BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴

Stevo_666

Joelsim wrote:

We aren't where we are yet. There is still much to play for. Until A50 is invoked, which may never happen.

I'd be failing my children if I took your attitude of 'oh well, it's completely wrong but let's just accept it'.

You had your chance to influence at the baloot box and it failed. Same for me.

I am realistic enough to realise that I cannot change the decision but I am doing things within that constraint to make the position as good as possible for the Group I work for. Which also influences my own situation. Not just accepting it, but making a positive difference where its feasible to do so.

What are you proposing to do about it now?

Stevo_666

verylonglegs wrote:

Stevo when you talk about EU trade I can't help but think you are only considering trade between UK and European firms. What about all the foreign firms that base themselves here purely for easy access to the European market? Largely Japanese and American. Think they'll hang around if it's no longer hassle free to build products here and slap a 'Made in EU' sticker on it and ship them to the mainland? They have no influence at all in deciding the outcome yet to get it wrong would probably result in hundreds of thousands out of work, at the very least.

This is also relevant when you cite a trade surplus as a negotiating tool as that surplus is only possible because low employment here means we have a heathly economy and many people with purchasing power. If jobs and investment bleed away then so does demand for overseas produce and suddenly we aren't a special trading partner anymore, the two sides feed each other.

Also I think you are under-estimating the political will of the EU leadership to keep things going regardless, everyone knows the Euro as a currency is unworkable in the long term but we can all bear witness to their determination politically to keep it going. It will be the same with their EU project, they will burn the UK if necessary in order to keep it going.

I get the impression you over-estimate the power of a Tory government in this situation because they are 'your' party. I would love to be wrong I really would but I see scant evidence to suggest otherwise so far.

Of course I include non-EU headquartered manufacturers and other similar businesses. I work for one of them and I am coordinating its BREXIT planning committee.

If you think that these very large companies - and similar ones headquartered in the EU - are not actively involved in influencing the process then you are wrong. I've been in contact with opposite numbers in a few of these organisations and there is already direct contact between groups representing substantial parts of the national economiesin various countries and the governments at national and European level.

I do realise the possibility that some within the EU club as well as in Brussels itself may be spiteful and/or stupid enough to try for an outcome that is bad for both sides. If that is the case, then it is a good argument that in the longer term we are not best served by being in a club with that sort of attitude, run by bunch of self serving d1ckheads - which is what they will be if they deliberately choose a lose lose scenario to preserve their flawed project.

Nor do I overestimate the power of the Tory govt or any other govt. Thinking that the State can solve all our problems is a very socialist assumption.

joelsim

Stevo 666 wrote:

verylonglegs wrote:

Stevo when you talk about EU trade I can't help but think you are only considering trade between UK and European firms. What about all the foreign firms that base themselves here purely for easy access to the European market? Largely Japanese and American. Think they'll hang around if it's no longer hassle free to build products here and slap a 'Made in EU' sticker on it and ship them to the mainland? They have no influence at all in deciding the outcome yet to get it wrong would probably result in hundreds of thousands out of work, at the very least.

This is also relevant when you cite a trade surplus as a negotiating tool as that surplus is only possible because low employment here means we have a heathly economy and many people with purchasing power. If jobs and investment bleed away then so does demand for overseas produce and suddenly we aren't a special trading partner anymore, the two sides feed each other.

Also I think you are under-estimating the political will of the EU leadership to keep things going regardless, everyone knows the Euro as a currency is unworkable in the long term but we can all bear witness to their determination politically to keep it going. It will be the same with their EU project, they will burn the UK if necessary in order to keep it going.

I get the impression you over-estimate the power of a Tory government in this situation because they are 'your' party. I would love to be wrong I really would but I see scant evidence to suggest otherwise so far.

Of course I include non-EU headquartered manufacturers and other similar businesses. I work for one of them and I am coordinating its BREXIT planning committee.

If you think that these very large companies - and similar ones headquartered in the EU - are not actively involved in influencing the process then you are wrong. I've been in contact with opposite numbers in a few of these organisations and there is already direct contact between groups representing substantial parts of the national economiesin various countries and the governments at national and European level.

I do realise the possibility that some within the EU club as well as in Brussels itself may be spiteful and/or stupid enough to try for an outcome that is bad for both sides. If that is the case, then it is a good argument that in the longer term we are not best served by being in a club with that sort of attitude, run by bunch of self serving d1ckheads - which is what they will be if they deliberately choose a lose lose scenario to preserve their flawed project.

Nor do I overestimate the power of the Tory govt or any other govt. Thinking that the State can solve all our problems is a very socialist assumption.

