BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴
Comments
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Cant see any data on that - can you show me any? Easy to quote a few examples of areas where we are not involved in a big way while ignoring those where we are.verylonglegs wrote:Look at how few global companies the UK has compared to others in the sector, it reflects long term policy going back decades. Our automotive companies where sh1t were until overseas management took over, hence Jaguar and Mini are thriving brand names now. Nuclear power, are we now not buying that off the French and Chinese? Electronics...ARM is at the forefront but they don't make anything as such, they license designs. Looking forward...wind turbines..any UK firms to be found there? Electric cars? As a nation we are well behind the curve and it's unlikely it will change anytime soon without radical government policy.
Govt policy changes such as what? Give a few specific examples of policies in place elsewhere that we need to take up here in the UK."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Stevo 666 wrote:
Cant see any stats in there but no idea why Grrman IHT makes a difference. Rules are different but it is still a cost. And as mentioned, UK IHT is largely avoidable.Surrey Commuter wrote:Stevo 666 wrote:
Can you show some facts to support the assertion in your first sentence? Not sure I have ever seen any.Surrey Commuter wrote:Why do so few british companies grow past being small enterprises compared to Germany. Could it be due to tax incentives and inheritance tax?
As for the second sentence, unlikely even the first is true. Not aware of any major incentives for small German companies that make the fiscal position more benign than the UK.
http://www.economist.com/news/business/ ... an-lessons
I read recently there is pressure to change inheritance tax which could put this economic miracle at risk
Whilst looking for your stats I came across an article explaining how Germany creates high value jobs with companies working hand in glove with local,universities and has very low youth unemployment. It seemed pertinent to the ongoing discussion. The stats are implied.
Here is a reference to potential IHT problems.
http://www.economist.com/news/business- ... hard-place0 -
I read this report before the referendum that said the UK was leading the way in Europe, with 18 unicorns, valued at almost $40B. The next closest country, Sweden, has 7. And what do those 18 companies (in fact, all across Europe) have in common? They're all digital. The UK apparently has a booming tech sector, outside of manufacturing. Perhaps this is a good indicator that we need to focusing/investing elsewhere?0
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JoeNobody wrote:I read this report before the referendum that said the UK was leading the way in Europe, with 18 unicorns, valued at almost $40B. The next closest country, Sweden, has 7. And what do those 18 companies (in fact, all across Europe) have in common? They're all digital. The UK apparently has a booming tech sector, outside of manufacturing. Perhaps this is a good indicator that we need to focusing/investing elsewhere?
i thought unicorns were mythical creatures created by childrens authors but they are infact real and we ve 18 and the swedes 7, then no wonder they are worth so much!
the future is indeed bright post Brexit and we can trade around the world with so many unicorns, Coopster was right, roll on article 50, is all i can say.0 -
It's a red herring as I've said before, IHT is avoidable with a bit of straightforward planning in the UK. However as you say, the German lefties may be about to spoil their own party.Surrey Commuter wrote:Stevo 666 wrote:
Cant see any stats in there but no idea why Grrman IHT makes a difference. Rules are different but it is still a cost. And as mentioned, UK IHT is largely avoidable.Surrey Commuter wrote:Stevo 666 wrote:
Can you show some facts to support the assertion in your first sentence? Not sure I have ever seen any.Surrey Commuter wrote:Why do so few british companies grow past being small enterprises compared to Germany. Could it be due to tax incentives and inheritance tax?
As for the second sentence, unlikely even the first is true. Not aware of any major incentives for small German companies that make the fiscal position more benign than the UK.
http://www.economist.com/news/business/ ... an-lessons
I read recently there is pressure to change inheritance tax which could put this economic miracle at risk
Whilst looking for your stats I came across an article explaining how Germany creates high value jobs with companies working hand in glove with local,universities and has very low youth unemployment. It seemed pertinent to the ongoing discussion. The stats are implied.
