BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴
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KingstonGraham wrote:Joelsim wrote:There is almost certainly no chance of a soft Brexit. It's been clear that the EU are not going to change the free movement aspect, so we either leave or we don't. If we do then it's inconceivable that we'll have free access to the single market.
But you don't have to dance to the tune of the hard line Brexiteers. They represent a proportion of the 52% of people who voted leave. They don't have a mandate for whatever they want, only to leave the EU. That is how democracy works.
Well it remains to be seen if Parliament/the public will get a chance to specify what Brexit means.
Currently this revolting government is trying everything possible to avoid anyone having a say in this. Unless they are magicians then the option is hard Brexit or no Brexit (just as it's been since before the referendum).0 -
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Joelsim wrote:
Yes I thought this was obvious to everyone from the moment he said he was going to back Leave.0 -
bobmcstuff wrote:Joelsim wrote:
Yes I thought this was obvious to everyone from the moment he said he was going to back Leave.
Yep, but it's been confirmed now.0 -
Also have to agree with everything in the FT article linked above, it's hard to see any other option since the EU won't compromise on freedom of movement and on our side keeping all the EU rules isn't really compatible with this sovereignty issue Brexiters keep going on about.
My boss is a Brexit fan and he seems to think we will trigger A50 and then suddenly get all these amazing trade deals, despite the fact that trade deals historically take years to negotiate. But because we're not part of the EU we're somehow going to be able to secure them in a matter of months.
Something else that worries me is the possibility that negotiations turn sour early on in the A50 process, leaving us unable to secure transitional arrangements. Meaning we effectively get dumped out cold. I'm a realist in that in time I think we can get back to a palatable situation, but the best way to get there has to be by a defined and equitable process (preferably with plenty of time for adjustment). Sudden disruptions and publicly heated negotiations will make that more difficult.0 -
We'll be alright.0
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Trouble being that the EU will not entertain a soft exit.KingstonGraham wrote:Joelsim wrote:There is almost certainly no chance of a soft Brexit. It's been clear that the EU are not going to change the free movement aspect, so we either leave or we don't. If we do then it's inconceivable that we'll have free access to the single market.
But you don't have to dance to the tune of the hard line Brexiteers. They represent a proportion of the 52% of people who voted leave. They don't have a mandate for whatever they want, only to leave the EU. That is how democracy works.
For them it is remain, or hard exit. We voted for exit.The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
Yeah, like I said, I'm sure we will get to something acceptable at some point. Just seems like there are a lot of issues along the way and a lot of potentials to have things be worse than they need to be, at least in the medium term - I don't really trust our politicians not to make at least a few moderate balls-ups as we go along (best case scenario).KingstonGraham wrote:We'll be alright.0 -
KingstonGraham wrote:We'll be alright.
That's a very dangerous attitude.
We will be f*cked for quite some time if we leave, unemployment, debts, tax rises, service cuts. And for what?
Yes, we'll survive but it'll be particularly horrible and our kids will end up paying it off for decades.0 -
Business with the UK is very important for EU businesses and countries. The EU as a whole runs a huge trade surplus in goods with the UK so they have a lot to lose in that respect by not doing a deal. To think they can just ignore that is unrealistic."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0
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Joelsim wrote:KingstonGraham wrote:We'll be alright.
That's a very dangerous attitude.
We will be f*cked for quite some time if we leave, unemployment, debts, tax rises, service cuts. And for what?
Yes, we'll survive but it'll be particularly horrible and our kids will end up paying it off for decades.
I think that's a dangerous attitude. We're leaving in some form or another, best not to assume there's nothing in prospect than doom whatever we do. In my opinion.0 -
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Nope, business reality.Rick Chasey wrote:Stevo 666 wrote:Business with the UK is very important for EU businesses and countries. The EU as a whole runs a huge trade surplus in goods with the UK so they have a lot to lose in that respect by not doing a deal. To think they can just ignore that is unrealistic.
Lilliput syndrome.
Estimates are that 3.6m UK jobs are tied to trade with the EU: 5.8m EU jobs are linked to trade with the UK. Who has more to lose from not cutting a sensible trade deal with the UK?
Of course the EU could decide to cut their noses off to spite their face but that would if anything tell us what sort institution we are really dealing with. That said, I know that very large EU headquartered multinationals are lobbying hard in Brussels and in their own countries. It would be unwise politicians that ignore them."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Stevo 666 wrote:Business with the UK is very important for EU businesses and countries. The EU as a whole runs a huge trade surplus in goods with the UK so they have a lot to lose in that respect by not doing a deal. To think they can just ignore that is unrealistic.
Are you really an accountant? or a vtech?