I'm very aware that all the big companies and organisations are having to plan to make the most of a Brexit scenario, they'd be incredibly foolish not to.

The main issue to me seems to be the fact that it is a lose-lose situation for both sides, so the actual job is trying to ensure the least worst scenario. There are far too many people involved protecting their own interests for this to be anything but incredibly difficult. Another huge issue is the way in which the referendum was won, there are an awful lot of people (especially in London) who are absolutely gutted that so many people fell for so many lies. If it had been a 75% decision based on proper reasoning and truths then it would've been far easier.

I work for myself so apart from the probable tax rises and more expensive purchases, it shouldn't really affect me massively financially (unless people stop going on holiday), but I fear it will leave Brit kids with a whole load less opportunity, less jobs available, increased costs to bear in repaying Govt debt, in what is already a very difficult market for them. Certainly not many will be able to afford to buy a house, ever. Blah blah blah...

Also, as I said this isn't over, there are so many hurdles and differences of opinion even in the cabinet of May and the three stooges, without considering the wider political groups. Consequently, there is still much to play for for those who believe that Brexit is wrong on every level. That's not being negative, that's being positive that we can all fight to do the right thing for the majority of this country, especially the young.

And yes Graham, we should remain as part of the EU, I fully believe that.

joelsim

This bloke is an idiot. An arrogant fool.

Restricting freedom of movement isn't an option. And that is the crucial point for the Leave voters. Like it or not that is what they voted on, whether they admit it or not. There are two choices, full Brexit or no Brexit.

http://bloom.bg/2ctcIXm

kingstongraham

Joelsim wrote:

And yes Graham, we should remain as part of the EU, I fully believe that.

Unfortunately that's the only thing that there was a vote on. We lost. There's no agreement for anything other than that.

And remember there were plenty of lies on the remain side too.

Lookyhere

Joelsim wrote:

This bloke is an idiot. An arrogant fool.

Restricting freedom of movement isn't an option. And that is the crucial point for the Leave voters. Like it or not that is what they voted on, whether they admit it or not. There are two choices, full Brexit or no Brexit.

http://bloom.bg/2ctcIXm

yeah i listened to boris on that and thought "what the fcuk is he on about?"

i think some one else said that the vote wasnt binding and only advisory? if so and given the Gov of the day is there to protect our interests, why are they talking of leaving EU ? doesnt make sense,
as the Greek former finance minster said, UK should be in getting change to freedom movement rules instead of wasting so much time on negotiating a deal which is worse than we have.
Also, havent the swiss been negotiating (on trade) for almost 3 years, following their vote to restrict freedom of movement and got precisely no where?
how would the UK do any better? the swiss are hardly a small or unimportant economy.

Stevo_666

Lookyhere wrote:

Also, havent the swiss been negotiating (on trade) for almost 3 years, following their vote to restrict freedom of movement and got precisely no where?
how would the UK do any better? the swiss are hardly a small or unimportant economy.

Switzerland has a GDP roughly 23% of the size of UK GDP. So yes, it is pretty small compared to the UK and so yes we would expect to do better.

joelsim

KingstonGraham wrote:

Joelsim wrote:

And yes Graham, we should remain as part of the EU, I fully believe that.

Unfortunately that's the only thing that there was a vote on. We lost. There's no agreement for anything other than that.

And remember there were plenty of lies on the remain side too.

Which lies were those?

joelsim

Stevo 666 wrote:

Lookyhere wrote:

Also, havent the swiss been negotiating (on trade) for almost 3 years, following their vote to restrict freedom of movement and got precisely no where?
how would the UK do any better? the swiss are hardly a small or unimportant economy.

Switzerland has a GDP roughly 23% of the size of UK GDP. So yes, it is pretty small compared to the UK and so yes we would expect to do better.

Neither of them are anywhere big enough to risk disrupting the 27.

However you feel you want to defend a Brexit, it isn't possible. It wasn't possible before 23rd June, it's not possible now and it's not going to be possible in early 2017 without hammering the economy.

Lookyhere

Stevo 666 wrote:

Lookyhere wrote:

Also, havent the swiss been negotiating (on trade) for almost 3 years, following their vote to restrict freedom of movement and got precisely no where?
how would the UK do any better? the swiss are hardly a small or unimportant economy.

Switzerland has a GDP roughly 23% of the size of UK GDP. So yes, it is pretty small compared to the UK and so yes we would expect to do better.

Still not a small economy and the Swiss were never in the EU, they also have much closer cultural ties to Europe, so why would the EU give us a better deal?????

the reality is that unless we accept Fof M, then we ll get no where and if we do accept this fundamental principle of the EU, we may as well stay and forget the vote, because i do not see how TM can sell a deal which does not curb EU migrants to the UK, it is after all why most people who vote out, based their decision on.

