BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴

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Comments

  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 21,919
    You're referencing the IMF report in which it admitted that its growth forecast was wrong for this year as it had been overly pessimistic in its Brexit predictions? Yes, it also trimmed growth for next year, but I think most people just rolled their eyes, as you would, when someone just admits that the last dead cert may have been completely wrong, but the next one is a sure thing.

    As I associate the IMF with being consistently wrong I wondered whether that was a bit unfair, so did some research this week. I mean they probably have got some things right, but there are some fairly notable failures.
  • joelsim
    joelsim Posts: 7,552
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    Joelsim wrote:
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    Joelsim wrote:
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    Joelsim wrote:
    Brexiter annoyed by people pointing out that thing they were told would happen ‘is happening’



    Brexit supporters are furious that people keep pointing out that the things they were told would happen if we voted to leave the EU are now actually happening.

    In a week in which the IMF cut the UK’s 2017 growth forecast by 0.9% and economic activity dropped to its lowest level since 2009, Brexiters are furious they are being asked to take a cursory look at the news.
    Not to Fujitsu it isn't.

    And yet our growth forecasts are still comparable to growth forecasts for our major European competitors. Clearly words such as 'doomed' and 'disaster' are relative terms.

    Erm.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37583196
    Cant see any comparison with our competitors in that link.

    Well no one else got downgraded like we did by the IMF last week.
    Try addressing point about growth rates. That was the point I was making, that even after the bad news, we are still forecast to grow in line with other major Euro economies.

    Anything to say about that?

    And we were forecast to grow 1% more in 2017. That's twice the level of drop that the leaked budget forecast is based on, and we haven't left the single market yet.

    Come on fella, you're an accountant, surely you can work that one out.
  • joelsim
    joelsim Posts: 7,552
    TheBigBean wrote:
    You're referencing the IMF report in which it admitted that its growth forecast was wrong for this year as it had been overly pessimistic in its Brexit predictions? Yes, it also trimmed growth for next year, but I think most people just rolled their eyes, as you would, when someone just admits that the last dead cert may have been completely wrong, but the next one is a sure thing.

    As I associate the IMF with being consistently wrong I wondered whether that was a bit unfair, so did some research this week. I mean they probably have got some things right, but there are some fairly notable failures.

    It had been overly pessimistic, so it then slashed growth by 1%?????

    Erm.
  • joelsim
    joelsim Posts: 7,552
    The latest output figures are starting to show declines, in line with how you'd expect it to be as last quarter included very strong growth in May/June.

    If you honestly think that the economy was ever going to go bang, crash, wallop in the space of a month or two then you need to brush up on your history. It's like an oil tanker.
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,425
    Joelsim wrote:
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    Joelsim wrote:
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    Joelsim wrote:
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    Joelsim wrote:
    Brexiter annoyed by people pointing out that thing they were told would happen ‘is happening’



    Brexit supporters are furious that people keep pointing out that the things they were told would happen if we voted to leave the EU are now actually happening.

    In a week in which the IMF cut the UK’s 2017 growth forecast by 0.9% and economic activity dropped to its lowest level since 2009, Brexiters are furious they are being asked to take a cursory look at the news.
    Not to Fujitsu it isn't.

    And yet our growth forecasts are still comparable to growth forecasts for our major European competitors. Clearly words such as 'doomed' and 'disaster' are relative terms.

    Erm.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37583196
    Cant see any comparison with our competitors in that link.

    Well no one else got downgraded like we did by the IMF last week.
    Try addressing point about growth rates. That was the point I was making, that even after the bad news, we are still forecast to grow in line with other major Euro economies.

    Anything to say about that?

    And we were forecast to grow 1% more in 2017. That's twice the level of drop that the leaked budget forecast is based on, and we haven't left the single market yet.

    Come on fella, you're an accountant, surely you can work that one out.
    Read what I said above. It is referring to growth rates after the downgrade.
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • joelsim
    joelsim Posts: 7,552
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    Joelsim wrote:
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    Joelsim wrote:
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    Joelsim wrote:
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    Joelsim wrote:
    Brexiter annoyed by people pointing out that thing they were told would happen ‘is happening’



    Brexit supporters are furious that people keep pointing out that the things they were told would happen if we voted to leave the EU are now actually happening.

    In a week in which the IMF cut the UK’s 2017 growth forecast by 0.9% and economic activity dropped to its lowest level since 2009, Brexiters are furious they are being asked to take a cursory look at the news.
    Not to Fujitsu it isn't.

