BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴
Comments
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They may not have any choice depending on what is agreed (or not) on FS.kingstongraham said:I struggle to see companies having to maintain multiple offices to service the same customers as particularly good news coming out of Brexit. A customer somewhere has to pay for that.
"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Exactly - but this reduced efficiency isn't a positive outcome of Brexit.Stevo_666 said:
They may not have any choice depending on what is agreed (or not) on FS.kingstongraham said:I struggle to see companies having to maintain multiple offices to service the same customers as particularly good news coming out of Brexit. A customer somewhere has to pay for that.
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It has the benefits I mentioned above.kingstongraham said:
Exactly - but this reduced efficiency isn't a positive outcome of Brexit.Stevo_666 said:
They may not have any choice depending on what is agreed (or not) on FS.kingstongraham said:I struggle to see companies having to maintain multiple offices to service the same customers as particularly good news coming out of Brexit. A customer somewhere has to pay for that.
You could argue that the exisiting piles of regulation that companies have to deal with have the same benefits and disadvantages."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
That has to be a pretty rare occurrence in NI politics?tailwindhome said:The NI assembly has unanimously approved a motion to withhold consent for the WA
Means nothing though
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We managed 1.3% last year. 1.4% rising to a blistering 1.5% in 2021 is indeed better than nothing. It being a short term forecast I would imagine the probability of it being accurate is reasonably high.Stevo_666 said:
I expect the IMF did some modelling to come to that conclusion. Wonder what some people will make of good news like this?kingstongraham said:This looked like good news - I wonder if some Brexiters are going to magically change their attitudes to IMF forecasts. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/past-six-days/2020-01-20/business/britain-to-grow-faster-than-france-and-germany-next-year-kmhgsntsn
Dependent on “an orderly exit from the European Union at the end of January followed by a gradual transition to a new economic relationship”.
1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
This is more like an earthquake being positive for GDP because of the extra spending to clear up afterwards. That doesn't make it a good thing.Stevo_666 said:
It has the benefits I mentioned above.kingstongraham said:
Exactly - but this reduced efficiency isn't a positive outcome of Brexit.Stevo_666 said:
They may not have any choice depending on what is agreed (or not) on FS.kingstongraham said:I struggle to see companies having to maintain multiple offices to service the same customers as particularly good news coming out of Brexit. A customer somewhere has to pay for that.
You could argue that the exisiting piles of regulation that companies have to deal with have the same benefits and disadvantages.0 -
This is what I have always maintained would occur while the loonies on here thought it would only be an exodus from the UK. This latter has not happened either.Stevo_666 said:And more good news, as EU financial sector firms who need to retain access to one of the worlds largest financial markets flock to the UK on a scale which would appear to substantially offset any outbound relocation:-
https://telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/01/20/boost-city-eu-firms-flock-set-uk-offices-brexit/?li_source=LI&li_medium=li-recommendation-widget
In case its behind a paywall, here you go:
"More than 1,000 EU financial services companies plan to open UK offices after Brexit in a bid to continue serving customers in Britain.
An influx of companies opening offices, hiring staff and renting office space could help to mitigate the economic blow dealt to the City by British institutions moving some of their assets and operations to European financial centres such as Paris and Frankfurt.
A total of 1,441 EU companies had applied to the Financial Conduct Authority by October 2019 for temporary permission to continue operating in the UK after Brexit, according to figures obtained by consultancy Bovill under a freedom of information request.
Temporary clearance will allow banks, insurers and asset managers to carry on serving customers in Britain if the UK and EU do not agree to preserve unfettered access between their financial markets after the Brexit transition period expires at the end of 2020.
It is expected that there will be at least some increase in UK-EU regulatory barriers even if a deal is agreed by December. European firms can currently operate in the UK using their domestic regulatory clearances under the EU's passporting regime.
The financial services sector plays a critical role in the UK economy, generating £75.5bn in tax contributions in the 12 months to March 2019.
Interim approval would give EU firms an opportunity to complete the process of obtaining permanent clearance without needing to cease operating in the UK.
