Gromit wrote:

briantrumpet wrote:

I think there are exceptions to every rule. I don't recall EEC/EU membership being a particular help with bringing about peace in Northern Ireland, for example.

Any wars between EEC/EU countries while they've been in it though? (I'd argue that NI is truly an exception, having been rumbling on for centuries, which was unlikely to stop the moment that the UK entered the EEC.) And how many prior to its inception? I'm no historian, but I think there might have been the odd skirmish in the 20th century...

Now, people might say that that's coincidental, but to dismiss it completely brings to mind the saying about "those who cannot remember the past..."

Fair points...

I do wonder how much use the EU will be if ever threatened seriously by the Russians though.

Like the knock and run it has done on Ukraine?

surrey_commuter

Joelsim wrote:

Wallace and Gromit wrote:

briantrumpet wrote:

Wallace and Gromit wrote:

briantrumpet wrote:

I think there are exceptions to every rule. I don't recall EEC/EU membership being a particular help with bringing about peace in Northern Ireland, for example.

Any wars between EEC/EU countries while they've been in it though? (I'd argue that NI is truly an exception, having been rumbling on for centuries, which was unlikely to stop the moment that the UK entered the EEC.) And how many prior to its inception? I'm no historian, but I think there might have been the odd skirmish in the 20th century...

Now, people might say that that's coincidental, but to dismiss it completely brings to mind the saying about "those who cannot remember the past..."

Fair points...

I do wonder how much use the EU will be if ever threatened seriously by the Russians though.

The US would step in if there are any squirmishes

Can't see us rushing into a war with Russia over Lithuania - even if we had the means

joelsim

This is too funny.

Iain Duncan Smith: "The three critical reasons the pound has fallen have nothing to do with the EU" (HT @JolyonMaugham)

https://twitter.com/jamesrbuk/status/787934094210531328

surrey_commuter

Joelsim wrote:

This is too funny.

Iain Duncan Smith: "The three critical reasons the pound has fallen have nothing to do with the EU" (HT @JolyonMaugham)

https://twitter.com/jamesrbuk/status/787934094210531328

But it is not funny. The interesting question is whether he believes that, and by extension whether the other hardliners do. Actually it would not matter as they would not care.

And in fairness to him if Hillary wins the dollar will strengthen and that will be a weakening of the pound that has nothing to do with leaving the EU.

Which brings me round Ina circle to say he is right -it has nothing to do with the EU.

joelsim

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Joelsim wrote:

This is too funny.

Iain Duncan Smith: "The three critical reasons the pound has fallen have nothing to do with the EU" (HT @JolyonMaugham)

https://twitter.com/jamesrbuk/status/787934094210531328

But it is not funny. The interesting question is whether he believes that, and by extension whether the other hardliners do. Actually it would not matter as they would not care.

And in fairness to him if Hillary wins the dollar will strengthen and that will be a weakening of the pound that has nothing to do with leaving the EU.

Which brings me round Ina circle to say he is right -it has nothing to do with the EU.

Ok, let's add in every other currency then.

surrey_commuter

Joelsim wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Joelsim wrote:

This is too funny.

Iain Duncan Smith: "The three critical reasons the pound has fallen have nothing to do with the EU" (HT @JolyonMaugham)

https://twitter.com/jamesrbuk/status/787934094210531328

But it is not funny. The interesting question is whether he believes that, and by extension whether the other hardliners do. Actually it would not matter as they would not care.

And in fairness to him if Hillary wins the dollar will strengthen and that will be a weakening of the pound that has nothing to do with leaving the EU.

Which brings me round Ina circle to say he is right -it has nothing to do with the EU.

Ok, let's add in every other currency then.

Does he name the three main reasons?

Technically he is right - it is not because of the EU. It is because we voted to leave and then chose a scorched earth attitude towards leaving.

joelsim

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Joelsim wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Joelsim wrote:

This is too funny.

Iain Duncan Smith: "The three critical reasons the pound has fallen have nothing to do with the EU" (HT @JolyonMaugham)

https://twitter.com/jamesrbuk/status/787934094210531328

But it is not funny. The interesting question is whether he believes that, and by extension whether the other hardliners do. Actually it would not matter as they would not care.

And in fairness to him if Hillary wins the dollar will strengthen and that will be a weakening of the pound that has nothing to do with leaving the EU.

Which brings me round Ina circle to say he is right -it has nothing to do with the EU.

Ok, let's add in every other currency then.

Does he name the three main reasons?

Technically he is right - it is not because of the EU. It is because we voted to leave and then chose a scorched earth attitude towards leaving.

Technically.

Stevo_666

There are arguments that Sterling was overvalued prior to the referendum and that Brexit news was a catalyst for the adjustment.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/why-the-plummeting-pound-sterling-is-good-news-for-britain-a7353846.html

There is also the possibility that the weaker pound will help reduce the current account deficit further.

rick_chasey

Yeah because healthy economies always have big currency devaluations.