Here is a reference to potential IHT problems.
http://www.economist.com/news/business- ... hard-place"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Post Brexit vote, we are selling ARM to the japanese, is there assurances it ll stay in UK ? or the tech will stay in the UK?
a cheap sale given the sate of the pound too.
i thought after the Cadbury thing, we were supposed to be stopping this sort of sell off? its not as if ARM were going to go bust without inward investment.0 -
Conventional wisdom is the German treatment of tax write offs for research, coupled with a much cosier relationship between companies, banks and local government (the Lander) are what have driven the undoubted success of the Mittelstand. ( I also personally believe better infrastructure associated with the allies carpet bombing in 1944 followed by the Marshall plan and centrally planned economies by Adenaur, but I may be wrong!). Family ownership definitely helps. I do a bit of work with my old business school on startup mentoring and to my eyes a big in the UK is the focus on tech ventures with "success" being an exit strategy with your app/tech being bought by Google ventures, Facebook or Microsoft. Its of course a generalization but little seems to be on building stuff which as I mentioned before has a much more positive impact on the local community.Stevo 666 wrote:
It's a red herring as I've said before, IHT is avoidable with a bit of straightforward planning in the UK. However as you say, the German lefties may be about to spoil their own party.Surrey Commuter wrote:Stevo 666 wrote:
Cant see any stats in there but no idea why Grrman IHT makes a difference. Rules are different but it is still a cost. And as mentioned, UK IHT is largely avoidable.Surrey Commuter wrote:Stevo 666 wrote:
Can you show some facts to support the assertion in your first sentence? Not sure I have ever seen any.Surrey Commuter wrote:Why do so few british companies grow past being small enterprises compared to Germany. Could it be due to tax incentives and inheritance tax?
As for the second sentence, unlikely even the first is true. Not aware of any major incentives for small German companies that make the fiscal position more benign than the UK.
http://www.economist.com/news/business/ ... an-lessons
I read recently there is pressure to change inheritance tax which could put this economic miracle at risk
Whilst looking for your stats I came across an article explaining how Germany creates high value jobs with companies working hand in glove with local,universities and has very low youth unemployment. It seemed pertinent to the ongoing discussion. The stats are implied.
Here is a reference to potential IHT problems.
http://www.economist.com/news/business- ... hard-placeFitter....healthier....more productive.....0 -
mamba80 wrote:Post Brexit vote, we are selling ARM to the japanese, is there assurances it ll stay in UK ? or the tech will stay in the UK?
a cheap sale given the sate of the pound too.
i thought after the Cadbury thing, we were supposed to be stopping this sort of sell off? its not as if ARM were going to go bust without inward investment.
It is a private company - why should they not be allowed to sell it to whomever they want?
Not sure what it has to do with Brexit but Japan is a fantastic example of a closed economy that can not use immigration to alleviate the impact of a demographic timebomb. This is why Japanese companies are willing to pay a premium for overseas companies as they know their home market will shrink by up to 40%.0 -
Surrey Commuter wrote:mamba80 wrote:Post Brexit vote, we are selling ARM to the japanese, is there assurances it ll stay in UK ? or the tech will stay in the UK?
a cheap sale given the sate of the pound too.
i thought after the Cadbury thing, we were supposed to be stopping this sort of sell off? its not as if ARM were going to go bust without inward investment.
It is a private company - why should they not be allowed to sell it to whomever they want?
Not sure what it has to do with Brexit but Japan is a fantastic example of a closed economy that can not use immigration to alleviate the impact of a demographic timebomb. This is why Japanese companies are willing to pay a premium for overseas companies as they know their home market will shrink by up to 40%.
UK is an attractive target at the moment due to the slide in the value of the pound. Arm's share price was still basically the same and it's business hasn't changed.
Softbank are betting they are going to be big in the "Internet of things".
(Arm doesn't actually make anything - it licences designs to other manufacturers)0 -
"We are selling"? Not quite, the shareholders are selling. Still this confusion between state and private business...although really a rather good price given it is at a 43% premium over the Friday closing stock price.mamba80 wrote:Post Brexit vote, we are selling ARM to the japanese, is there assurances it ll stay in UK ? or the tech will stay in the UK?
a cheap sale given the sate of the pound too.
i thought after the Cadbury thing, we were supposed to be stopping this sort of sell off? its not as if ARM were going to go bust without inward investment.