Stevo_666

Not a question of defending BREXIT. Just a logical statement about our relative bargaining power compared to Switzerland.

If we were the same size as Switzerland the doom mongers on here would be really making the point more strongly about our negotiating position.

It is also worth noting that Switzerland is one of the wealthiest countries around on a per capita GDP despite not being in the EU. In fact, higher than any EU country bar Luxembourg which has a similarly friendly tax environment. There seems to be a pattern emerging here which lefties might not like

surrey_commuter

My thoughts;

Armageddon is unlikely - we are more likely to see a 1% reduction in our annual rate of growth. See Einstein and compound interest to see the long term impact of this.

Theresa May is a very smart cookie. There must be a very good reason why she chose 3 complete clowns to lead the Brexit charge.

There are enough "barstards" in the Tory Party who would drag down their own Govt to force an appropriate Brexit.

I have no faith in the UK successfully negotiating anything.

People being negative about Brexit on this forum will have no impact on the UK economy

Stevo_666

Lookyhere wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

Lookyhere wrote:

Also, havent the swiss been negotiating (on trade) for almost 3 years, following their vote to restrict freedom of movement and got precisely no where?
how would the UK do any better? the swiss are hardly a small or unimportant economy.

Switzerland has a GDP roughly 23% of the size of UK GDP. So yes, it is pretty small compared to the UK and so yes we would expect to do better.

Still not a small economy and the Swiss were never in the EU, they also have much closer cultural ties to Europe, so why would the EU give us a better deal?????

the reality is that unless we accept Fof M, then we ll get no where and if we do accept this fundamental principle of the EU, we may as well stay and forget the vote, because i do not see how TM can sell a deal which does not curb EU migrants to the UK, it is after all why most people who vote out, based their decision on.

FFS read my posts above. I never said we would get a better deal :roll: Simply making a logical point about relative bargaining strength.

See also my point about us going into this process with a losers mentality, unfortunately displayed by far too many on here.

surrey_commuter

Stevo 666 wrote:

Lookyhere wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

Lookyhere wrote:

Also, havent the swiss been negotiating (on trade) for almost 3 years, following their vote to restrict freedom of movement and got precisely no where?
how would the UK do any better? the swiss are hardly a small or unimportant economy.

Switzerland has a GDP roughly 23% of the size of UK GDP. So yes, it is pretty small compared to the UK and so yes we would expect to do better.

Still not a small economy and the Swiss were never in the EU, they also have much closer cultural ties to Europe, so why would the EU give us a better deal?????

the reality is that unless we accept Fof M, then we ll get no where and if we do accept this fundamental principle of the EU, we may as well stay and forget the vote, because i do not see how TM can sell a deal which does not curb EU migrants to the UK, it is after all why most people who vote out, based their decision on.

FFS read my posts above. I never said we would get a better deal :roll: Simply making a logical point about relative bargaining strength.

See also my point about us going into this process with a losers mentality, unfortunately displayed by far too many on here.

The Swiss comparison is logical if you ignore politics.

You often make the comment about "losers mentality" but do not explain how being pessimistic on here has an adverse effect on the UK economy or our negotiating position

Stevo_666

Surrey Commuter wrote:

People being negative about Brexit on this forum will have no impact on the UK economy

Thankfully, otherwise we'd be really screwed. The sheer volume of negativity and losers mentality from people who seem to want the UK to do badly so they can say 'I told you so' is depressing.

Stevo_666

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

Lookyhere wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

Lookyhere wrote:

Also, havent the swiss been negotiating (on trade) for almost 3 years, following their vote to restrict freedom of movement and got precisely no where?
how would the UK do any better? the swiss are hardly a small or unimportant economy.

Switzerland has a GDP roughly 23% of the size of UK GDP. So yes, it is pretty small compared to the UK and so yes we would expect to do better.

Still not a small economy and the Swiss were never in the EU, they also have much closer cultural ties to Europe, so why would the EU give us a better deal?????

the reality is that unless we accept Fof M, then we ll get no where and if we do accept this fundamental principle of the EU, we may as well stay and forget the vote, because i do not see how TM can sell a deal which does not curb EU migrants to the UK, it is after all why most people who vote out, based their decision on.

FFS read my posts above. I never said we would get a better deal :roll: Simply making a logical point about relative bargaining strength.

See also my point about us going into this process with a losers mentality, unfortunately displayed by far too many on here.

The Swiss comparison is logical if you ignore politics.

