BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴
Comments
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Are you talking about official inflation or the actual, real inflation that most of us bear the cost of?Stevo_666 said:
Although it has been picking up over the last few years and currently exceeds inflation - i.e. there is real wage growth.
https://ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/kgq2/qna
You can fool some of the people all of the time. Concentrate on those people.0 -
Official. What are the figures for your 'real' inflation?Longshot said:
Are you talking about official inflation or the actual, real inflation that most of us bear the cost of?Stevo_666 said:
Although it has been picking up over the last few years and currently exceeds inflation - i.e. there is real wage growth.
https://ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/kgq2/qna"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Something more than the official number.Stevo_666 said:
Official. What are the figures for your 'real' inflation?Longshot said:
Are you talking about official inflation or the actual, real inflation that most of us bear the cost of?Stevo_666 said:
Although it has been picking up over the last few years and currently exceeds inflation - i.e. there is real wage growth.
https://ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/kgq2/qnaYou can fool some of the people all of the time. Concentrate on those people.0 -
Maybe it is, maybe it isn't. Bit difficult to debate the point without any information or support though, so I have to stick with the info I have.Longshot said:
Something more than the official number.Stevo_666 said:
Official. What are the figures for your 'real' inflation?Longshot said:
Are you talking about official inflation or the actual, real inflation that most of us bear the cost of?Stevo_666 said:
Although it has been picking up over the last few years and currently exceeds inflation - i.e. there is real wage growth.
https://ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/kgq2/qna"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
I wasn't criticising your point, just making a different one.Stevo_666 said:
Maybe it is, maybe it isn't. Bit difficult to debate the point without any information or support though, so I have to stick with the info I have.Longshot said:
Something more than the official number.Stevo_666 said:
Official. What are the figures for your 'real' inflation?Longshot said:
Are you talking about official inflation or the actual, real inflation that most of us bear the cost of?Stevo_666 said:
Although it has been picking up over the last few years and currently exceeds inflation - i.e. there is real wage growth.
https://ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/kgq2/qna
I haven't done sufficiently detailed calculations to provide a number but I know that my basic costs of living have increased more than the official inflation figure for many years.You can fool some of the people all of the time. Concentrate on those people.0 -
Are your returns from selling timber or simply from a subsidy to plant or maintain forestry?haydenm said:
Maybe but it would depend on how it is set up. How will the land become available, who will own it, who will be allowed to invest, that sort of thing. If it's just a government will then it counts for nothing really. We've had grand aims to plant thousands of hectares for over 20 years but it doesn't happen, a significant element of the new planting which does happen is down to us.TheBigBean said:
Aren't you able to benefit from the one trillion trees thing?haydenm said:
I'll make more money if it goes well so probably that then. Again, I don't see what the relevance is.ballysmate said:He didn't ask if you thought it would be a success. He asked if you hoped it would be.
The two main reasons tree planting doesn't meet current government targets in the UK are lack of available land, and statutory consultees (including government agencies) making it very difficult. The available land element may change as they are apparently linking agricultural grants to environmental benefit post Brexit (potentially very good), but the second element will not change anytime soon.
It's very very difficult to accurately model the IRR of a new planting scheme before purchase when 20% of the predicted area ends up not planted for unpredictable reasons. It's very hard to convince investors to take on huge amounts of risk for returns they can get in existing forestry even when the target area is planted in full. Sticking to buying existing forest is safer in terms of assumptions, once you take a view on long term timber price.
Not optimistic on that front but those are my personal views. If you wanted to give me £15m I'm pretty sure I could get a solid return of 8% ish but I'd have to target it very carefully, which factors back into the available land issue.