    And yet our growth forecasts are still comparable to growth forecasts for our major European competitors. Clearly words such as 'doomed' and 'disaster' are relative terms.

    Erm.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37583196
    Cant see any comparison with our competitors in that link.

    Well no one else got downgraded like we did by the IMF last week.
    Try addressing point about growth rates. That was the point I was making, that even after the bad news, we are still forecast to grow in line with other major Euro economies.

    Anything to say about that?

    And we were forecast to grow 1% more in 2017. That's twice the level of drop that the leaked budget forecast is based on, and we haven't left the single market yet.

    Come on fella, you're an accountant, surely you can work that one out.
    Read what I said above. It is referring to growth rates after the downgrade.

    Steve, stop being a muppet, nothing has filtered through yet, not even the effect of Sterling's crash unless you've bought foreign currency. Over the next few months we'll see prices increase, jobs starting to go, inflation rising eat al. I very much doubt we'll see to much in the figures for next quarter, it's too early.

    What we do know is that petrol is just going up, supermarkets and other retailers will gradually push up prices on imported goods from now on, the trade deficit actually widened significantly last month which is very worrying.
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 21,919
    Joelsim wrote:
    TheBigBean wrote:
    You're referencing the IMF report in which it admitted that its growth forecast was wrong for this year as it had been overly pessimistic in its Brexit predictions? Yes, it also trimmed growth for next year, but I think most people just rolled their eyes, as you would, when someone just admits that the last dead cert may have been completely wrong, but the next one is a sure thing.

    As I associate the IMF with being consistently wrong I wondered whether that was a bit unfair, so did some research this week. I mean they probably have got some things right, but there are some fairly notable failures.

    It had been overly pessimistic, so it then slashed growth by 1%?????

    Erm.

    The International Monetary Fund has predicted the UK will be the fastest growing of the G7 leading industrial countries this year and accepted that its prediction of a post-Brexit-vote financial crash has proved to be overly pessimistic.

    Same report you referenced just presented in a more positive fashion.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... rexit-vote
  • joelsim
    joelsim Posts: 7,552
    Guess what. ITV news has just had a feature saying exactly what I've just said.
  • joelsim
    joelsim Posts: 7,552
    TheBigBean wrote:
    Joelsim wrote:
    TheBigBean wrote:
    You're referencing the IMF report in which it admitted that its growth forecast was wrong for this year as it had been overly pessimistic in its Brexit predictions? Yes, it also trimmed growth for next year, but I think most people just rolled their eyes, as you would, when someone just admits that the last dead cert may have been completely wrong, but the next one is a sure thing.

    As I associate the IMF with being consistently wrong I wondered whether that was a bit unfair, so did some research this week. I mean they probably have got some things right, but there are some fairly notable failures.

    It had been overly pessimistic, so it then slashed growth by 1%?????

    Erm.

    The International Monetary Fund has predicted the UK will be the fastest growing of the G7 leading industrial countries this year and accepted that its prediction of a post-Brexit-vote financial crash has proved to be overly pessimistic.

    Same report you referenced just presented in a more positive fashion.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... rexit-vote

    You're clutching at straws. Nothing has filtered through yet as I said. It's just starting now. Prepare yourselves for a weakening economy, don't forget up until a week ago there had been no talk of hard Brexit.

    I can't actually believe I'm having to say this stuff to you.
  • joelsim
    joelsim Posts: 7,552
    Here you go.

    http://uk.businessinsider.com/hard-brex ... ro-2016-10
  • finchy
    finchy Posts: 6,686
    Joelsim wrote:
    You're clutching at straws. Nothing has filtered through yet as I said. It's just starting now. Prepare yourselves for a weakening economy, don't forget up until a week ago there had been no talk of hard Brexit.

    I can't actually believe I'm having to say this stuff to you.

    I wonder when any major currency last lost nearly 20% of its value in about 3 months? I can only see this slide continuing, on the back of weak investment.
  • joelsim
    joelsim Posts: 7,552
    finchy wrote:
    Joelsim wrote:
    You're clutching at straws. Nothing has filtered through yet as I said. It's just starting now. Prepare yourselves for a weakening economy, don't forget up until a week ago there had been no talk of hard Brexit.

    I can't actually believe I'm having to say this stuff to you.

    I wonder when any major currency last lost nearly 20% of its value in about 3 months? I can only see this slide continuing, on the back of weak investment.

    18.4% now. Trading like an emerging market currency.

