BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴
Comments
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Joelsim wrote:TheBigBean wrote:Rick Chasey wrote:This may be over simplistic but does it not take both sides to agree to grandfathering the trade arrangements?
Of course it does, but it is a two way thing and a hindrance to business for both countries for things to suddenly change. Plus I would expect a properly negotiated trade agreement to be better for both sides, so any gaming of the system would come later.
What you're bypassing is that there are 27 countries and only one needs to veto. We simply don't have a leg to stand on.
None of them have a veto on whether Mexico and UK decide to grandfather the existing trade agreement.0 -
TheBigBean wrote:I can't see a remotely rational discussion taking place with the EU. I can with Mexico and Korea though.
Yeah brilliant.
There's a reason UK trades a lot with Europe; they're closer and, let's face it, I'd much rather do business in a nation where I can have a 5pm meeting and still sleep in my own bed in London than a nation in literally a different continent.
In my limited experience of doing business in HK - everything is twice as slow because each side is waiting for the other to wake up.0 -
But that's got nothing to do with grandfathering. A deal with the EU is another discussion which has been gone over quite a bit.0
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Sure, but I addressed that earlier.
That takes two to tango and plenty won't want to tango.
Even nations like Aus have the UK over a barrel during the process because they know the UK really needs them!0 -
TheBigBean wrote:Grandfathering of trade agreements "might work".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37574598
I remember a lot of people banging on about how the UK would need to simultaneously negotiate all the existing trade deals the EU has. Grandfathering always seemed a touch more sensible. I would even go so far as to say this was a misrepresentation from the Remain side, but alleging that both sides might have been guilty of this is seen as poor form.
I'd like to rewatch the video of the Liverpool law professor and see how many of the problems he identified have already been solved. He maintained that every single law would need to be reviewed to check whether it relied on EU law, but a more pragmatic lawyer comes along and proposes simply writing all EU law into UK law and thus solves the problem in one fell swoop.
just read that article and by the end he is a lot less positive... the emphasis very much on "might"0 -
mrfpb wrote:TheBigBean wrote:I'm not a lawyer, so you would need to take up your argument with one. I'm guessing the issue is either (i) that the UK only passed certain laws because it was compelled to by the EU, and therefore the law should be disregarded as the UK is no longer in the EU (cue endless court cases) or (ii) that there is uncertainty whether all the direct regulations continue to apply. Either way the recent policy announcement solves the problems.
The UK would need to comply with regulations of any exported products wherever they go.
I think bender has more of a legal brain an dhe may chip in, but my understanding is that all the laws are on our statute books and will need to be explicitly repealed by Parlaiment if we don't want them or overwritten by more up to date laws as the need arises. We could as a nation just ignore them, as we will not be subject to the European Court of Justice that ultimately enforces them, but there is usually someone with an axe to grind who will insist on pushing the letter of the law thorough every process that is available if they think it will help them.
I agree with the above, the situation is closest to (i) for the laws I am aware of, I have posted before about the regulations I work with and they all exist as laws in their own right in the UK, and don't appear to rely on anything EU-related (these particular ones generally are made by the HSE under the authority they were given to do so by the 1974 HSAW Act). In fact if you didn't know that for example DSEAR implements the requirements of the EU ATEX Directive you wouldn't be able to tell just from reading the regulation (all the guidance mentions it though).0 -
Surrey Commuter wrote:TheBigBean wrote:Grandfathering of trade agreements "might work".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37574598
I remember a lot of people banging on about how the UK would need to simultaneously negotiate all the existing trade deals the EU has. Grandfathering always seemed a touch more sensible. I would even go so far as to say this was a misrepresentation from the Remain side, but alleging that both sides might have been guilty of this is seen as poor form.
I'd like to rewatch the video of the Liverpool law professor and see how many of the problems he identified have already been solved. He maintained that every single law would need to be reviewed to check whether it relied on EU law, but a more pragmatic lawyer comes along and proposes simply writing all EU law into UK law and thus solves the problem in one fell swoop.
just read that article and by the end he is a lot less positive... the emphasis very much on "might"
Hence why I quoted it above.
And yes, you are right that quotas play a part, but practical folk will find a way like dividing them all by X.0 -
Rick Chasey wrote:Sure, but I addressed that earlier.
That takes two to tango and plenty won't want to tango.
Even nations like Aus have the UK over a barrel during the process because they know the UK really needs them!
But there's no time to be over a barrell, it's either grandfather and try to extort later or disrupt all your own business with that country. No sane country would choose the latter.