The biggest impact will be down to continued low interest rates, inheritance tax changes or agricultural subsidy changes I imagine.0 -
Selling timber. Our investors are interested in a combination of timber income and forest value depending on gearing and tax objectives. Quite hard to separate the two obviously, but some have a higher demand for cash. The only time grant income might play a part in the overall return is in new planting schemes but that goes a small way to offset the inflated value of sheep farms due to CAP, and the schemes would probably go ahead without it. Planting grant is in the ballpark of the upfront cost of the planting work, we are more interested in the purchase price and the forest value in the future which obviously depends on how fast the trees are growingTheBigBean said:
Are your returns from selling timber or simply from a subsidy to plant or maintain forestry?haydenm said:
Maybe but it would depend on how it is set up. How will the land become available, who will own it, who will be allowed to invest, that sort of thing. If it's just a government will then it counts for nothing really. We've had grand aims to plant thousands of hectares for over 20 years but it doesn't happen, a significant element of the new planting which does happen is down to us.TheBigBean said:
Aren't you able to benefit from the one trillion trees thing?haydenm said:
I'll make more money if it goes well so probably that then. Again, I don't see what the relevance is.ballysmate said:He didn't ask if you thought it would be a success. He asked if you hoped it would be.
The two main reasons tree planting doesn't meet current government targets in the UK are lack of available land, and statutory consultees (including government agencies) making it very difficult. The available land element may change as they are apparently linking agricultural grants to environmental benefit post Brexit (potentially very good), but the second element will not change anytime soon.
It's very very difficult to accurately model the IRR of a new planting scheme before purchase when 20% of the predicted area ends up not planted for unpredictable reasons. It's very hard to convince investors to take on huge amounts of risk for returns they can get in existing forestry even when the target area is planted in full. Sticking to buying existing forest is safer in terms of assumptions, once you take a view on long term timber price.
Not optimistic on that front but those are my personal views. If you wanted to give me £15m I'm pretty sure I could get a solid return of 8% ish but I'd have to target it very carefully, which factors back into the available land issue.
The biggest impact will be down to continued low interest rates, inheritance tax changes or agricultural subsidy changes I imagine.0 -
I didn't take it as that, I was just pointing out that its difficult to debate something like that with no info.Longshot said:
I wasn't criticising your point, just making a different one.Stevo_666 said:
Maybe it is, maybe it isn't. Bit difficult to debate the point without any information or support though, so I have to stick with the info I have.Longshot said:
Something more than the official number.Stevo_666 said:
Official. What are the figures for your 'real' inflation?Longshot said:
Are you talking about official inflation or the actual, real inflation that most of us bear the cost of?Stevo_666 said:
Although it has been picking up over the last few years and currently exceeds inflation - i.e. there is real wage growth.
https://ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/kgq2/qna
I haven't done sufficiently detailed calculations to provide a number but I know that my basic costs of living have increased more than the official inflation figure for many years."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Thanks for the explanation. I can see how changes to CAP and IHT could be game changers in terms of an exit value. Still, it's green and provides long term investment, so I could imagine a reasonable amount of interest.haydenm said:
Selling timber. Our investors are interested in a combination of timber income and forest value depending on gearing and tax objectives. Quite hard to separate the two obviously, but some have a higher demand for cash. The only time grant income might play a part in the overall return is in new planting schemes but that goes a small way to offset the inflated value of sheep farms due to CAP, and the schemes would probably go ahead without it. Planting grant is in the ballpark of the upfront cost of the planting work, we are more interested in the purchase price and the forest value in the future which obviously depends on how fast the trees are growingTheBigBean said:
Are your returns from selling timber or simply from a subsidy to plant or maintain forestry?haydenm said:
Maybe but it would depend on how it is set up. How will the land become available, who will own it, who will be allowed to invest, that sort of thing. If it's just a government will then it counts for nothing really. We've had grand aims to plant thousands of hectares for over 20 years but it doesn't happen, a significant element of the new planting which does happen is down to us.TheBigBean said:
Aren't you able to benefit from the one trillion trees thing?haydenm said:
I'll make more money if it goes well so probably that then. Again, I don't see what the relevance is.ballysmate said:He didn't ask if you thought it would be a success. He asked if you hoped it would be.
The two main reasons tree planting doesn't meet current government targets in the UK are lack of available land, and statutory consultees (including government agencies) making it very difficult. The available land element may change as they are apparently linking agricultural grants to environmental benefit post Brexit (potentially very good), but the second element will not change anytime soon.
It's very very difficult to accurately model the IRR of a new planting scheme before purchase when 20% of the predicted area ends up not planted for unpredictable reasons. It's very hard to convince investors to take on huge amounts of risk for returns they can get in existing forestry even when the target area is planted in full. Sticking to buying existing forest is safer in terms of assumptions, once you take a view on long term timber price.
