BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴
Comments
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Before the referendum people were musing on whether they would vote to join the EU if they weren't a member...0
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Ballysmate wrote:Before the referendum people were musing on whether they would vote to join the EU if they weren't a member...
Well. We've grown in the EU more than the US has in the same period.
We've also created a far closer entity, one that has worked hard on environmentals, inclusiveness, and the like.
So yes, I would.
(For the other side, look at the US. Full of utter dicks, warmongers, far worse than Europe - Trump!).0 -
Joelsim wrote:Ballysmate wrote:Before the referendum people were musing on whether they would vote to join the EU if they weren't a member...
Well. We've grown in the EU more than the US has in the same period.
We've also created a far closer entity, one that has worked hard on environmentals, inclusiveness, and the like.
So yes, I would.
(For the other side, look at the US. Full of utter dicks, warmongers, far worse than Europe - Trump!).
No bigotry in this post, no siree!!0 -
Joelsim wrote:Rather beginning to think that Graham is one of those who doesn't face facts, ignores reality, ignores experts and thinks everything will be just swell as long as we get rid of those damn immigrants.
I'm sure I remember voting remain.0 -
Joelsim wrote:KingstonGraham wrote:Joelsim wrote:KingstonGraham wrote:...remember there were plenty of lies on the remain side too.
Which lies were those?
The emergency budget springs to mind.
That wasn't a lie. And I knew you'd say that. Can you honestly say that the UK isn't further in debt now than it would have been? It all has to be paid off at some point whether that's now or in 5 years' time. Don't kid yourself.
That's not an emergency budget "within a couple of months" to increase taxes and reduce spending.0 -
KingstonGraham wrote:Joelsim wrote:KingstonGraham wrote:Joelsim wrote:KingstonGraham wrote:...remember there were plenty of lies on the remain side too.
Which lies were those?
The emergency budget springs to mind.
That wasn't a lie. And I knew you'd say that. Can you honestly say that the UK isn't further in debt now than it would have been? It all has to be paid off at some point whether that's now or in 5 years' time. Don't kid yourself.
That's not an emergency budget "within a couple of months" to increase taxes and reduce spending.
If they had stuck to their original targets then they would have needed an emergency budget to raise more taxes and/or cut spending. As it is they have kicked the can down the road and will fund it by borrowing more money.0 -
If we do get a downturn we'll have to have some kind of emergency fiscal expansion because Brexit forced the BoE's hand and their cupboard is now pretty bare.0
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The forecasts have already been slashed for next year - our forecast growth rate has dropped to almost the level of Germany, France and Italy.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/07/19/imf-slashes-uk-growth-forecasts-after-brexit---but-britain-will/
What happens beyond that reamins to be seen. There are other negative factors coming into play in the wider European and global economy also, such as the likely Chinese slowdown and Italian banking crisis.
With UK interest rates at 0.25%, there is not a lot left to cut. Not quite as bad as in Euroland where the base rate is already zero (as the economic conditions in the Eurozone are worse),, but still extremely low compared to historical levels.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/mar/10/ecb-cuts-eurozone-interest-rate-to-zero
Does help to put it into perspective a bit."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Joelsim wrote:Ballysmate wrote:Before the referendum people were musing on whether they would vote to join the EU if they weren't a member...
Well. We've grown in the EU more than the US has in the same period.
We've also created a far closer entity, one that has worked hard on environmentals, inclusiveness, and the like.
So yes, I would.
(For the other side, look at the US. Full of utter dicks, warmongers, far worse than Europe - Trump!).
Ooo, ow, eeek - don't go there, remember what happened the last time?seanoconn - gruagach craic!0 -
Surrey Commuter wrote:KingstonGraham wrote:Joelsim wrote:KingstonGraham wrote:Joelsim wrote:KingstonGraham wrote:...remember there were plenty of lies on the remain side too.
Which lies were those?
The emergency budget springs to mind.
That wasn't a lie. And I knew you'd say that. Can you honestly say that the UK isn't further in debt now than it would have been? It all has to be paid off at some point whether that's now or in 5 years' time. Don't kid yourself.
That's not an emergency budget "within a couple of months" to increase taxes and reduce spending.
If they had stuck to their original targets then they would have needed an emergency budget to raise more taxes and/or cut spending. As it is they have kicked the can down the road and will fund it by borrowing more money.