You'd better ask ARM or its new owners but it is already a multinational with locations around the world (from Wiki):
"The company has offices and design centres across the world, including San Jose, California, Austin, Texas, Chandler, Arizona and Olympia, Washington in the United States; Bangalore and Noida in India; Trondheim in Norway; Lund in Sweden; Sophia Antipolis in France; Munich in Germany; Yokohama in Japan; China, Taiwan, Slovenia and Hungary."
So not sure what your point is here about 'staying in the UK?
Aside from that, the fact that a Foreign company has invested around £23billion is a UK headquartered company is a great testament to the attractiveness of the UK as a place to do business and for foreign direct investment post BREXIT. Thanks for pointing this out mamba
"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
It sounds like we breed them, and do so better than other European nations, or at least we did pre-brexit. It remains to be seen what happens now - seems Berlin is keen on capturing our breeding grounds...mamba80 wrote:i thought unicorns were mythical creatures created by childrens authors but they are infact real and we ve 18 and the swedes 7, then no wonder they are worth so much!
the future is indeed bright post Brexit and we can trade around the world with so many unicorns, Coopster was right, roll on article 50, is all i can say.0 -
I do agree that Germany 'starting with a clean sheet' post WW2 could have actually helped them post war - possibly the same for Japan?4kicks wrote:Conventional wisdom is the German treatment of tax write offs for research, coupled with a much cosier relationship between companies, banks and local government (the Lander) are what have driven the undoubted success of the Mittelstand. ( I also personally believe better infrastructure associated with the allies carpet bombing in 1944 followed by the Marshall plan and centrally planned economies by Adenaur, but I may be wrong!). Family ownership definitely helps. I do a bit of work with my old business school on startup mentoring and to my eyes a big in the UK is the focus on tech ventures with "success" being an exit strategy with your app/tech being bought by Google ventures, Facebook or Microsoft. Its of course a generalization but little seems to be on building stuff which as I mentioned before has a much more positive impact on the local community.
Not sure that German tax write offs for R&D etc are any better than the UK - we both have them, just different flavours. Possibly their write offs are more valuable but that is because they have a higher tax rate to start with.
Not sure what you mean by closer relationship with banks and govt - there are pretty good links here from my point of view running a tax and treasury dept - if anything better in the UK than in Germany as we cover the whole of Europe Middle East and Africa.
Stangely for all this success of the 'Mittelstand' I was on a call with our main bankers who pointed out that Germany has dropped down the global competitiveness rankings from 6th to 12th since 2014. Also (anecdotally) our most profitable country is the UK and our biggest loss maker is Germany. So not all rosy in the German garden by any stretch of the imagination."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Interesting economic forecast from one of the big banks - 2016 GDP growth for the UK is forecast to be 1.5% while for the Eurozone it is 1.4%. So even with the impact of BREXIT uncertainty we are still (just) better than the Eurozone on the growth front."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0
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Stevo 666 wrote:Interesting economic forecast from one of the big banks - 2016 GDP growth for the UK is forecast to be 1.5% while for the Eurozone it is 1.4%. So even with the impact of BREXIT uncertainty we are still (just) better than the Eurozone on the growth front.
Did it say what they were forecasting 6 months ago for this/next year0 -
Stevo 666 wrote:Stangely for all this success of the 'Mittelstand' I was on a call with our main bankers who pointed out that Germany has dropped down the global competitiveness rankings from 6th to 12th since 2014. Also (anecdotally) our most profitable country is the UK and our biggest loss maker is Germany. So not all rosy in the German garden by any stretch of the imagination.
The UK got there with a growth in profitability that started in 1973, the irony of the date is not lost.