Just because the EU is in a huff doesn't mean the rest of world needs to grind to a halt.0 -
TheBigBean wrote:Surrey Commuter wrote:TheBigBean wrote:Grandfathering of trade agreements "might work".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37574598
I remember a lot of people banging on about how the UK would need to simultaneously negotiate all the existing trade deals the EU has. Grandfathering always seemed a touch more sensible. I would even go so far as to say this was a misrepresentation from the Remain side, but alleging that both sides might have been guilty of this is seen as poor form.
I'd like to rewatch the video of the Liverpool law professor and see how many of the problems he identified have already been solved. He maintained that every single law would need to be reviewed to check whether it relied on EU law, but a more pragmatic lawyer comes along and proposes simply writing all EU law into UK law and thus solves the problem in one fell swoop.
just read that article and by the end he is a lot less positive... the emphasis very much on "might"
Hence why I quoted it above.
And yes, you are right that quotas play a part, but practical folk will find a way like dividing them all by X.
With the three idiots we have in charge of negotiations I can't see it being amicable0 -
TheBigBean wrote:Rick Chasey wrote:Sure, but I addressed that earlier.
That takes two to tango and plenty won't want to tango.
Even nations like Aus have the UK over a barrel during the process because they know the UK really needs them!
But there's no time to be over a barrell, it's either grandfather and try to extort later or disrupt all your own business with that country. No sane country would choose the latter.
Just because the EU is in a huff doesn't mean the rest of world needs to grind to a halt.
Well at least if we get the £6bn deal with Australia quickly we'll only be £348bn down on the EU deal. Add Mexico, Haiti and Mauritius and that'll add another few quid.
Mind you it'll probably be a £12bn deal by then, just through devaluation of Sterling.0 -
Surrey Commuter wrote:TheBigBean wrote:Surrey Commuter wrote:TheBigBean wrote:Grandfathering of trade agreements "might work".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37574598
I remember a lot of people banging on about how the UK would need to simultaneously negotiate all the existing trade deals the EU has. Grandfathering always seemed a touch more sensible. I would even go so far as to say this was a misrepresentation from the Remain side, but alleging that both sides might have been guilty of this is seen as poor form.
I'd like to rewatch the video of the Liverpool law professor and see how many of the problems he identified have already been solved. He maintained that every single law would need to be reviewed to check whether it relied on EU law, but a more pragmatic lawyer comes along and proposes simply writing all EU law into UK law and thus solves the problem in one fell swoop.
just read that article and by the end he is a lot less positive... the emphasis very much on "might"
Hence why I quoted it above.
And yes, you are right that quotas play a part, but practical folk will find a way like dividing them all by X.
With the three idiots we have in charge of negotiations I can't see it being amicable
Let's face it the European banks stand to make a killing out of London's misfortune.0 -
Joelsim wrote:
Let's face it the European banks stand to make a killing out of London's misfortune.
How?0 -
TheBigBean wrote:Joelsim wrote:
Let's face it the European banks stand to make a killing out of London's misfortune.
How?
Take your pick. As well as the potential loss of 35-70,000 jobs and the £10bn black hole in the tax revenue that's been widely reported this week.
https://www.ft.com/content/270bd234-849 ... 59a58ac7a5
http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-k-financi ... 1475746698
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/busin ... 93686.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... -k-can-get
https://www.ft.com/content/270bd234-849 ... 59a58ac7a50 -
Joelsim wrote:TheBigBean wrote:Joelsim wrote:
Let's face it the European banks stand to make a killing out of London's misfortune.
How?
Take your pick. As well as the potential loss of 35-70,000 jobs and the £10bn black hole in the tax revenue that's been widely reported this week.
https://www.ft.com/content/270bd234-849 ... 59a58ac7a5
http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-k-financi ... 1475746698
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/busin ... 93686.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... -k-can-get
https://www.ft.com/content/270bd234-849 ... 59a58ac7a5
That's about doom, gloom and despair in London. My question was how are the European banks going to make a killing. Imagine I'm a highly skilled finance guru, where am I going to go and how and am I going to make lots of money? Because right now, if there's going to be a siege in London, I'm thinking New York or somewhere in Asia would be better bets.0 -
TheBigBean wrote:Joelsim wrote:TheBigBean wrote:Joelsim wrote:
Let's face it the European banks stand to make a killing out of London's misfortune.
How?