We have to carry on on importing from eu, which gov is going to allow food and goods shortages within the UK ? they on the other hand can manage without us.
will our business leaders suddenly be happy not being able to buy BMs or Merc's or supplying their company car drivers with Skodas or fords
how many of those 5.6m eu jobs located in the UK ? on either side deal or no deal, they wont just disappear.
the eu cannot in any shape or form allow the uk, easily, to be a success, also, we are going to spend years negotiating with the EU to get a deal worse than we ve got right now,
given we ve not got an unlimited number of trade specialists, when or how are will we get round to dealing with the rest of the world?0 -
On the other hand, admitting that a Country can leave the EU and maintain the biggest benefit would be the end of the EU. Wishful thinking.Stevo 666 wrote:Business with the UK is very important for EU businesses and countries. The EU as a whole runs a huge trade surplus in goods with the UK so they have a lot to lose in that respect by not doing a deal. To think they can just ignore that is unrealistic.The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
Joelsim wrote:KingstonGraham wrote:We'll be alright.
That's a very dangerous attitude.
We will be f*cked for quite some time if we leave, unemployment, debts, tax rises, service cuts. And for what?
Yes, we'll survive but it'll be particularly horrible and our kids will end up paying it off for decades.
Just like we, our kids and the grandchildren/great grandchildren/great great grandchildren to come are paying off the incredulous financial f**k up incurred by the Blair&Brown New Labour administration.
Move on please, the world's geopolitical landscape continuously evolves. Get used to it.Always be yourself, unless you can be Aaron Rodgers....Then always be Aaron Rodgers.0 -
Yes I think people are underestimating the political will in Europe to prevent us from getting off too lightly.PBlakeney wrote:
On the other hand, admitting that a Country can leave the EU and maintain the biggest benefit would be the end of the EU. Wishful thinking.Stevo 666 wrote:Business with the UK is very important for EU businesses and countries. The EU as a whole runs a huge trade surplus in goods with the UK so they have a lot to lose in that respect by not doing a deal. To think they can just ignore that is unrealistic.
I'm sure they would like to keep all the trade surplus but in reality they aren't going to lose it all whatever happens and it's also a much smaller % of EUs total trade than it is of GBs.0 -
Stevo 666 wrote:
Nope, business reality.Rick Chasey wrote:Stevo 666 wrote:Business with the UK is very important for EU businesses and countries. The EU as a whole runs a huge trade surplus in goods with the UK so they have a lot to lose in that respect by not doing a deal. To think they can just ignore that is unrealistic.
Lilliput syndrome.
Estimates are that 3.6m UK jobs are tied to trade with the EU: 5.8m EU jobs are linked to trade with the UK. Who has more to lose from not cutting a sensible trade deal with the UK?
Of course the EU could decide to cut their noses off to spite their face but that would if anything tell us what sort institution we are really dealing with. That said, I know that very large EU headquartered multinationals are lobbying hard in Brussels and in their own countries. It would be unwise politicians that ignore them.
1)Think you're getting your proportions mixed up mate. UK has a population of 64 million, EU ex UK, 680 million. Even excluding the working age pop - which is proportionally lower in the UK compared to the EU, that's 5.6% of UK population versus 0.8% of the EU's. Like I said, lilliput syndrome.
2) The negotiations aren't with one body that decides on behalf of everyone. It's 27 countries, each which has a veto over the entire deal. You don't think there are a few countries out there who really won't feel much pain with UK leaving? Not one?0 -
Just because a job is LINKED with trade to the UK does not mean it is DEPENDENT on trade with the UK. It's not like these countries will be selling to the UK and nobody else but the UK.
The EU buys 40% of our exports. The UK buys 8% of the EU's exports. We aren't self-sufficient in food and we have to import a load of manufactured goods. These are covered by WTO rules. The services that we export aren't covered by WTO rules. We'd have to blink first if we ended up in difficult negotiations.
Both the EU and UK would be better off negotiating a deal allowing freedom of movement in exchange for membership of the single market. I can't believe the government are even considering anything other than that. We don't have time to play games, once we're out of the EU we won't have a single trade deal with any country anywhere in the world.0 -
Point is, people who seem to think the UK is in a strong negotiating position don't understand a) negotiations and b) proportions.
The UK isn't even the second biggest economy in the EU right now.0 -
This is something that I don't get. Apparently Norway and Switzerland have allowed freedom of movement for access to the single market, but they don't have the same access as EU countries. I can ship stuff to countries in the EU with no paperwork, it's the same as shipping within the UK. If I ship to Norway or Switzerland I have to include invoices for customs and I get the Swiss asking me to falsify declarations on a regular basis. We will not have the same access to the single market, costs will go up even if we agree to free movement.finchy wrote:Both the EU and UK would be better off negotiating a deal allowing freedom of movement in exchange for membership of the single market.0 -
Veronese68 wrote:
This is something that I don't get. Apparently Norway and Switzerland have allowed freedom of movement for access to the single market, but they don't have the same access as EU countries. I can ship stuff to countries in the EU with no paperwork, it's the same as shipping within the UK. If I ship to Norway or Switzerland I have to include invoices for customs and I get the Swiss asking me to falsify declarations on a regular basis. We will not have the same access to the single market, costs will go up even if we agree to free movement.finchy wrote:Both the EU and UK would be better off negotiating a deal allowing freedom of movement in exchange for membership of the single market.