Not sure how you describe Germany as a loss maker though, balance of payments indicates the UK as a major loss maker, and Germany as pretty profitable, at least in balance sheet terms.0 -
The 2016 forecast pre BREXIT impacts for the UK was 1.9% growth and for the Eurozone the same as above, 1.4%.Surrey Commuter wrote:Stevo 666 wrote:Interesting economic forecast from one of the big banks - 2016 GDP growth for the UK is forecast to be 1.5% while for the Eurozone it is 1.4%. So even with the impact of BREXIT uncertainty we are still (just) better than the Eurozone on the growth front.
Did it say what they were forecasting 6 months ago for this/next year
Sure the UK is down as we all expected but that was expected - it is the comparison with the Eurozone that is relevant."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
I'm talking about my own group's results, hence the anecdotal point.florerider wrote:Not sure how you describe Germany as a loss maker though, balance of payments indicates the UK as a major loss maker, and Germany as pretty profitable, at least in balance sheet terms."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Stevo 666 wrote:
The 2016 forecast pre BREXIT impacts for the UK was 1.9% growth and for the Eurozone the same as above, 1.4%.Surrey Commuter wrote:Stevo 666 wrote:Interesting economic forecast from one of the big banks - 2016 GDP growth for the UK is forecast to be 1.5% while for the Eurozone it is 1.4%. So even with the impact of BREXIT uncertainty we are still (just) better than the Eurozone on the growth front.
Did it say what they were forecasting 6 months ago for this/next year
Sure the UK is down as we all expected but that was expected - it is the comparison with the Eurozone that is relevant.
There are lot of people who did not expect it and are still denying any downturn. If you have a spare moment then the comments on the EXpress/mail are priceless.0 -
2016 is well before Brexit actually occurs, so it is a forecast of how much Brexit has knocked off before we actually leave, not afterwards.
Losing 0.5% in 2016 because the UK will be leaving sometime in the future, not the period the prediction is made for, is a pretty severe downward move.0 -
I think the biggest impact will be from the uncertainty rather than the actual Brexit. I'd be surprised if the impact was only 0.4%, but I'd also be surprised if it had no impact on the Eurozone.0
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On 24th June I was convinced out meant out and we were heading towards WTO terms. Now with the appointment of the unholy trinity of stupidity to negotiate our exit I now think it is 50/50 between staying and Norway style deal.
I reckon TM is sending out the most crazed of the zealots,so when they come back without the goodies everybody else will realise the game is up.0 -
Surrey Commuter wrote:
I reckon TM is sending out the most crazed of the zealots,so when they come back without the goodies everybody else will realise the game is up.
Agree completely. This is absolutely the right move. Assuming the Brexiteers were right all along, they have been unequivocally empowered to deliver the promised land. If they f*ck it up, nobody can argue it was a half arsed job from somebody who wanted Brexit to fail.
An interesting time ahead. Although they're now in a damned if you do, damned if you don't position. No matter what they secure, it won't be the rose tinted vision that many believed they were voting for.0 -
BigBean beat me to it. The uncertainty may well be having a more negative effect than the eventual reality. As I'm sure you know, businesses and markets don't like uncertainty.florerider wrote:2016 is well before Brexit actually occurs, so it is a forecast of how much Brexit has knocked off before we actually leave, not afterwards.
Losing 0.5% in 2016 because the UK will be leaving sometime in the future, not the period the prediction is made for, is a pretty severe downward move."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
I was aware of the negative impact compared to staying in, but was trying to put it into context. Also when you compare it to the impact of the GFC on GDP, this does not look so bad as some people are making out.Surrey Commuter wrote:Stevo 666 wrote:
The 2016 forecast pre BREXIT impacts for the UK was 1.9% growth and for the Eurozone the same as above, 1.4%.Surrey Commuter wrote:Stevo 666 wrote:Interesting economic forecast from one of the big banks - 2016 GDP growth for the UK is forecast to be 1.5% while for the Eurozone it is 1.4%. So even with the impact of BREXIT uncertainty we are still (just) better than the Eurozone on the growth front.