A total of 228 Irish firms have applied for temporary permission to continue operating in the UK until they receive full clearance to set up shop in the UK after Brexit.
Dublin acts as a financial services hub and has attracted several UK insurers, asset managers, banks and law firms to establish or expand their presence as part of their preparations for Brexit.
Companies from France, Cyprus and Germany were the next biggest sources of applications, seeking 170, 165 and 149 temporary licences respectively, according to Bovill.
“In practical terms, these figures mean that European firms will be buying office space, hiring staff and engaging legal and professional advisers in the UK,” said Ed O'Bree, a partner at Bovill."
Extra helpings of humble pie needed for the LMS on here.0 -
So, 1,441 companies have applied for permission to continue operating in the UK. That's not exactly an "influx of companies".
I wonder if any haven't applied?0 -
8,000 currently passport into the UK, so presumably 6,559 have not done so so far.bompington said:So, 1,441 companies have applied for permission to continue operating in the UK. That's not exactly an "influx of companies".
I wonder if any haven't applied?
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Still forecast to be better than the EU growth rate when many on here said we would suffer in this respect.rjsterry said:
We managed 1.3% last year. 1.4% rising to a blistering 1.5% in 2021 is indeed better than nothing. It being a short term forecast I would imagine the probability of it being accurate is reasonably high.Stevo_666 said:
I expect the IMF did some modelling to come to that conclusion. Wonder what some people will make of good news like this?kingstongraham said:This looked like good news - I wonder if some Brexiters are going to magically change their attitudes to IMF forecasts. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/past-six-days/2020-01-20/business/britain-to-grow-faster-than-france-and-germany-next-year-kmhgsntsn
Dependent on “an orderly exit from the European Union at the end of January followed by a gradual transition to a new economic relationship”.
So is it that Brexit maybe won't be as bad as people are saying?"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Many UK FS companies had to establish a presence in the EU to guarantee carry on trading post Brexit. Previously they could supply these services without a local presence in the EU. The above is the reverse situation of EU companies establishing a presence in the UK - hence that statement about opening offices, employing people etc in the UK which is good for employment, the economy and tax revenues. Etc.bompington said:So, 1,441 companies have applied for permission to continue operating in the UK. That's not exactly an "influx of companies".
I wonder if any haven't applied?"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Not exactly. It's a benefit that offsets the outward movements.kingstongraham said:
This is more like an earthquake being positive for GDP because of the extra spending to clear up afterwards. That doesn't make it a good thing.Stevo_666 said:
It has the benefits I mentioned above.kingstongraham said:
Exactly - but this reduced efficiency isn't a positive outcome of Brexit.Stevo_666 said:
They may not have any choice depending on what is agreed (or not) on FS.kingstongraham said:I struggle to see companies having to maintain multiple offices to service the same customers as particularly good news coming out of Brexit. A customer somewhere has to pay for that.
You could argue that the exisiting piles of regulation that companies have to deal with have the same benefits and disadvantages.
Or maybe there is too much regulation which we now have an opportunity to reduce?"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Depends on that orderly exit, doesn't it. And those two aren't mutually exclusive. Do you know what the margin of error is on that forecast?Stevo_666 said:
Still forecast to be better than the EU growth rate when many on here said we would suffer in this respect.rjsterry said:
We managed 1.3% last year. 1.4% rising to a blistering 1.5% in 2021 is indeed better than nothing. It being a short term forecast I would imagine the probability of it being accurate is reasonably high.Stevo_666 said:
I expect the IMF did some modelling to come to that conclusion. Wonder what some people will make of good news like this?kingstongraham said:This looked like good news - I wonder if some Brexiters are going to magically change their attitudes to IMF forecasts. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/past-six-days/2020-01-20/business/britain-to-grow-faster-than-france-and-germany-next-year-kmhgsntsn
Dependent on “an orderly exit from the European Union at the end of January followed by a gradual transition to a new economic relationship”.
So is it that Brexit maybe won't be as bad as people are saying?
