BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴
Comments
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It's good to see the 'naming countries people kinda like' approach to Brexit is back.
“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0 -
It was never necessaryballysmate said:Repeating something like a mantra and refusing to face the reality has been the downfall of the Remain side since the vote.
It was, for better or worse, a choice.“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0 -
Definitely going to change.TheBigBean said:
I expect that to change. Market size that is.rick_chasey said:
They do but it is a rather small portion of the pie.TheBigBean said:
Don't they have a decent share of the electric market?tailwindhome said:
Seems to one of a number of scenarios plannedStevo_666 said:
Here you go:tailwindhome said:Interesting development from Nissan in the FT.
They seem to have a plan to move production to the UK if there are tariffs on cars, essentially gambling they can grab a huge chunk of the UK market share (from 4% to 20%)
Ill try to post a link when I'm on my desktop.
Im sure there's a bit more to it than I've described
https://ft.com/content/c4f0d1e2-4442-11ea-a43a-c4b328d9061c
Potentially a very smart move if true. Wonder what people will make of this?
Macron might have a regret or two
Increasing market share to 20 % seems an ambitious planning assumption.
That a lot of Micras
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plug-in_electric_vehicles_in_the_United_Kingdom#2018
The entire market is 10x smaller than what their one factory is geared up to produce.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-513661230 -
While trade deals clearly help, there are are many other factors determining national prosperity. Otherwise you'd expect the EU countries themselves to be well on economic growth from all the friction free trading with other EU members. But its not really the case for quite a lot of them. Italy springs to mind, and more recently Germany, for example.Pross said:
Most of them were done in the 3.5 years before we were 'out' though. Of course we'll continue to trade with the EU, all I'm saying is that the report you linked to is showing that of the previous agreements covering 60% of our trade we currently only have about 8% covered and while I accept that the EU wouldn't start official discussions until we left we've had years to secure replacement deals with the others so I'm not seeing it as a success that we've managed to get 75% of them agreed.Stevo_666 said:
We haven't finished yet - and not bad going considering we've only been 'out' for 3 daysPross said:So if I'm reading that correctly we previously had 11% of all our trade through 100% of those EU agreements and we have therefore lost 25% of them along with, potentially, the 50% or so of our overall trade that was with the EU. 🤔
What makes you think we will stop trading with the EU if we don't get a trade deal with them? We export more to the US than any other country and have no trade deal with them - yet.
Ironically if the EU had kept to being a trading bloc rather than the 'ever closer integration', none of this would be necessary."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Over what time horizon?Stevo_666 said:
While trade deals clearly help, there are are many other factors determining national prosperity. Otherwise you'd expect the EU countries themselves to be well on economic growth from all the friction free trading with other EU members. But its not really the case for quite a lot of them. Italy springs to mind, and more recently Germany, for example.Pross said:
Most of them were done in the 3.5 years before we were 'out' though. Of course we'll continue to trade with the EU, all I'm saying is that the report you linked to is showing that of the previous agreements covering 60% of our trade we currently only have about 8% covered and while I accept that the EU wouldn't start official discussions until we left we've had years to secure replacement deals with the others so I'm not seeing it as a success that we've managed to get 75% of them agreed.Stevo_666 said:
We haven't finished yet - and not bad going considering we've only been 'out' for 3 daysPross said:So if I'm reading that correctly we previously had 11% of all our trade through 100% of those EU agreements and we have therefore lost 25% of them along with, potentially, the 50% or so of our overall trade that was with the EU. 🤔
What makes you think we will stop trading with the EU if we don't get a trade deal with them? We export more to the US than any other country and have no trade deal with them - yet.
Ironically if the EU had kept to being a trading bloc rather than the 'ever closer integration', none of this would be necessary.0 -
Italy - at least 10 years.rick_chasey said:
Over what time horizon?Stevo_666 said:
While trade deals clearly help, there are are many other factors determining national prosperity. Otherwise you'd expect the EU countries themselves to be well on economic growth from all the friction free trading with other EU members. But its not really the case for quite a lot of them. Italy springs to mind, and more recently Germany, for example.Pross said:
Most of them were done in the 3.5 years before we were 'out' though. Of course we'll continue to trade with the EU, all I'm saying is that the report you linked to is showing that of the previous agreements covering 60% of our trade we currently only have about 8% covered and while I accept that the EU wouldn't start official discussions until we left we've had years to secure replacement deals with the others so I'm not seeing it as a success that we've managed to get 75% of them agreed.Stevo_666 said:
We haven't finished yet - and not bad going considering we've only been 'out' for 3 daysPross said:So if I'm reading that correctly we previously had 11% of all our trade through 100% of those EU agreements and we have therefore lost 25% of them along with, potentially, the 50% or so of our overall trade that was with the EU. 🤔
What makes you think we will stop trading with the EU if we don't get a trade deal with them? We export more to the US than any other country and have no trade deal with them - yet.