Did it say what they were forecasting 6 months ago for this/next year
Sure the UK is down as we all expected but that was expected - it is the comparison with the Eurozone that is relevant.
There are lot of people who did not expect it and are still denying any downturn. If you have a spare moment then the comments on the EXpress/mail are priceless.
The red top comments are quite amusing..."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Germanys global competitiveness of course has a number of elements to it, including its higher social costs, as well as the lack of a service sector which can be highly profitable in the good days. My issue isnt really about overall competitiveness (its kind of like saying whats the best car?), but the social mix and income distribution which manufacturing enables. The "cosy relationship" is a long standing cross shareholding between banks and key manufacturers enabling long term investments in plant and property, and the Sparkasse are very closely linked with the Landers government , indeed so closely linked that its difficult to even define it as a separate entity.Stevo 666 wrote:
I do agree that Germany 'starting with a clean sheet' post WW2 could have actually helped them post war - possibly the same for Japan?4kicks wrote:Conventional wisdom is the German treatment of tax write offs for research, coupled with a much cosier relationship between companies, banks and local government (the Lander) are what have driven the undoubted success of the Mittelstand. ( I also personally believe better infrastructure associated with the allies carpet bombing in 1944 followed by the Marshall plan and centrally planned economies by Adenaur, but I may be wrong!). Family ownership definitely helps. I do a bit of work with my old business school on startup mentoring and to my eyes a big in the UK is the focus on tech ventures with "success" being an exit strategy with your app/tech being bought by Google ventures, Facebook or Microsoft. Its of course a generalization but little seems to be on building stuff which as I mentioned before has a much more positive impact on the local community.
Not sure that German tax write offs for R&D etc are any better than the UK - we both have them, just different flavours. Possibly their write offs are more valuable but that is because they have a higher tax rate to start with.
Not sure what you mean by closer relationship with banks and govt - there are pretty good links here from my point of view running a tax and treasury dept - if anything better in the UK than in Germany as we cover the whole of Europe Middle East and Africa.
Stangely for all this success of the 'Mittelstand' I was on a call with our main bankers who pointed out that Germany has dropped down the global competitiveness rankings from 6th to 12th since 2014. Also (anecdotally) our most profitable country is the UK and our biggest loss maker is Germany. So not all rosy in the German garden by any stretch of the imagination.
Back in the day I was managing a disastrous sale of a German film production unit which the company who hired me bought as an unwanted orphan from a bigger TV channel business, and it was very clear that the local savings bank, in part state owned, had so much "skin in the game" that it was impossible to do a deal without them, for example it wasnt even possible to factor the debt without them having the option to flip it to equity which wasnt even on the books as a warrant.Fitter....healthier....more productive.....0 -
4kicks wrote:
Germanys global competitiveness of course has a number of elements to it, including its higher social costs, as well as the lack of a service sector which can be highly profitable in the good days. My issue isnt really about overall competitiveness (its kind of like saying whats the best car?), but the social mix and income distribution which manufacturing enables. The "cosy relationship" is a long standing cross shareholding between banks and key manufacturers enabling long term investments in plant and property, and the Sparkasse are very closely linked with the Landers government , indeed so closely linked that its difficult to even define it as a separate entity.Stevo 666 wrote:
I do agree that Germany 'starting with a clean sheet' post WW2 could have actually helped them post war - possibly the same for Japan?4kicks wrote:Conventional wisdom is the German treatment of tax write offs for research, coupled with a much cosier relationship between companies, banks and local government (the Lander) are what have driven the undoubted success of the Mittelstand. ( I also personally believe better infrastructure associated with the allies carpet bombing in 1944 followed by the Marshall plan and centrally planned economies by Adenaur, but I may be wrong!). Family ownership definitely helps. I do a bit of work with my old business school on startup mentoring and to my eyes a big in the UK is the focus on tech ventures with "success" being an exit strategy with your app/tech being bought by Google ventures, Facebook or Microsoft. Its of course a generalization but little seems to be on building stuff which as I mentioned before has a much more positive impact on the local community.