Not optimistic on that front but those are my personal views. If you wanted to give me £15m I'm pretty sure I could get a solid return of 8% ish but I'd have to target it very carefully, which factors back into the available land issue.
The biggest impact will be down to continued low interest rates, inheritance tax changes or agricultural subsidy changes I imagine.0 -
So, when all the forecasts were saying Brexit would be an economic disaster we were told that the forecasts are bollox. Now, the forecasts are saying that the economy may grow at 0.01 above the EU, we should are being told that its proof that Brexit will be a success.0
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As you can probably guess the credibility of economic forecasters is very low with me.elbowloh said:So, when all the forecasts were saying Brexit would be an economic disaster we were told that the forecasts are bollox. Now, the forecasts are saying that the economy may grow at 0.01 above the EU, we should are being told that its proof that Brexit will be a success.
When I view forecasts now I ask myself if there is political bias behind it and I cannot see one with this forecast, unless their forecast is trying to influence the UK-EU trade negotiations.
I see from your comment that you have yet to learn the lesson about politically motivated forecasts from the referendum.0 -
I'm too old to learn any new lessons. Just too entrenched in my own views like everyone else ;-)coopster_the_1st said:
As you can probably guess the credibility of economic forecasters is very low with me.elbowloh said:So, when all the forecasts were saying Brexit would be an economic disaster we were told that the forecasts are bollox. Now, the forecasts are saying that the economy may grow at 0.01 above the EU, we should are being told that its proof that Brexit will be a success.
When I view forecasts now I ask myself if there is political bias behind it and I cannot see one with this forecast, unless their forecast is trying to influence the UK-EU trade negotiations.
I see from your comment that you have yet to learn the lesson about politically motivated forecasts from the referendum.1 -
For a long time I have treated climate change forecasts with a similar cynicism. I'm not in denial, just don't entirely trust either side's figures. The biggest give away for me is they always pick a timeframe that absolutely serves their purpose.coopster_the_1st said:
As you can probably guess the credibility of economic forecasters is very low with me.elbowloh said:So, when all the forecasts were saying Brexit would be an economic disaster we were told that the forecasts are bollox. Now, the forecasts are saying that the economy may grow at 0.01 above the EU, we should are being told that its proof that Brexit will be a success.
When I view forecasts now I ask myself if there is political bias behind it and I cannot see one with this forecast, unless their forecast is trying to influence the UK-EU trade negotiations.
"Over the last 113 years..."
"Since the middle of the last Ice Age, you can clearly see the earth has heated up..."
The Brexit forecasts were no different and were absolutely politically motivated.
You can fool some of the people all of the time. Concentrate on those people.0 -
1. That's scepticism, not cynicism.Longshot said:
I'm not in denial, just don't entirely trust either side's figures.coopster_the_1st said:
As you can probably guess the credibility of economic forecasters is very low with me.elbowloh said:So, when all the forecasts were saying Brexit would be an economic disaster we were told that the forecasts are bollox. Now, the forecasts are saying that the economy may grow at 0.01 above the EU, we should are being told that its proof that Brexit will be a success.
When I view forecasts now I ask myself if there is political bias behind it and I cannot see one with this forecast, unless their forecast is trying to influence the UK-EU trade negotiations.
2. Look at the original report not the half-arsed summary and make your own mind up rather than thinking about everything in terms of sides.
3. In the case of the IMF forecasts, how on earth do you ascribe them as pro or anti Brexit?1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
PARLY
@PARLYapp
·
31m
The EU withdrawal agreement bill has finished its parliamentary stages and awaits Royal Assent.
So we leave the EU on 31st Jan at 11pm *
*or not depending where you live and what definition of Brexit the Brexiteers are working to now.
“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0 -
I think we knew that on 13th December.tailwindhome said:
PARLY
@PARLYapp
·
31m
The EU withdrawal agreement bill has finished its parliamentary stages and awaits Royal Assent.
So we leave the EU on 31st Jan at 11pm *
*or not depending where you live and what definition of Brexit the Brexiteers are working to now."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Stevo_666 said:
I think we knew that on 13th December.tailwindhome said:
PARLY
@PARLYapp
·
31m
The EU withdrawal agreement bill has finished its parliamentary stages and awaits Royal Assent.