You often make the comment about "losers mentality" but do not explain how being pessimistic on here has an adverse effect on the UK economy or our negotiating position

Not ignoring politics. As explained above, politics cannot ignore business, jobs, prosperity. And business has a fair bit of clout given it is the 'goose that lays the golden egg'.

If our negotiating team went in with the mindset of some people on here we'd be screwed. Also if you talk and act like a loser...

surrey_commuter

Stevo 666 wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

People being negative about Brexit on this forum will have no impact on the UK economy

Thankfully, otherwise we'd be really screwed. The sheer volume of negativity and losers mentality from people who seem to want the UK to do badly so they can say 'I told you so' is depressing.

How do you know that is why they are doing it? I can not speak for anybody else but I believe that free trade is good for our economy so leaving the world's largest trade bloc is a bad thing.

Do you not think it is ironic that the Brexiteers clutch at any good news story about new trade deals. It would make far more sense for them all to do a hard Brexit and join the other 20 oddballs with no WTO Membership.

ballysmate

I too voted to remain but I backed the losing side. We have to make the best of the situation we are in. All this bleating about what could happen is helping no-one.
Some on here are sticking their heads in the sand saying that A50 won't be triggered, clinging on to the belief that Parliament won't allow it. Utter nonsense. May has said that she will trigger it next year and the advice is that Parliament doesn't have to ratify it. Corbyn has accepted the situation, in fact some believe he will welcome it. Fallon accepts it will be ratified and spouts nonsense about a referendum on the negotiated terms. More nonsense. To get the negotiations started we have to trigger A50 and there is no going back. No EU leader has suggested that they believe we will not leave, as far as I know.
What is done is done. Time to accept it, roll our collective sleeves up and get on with making the best of the situation.

surrey_commuter

Stevo 666 wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

Lookyhere wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

Lookyhere wrote:

Also, havent the swiss been negotiating (on trade) for almost 3 years, following their vote to restrict freedom of movement and got precisely no where?
how would the UK do any better? the swiss are hardly a small or unimportant economy.

Switzerland has a GDP roughly 23% of the size of UK GDP. So yes, it is pretty small compared to the UK and so yes we would expect to do better.

Still not a small economy and the Swiss were never in the EU, they also have much closer cultural ties to Europe, so why would the EU give us a better deal?????

the reality is that unless we accept Fof M, then we ll get no where and if we do accept this fundamental principle of the EU, we may as well stay and forget the vote, because i do not see how TM can sell a deal which does not curb EU migrants to the UK, it is after all why most people who vote out, based their decision on.

FFS read my posts above. I never said we would get a better deal :roll: Simply making a logical point about relative bargaining strength.

See also my point about us going into this process with a losers mentality, unfortunately displayed by far too many on here.

The Swiss comparison is logical if you ignore politics.

You often make the comment about "losers mentality" but do not explain how being pessimistic on here has an adverse effect on the UK economy or our negotiating position

Not ignoring politics. As explained above, politics cannot ignore business, jobs, prosperity. And business has a fair bit of clout given it is the 'goose that lays the golden egg'.

If our negotiating team went in with the mindset of some people on here we'd be screwed. Also if you talk and act like a loser...

You still do not explain the link between our negotiating team and people venting on here. How could the two be related?

Lookyhere

Stevo 666 wrote:

It is also worth noting that Switzerland is one of the wealthiest countries around on a per capita GDP despite not being in the EU. In fact, higher than any EU country bar Luxembourg which has a similarly friendly tax environment. There seems to be a pattern emerging here which lefties might not like

The swiss have never been in the EU and have taken decades to build their trading relationships with various trading blocks inc the EU, we on the other hand do not have decades, remember, we were a basket case of an economy when we joined, we are now doing quite well, to do with the EU or not?

they also dont pretend to be a world super power, so can invest in their country instead of say, Nuclear weapons.

its not about a losers mentality or doom mongering, its about a difference of opinion and is nothing to do with left or right either, stop pretending it is,
got to wonder if you really are who you say you are, as you come across as the p1ssed up bloke down the pub at times.

surrey_commuter

Ballysmate wrote:

I too voted to remain but I backed the losing side. We have to make the best of the situation we are in. All this bleating about what could happen is helping no-one.
Some on here are sticking their heads in the sand saying that A50 won't be triggered, clinging on to the belief that Parliament won't allow it. Utter nonsense. May has said that she will trigger it next year and the advice is that Parliament doesn't have to ratify it. Corbyn has accepted the situation, in fact some believe he will welcome it. Fallon accepts it will be ratified and spouts nonsense about a referendum on the negotiated terms. More nonsense. To get the negotiations started we have to trigger A50 and there is no going back. No EU leader has suggested that they believe we will not leave, as far as I know.
What is done is done. Time to accept it, roll our collective sleeves up and get on with making the best of the situation.