Ironically if the EU had kept to being a trading bloc rather than the 'ever closer integration', none of this would be necessary.
Germany more recently.
Just examples. Over all EU growth is not exactly scintillating and well below the global average."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
I mean, it’s much of a muchness. U.K. has been marginally worse since Brexit.
The real question is what evidence do you have that it is the EU holding growth back, as opposed to either improving it or having no effect at all?
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It is certainly a unique theory to suggest that the way to speed up EU growth. Is to abolish the Single Market.rick_chasey said:I mean, it’s much of a muchness. U.K. has been marginally worse since Brexit.
The real question is what evidence do you have that it is the EU holding growth back, as opposed to either improving it or having no effect at all?
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To take the standard SC line, you clearly haven't understood what I posted abovesurrey_commuter said:
It is certainly a unique theory to suggest that the way to speed up EU growth. Is to abolish the Single Market.rick_chasey said:I mean, it’s much of a muchness. U.K. has been marginally worse since Brexit.
The real question is what evidence do you have that it is the EU holding growth back, as opposed to either improving it or having no effect at all?
Have another read..."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
tailwindhome said:
It's good to see the 'naming countries people kinda like' approach to Brexit is back.
</blockquo
Do you think many leave voters would react with dismay if he used Rwanda rather than Australia0 -
We could go round n ever decreasing circles or you could explain why you think that being a member of the EU slow growth.Stevo_666 said:
To take the standard SC line, you clearly haven't understood what I posted abovesurrey_commuter said:
It is certainly a unique theory to suggest that the way to speed up EU growth. Is to abolish the Single Market.rick_chasey said:I mean, it’s much of a muchness. U.K. has been marginally worse since Brexit.
The real question is what evidence do you have that it is the EU holding growth back, as opposed to either improving it or having no effect at all?
Have another read...
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surrey_commuter said:
Hey, don't knock Rwanda. Pretty good cycling team, and better broadband than most of Scotland for a start...tailwindhome said:It's good to see the 'naming countries people kinda like' approach to Brexit is back.
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The lower growth compared to other regions is fact:rick_chasey said:I mean, it’s much of a muchness. U.K. has been marginally worse since Brexit.
The real question is what evidence do you have that it is the EU holding growth back, as opposed to either improving it or having no effect at all?
https://imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD
There is a similar pattern on unemployment (bar the Middle East):
https://statista.com/statistics/279790/unemployment-rate-in-seclected-world-regions/
While there are no doubt country specific reasons in the mix, the fact that the EU is low down the rankings here must have some common factors (admittedly the growth stats do not show the EU specifically but there are figures for Europe and Eastern Europe). The impact of the single currency on certain countries is well documented and also the restrictive labour laws may well be contributing towards this - although again, some of that is country specific. There will be other factors.
What is your explanation for the relatively poor growth and high unemployment in the EU?
"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
See above.surrey_commuter said:
We could go round n ever decreasing circles or you could explain why you think that being a member of the EU slow growth.Stevo_666 said:
To take the standard SC line, you clearly haven't understood what I posted abovesurrey_commuter said:
It is certainly a unique theory to suggest that the way to speed up EU growth. Is to abolish the Single Market.rick_chasey said:I mean, it’s much of a muchness. U.K. has been marginally worse since Brexit.
The real question is what evidence do you have that it is the EU holding growth back, as opposed to either improving it or having no effect at all?
Have another read...
Also re my original post, I have highlighted a relevant part as you didn't seem to get it.
"While trade deals clearly help, there are are many other factors determining national prosperity. Otherwise you'd expect the EU countries themselves to be well on economic growth from all the friction free trading with other EU members. But its not really the case for quite a lot of them. Italy springs to mind, and more recently Germany, for example."