So we leave the EU on 31st Jan at 11pm *
*or not depending where you live and what definition of Brexit the Brexiteers are working to now.
In fairness, that's what I said when you were whinging that no one had mentioned the passing the bill at the committee stage“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0 -
I wasn't referring to the figures you posted.rjsterry said:
1. That's scepticism, not cynicism.Longshot said:
I'm not in denial, just don't entirely trust either side's figures.coopster_the_1st said:
As you can probably guess the credibility of economic forecasters is very low with me.elbowloh said:So, when all the forecasts were saying Brexit would be an economic disaster we were told that the forecasts are bollox. Now, the forecasts are saying that the economy may grow at 0.01 above the EU, we should are being told that its proof that Brexit will be a success.
When I view forecasts now I ask myself if there is political bias behind it and I cannot see one with this forecast, unless their forecast is trying to influence the UK-EU trade negotiations.
2. Look at the original report not the half-arsed summary and make your own mind up rather than thinking about everything in terms of sides.
3. In the case of the IMF forecasts, how on earth do you ascribe them as pro or anti Brexit?You can fool some of the people all of the time. Concentrate on those people.0 -
I'm not saying you didn't realise, it just seemed like a bit of an obvious point to make. However you need to distinguish between whingeing and making an observation about whingerstailwindhome said:Stevo_666 said:
I think we knew that on 13th December.tailwindhome said:
PARLY
@PARLYapp
·
31m
The EU withdrawal agreement bill has finished its parliamentary stages and awaits Royal Assent.
So we leave the EU on 31st Jan at 11pm *
*or not depending where you live and what definition of Brexit the Brexiteers are working to now.
In fairness, that's what I said when you were whinging that no one had mentioned the passing the bill at the committee stage
Anyhow, it's the final countdown now. I'm sure there;'s a song about that..."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
We're on the one roadStevo_666 said:
I'm not saying you didn't realise, it just seemed like a bit of an obvious point to make. However you need to distinguish between whingeing and making an observation about whingerstailwindhome said:Stevo_666 said:
I think we knew that on 13th December.tailwindhome said:
PARLY
@PARLYapp
·
31m
The EU withdrawal agreement bill has finished its parliamentary stages and awaits Royal Assent.
So we leave the EU on 31st Jan at 11pm *
*or not depending where you live and what definition of Brexit the Brexiteers are working to now.
In fairness, that's what I said when you were whinging that no one had mentioned the passing the bill at the committee stage
Anyhow, it's the final countdown now. I'm sure there;'s a song about that...
Sharing the one load
We're on the road to God knows where
We're on the one road
It may be the wrong road
But we're together now who cares“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0 -
More like this - appropriate on more than one level:-tailwindhome said:
We're on the one roadStevo_666 said:
I'm not saying you didn't realise, it just seemed like a bit of an obvious point to make. However you need to distinguish between whingeing and making an observation about whingerstailwindhome said:Stevo_666 said:
I think we knew that on 13th December.tailwindhome said:
PARLY
@PARLYapp
·
31m
The EU withdrawal agreement bill has finished its parliamentary stages and awaits Royal Assent.
So we leave the EU on 31st Jan at 11pm *
*or not depending where you live and what definition of Brexit the Brexiteers are working to now.
In fairness, that's what I said when you were whinging that no one had mentioned the passing the bill at the committee stage
Anyhow, it's the final countdown now. I'm sure there;'s a song about that...
Sharing the one load
We're on the road to God knows where
We're on the one road
It may be the wrong road
But we're together now who cares
https://youtube.com/watch?v=9jK-NcRmVcw
"We're leaving together,
But still it's farewell.
And maybe we'll come back
To earth, who can tell?
I guess there is no one to blame
We're leaving ground (leaving ground)
Will things ever be the same again?
It's the final countdown.