Not sure that German tax write offs for R&D etc are any better than the UK - we both have them, just different flavours. Possibly their write offs are more valuable but that is because they have a higher tax rate to start with.
Not sure what you mean by closer relationship with banks and govt - there are pretty good links here from my point of view running a tax and treasury dept - if anything better in the UK than in Germany as we cover the whole of Europe Middle East and Africa.
Stangely for all this success of the 'Mittelstand' I was on a call with our main bankers who pointed out that Germany has dropped down the global competitiveness rankings from 6th to 12th since 2014. Also (anecdotally) our most profitable country is the UK and our biggest loss maker is Germany. So not all rosy in the German garden by any stretch of the imagination.
Back in the day I was managing a disastrous sale of a German film production unit which the company who hired me bought as an unwanted orphan from a bigger TV channel business, and it was very clear that the local savings bank, in part state owned, had so much "skin in the game" that it was impossible to do a deal without them, for example it wasnt even possible to factor the debt without them having the option to flip it to equity which wasnt even on the books as a warrant.
Are their stats to support your the fact that manufacturing wages are higher per se? Surely it would depend on value added and supply and demands of labour. I understand that many Mittelstand are very specialised and rather than diversifying products looked to widen their markets through exporting0 -
To cheer up mamba a bit:Stevo 666 wrote:
"We are selling"? Not quite, the shareholders are selling. Still this confusion between state and private business...although really a rather good price given it is at a 43% premium over the Friday closing stock price.mamba80 wrote:Post Brexit vote, we are selling ARM to the japanese, is there assurances it ll stay in UK ? or the tech will stay in the UK?
a cheap sale given the sate of the pound too.
i thought after the Cadbury thing, we were supposed to be stopping this sort of sell off? its not as if ARM were going to go bust without inward investment.
You'd better ask ARM or its new owners but it is already a multinational with locations around the world (from Wiki):
"The company has offices and design centres across the world, including San Jose, California, Austin, Texas, Chandler, Arizona and Olympia, Washington in the United States; Bangalore and Noida in India; Trondheim in Norway; Lund in Sweden; Sophia Antipolis in France; Munich in Germany; Yokohama in Japan; China, Taiwan, Slovenia and Hungary."
So not sure what your point is here about 'staying in the UK?
Aside from that, the fact that a Foreign company has invested around £23billion is a UK headquartered company is a great testament to the attractiveness of the UK as a place to do business and for foreign direct investment post BREXIT. Thanks for pointing this out mamba
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36822272
To quote the relevant section:
"The BBC understands that Softbank will commit to doubling the size of ARM's UK workforce over the next five years."
See, not all doom and gloom..."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Also putting BREXIT into perspective is what I've mentioned before - the Italian banking crisis:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/07/16/why-italys-banking-crisis-will-shake-the-eurozone-to-its-core/
http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2016/07/17/if-you-thought-brexit-was-bad-wait-until-the-italian-banks-all-go-bust/#42d8b2642ad4
The Italian domino appears to be wobbling..."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Surrey Commuter wrote:
There are lot of people who did not expect it and are still denying any downturn. If you have a spare moment then the comments on the EXpress/mail are priceless.
However, 1.9% going to down to 1.5% is hardly newsworthy, is it?left the forum March 20230 -
ugo.santalucia wrote:Surrey Commuter wrote:
There are lot of people who did not expect it and are still denying any downturn. If you have a spare moment then the comments on the EXpress/mail are priceless.
However, 1.9% going to down to 1.5% is hardly newsworthy, is it?
If growth was evenly spread then the back half has halved to 0.5%.
Anyway this is the view of an optimist. A poll of forecasts I saw had it dropping from a range of 2-2.5% to 0.1-0.5%.
So it depends on where you start from and whether you are on calendar or fiscal years but the summary is that we have dropped from healthy growth to bumping along the bottom.
Still not really newsworthy but imagine if two months ago Osborne had pulled a policy trigger that resulted in that!!!0