But the delay leads to conjecture and economic harm. Most now accept there will be no Norwegian Deal, if Passporting Rights were off the table then there would be a strong argument for a hard and fast exit and the get on with it.

rick_chasey

Bally - I don't know who you're speaking to but broadly most remainers have accepted it.

What I cannot stand from Brexiters and the gurning positive 't's an opportunity' types is this idea that 'it'll all be OK'.

It won't be if people keep thinking that.

We need people to understand it's a sh!tty situation and it's going to be a herculean effort not to f*ck it for everyone.

If people like David Davis are using the same lilliput syndrome affected logic Brexiters and Stevo are using, we're going to lose out a lot.

Only if people appreciate how difficult the situation is, and how hard it's going to be to get anything vaguely resembling a 'good deal' for the UK, will we actually get somewhere.


Where are these free-market brexiters I've heard so much about? And why the f*ck aren't they agitating to stay in the EEA?

I mean, we're in this mess, let's not making any worse than it needs to be. This blind faith that the immigration obsessed 1930's style PM will keep us in the free market, when the only line in the sand she's drawn is on immigration, will not get us out of the mess.

ballysmate

Rick, most have but some still think along the lines of

Fortunately there is a very long way to go before A50 is invoked. Forces at work to ensure it's a Parliamentary decision rather than led by a bunch of self-interested f*cktards. Given that 80% of Parliament are Remainers with sense...

Stevo_666

Lookyhere wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

It is also worth noting that Switzerland is one of the wealthiest countries around on a per capita GDP despite not being in the EU. In fact, higher than any EU country bar Luxembourg which has a similarly friendly tax environment. There seems to be a pattern emerging here which lefties might not like

The swiss have never been in the EU and have taken decades to build their trading relationships with various trading blocks inc the EU, we on the other hand do not have decades, remember, we were a basket case of an economy when we joined, we are now doing quite well, to do with the EU or not?

they also dont pretend to be a world super power, so can invest in their country instead of say, Nuclear weapons.

its not about a losers mentality or doom mongering, its about a difference of opinion and is nothing to do with left or right either, stop pretending it is,
got to wonder if you really are who you say you are, as you come across as the p1ssed up bloke down the pub at times.

I dont give t0ss who you think I am.

But clearly making a few points about the ability to thrive outside of the EU and about tax seem to touch a nerve with you. The Swiss and Lux crew for your info have also had a relatively friendly tax and business environment for decades as well

Stevo_666

Rick Chasey wrote:

Where are these free-market brexiters I've heard so much about? And why the f*ck aren't they agitating to stay in the EEA?

I'll let the repeated and misguided Lilliput point go, but do have to wonder why you are so obsessed with it personally.

ERA membership is clearly one of the options and if you look at what business want out of a deal it probably most closely equates to the EEA model. IMO most business people myself included voted to stay in.

kingstongraham

Joelsim wrote:

KingstonGraham wrote:

Joelsim wrote:

And yes Graham, we should remain as part of the EU, I fully believe that.

Unfortunately that's the only thing that there was a vote on. We lost. There's no agreement for anything other than that.

And remember there were plenty of lies on the remain side too.

Which lies were those?

The emergency budget springs to mind.

ballysmate

KingstonGraham wrote:

Joelsim wrote:

KingstonGraham wrote:

Joelsim wrote:

And yes Graham, we should remain as part of the EU, I fully believe that.

Unfortunately that's the only thing that there was a vote on. We lost. There's no agreement for anything other than that.

And remember there were plenty of lies on the remain side too.

Which lies were those?

The emergency budget springs to mind.

How many remainers built a nuclear fall out shelter for the outbreak of WW III?.....Thought so.

joelsim

KingstonGraham wrote:

Joelsim wrote:

KingstonGraham wrote:

Joelsim wrote:

And yes Graham, we should remain as part of the EU, I fully believe that.

Unfortunately that's the only thing that there was a vote on. We lost. There's no agreement for anything other than that.

And remember there were plenty of lies on the remain side too.

Which lies were those?

The emergency budget springs to mind.

That wasn't a lie. And I knew you'd say that. Can you honestly say that the UK isn't further in debt now than it would have been? It all has to be paid off at some point whether that's now or in 5 years' time. Don't kid yourself.

joelsim

Rather beginning to think that Graham is one of those who doesn't face facts, ignores reality, ignores experts and thinks everything will be just swell as long as we get rid of those damn immigrants.

Stevo_666

http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/09/whod-join-a-club-that-punishes-you-for-leaving/