The final countdown"
They could save a few quid by piping this out of some speakers attached to Big Ben a week on Friday, instead of that daft bell ringing idea
"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Stevo_666 said:
More like this - appropriate on more than one level:-tailwindhome said:
We're on the one roadStevo_666 said:
I'm not saying you didn't realise, it just seemed like a bit of an obvious point to make. However you need to distinguish between whingeing and making an observation about whingerstailwindhome said:Stevo_666 said:
I think we knew that on 13th December.tailwindhome said:
PARLY
@PARLYapp
·
31m
The EU withdrawal agreement bill has finished its parliamentary stages and awaits Royal Assent.
So we leave the EU on 31st Jan at 11pm *
*or not depending where you live and what definition of Brexit the Brexiteers are working to now.
In fairness, that's what I said when you were whinging that no one had mentioned the passing the bill at the committee stage
Anyhow, it's the final countdown now. I'm sure there;'s a song about that...
Sharing the one load
We're on the road to God knows where
We're on the one road
It may be the wrong road
But we're together now who cares
https://youtube.com/watch?v=9jK-NcRmVcw
"We're leaving together,
But still it's farewell.
And maybe we'll come back
To earth, who can tell?
I guess there is no one to blame
We're leaving ground (leaving ground)
Will things ever be the same again?
It's the final countdown.
The final countdown"
They could save a few quid by piping this out of some speakers attached to Big Ben a week on Friday, instead of that daft bell ringing idea
I think I may have mentioned 1300 pages back Europe (the band) would be in for a royalties windfall.
“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0 -
Fair enough. 1 and 2 still apply to any published set of figures.Longshot said:
I wasn't referring to the figures you posted.rjsterry said:
1. That's scepticism, not cynicism.Longshot said:
I'm not in denial, just don't entirely trust either side's figures.coopster_the_1st said:
As you can probably guess the credibility of economic forecasters is very low with me.elbowloh said:So, when all the forecasts were saying Brexit would be an economic disaster we were told that the forecasts are bollox. Now, the forecasts are saying that the economy may grow at 0.01 above the EU, we should are being told that its proof that Brexit will be a success.
When I view forecasts now I ask myself if there is political bias behind it and I cannot see one with this forecast, unless their forecast is trying to influence the UK-EU trade negotiations.
2. Look at the original report not the half-arsed summary and make your own mind up rather than thinking about everything in terms of sides.
3. In the case of the IMF forecasts, how on earth do you ascribe them as pro or anti Brexit?1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
Good foresight. I did think a while back that the Communards could get some royalties from the Remainer camp:tailwindhome said:Stevo_666 said:
More like this - appropriate on more than one level:-tailwindhome said:
We're on the one roadStevo_666 said:
I'm not saying you didn't realise, it just seemed like a bit of an obvious point to make. However you need to distinguish between whingeing and making an observation about whingerstailwindhome said:Stevo_666 said:
I think we knew that on 13th December.tailwindhome said:
PARLY
@PARLYapp
·
31m
The EU withdrawal agreement bill has finished its parliamentary stages and awaits Royal Assent.
So we leave the EU on 31st Jan at 11pm *
*or not depending where you live and what definition of Brexit the Brexiteers are working to now.
In fairness, that's what I said when you were whinging that no one had mentioned the passing the bill at the committee stage
Anyhow, it's the final countdown now. I'm sure there;'s a song about that...
Sharing the one load
We're on the road to God knows where
We're on the one road
It may be the wrong road
But we're together now who cares
https://youtube.com/watch?v=9jK-NcRmVcw
"We're leaving together,
But still it's farewell.
And maybe we'll come back
To earth, who can tell?
I guess there is no one to blame
We're leaving ground (leaving ground)
Will things ever be the same again?
It's the final countdown.
The final countdown"
They could save a few quid by piping this out of some speakers attached to Big Ben a week on Friday, instead of that daft bell ringing idea
I think I may have mentioned 1300 pages back Europe (the band) would be in for a royalties windfall.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=1RHBAd5YUR8"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
The Withdrawal Act has been given Royal Assent
“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0 -
And the Spectator has awarded its parliamentarian of the year award to... Boris Johnson.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7aItpjF5vXc 0 -
Back in December. Just saying...pblakeney said:
Theme tune -
Talking Heads, Road To Nowhere.The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
Anyone watching Ed Balls' 'Travels in Euroland'? Very interesting take on The Netherlands."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0
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