Take your pick. As well as the potential loss of 35-70,000 jobs and the £10bn black hole in the tax revenue that's been widely reported this week.
https://www.ft.com/content/270bd234-849 ... 59a58ac7a5
http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-k-financi ... 1475746698
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/busin ... 93686.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... -k-can-get
https://www.ft.com/content/270bd234-849 ... 59a58ac7a5
That's about doom, gloom and despair in London. My question was how are the European banks going to make a killing. Imagine I'm a highly skilled finance guru, where am I going to go and how and am I going to make lots of money? Because right now, if there's going to be a siege in London, I'm thinking New York or somewhere in Asia would be better bets.
Maybe it should have been written the EU could make a killing out of London's misfortune.0 -
Joelsim wrote:TheBigBean wrote:Joelsim wrote:
Let's face it the European banks stand to make a killing out of London's misfortune.
How?
Take your pick. As well as the potential loss of 35-70,000 jobs and the £10bn black hole in the tax revenue that's been widely reported this week.
https://www.ft.com/content/270bd234-849 ... 59a58ac7a5
http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-k-financi ... 1475746698
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/busin ... 93686.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... -k-can-get
https://www.ft.com/content/270bd234-849 ... 59a58ac7a5
European financial centres stand to gain not European banks. The financial institutions will switch ops out of London and into the EU, they will not lose business. Also the vast majority of banks (we should really be talking financial institutions) are not British.0 -
i wonder how long before the BOE is buying Sterling to try and stop its slide into oblivion ? and/or super high interest rates?
if the BOE can be made independent, it can also be undone.
a UK Government deliberately taking us into an economic crisis, would be a first.0 -
That is a very poor analogy.Lookyhere wrote:Stevo 666 wrote:
Also interesting is the underlying logic that the EU has to 'punish' the UK to discourage others from trying leave. If the EU is such a great club to be in, why would they need to do that?
We ve chosen to leave the EU, therefore we lose our benefits (and apparently gain £350m per week to spend as we wish) its a very simple logic, applies to clubs, unions and organisations.
i doubt the AA/RAC give free recovery break down to people who dont renew their membership.
The AA/RAC relationship with its customers is pretty binary. Either you are in a contract with them for a year or you aren't. The UK-EU relationship is one of on-going trading and political relationships regardless of whether BREXIT happens. And is way more complex."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
What, like the mighty Deutsche Bank?Joelsim wrote:Surrey Commuter wrote:TheBigBean wrote:Surrey Commuter wrote:TheBigBean wrote:Grandfathering of trade agreements "might work".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37574598
I remember a lot of people banging on about how the UK would need to simultaneously negotiate all the existing trade deals the EU has. Grandfathering always seemed a touch more sensible. I would even go so far as to say this was a misrepresentation from the Remain side, but alleging that both sides might have been guilty of this is seen as poor form.
I'd like to rewatch the video of the Liverpool law professor and see how many of the problems he identified have already been solved. He maintained that every single law would need to be reviewed to check whether it relied on EU law, but a more pragmatic lawyer comes along and proposes simply writing all EU law into UK law and thus solves the problem in one fell swoop.
just read that article and by the end he is a lot less positive... the emphasis very much on "might"
Hence why I quoted it above.
And yes, you are right that quotas play a part, but practical folk will find a way like dividing them all by X.
With the three idiots we have in charge of negotiations I can't see it being amicable
Let's face it the European banks stand to make a killing out of London's misfortune."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Stevo 666 wrote:
That is a very poor analogy.Lookyhere wrote:Stevo 666 wrote:
Also interesting is the underlying logic that the EU has to 'punish' the UK to discourage others from trying leave. If the EU is such a great club to be in, why would they need to do that?
We ve chosen to leave the EU, therefore we lose our benefits (and apparently gain £350m per week to spend as we wish) its a very simple logic, applies to clubs, unions and organisations.
i doubt the AA/RAC give free recovery break down to people who dont renew their membership.
The AA/RAC relationship with its customers is pretty binary. Either you are in a contract with them for a year or you aren't. The UK-EU relationship is one of on-going trading and political relationships regardless of whether BREXIT happens. And is way more complex.
its exactly the same as the AA membership, your lot gave the electorate a binary choice, IN or OUT, Out means no benefits of membership.
if it were such a complex decision, then Cameron must have been a complete idiot to have wanted a referendum and TMay an even bigger one for continuing down this path.0 -
Despite pretty much every piece from esteemed publications highlighting the crazy decisions and attitude of this government, there are still some who can see no wrong in this Tory party.0
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Lookyhere wrote:Stevo 666 wrote:
That is a very poor analogy.Lookyhere wrote:Stevo 666 wrote:
Also interesting is the underlying logic that the EU has to 'punish' the UK to discourage others from trying leave. If the EU is such a great club to be in, why would they need to do that?