Why do you think the EU is performing relatively poorly in terms of growth and unemployment?"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Of course it's not a panacea, but as per your first sentence I'm sure you'd agree that Italy and Germany would be in more economic difficulties without the advantage of single market membership. As our own performance is pretty limp it seems silly to forester that advantage.Stevo_666 said:
While trade deals clearly help, there are are many other factors determining national prosperity. Otherwise you'd expect the EU countries themselves to be well on economic growth from all the friction free trading with other EU members. But its not really the case for quite a lot of them. Italy springs to mind, and more recently Germany, for example.Pross said:
Most of them were done in the 3.5 years before we were 'out' though. Of course we'll continue to trade with the EU, all I'm saying is that the report you linked to is showing that of the previous agreements covering 60% of our trade we currently only have about 8% covered and while I accept that the EU wouldn't start official discussions until we left we've had years to secure replacement deals with the others so I'm not seeing it as a success that we've managed to get 75% of them agreed.Stevo_666 said:
We haven't finished yet - and not bad going considering we've only been 'out' for 3 daysPross said:So if I'm reading that correctly we previously had 11% of all our trade through 100% of those EU agreements and we have therefore lost 25% of them along with, potentially, the 50% or so of our overall trade that was with the EU. 🤔
What makes you think we will stop trading with the EU if we don't get a trade deal with them? We export more to the US than any other country and have no trade deal with them - yet.
Ironically if the EU had kept to being a trading bloc rather than the 'ever closer integration', none of this would be necessary.1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
I mean, if we side step the entire idea that you are comparing the EU existing with a theoretical parallel where the EU doesn't exist, which you said yourself is impossible and shouldn't be done earlier up in the thread....Stevo_666 said:
The lower growth compared to other regions is fact:rick_chasey said:I mean, it’s much of a muchness. U.K. has been marginally worse since Brexit.
The real question is what evidence do you have that it is the EU holding growth back, as opposed to either improving it or having no effect at all?
https://imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD
There is a similar pattern on unemployment (bar the Middle East):
https://statista.com/statistics/279790/unemployment-rate-in-seclected-world-regions/
While there are no doubt country specific reasons in the mix, the fact that the EU is low down the rankings here must have some common factors (admittedly the growth stats do not show the EU specifically but there are figures for Europe and Eastern Europe). The impact of the single currency on certain countries is well documented and also the restrictive labour laws may well be contributing towards this - although again, some of that is country specific. There will be other factors.
What is your explanation for the relatively poor growth and high unemployment in the EU?
What evidence do you have that the correlation, which is patchy at best, is actually causation?0 -
surrey_commuter said:
Wakanda +++tailwindhome said:It's good to see the 'naming countries people kinda like' approach to Brexit is back.
“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0 -
I don't accept the premise that the EU is doing relatively poorly in terms of economic growth. I think people need to accept that is the norm for a developed economy.Stevo_666 said:
See above.surrey_commuter said:
We could go round n ever decreasing circles or you could explain why you think that being a member of the EU slow growth.Stevo_666 said:
To take the standard SC line, you clearly haven't understood what I posted abovesurrey_commuter said:
It is certainly a unique theory to suggest that the way to speed up EU growth. Is to abolish the Single Market.rick_chasey said:I mean, it’s much of a muchness. U.K. has been marginally worse since Brexit.
The real question is what evidence do you have that it is the EU holding growth back, as opposed to either improving it or having no effect at all?
Have another read...
Also re my original post, I have highlighted a relevant part as you didn't seem to get it.
"While trade deals clearly help, there are are many other factors determining national prosperity. Otherwise you'd expect the EU countries themselves to be well on economic growth from all the friction free trading with other EU members. But its not really the case for quite a lot of them. Italy springs to mind, and more recently Germany, for example."
Why do you think the EU is performing relatively poorly in terms of growth and unemployment?
Unemployment I thought was more down to local regulations0 -
The whole manufacturing sector is in the doldrums which has dragged down growth in the Eurozone.surrey_commuter said:
I don't accept the premise that the EU is doing relatively poorly in terms of economic growth. I think people need to accept that is the norm for a developed economy.Stevo_666 said:
See above.surrey_commuter said:
We could go round n ever decreasing circles or you could explain why you think that being a member of the EU slow growth.Stevo_666 said:
To take the standard SC line, you clearly haven't understood what I posted abovesurrey_commuter said:
It is certainly a unique theory to suggest that the way to speed up EU growth. Is to abolish the Single Market.rick_chasey said:I mean, it’s much of a muchness. U.K. has been marginally worse since Brexit.
The real question is what evidence do you have that it is the EU holding growth back, as opposed to either improving it or having no effect at all?