    Guess what, Newsnight has been told that the govt is prepared to pay billions to the EU in return for market access.

    So, the deal is Mrs May and you 3 muppets.

    - you pay billions into the EU
    - you accept free movement
    - you can then have access to the free market

    So, as it is now, but you get no voice. And we promise not to tell any of the baying morons.

    Ha! What a bunch of f*cktards.
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,425
    Joelsim wrote:
    Steve, stop being a muppet, nothing has filtered through yet, not even the effect of Sterling's crash unless you've bought foreign currency. Over the next few months we'll see prices increase, jobs starting to go, inflation rising eat al. I very much doubt we'll see to much in the figures for next quarter, it's too early.

    What we do know is that petrol is just going up, supermarkets and other retailers will gradually push up prices on imported goods from now on, the trade deficit actually widened significantly last month which is very worrying.
    I don't know whether you don't understand or have totally closed your mind.

    What I referred to above are forecasts of future growth. You are referring to events you predict will happen in future. The forecasts I reference take into account what professional forecasters think will happen and they are still in the same ballpark as our Euro competitors.

    How many times do I have to say this?
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • joelsim
    joelsim Posts: 7,552
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    Joelsim wrote:
    Steve, stop being a muppet, nothing has filtered through yet, not even the effect of Sterling's crash unless you've bought foreign currency. Over the next few months we'll see prices increase, jobs starting to go, inflation rising eat al. I very much doubt we'll see to much in the figures for next quarter, it's too early.

    What we do know is that petrol is just going up, supermarkets and other retailers will gradually push up prices on imported goods from now on, the trade deficit actually widened significantly last month which is very worrying.
    I don't know whether you don't understand or have totally closed your mind.

    What I referred to above are forecasts of future growth. You are referring to events you predict will happen in future. The forecasts I reference take into account what professional forecasters think will happen and they are still in the same ballpark as our Euro competitors.

    How many times do I have to say this?

    And how many times do I need to say we were significantly ahead of our Euro competitors before all of this happened. We will now be broadly in line with them and then soon enough we'll be way below them.

    Let's see who is right shall we?
  • joelsim
    joelsim Posts: 7,552
    http://press.labour.org.uk/post/1516753 ... for-proper

    Progress.
  • joelsim
    joelsim Posts: 7,552
    Legal case briefing.

    https://www.bindmans.com/insight/brexit ... ring-brief
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 27,330
    Forecasts v Predictions?
    Both bullshit.
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • joelsim
    joelsim Posts: 7,552
    PBlakeney wrote:
    Forecasts v Predictions?
    Both bullshit.

    Educated guesses. No more than that.
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 27,330
    Joelsim wrote:
    PBlakeney wrote:
    Forecasts v Predictions?
    Both bullshit.

    Educated guesses. No more than that.
    Some of them are done to illicit profit though.
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • pinno
    pinno Posts: 52,329
    PBlakeney wrote:
    Joelsim wrote:
    PBlakeney wrote:
    Forecasts v Predictions?
    Both bullshit.

    Educated guesses. No more than that.
    Some of them are done to illicit profit though.

    Can you expand on that Blakey? Amazon/Starbucks/Google reference by any chance?
    seanoconn - gruagach craic!
  • bobmcstuff
    bobmcstuff Posts: 11,435
    UK 'may still have to pay into EU even after Brexit' - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-37627308
    Suzanne Evans, of UKIP, told Newsnight: "Laws, borders, money - when it comes to taking back control those were the Holy Trinity of the Brexit campaign. You can't have one without the other...

    "We have all the bargaining chips. There is noneed for Theresa May to capitulate on this and if she does try and capitulate on this I think she might very well soon find herself out of a job because that is not the Brexit the British people voted for."

    But John Redwood, the Conservative MP forWokingham and Brexit campaigner, dismissed suggestions the UK would end up paying for access to the single market.

    He said the UK should offer "very generously to carry on trading exactly as we are at the moment".

    "There's absolutely no need to pay them money to buy their imports - this is absurd," he added.

    Suzanne Evans seems very sure of what the British public voted for - I don't remember seeing the "holy trinity" on the ballot paper though, do you?