How much does it all cost? My customers are all from the UK or EU, so I haven't had any issues like this. I think the only time I have dealt with Swiss companies, they did it through UK-based agencies.0 -
I think this thread just goes to show that Brexiteers stick their fingers in their ears regularly.
Leaving the EU cannot possibly be beneficial to the UK on any level.0 -
Not sure of the exact costs as courier companies deal with most of the paperwork, but to send 10kg to Norway or Switzerland costs £7 more than to any EU destinations. We ship several hundred parcels a day worldwide, but the majority of it is within the EU.finchy wrote:How much does it all cost? My customers are all from the UK or EU, so I haven't had any issues like this. I think the only time I have dealt with Swiss companies, they did it through UK-based agencies.0 -
Joelsim wrote:I think this thread just goes to show that Brexiteers stick their fingers in their ears regularly.
Leaving the EU cannot possibly be beneficial to the UK on any level.
Is the juxtaposition of those two sentences meant to be funny?0 -
Erm, the absence of a trade deal doesn't mean that trade just ceases :roll:mamba80 wrote:Stevo 666 wrote:Business with the UK is very important for EU businesses and countries. The EU as a whole runs a huge trade surplus in goods with the UK so they have a lot to lose in that respect by not doing a deal. To think they can just ignore that is unrealistic.
Are you really an accountant? or a vtech?
We have to carry on on importing from eu, which gov is going to allow food and goods shortages within the UK ? they on the other hand can manage without us.
will our business leaders suddenly be happy not being able to buy BMs or Merc's or supplying their company car drivers with Skodas or fords
how many of those 5.6m eu jobs located in the UK ? on either side deal or no deal, they wont just disappear.
the eu cannot in any shape or form allow the uk, easily, to be a success, also, we are going to spend years negotiating with the EU to get a deal worse than we ve got right now,
given we ve not got an unlimited number of trade specialists, when or how are will we get round to dealing with the rest of the world?
Sure, the EU does not want it to look like we are getting off lightly but as I said, its two way trade and there is a clear element of cutting off their nose to spite their face if they want to go down that route."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Percentage wise yes. But I quoted absolute numbers - so my point still stands that they have a lot to lose.Rick Chasey wrote:Stevo 666 wrote:
Nope, business reality.Rick Chasey wrote:Stevo 666 wrote:Business with the UK is very important for EU businesses and countries. The EU as a whole runs a huge trade surplus in goods with the UK so they have a lot to lose in that respect by not doing a deal. To think they can just ignore that is unrealistic.
Lilliput syndrome.
Estimates are that 3.6m UK jobs are tied to trade with the EU: 5.8m EU jobs are linked to trade with the UK. Who has more to lose from not cutting a sensible trade deal with the UK?
Of course the EU could decide to cut their noses off to spite their face but that would if anything tell us what sort institution we are really dealing with. That said, I know that very large EU headquartered multinationals are lobbying hard in Brussels and in their own countries. It would be unwise politicians that ignore them.
1)Think you're getting your proportions mixed up mate. UK has a population of 64 million, EU ex UK, 680 million. Even excluding the working age pop - which is proportionally lower in the UK compared to the EU, that's 5.6% of UK population versus 0.8% of the EU's. Like I said, lilliput syndrome.
2) The negotiations aren't with one body that decides on behalf of everyone. It's 27 countries, each which has a veto over the entire deal. You don't think there are a few countries out there who really won't feel much pain with UK leaving? Not one?
I agree, the nature of the ratification is the biggest unknown."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Nor is it black or white.Rick Chasey wrote:Point is, people who seem to think the UK is in a strong negotiating position don't understand a) negotiations and b) proportions.
The UK isn't even the second biggest economy in the EU right now.
It will depend on the relative strengths and I reckon an agreement will be reached that is somewhere on the 'spectrum' - clearly a deal that replicates what we have now is totally unfeasible. I also think it is unlikely that no deal at all with be reached: there are too many powerful vested interests who do not want that to happen - ref my earlier point about big business in Europe."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
KingstonGraham wrote:Joelsim wrote:I think this thread just goes to show that Brexiteers stick their fingers in their ears regularly.
Leaving the EU cannot possibly be beneficial to the UK on any level.
Is the juxtaposition of those two sentences meant to be funny?
Yes."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
The ones that make me laugh are the people saying Brexit has worked well for them, or the Italian customer that complained we shouldn't be charging VAT now we have left the EU. Do people not know it hasn't happened yet?0