We ve chosen to leave the EU, therefore we lose our benefits (and apparently gain £350m per week to spend as we wish) its a very simple logic, applies to clubs, unions and organisations.
i doubt the AA/RAC give free recovery break down to people who dont renew their membership.
The AA/RAC relationship with its customers is pretty binary. Either you are in a contract with them for a year or you aren't. The UK-EU relationship is one of on-going trading and political relationships regardless of whether BREXIT happens. And is way more complex.
its exactly the same as the AA membership, your lot gave the electorate a binary choice, IN or OUT, Out means no benefits of membership.
if it were such a complex decision, then Cameron must have been a complete idiot to have wanted a referendum and TMay an even bigger one for continuing down this path.
But the UK Gov't see it as a bit like Sky. Cancel, say you're definitely going to leave, wait for the offers to flood in knowing that at least they can get Freeview HD if it all goes wrong. Sadly they're in an analogue signal area.My blog: http://www.roubaixcycling.cc (kit reviews and other musings)
https://twitter.com/roubaixcc
Facebook? No. Just say no.0 -
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Joelsim wrote:
Joelism - I agree it is a good article and agree it is madness, but it always was. The drivers behind Brexit have devoted their lives to getting out of the EU, they were never going to accept "soft" Brexit. Therefore all May did at Conference was to state the bleedin obvious and in many ways should be applauded for managing expectations.
So my (genuine) question is why have you become so angry about the whole thing?0 -
Because this isn't the country I grew up in anymore.
And there's absolutely no justifiable reason for what's happening.0 -
Joelsim wrote:Because this isn't the country I grew up in anymore.
And there's absolutely no justifiable reason for what's happening.
And you feel that has got worse in the last month?0 -
Meanwhile, back in the real world, part 73...
Yesterday I had to attend A&E in the Oxford Eye hospital, I need not bore you with the circumstances but nothing too traumatic resulted. I was also referred to the main JR hospital for additional assessment.
I received exemplary care, treated with courtesy, kindness and efficiency. Yes it took time, but that is the nature of the emergency game - it was urgent, I was seen and treated.
Both the doctors who saw me were Brits. ALL of the staff nurses who dealt with me were European nationals.
So HTF will our hospitals manage in our Brave New World? Could do with some clarity and leadership from our politicos. And blithely saying we'll spend more on medical school places is not the answer, well not for a decade at least. What happens in 2 years time?0 -
Surrey Commuter wrote:Joelsim wrote:Because this isn't the country I grew up in anymore.
And there's absolutely no justifiable reason for what's happening.
And you feel that has got worse in the last month?
Yes. And this is just the beginning.0 -
orraloon wrote:Meanwhile, back in the real world, part 73...
Yesterday I had to attend A&E in the Oxford Eye hospital, I need not bore you with the circumstances but nothing too traumatic resulted. I was also referred to the main JR hospital for additional assessment.
I received exemplary care, treated with courtesy, kindness and efficiency. Yes it took time, but that is the nature of the emergency game - it was urgent, I was seen and treated.
Both the doctors who saw me were Brits. ALL of the staff nurses who dealt with me were European nationals.
So HTF will our hospitals manage in our Brave New World? Could do with some clarity and leadership from our politicos. And blithely saying we'll spend more on medical school places is not the answer, well not for a decade at least. What happens in 2 years time?
We have had an abundance of advice and clarity;
Brexit means Brexit
We intend remaining a part of Europe
Our policy is to have our cake and eat it
Lose weight
Play less golf
In reality the picture you pointed was well known to everybody which leaves you with two options bout the people who led us down this path. The first is that they do not care so long as we exit. The second is that they are morons with no idea and no plan. These two re not mutually exclusive.0 -
Joelsim wrote:Surrey Commuter wrote:Joelsim wrote:Because this isn't the country I grew up in anymore.
And there's absolutely no justifiable reason for what's happening.
And you feel that has got worse in the last month?
Yes. And this is just the beginning.
Sorry to be the bringer of more bad news but nobody on here as pointed out that Merkel old the German car industry to get lost if they think they can dictate Brexit terms. Elsewhere I read the suggestion that even if they fought for a deal on their exports they would not want our car industry to have the same deal.
Anyway cheer up - rather than an economic apocalypse we are likely to see long term economic decline.0