So... there wasn't an emergency budget to raise taxes and cut spending. Is it difficult to say that George Osborne might have been exaggerating?0 -
KingstonGraham wrote:Surrey Commuter wrote:KingstonGraham wrote:Joelsim wrote:KingstonGraham wrote:Joelsim wrote:KingstonGraham wrote:...remember there were plenty of lies on the remain side too.
Which lies were those?
The emergency budget springs to mind.
That wasn't a lie. And I knew you'd say that. Can you honestly say that the UK isn't further in debt now than it would have been? It all has to be paid off at some point whether that's now or in 5 years' time. Don't kid yourself.
That's not an emergency budget "within a couple of months" to increase taxes and reduce spending.
If they had stuck to their original targets then they would have needed an emergency budget to raise more taxes and/or cut spending. As it is they have kicked the can down the road and will fund it by borrowing more money.
So... there wasn't an emergency budget to raise taxes and cut spending. Is it difficult to say that George Osborne might have been exaggerating?
Sorry I can not explain it my clearer thn I did.0 -
https://www.ft.com/content/3b1a3c3e-81b ... c15fb462f4
Hope TM knows what she's doing appointing a set of imbeciles to run the whole Brexit thing...German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble has slapped down Boris Johnson, offering to give him lessons on the EU after Britain’s foreign secretary dismissed key EU principles as “baloney”.
In the latest spat over Brexit, Mr Schäuble responded to an assertion by Mr Johnson that there was no “automatic trade-off” between future British access to the EU’s single market and the UK’s acceptance of free movement of goods, services, capital and labour.
“We’ll happily send her majesty’s foreign minister a copy of the Lisbon treaty,” Mr Schäuble joked at a news conference in Berlin after exchanging a weary glance with Michel Sapin, his French counterpart sitting nearby. “He can then read about the fact that there’s a certain connection between the single market and the four freedoms. At a pinch, I can talk about it in English.”
During a visit to New York this week, Mr Johnson described as “complete baloney” the link between British market access and acceptance of the EU principle of free movement of labour.
Mr Sapin said the EU’s so-called four freedoms are “indivisible” and must be respected.
Making clear his disdain for Mr Johnson, who led the campaign to take Britain out of the EU, Mr Schäuble said he and his French colleague “looked at each other because we are both accustomed to having a high degree of respect for foreign ministers”.
The rebuff was the second in two days for Mr Johnson, who was attending the UN General Assembly in New York. On Thursday he said that UK was looking to start formal Brexit talks in early 2017, only for Downing Street to say Prime Minister Theresa May was not committed to any timeframe.0 -
Surrey Commuter wrote:KingstonGraham wrote:Surrey Commuter wrote:KingstonGraham wrote:Joelsim wrote:KingstonGraham wrote:Joelsim wrote:KingstonGraham wrote:...remember there were plenty of lies on the remain side too.
Which lies were those?
The emergency budget springs to mind.
That wasn't a lie. And I knew you'd say that. Can you honestly say that the UK isn't further in debt now than it would have been? It all has to be paid off at some point whether that's now or in 5 years' time. Don't kid yourself.
That's not an emergency budget "within a couple of months" to increase taxes and reduce spending.
If they had stuck to their original targets then they would have needed an emergency budget to raise more taxes and/or cut spending. As it is they have kicked the can down the road and will fund it by borrowing more money.
So... there wasn't an emergency budget to raise taxes and cut spending. Is it difficult to say that George Osborne might have been exaggerating?
Sorry I can not explain it my clearer thn I did.
Nor can I. I'm not saying you are wrong, just that it means that an emergency budget was not the only, inevitable outcome that it was presented as. Because we haven't had one.
At the moment, the only predictions we can say were or weren't right are the immediate impacts of the vote. The pound is down, the FTSE isn't. We haven't had an emergency budget.0 -
See previous quote - already explained myself.Stevo 666 wrote:
I wouldn't worry too much as in my experience, people with that sort of negative, defeatist attitude rarely get into positions where that can influence anything of any significance.KingstonGraham wrote:I get a bit worried that there are people who would rather be proved right than have Britain do well after Brexit. I would be very happy to be wrong, but we'll obviously never know."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Stevo 666 wrote:
See previous quote - already explained myself.Stevo 666 wrote:
I wouldn't worry too much as in my experience, people with that sort of negative, defeatist attitude rarely get into positions where that can influence anything of any significance.KingstonGraham wrote:I get a bit worried that there are people who would rather be proved right than have Britain do well after Brexit. I would be very happy to be wrong, but we'll obviously never know.