The duplication of FS offices might bring some more clients my way, but construction costs look likely to go up even more.1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
But forecasts....Stevo_666 said:
Still forecast to be better than the EU growth rate when many on here said we would suffer in this respect.rjsterry said:
We managed 1.3% last year. 1.4% rising to a blistering 1.5% in 2021 is indeed better than nothing. It being a short term forecast I would imagine the probability of it being accurate is reasonably high.Stevo_666 said:
I expect the IMF did some modelling to come to that conclusion. Wonder what some people will make of good news like this?kingstongraham said:This looked like good news - I wonder if some Brexiters are going to magically change their attitudes to IMF forecasts. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/past-six-days/2020-01-20/business/britain-to-grow-faster-than-france-and-germany-next-year-kmhgsntsn
Dependent on “an orderly exit from the European Union at the end of January followed by a gradual transition to a new economic relationship”.
So is it that Brexit maybe won't be as bad as people are saying?
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I was asking people who claim to know.bompington said:
But forecasts....Stevo_666 said:
Still forecast to be better than the EU growth rate when many on here said we would suffer in this respect.rjsterry said:
We managed 1.3% last year. 1.4% rising to a blistering 1.5% in 2021 is indeed better than nothing. It being a short term forecast I would imagine the probability of it being accurate is reasonably high.Stevo_666 said:
I expect the IMF did some modelling to come to that conclusion. Wonder what some people will make of good news like this?kingstongraham said:This looked like good news - I wonder if some Brexiters are going to magically change their attitudes to IMF forecasts. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/past-six-days/2020-01-20/business/britain-to-grow-faster-than-france-and-germany-next-year-kmhgsntsn
Dependent on “an orderly exit from the European Union at the end of January followed by a gradual transition to a new economic relationship”.
So is it that Brexit maybe won't be as bad as people are saying?"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Sure does. There is a decent chance of that, but regardless it doesnt say a lot about the EU does it?rjsterry said:
Depends on that orderly exit, doesn't it. And those two aren't mutually exclusive. Do you know what the margin of error is on that forecast?Stevo_666 said:
Still forecast to be better than the EU growth rate when many on here said we would suffer in this respect.rjsterry said:
We managed 1.3% last year. 1.4% rising to a blistering 1.5% in 2021 is indeed better than nothing. It being a short term forecast I would imagine the probability of it being accurate is reasonably high.Stevo_666 said:
I expect the IMF did some modelling to come to that conclusion. Wonder what some people will make of good news like this?kingstongraham said:This looked like good news - I wonder if some Brexiters are going to magically change their attitudes to IMF forecasts. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/past-six-days/2020-01-20/business/britain-to-grow-faster-than-france-and-germany-next-year-kmhgsntsn
Dependent on “an orderly exit from the European Union at the end of January followed by a gradual transition to a new economic relationship”.
So is it that Brexit maybe won't be as bad as people are saying?
The duplication of FS offices might bring some more clients my way, but construction costs look likely to go up even more."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
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Predicted growth is a massive 0.1% behind us. We are all below the predicted average for advanced economies of 1.7%. Really not sure how it's good news for any of us.rick_chasey said:Why what does it say about the EU?
Have a guess what the margin of error in that forecast is.1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
It's not doing very well.rick_chasey said:Why what does it say about the EU?
"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
True, but we are still ahead of the EU per that forecast, if only a little. And this is in spite of Brexit. Maybe it's not going to be as bad as many would like it to be....rjsterry said:
Predicted growth is a massive 0.1% behind us. We are all below the predicted average for advanced economies of 1.7%. Really not sure how it's good news for any of us.rick_chasey said:Why what does it say about the EU?
Have a guess what the margin of error in that forecast is."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
What a bizarre last sentenceStevo_666 said:
True, but we are still ahead of the EU per that forecast, if only a little. And this is in spite of Brexit. Maybe it's not going to be as bad as many would like it to be....rjsterry said:
Predicted growth is a massive 0.1% behind us. We are all below the predicted average for advanced economies of 1.7%. Really not sure how it's good news for any of us.rick_chasey said:Why what does it say about the EU?