Sure, long term lower rates will make some exports seem cheaper, but, as I've explained plenty of times before, UK exports are not as responsive to the exchange rate as imports are, so for a while it's going to be painful.

finchy

Wallace and Gromit wrote:

briantrumpet wrote:

Wallace and Gromit wrote:

briantrumpet wrote:

I think there are exceptions to every rule. I don't recall EEC/EU membership being a particular help with bringing about peace in Northern Ireland, for example.

Any wars between EEC/EU countries while they've been in it though? (I'd argue that NI is truly an exception, having been rumbling on for centuries, which was unlikely to stop the moment that the UK entered the EEC.) And how many prior to its inception? I'm no historian, but I think there might have been the odd skirmish in the 20th century...

Now, people might say that that's coincidental, but to dismiss it completely brings to mind the saying about "those who cannot remember the past..."

Fair points...

I do wonder how much use the EU will be if ever threatened seriously by the Russians though.

Population of Russia - 144 million
Russian GDP - $1.133 tn
% of Russian exports bought by EU countries - 51%

Population of the EU - 510 million
EU's GDP - $19.205 tn

The EU has a far bigger population than Russia, and could mobilise larger forces than the Russians (who are now focusing on cutting troop numbers and having a more highly trained and better equipped army). Even if the Russians were able to advance into parts of Central/Eastern Europe, the EU could cripple Russia by economic sanctions alone.

Stevo_666

Rick Chasey wrote:

Yeah because healthy economies always have big currency devaluations.

Sure, long term lower rates will make some exports seem cheaper, but, as I've explained plenty of times before, UK exports are not as responsive to the exchange rate as imports are, so for a while it's going to be painful.

Currencies can still be over valued for a period. In 2015 the IMF estimated that Sterling was over valued by up to 20%.

I don't recall seeing any convincing explanation as to why exports are less responsive to exchange rates than imports.

joelsim

Stevo 666 wrote:

There are arguments that Sterling was overvalued prior to the referendum and that Brexit news was a catalyst for the adjustment.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/why-the-plummeting-pound-sterling-is-good-news-for-britain-a7353846.html

There is also the possibility that the weaker pound will help reduce the current account deficit further.

You have to balance that with the fact that many of the (larger ticket price) items that are made in the uk also include a good proportion of imported components.

And the fact that what we import as consumers will be more expensive.

I'm not sure the devaluation will have a massive effect, fewer goods coming in but total value maintained.

Stevo_666

Italy is the one that the EU needs to pay close attention to: if they leave the Euro and/or the EU, its game over.
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/8468/italy-euro
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/aug/06/matteo-renzi-italy-referendum-banks-brexit
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-07-05/the-eu-s-inflexible-bank-rules-risk-an-italian-brexit

Stevo_666

Joelsim wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

There are arguments that Sterling was overvalued prior to the referendum and that Brexit news was a catalyst for the adjustment.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/why-the-plummeting-pound-sterling-is-good-news-for-britain-a7353846.html

There is also the possibility that the weaker pound will help reduce the current account deficit further.

You have to balance that with the fact that many of the (larger ticket price) items that are made in the uk also include a good proportion of imported components.

And the fact that what we import as consumers will be more expensive.

I'm not sure the devaluation will have a massive effect, fewer goods coming in but total value maintained.

Approx 80% of the UK economy is services and a large proportion of our exports are services, so don't include imported 'componenents'.

As for products, if you are selling at a profit then the currency impact will be greater for the finished goods. That is before you taken into account that the wages component of the product cost will be largely UK/sterling denominated.

Stevo_666

Stevo 666 wrote:

Italy is the one that the EU needs to pay close attention to: if they leave the Euro and/or the EU, its game over.
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/8468/italy-euro
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/aug/06/matteo-renzi-italy-referendum-banks-brexit
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-07-05/the-eu-s-inflexible-bank-rules-risk-an-italian-brexit

Correction, looks as if the main risk is an Italian withdrawal from the Euro, not the EU:
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-10-17/will-italy-leave-the-eu-follow-the-money

Still pretty catastrophic if it happens. The inflexibility of the Euro and its debilitating effect on Southern European competitiveness and unemployment levels is not going to go away.

joelsim

Stevo 666 wrote:

Joelsim wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

There are arguments that Sterling was overvalued prior to the referendum and that Brexit news was a catalyst for the adjustment.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/why-the-plummeting-pound-sterling-is-good-news-for-britain-a7353846.html

There is also the possibility that the weaker pound will help reduce the current account deficit further.

You have to balance that with the fact that many of the (larger ticket price) items that are made in the uk also include a good proportion of imported components.

And the fact that what we import as consumers will be more expensive.

I'm not sure the devaluation will have a massive effect, fewer goods coming in but total value maintained.

Approx 80% of the UK economy is services and a large proportion of our exports are services, so don't include imported 'componenents'.

As for products, if you are selling at a profit then the currency impact will be greater for the finished goods. That is before you taken into account that the wages component of the product cost will be largely UK/sterling denominated.

I understand that but having a tariff on the cost isn't going to work. There also appears to be plenty of high ticket items that we have to import, the EU/world can simply choose a different brand.

joelsim

Do you know that only 15% of our imports are from countries that don't already have a trade agreement with the EU?