Do you honestly think that?
I've met plenty of business leaders, certainly more than anyone else where will have, and as a general rule, above all else, they tend to be realistic.
It's the hyper positive ones that are more likely end up with some kind of Tesco/Enron scenario. Denial of bad stuff is a big red flag.0 -
KingstonGraham wrote:Surrey Commuter wrote:KingstonGraham wrote:Surrey Commuter wrote:KingstonGraham wrote:Joelsim wrote:KingstonGraham wrote:Joelsim wrote:KingstonGraham wrote:...remember there were plenty of lies on the remain side too.
Which lies were those?
The emergency budget springs to mind.
That wasn't a lie. And I knew you'd say that. Can you honestly say that the UK isn't further in debt now than it would have been? It all has to be paid off at some point whether that's now or in 5 years' time. Don't kid yourself.
That's not an emergency budget "within a couple of months" to increase taxes and reduce spending.
If they had stuck to their original targets then they would have needed an emergency budget to raise more taxes and/or cut spending. As it is they have kicked the can down the road and will fund it by borrowing more money.
So... there wasn't an emergency budget to raise taxes and cut spending. Is it difficult to say that George Osborne might have been exaggerating?
Sorry I can not explain it my clearer thn I did.
Nor can I. I'm not saying you are wrong, just that it means that an emergency budget was not the only, inevitable outcome that it was presented as. Because we haven't had one.
At the moment, the only predictions we can say were or weren't right are the immediate impacts of the vote. The pound is down, the FTSE isn't. We haven't had an emergency budget.
Inflation on the up and pensions more at risk. Property market on the slide but mortgages being handed out like smarties.
On the other side of the coin we still do not give £350 million a week to the EU, Turkey has not joined, immigration still has no obvious answer and is not exclusively tied to the EU.0 -
I honestly think that people with negative, defeatist attitudes rarely get into positions of influence. Because its based in what I observe in my business career.Rick Chasey wrote:Stevo 666 wrote:
See previous quote - already explained myself.Stevo 666 wrote:
I wouldn't worry too much as in my experience, people with that sort of negative, defeatist attitude rarely get into positions where that can influence anything of any significance.KingstonGraham wrote:I get a bit worried that there are people who would rather be proved right than have Britain do well after Brexit. I would be very happy to be wrong, but we'll obviously never know.
Do you honestly think that?
I've met plenty of business leaders, certainly more than anyone else where will have, and as a general rule, above all else, they tend to be realistic.
It's the hyper positive ones that are more likely end up with some kind of Tesco/Enron scenario. Denial of bad stuff is a big red flag.
I am actually quite risk averse and tend to weight up the risks pretty carefully in my line of work as the cost of getting it wrong can be substantial."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Well if you didn't like that one, how about leaving costing every household £4,300?0
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KingstonGraham wrote:Well if you didn't like that one, how about leaving costing every household £4,300?
We haven't left yet so we don't know if that will be turn out to be right or wrong.0 -
KingstonGraham wrote:Well if you didn't like that one, how about leaving costing every household £4,300?
I was working off a list in the Telegraph... It is £4,300 per annum by 2030 which seems steep but if we knock 1% off annual growth it could be in the ball park. Delaying Brexit will make the number harder to hit.0 -
Well at the start of the year the company I work for set its earnings target based on continued growth post 2012. The 60 strong team I work in was due to grow by around 10% by the end of the year. Since June earnings have stalled, recruitment was put on hold and now we are making 3 redundancies. The reasons given have been a slow down due to continued uncertainty post Brexit. I'm trying to be optimistic that once the process starts and people get to know what the plan is then things will pick up and also, being construction industry based, that the recent green light for Hinckley together with HS2 and potentially the Swansea Tidal Barrage will give things a boost. However, I feel far more worried than I did after 2009.0
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Pross wrote:Well at the start of the year the company I work for set its earnings target based on continued growth post 2012. The 60 strong team I work in was due to grow by around 10% by the end of the year. Since June earnings have stalled, recruitment was put on hold and now we are making 3 redundancies. The reasons given have been a slow down due to continued uncertainty post Brexit. I'm trying to be optimistic that once the process starts and people get to know what the plan is then things will pick up and also, being construction industry based, that the recent green light for Hinckley together with HS2 and potentially the Swansea Tidal Barrage will give things a boost. However, I feel far more worried than I did after 2009.