Have a guess what the margin of error in that forecast is.0 -
I had quick look at the OBR numbers and hours worked in the UK was up more than GDP, which suggests productivity and earnings per hour went down...0
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surrey_commuter said:
What a bizarre last sentenceStevo_666 said:
True, but we are still ahead of the EU per that forecast, if only a little. And this is in spite of Brexit. Maybe it's not going to be as bad as many would like it to be....rjsterry said:
Predicted growth is a massive 0.1% behind us. We are all below the predicted average for advanced economies of 1.7%. Really not sure how it's good news for any of us.rick_chasey said:Why what does it say about the EU?
Have a guess what the margin of error in that forecast is.
We've had that sentiment several times before, always without evidence.0 -
All good points but no need to get that granular. Long-term norm is 2-2.5%, the aspiration is 3%+.rick_chasey said:I had quick look at the OBR numbers and hours worked in the UK was up more than GDP, which suggests productivity and earnings per hour went down...
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Rolf was honest enough to say a while back that he wanted it to go badly so we would then want to rejoin. And the sentiment of some of you - if not stated explicitly - is that you want to say 'I told you so'. Which requires a bad outcome.briantrumpet said:surrey_commuter said:
What a bizarre last sentenceStevo_666 said:
True, but we are still ahead of the EU per that forecast, if only a little. And this is in spite of Brexit. Maybe it's not going to be as bad as many would like it to be....rjsterry said:
Predicted growth is a massive 0.1% behind us. We are all below the predicted average for advanced economies of 1.7%. Really not sure how it's good news for any of us.rick_chasey said:Why what does it say about the EU?
Have a guess what the margin of error in that forecast is.
We've had that sentiment several times before, always without evidence.
Do you want Brexit to go well?"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Do you want Brexit to go well?surrey_commuter said:
What a bizarre last sentenceStevo_666 said:
True, but we are still ahead of the EU per that forecast, if only a little. And this is in spite of Brexit. Maybe it's not going to be as bad as many would like it to be....rjsterry said:
Predicted growth is a massive 0.1% behind us. We are all below the predicted average for advanced economies of 1.7%. Really not sure how it's good news for any of us.rick_chasey said:Why what does it say about the EU?
Have a guess what the margin of error in that forecast is."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Ja sure but the earnings stagnation is, I would argue, the bigger political issue affecting more people, rather than the overall GDP number, and that shows no sign of abating.
It's basically like Japan for the last decade, albeit with more immigration to make the headline figure look better.0 -
Does the answer matter? Unless I'm the governor of the BoE or someone important then probably not.Stevo_666 said:
Rolf was honest enough to say a while back that he wanted it to go badly so we would then want to rejoin. And the sentiment of some of you - if not stated explicitly - is that you want to say 'I told you so'. Which requires a bad outcome.briantrumpet said:surrey_commuter said:
What a bizarre last sentenceStevo_666 said:
True, but we are still ahead of the EU per that forecast, if only a little. And this is in spite of Brexit. Maybe it's not going to be as bad as many would like it to be....rjsterry said:
Predicted growth is a massive 0.1% behind us. We are all below the predicted average for advanced economies of 1.7%. Really not sure how it's good news for any of us.rick_chasey said:Why what does it say about the EU?
Have a guess what the margin of error in that forecast is.
We've had that sentiment several times before, always without evidence.
Do you want Brexit to go well?
Leavers were the ones with the sunlit uplands rubbish, as the people proposing major change the burden of proof is on them. Just because the negatives haven't happened (yet) doesn't mean it wasn't right to consider the risk.
Imagine if me and the OH were arguing about taking in a violent rescue dog, it might be excellent or it might eat us. Even if it turns out to be the second best dog ever and continue our current dog's lineage forever more it wasn't a mistake for me to say no because it might eat us.
Also, it's not necessarily accurate to directly equate our growth with the EU's growth and say because we are both doing badly Brexit had no impact. If we suddenly started doing really badly compared to everyone else then it might be a sign that Brexit was a bad idea though.
We are very small, the potential impact on us is likely to be a lot larger than them and if our measures in 15 years time show that long term we have done significantly worse than the EU then I will say 'I told you so'. If not then happy days! 0 -
I think that is probably one for the NO column Stevo.0