Have another read...
Also re my original post, I have highlighted a relevant part as you didn't seem to get it.
"While trade deals clearly help, there are are many other factors determining national prosperity. Otherwise you'd expect the EU countries themselves to be well on economic growth from all the friction free trading with other EU members. But its not really the case for quite a lot of them. Italy springs to mind, and more recently Germany, for example."
Why do you think the EU is performing relatively poorly in terms of growth and unemployment?
Unemployment I thought was more down to local regulations
To make a connection to the EU, it could be argued that the free market has concentrated industries in various countries, so Germany has a larger manufacturing base and the UK has more services. The impact of worsening manufacturing is therefore felt more in Germany than it would have been in the absence of the EU. Of course, Germany has enjoyed a considerable boom for the same reasons up until now.
If the EU federalised, this wouldn't be as much of a problem, because other areas of the economy would be picking up the slack.0 -
You're trying to sidestep the issue here - I've given my reasons, now you give yours.rick_chasey said:
I mean, if we side step the entire idea that you are comparing the EU existing with a theoretical parallel where the EU doesn't exist, which you said yourself is impossible and shouldn't be done earlier up in the thread....Stevo_666 said:
The lower growth compared to other regions is fact:rick_chasey said:I mean, it’s much of a muchness. U.K. has been marginally worse since Brexit.
The real question is what evidence do you have that it is the EU holding growth back, as opposed to either improving it or having no effect at all?
https://imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD
There is a similar pattern on unemployment (bar the Middle East):
https://statista.com/statistics/279790/unemployment-rate-in-seclected-world-regions/
While there are no doubt country specific reasons in the mix, the fact that the EU is low down the rankings here must have some common factors (admittedly the growth stats do not show the EU specifically but there are figures for Europe and Eastern Europe). The impact of the single currency on certain countries is well documented and also the restrictive labour laws may well be contributing towards this - although again, some of that is country specific. There will be other factors.
What is your explanation for the relatively poor growth and high unemployment in the EU?
What evidence do you have that the correlation, which is patchy at best, is actually causation?"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
If the EU growth rate is less that any other region (as shown in the link above), how can it be doing anything other than 'relatively poorly'?surrey_commuter said:
I don't accept the premise that the EU is doing relatively poorly in terms of economic growth. I think people need to accept that is the norm for a developed economy.Stevo_666 said:
See above.surrey_commuter said:
We could go round n ever decreasing circles or you could explain why you think that being a member of the EU slow growth.Stevo_666 said:
To take the standard SC line, you clearly haven't understood what I posted abovesurrey_commuter said:
It is certainly a unique theory to suggest that the way to speed up EU growth. Is to abolish the Single Market.rick_chasey said:I mean, it’s much of a muchness. U.K. has been marginally worse since Brexit.
The real question is what evidence do you have that it is the EU holding growth back, as opposed to either improving it or having no effect at all?
Have another read...
Also re my original post, I have highlighted a relevant part as you didn't seem to get it.
"While trade deals clearly help, there are are many other factors determining national prosperity. Otherwise you'd expect the EU countries themselves to be well on economic growth from all the friction free trading with other EU members. But its not really the case for quite a lot of them. Italy springs to mind, and more recently Germany, for example."
Why do you think the EU is performing relatively poorly in terms of growth and unemployment?
Unemployment I thought was more down to local regulations"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
You've illustrated tenuous correlation, and have concluded there is causation. I'm asking you how you went from one to the other.Stevo_666 said:
You're trying to sidestep the issue here - I've given my reasons, now you give yours.rick_chasey said:
I mean, if we side step the entire idea that you are comparing the EU existing with a theoretical parallel where the EU doesn't exist, which you said yourself is impossible and shouldn't be done earlier up in the thread....Stevo_666 said:
The lower growth compared to other regions is fact:rick_chasey said:I mean, it’s much of a muchness. U.K. has been marginally worse since Brexit.
The real question is what evidence do you have that it is the EU holding growth back, as opposed to either improving it or having no effect at all?
https://imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD
There is a similar pattern on unemployment (bar the Middle East):
https://statista.com/statistics/279790/unemployment-rate-in-seclected-world-regions/
While there are no doubt country specific reasons in the mix, the fact that the EU is low down the rankings here must have some common factors (admittedly the growth stats do not show the EU specifically but there are figures for Europe and Eastern Europe). The impact of the single currency on certain countries is well documented and also the restrictive labour laws may well be contributing towards this - although again, some of that is country specific. There will be other factors.