Just learn to be positive and everything will be fine.0 -
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The point is that the prediction was always gdp down by that amount, never it costing each household that amount like Osborne said. There were misleading statements on both sides.Surrey Commuter wrote:KingstonGraham wrote:Well if you didn't like that one, how about leaving costing every household £4,300?
I was working off a list in the Telegraph... It is £4,300 per annum by 2030 which seems steep but if we knock 1% off annual growth it could be in the ball park. Delaying Brexit will make the number harder to hit.0 -
KingstonGraham wrote:
The point is that the prediction was always gdp down by that amount, never it costing each household that amount like Osborne said. There were misleading statements on both sides.Surrey Commuter wrote:KingstonGraham wrote:Well if you didn't like that one, how about leaving costing every household £4,300?
I was working off a list in the Telegraph... It is £4,300 per annum by 2030 which seems steep but if we knock 1% off annual growth it could be in the ball park. Delaying Brexit will make the number harder to hit.
yes true, but the big fat ones were told by the outers, points based immigration system, 350m per week to spend on NHS and the biggest one "take back control" and the really sad thing.... people across the country believed it.0 -
Better forecast for the City than some had expected:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/09/19/banks-can-cope-with-loss-of-eu-passports-after-brexit-says-moody/
Potentially good news for those who work and operate there."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
KingstonGraham wrote:
The point is that the prediction was always gdp down by that amount, never it costing each household that amount like Osborne said. There were misleading statements on both sides.Surrey Commuter wrote:KingstonGraham wrote:Well if you didn't like that one, how about leaving costing every household £4,300?
I was working off a list in the Telegraph... It is £4,300 per annum by 2030 which seems steep but if we knock 1% off annual growth it could be in the ball park. Delaying Brexit will make the number harder to hit.
i agree it is a function of GDP but it was expressed as £4,300 per household per annum. To get fall in GDP you need to multiply by 26 million.0 -
Had a look at this. We dont need to get back in: the UK is a member in its own right and will automatically assume WTO rights and obligations when it leaves the EU:finchy wrote:Yes, we'll get in eventually, but how long will that take?
http://www.lawyersforbritain.org/int-trade.shtml
https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-leaving-eu-trade/
So we already have a basic trade agreement in place on which to rely post BREXIT. If you think that is insignificant, then here's a real life business example:-
- The group for which I work enjoys exemption from EU import duties for over 95% by value of the products we manufacture - due to WTO rules. This % is set to rise in the next 2 years as more become exempted.
Not so bad after all
"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Stevo 666 wrote:
Had a look at this. We dont need to get back in: the UK is a member in its own right and will automatically assume WTO rights and obligations when it leaves the EU:finchy wrote:Yes, we'll get in eventually, but how long will that take?
http://www.lawyersforbritain.org/int-trade.shtml
https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-leaving-eu-trade/
So we already have a basic trade agreement in place on which to rely post BREXIT. If you think that is insignificant, then here's a real life business example:-
- The group for which I work enjoys exemption from EU import duties for over 95% by value of the products we manufacture - due to WTO rules. This % is set to rise in the next 2 years as more become exempted.
Not so bad after all
Well, at least we won't be out in the cold entirely (IF that Lawyers For Britain post is correct). However, given some of the details in the fullfact article (such as car imports to the EU being subject to a 10% tariff, and services being more restricted than goods under WTO rules), I've not really changed my mind on the point that staying in the single market and accepting freedom of movement is by far the best option for the country.0 -
True, but given that isn't an option then we need to look at what does work.
Cars are more highly taxed than the average but will be one category where there will be significant pressure from the European auto makers for the EU to cut a deal on what represents a large piece of trade from which the EU benefits materially (I know there is already action on this front).
Fyi the average tariff over all product groups under WTO rules is around 2.3% according to sources I have seen.
See also my post above re financial services. Again, there are some ways around this and the banks are already making contingencies based on conversations I have had when 'comparing notes' with a couple of my opposite numbers in the City."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0