    John Redwood is in cloud cuckoo land. It seems clear to me that in purely economic terms yes, it probably does make sense for this arrangement to happen, but I don't understand how he thinks that is going to be politically acceptable. It's the "have your cake and eat it" fantasy Brexit.
  • bendertherobot
    bendertherobot Posts: 11,684
    Interesting territory now. The Government claims it has a mandate to carry out Brexit without a vote in Parliament. But the ramifications of the deal might be put to MP's and, given the noises being made, that seems right. And it does seem rather likely that the Milliband led group could cause real problems in that regard. So, who knew, probably a bit worse off, no money for the NHS but we can export jam and label our food.
    My blog: http://www.roubaixcycling.cc (kit reviews and other musings)
    https://twitter.com/roubaixcc
    Facebook? No. Just say no.
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    bobmcstuff wrote:
    UK 'may still have to pay into EU even after Brexit' - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-37627308
    Suzanne Evans, of UKIP, told Newsnight: "Laws, borders, money - when it comes to taking back control those were the Holy Trinity of the Brexit campaign. You can't have one without the other...

    "We have all the bargaining chips. There is noneed for Theresa May to capitulate on this and if she does try and capitulate on this I think she might very well soon find herself out of a job because that is not the Brexit the British people voted for."

    But John Redwood, the Conservative MP forWokingham and Brexit campaigner, dismissed suggestions the UK would end up paying for access to the single market.

    He said the UK should offer "very generously to carry on trading exactly as we are at the moment".

    "There's absolutely no need to pay them money to buy their imports - this is absurd," he added.

    Suzanne Evans seems very sure of what the British public voted for - I don't remember seeing the "holy trinity" on the ballot paper though, do you?

    John Redwood is in cloud cuckoo land. It seems clear to me that in purely economic terms yes, it probably does make sense for this arrangement to happen, but I don't understand how he thinks that is going to be politically acceptable. It's the "have your cake and eat it" fantasy Brexit.

    And that is the point I keep trying to make. The likes of Redwood are the powers behind the scene and they are barking mad. His opinion of our place in the world would be appropriate sat a point between the deaths of Nelson and Victoria.
  • bendertherobot
    bendertherobot Posts: 11,684
    The Mail and Express are stepping up their campaign against us Bremoaners Brewhingers and Bremaniacs
    My blog: http://www.roubaixcycling.cc (kit reviews and other musings)
    https://twitter.com/roubaixcc
    Facebook? No. Just say no.
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 27,330
    Pinno wrote:
    PBlakeney wrote:
    Joelsim wrote:
    PBlakeney wrote:
    Forecasts v Predictions?
    Both bullshit.

    Educated guesses. No more than that.
    Some of them are done to illicit profit though.

    Can you expand on that Blakey? Amazon/Starbucks/Google reference by any chance?
    A low level but undeniable example - https://www.theguardian.com/media/2005/ ... ng.mirror1
    Does anyone believe it to be an isolated example?
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 21,919
    You only have to look at the number of prosecutions for insider trading to know that it either doesn't happen, is tricky to prosecute or the FCA is inept.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Yeah sure traders. They're a bunch of screen jockeys. There's limited reason for them to be in the office at all to be honest, other then for the highbrow bantz and abuse of local pizza boys.

    In the rest of the city, like in any business you need face-to-face contact.

    On this & more (i.e. proximity to Europe vs rest of the world)

    CuhluTDUIAEmiKQ.jpg:large
    _
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    PBlakeney wrote:
    Pinno wrote:
    PBlakeney wrote:
    Joelsim wrote:
    PBlakeney wrote:
    Forecasts v Predictions?
    Both bullshit.

    Educated guesses. No more than that.
    Some of them are done to illicit profit though.

    Can you expand on that Blakey? Amazon/Starbucks/Google reference by any chance?
    A low level but undeniable example - https://www.theguardian.com/media/2005/ ... ng.mirror1
    Does anyone believe it to be an isolated example?

    Thursday 8 December 2005 07.20 GMT
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    saw Boris on the TV last night trying to incite a mob to march upon the Russian Embassy. I think it is fair to say that he has spent the last 3 months proving his policy of having his cake and eating it
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Yeah sure traders. They're a bunch of screen jockeys. There's limited reason for them to be in the office at all to be honest, other then for the highbrow bantz and abuse of local pizza boys.

    In the rest of the city, like in any business you need face-to-face contact.

    On this & more (i.e. proximity to Europe vs rest of the world)

    CuhluTDUIAEmiKQ.jpg:large

    Rick - these are sound arguments and it could be added that if these new markets were so open and tempting we would be there already.

    It is all so bleedin obvious that surely all of this was/is known already.

    So rather than venting on a forum reinforcing our own beliefs what should we do? would it make any difference if 10 million people joined the LibDems. Should we join our local Tory parties and directly influence the debate?

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