What is your explanation for the relatively poor growth and high unemployment in the EU?
What evidence do you have that the correlation, which is patchy at best, is actually causation?0 -
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Prove the causation between the existence of the EU and this.Stevo_666 said:
If the EU growth rate is less that any other region (as shown in the link above), how can it be doing anything other than 'relatively poorly'?surrey_commuter said:
I don't accept the premise that the EU is doing relatively poorly in terms of economic growth. I think people need to accept that is the norm for a developed economy.Stevo_666 said:
See above.surrey_commuter said:
We could go round n ever decreasing circles or you could explain why you think that being a member of the EU slow growth.Stevo_666 said:
To take the standard SC line, you clearly haven't understood what I posted abovesurrey_commuter said:
It is certainly a unique theory to suggest that the way to speed up EU growth. Is to abolish the Single Market.rick_chasey said:I mean, it’s much of a muchness. U.K. has been marginally worse since Brexit.
The real question is what evidence do you have that it is the EU holding growth back, as opposed to either improving it or having no effect at all?
Have another read...
Also re my original post, I have highlighted a relevant part as you didn't seem to get it.
"While trade deals clearly help, there are are many other factors determining national prosperity. Otherwise you'd expect the EU countries themselves to be well on economic growth from all the friction free trading with other EU members. But its not really the case for quite a lot of them. Italy springs to mind, and more recently Germany, for example."
Why do you think the EU is performing relatively poorly in terms of growth and unemployment?
Unemployment I thought was more down to local regulations
If you can't, you may as well be comparing per capita cheese consumption and people who die by being tangled in bedsheets.0 -
It's your turn, Rick. ATQ.rick_chasey said:
You've illustrated tenuous correlation, and have concluded there is causation. I'm asking you how you went from one to the other.Stevo_666 said:
You're trying to sidestep the issue here - I've given my reasons, now you give yours.rick_chasey said:
I mean, if we side step the entire idea that you are comparing the EU existing with a theoretical parallel where the EU doesn't exist, which you said yourself is impossible and shouldn't be done earlier up in the thread....Stevo_666 said:
The lower growth compared to other regions is fact:rick_chasey said:I mean, it’s much of a muchness. U.K. has been marginally worse since Brexit.
The real question is what evidence do you have that it is the EU holding growth back, as opposed to either improving it or having no effect at all?
https://imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD
There is a similar pattern on unemployment (bar the Middle East):
https://statista.com/statistics/279790/unemployment-rate-in-seclected-world-regions/
While there are no doubt country specific reasons in the mix, the fact that the EU is low down the rankings here must have some common factors (admittedly the growth stats do not show the EU specifically but there are figures for Europe and Eastern Europe). The impact of the single currency on certain countries is well documented and also the restrictive labour laws may well be contributing towards this - although again, some of that is country specific. There will be other factors.
What is your explanation for the relatively poor growth and high unemployment in the EU?
What evidence do you have that the correlation, which is patchy at best, is actually causation?"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
What's the question? I'm very confused. You start confusing correlations with causation and then you start saying "answer the question".
I think you're saying this because you can't justify your statement that the EU is causing low growth. You've noticed the correlation, which is "growth across the EU is below global average" and you've concluded it's the EU's fault. How do you know that? What evidence is there for it?
Keep spinning. Until you can offer up some evidence it's safe to assume you're talking nonsense.0 -
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Even if we assumed there is causation.
It is perfectly possible that the EU has successfully reduced the negative impact of other global trends. Perhaps without EU protectionism maybe EU member states would have suffered more against a global trend favouring Asia Pacific regions. Low wages, standards etc.
We’ll be an interesting test case for that.0 -
Lots of good economist articles that suggest that the EU is in fact, compared to the states and China, *less protectionist* than they are and have been.
There is an argument to suggest that that is in part why the EU cannot boast of a tech super giant like Huawei or Google0 -
I don’t judge the term protectionist.
I have said on here before all markets balance protectionism and Free trade against each other.
As you say US and China are heavily protectionist.
Essentially everybody want the bits they need from external sources readily but without competition for the bits they do themselves.
The point is, without such protectionism, we are more exposed to risk but with higher potential reward.
This is the essence of the Brexit ideology from an economic perspective.
Do we have a strong enough offering (or the ability to create one) to benefit more than we lose?0
