BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴

shirley_basso

Stevo 666 wrote:

Mr Goo wrote:

Yellow Hammer document is a bureaucratic 'Worst Case' scenario without any mitigation should we leave EU without deal.
Pre take off safety videos on planes are worst case scenarios with mitigation. And we continue to fly on planes.

Very true.

Some people seem to think it is some sort of accurate prediction of the future by a government they usually claim cannot organise a p1ss up in a brewery.

Isn't this incorrect.

Its the base case scenario as per the leaked document which has been retitled for the release.

antonyfromoz

Shirley Basso wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

Mr Goo wrote:

Yellow Hammer document is a bureaucratic 'Worst Case' scenario without any mitigation should we leave EU without deal.
Pre take off safety videos on planes are worst case scenarios with mitigation. And we continue to fly on planes.

Very true.

Some people seem to think it is some sort of accurate prediction of the future by a government they usually claim cannot organise a p1ss up in a brewery.

Isn't this incorrect.

Its the base case scenario as per the leaked document which has been retitled for the release.

That's the point I tried to make earlier - the original report stated it was the base case scenario based on what the experts who were consulted thought would happen. Have they released the briefing documents they gave to the report's contributors prior to them providing the forecasts? That would be an easy way of telling if the report is based on the worst possible situation they could imagine ie the outcome that would be possible if all the preparations had not taken place or somehow failed, rather than the likely outcome.

robert88

It's most encouraging to hear that the latest Prime Minister expects to ram through a Deal in just ten days.

The only hurdles being achieving agreement with EU negotiators, the DUP and securing a majority in the upper and lower Chambers.

As he himself puts it:

"Hulk always escaped, no matter how tightly bound in he seemed to be - and that is the case for this country. We will come out on 31 October and we will get it done."

"The madder Hulk gets, the stronger Hulk gets," he added.

We could have done it years ago.

pblakeney

Robert88 wrote:

It's most encouraging to hear that the latest Prime Minister expects to ram through a Deal in just ten days.

The only hurdles being achieving agreement with EU negotiators, the DUP and securing a majority in the upper and lower Chambers.

As he himself puts it:

"Hulk always escaped, no matter how tightly bound in he seemed to be - and that is the case for this country. We will come out on 31 October and we will get it done."

"The madder Hulk gets, the stronger Hulk gets," he added.

We could have done it years ago.

You missed out the bit about the gamma rays and an experimental bomb.

robert88

It's disappointing to see that students of his former college, far from praising his efforts actively wish to have nothing to do with him. So much so they have launched a petition to stop him ever darkening their doors again.

Who would sign such a thing?

http://chng.it/7rv7nHqY9V

Pross

Robert88 wrote:

It's most encouraging to hear that the latest Prime Minister expects to ram through a Deal in just ten days.

The only hurdles being achieving agreement with EU negotiators, the DUP and securing a majority in the upper and lower Chambers.

As he himself puts it:

"Hulk always escaped, no matter how tightly bound in he seemed to be - and that is the case for this country. We will come out on 31 October and we will get it done."

"The madder Hulk gets, the stronger Hulk gets," he added.

We could have done it years ago.

It's reassuring that he basis Government policy and negotiation on the exploits of comic book characters.

Not sure why he has to appease the DUP, one of the few good things in recent weeks is that they've become pretty much irrelevant and lost their blackmail material. Any deal needs to be acceptable to a chunk of opposition MPs now.

tailwindhome

Pross wrote:

Any deal needs to be acceptable to a chunk of opposition MPs now.

It was always true that the only way to get at deal through parliament was via Labour

morstar

Pross wrote:

Robert88 wrote:

It's most encouraging to hear that the latest Prime Minister expects to ram through a Deal in just ten days.

The only hurdles being achieving agreement with EU negotiators, the DUP and securing a majority in the upper and lower Chambers.

As he himself puts it:

"Hulk always escaped, no matter how tightly bound in he seemed to be - and that is the case for this country. We will come out on 31 October and we will get it done."

"The madder Hulk gets, the stronger Hulk gets," he added.

We could have done it years ago.

It's reassuring that he basis Government policy and negotiation on the exploits of comic book characters.

Not sure why he has to appease the DUP, one of the few good things in recent weeks is that they've become pretty much irrelevant and lost their blackmail material. Any deal needs to be acceptable to a chunk of opposition MPs now.

This DUP marginilisation is, I agree, a good thing. However, the deal...

I have assumed that the TM deal will get re-presented with potentially a bit of surface dressing. Being a pragmatist, I believe this the only sensible way to achieve Brexit. However, where does this leave everybody in parliament, obviously the extremist of no deal and die hard remain won't budge but what about the rest?
My worry is that the deal that was close to being passed in spring may now have less support with the opposition being attracted by an election.
If the deal does get through parliament, does BJ no longer offer the election?

In some ways the opposition are almost as boxed in as BJ. Had they agreed to an election, the Prime Liar rightly could not be trusted, if they agree the deal, do they lose their election? If they don't agree the deal and they then lose the house in an election, no deal becomes increasingly likely.

They really do need to get the deal signed off. If BJ can get some meaningful changes signed off, then fair play to him. I do however, think his fantasy world is an unrealistic as Corbyn's.

The most pleasing thing about the last two months is that British democracy has at least fought back and resisted Trump style politics.

robert88

Pross wrote:

Robert88 wrote:

It's most encouraging to hear that the latest Prime Minister expects to ram through a Deal in just ten days.

The only hurdles being achieving agreement with EU negotiators, the DUP and securing a majority in the upper and lower Chambers.

As he himself puts it:

"Hulk always escaped, no matter how tightly bound in he seemed to be - and that is the case for this country. We will come out on 31 October and we will get it done."

"The madder Hulk gets, the stronger Hulk gets," he added.

We could have done it years ago.

It's reassuring that he basis Government policy and negotiation on the exploits of comic book characters.

Not sure why he has to appease the DUP, one of the few good things in recent weeks is that they've become pretty much irrelevant and lost their blackmail material. Any deal needs to be acceptable to a chunk of opposition MPs now.

I'd never overlook the DUP as a factor, nevertheless. It is still the 'Conservative and Unionist Party':

A party of great vested interests, banded together in a formidable confederation; corruption at home, aggression to cover it up abroad; the trickery of tariff juggles, the tyranny of a party machine; sentiment by the bucketful; patriotism by the imperial pint; the open hand at the public exchequer, the open door at the public-house; dear food for the million, cheap labour for the millionaire.

tailwindhome

There are a small number of Irish columnists who regularly write columns against the Irish position on Brexit and backstop.
Most are contrarians writing nonsense

Dan O Brien however makes consistently solid arguments and is always worth reading

rick_chasey

Rick Chasey wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

bompington wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

Cummings is an election guy isn’t he?

I think it’s best viewing everything they say and highlight through an election campaign lens.

All that front page on the telegraph, which the Indy is second hand reporting on does is reinforce “we really really want this over with” which is the message the Tories are going to campaign on.

It'll take a lot of skill to present “we really really want this over with” but not have the public see impotence

mmmmmmmmmmm straw poll around my desk suggests they have fully bought into this line.

The problem with "just get it over with" isn't that they can't make something happen - they surely can - it's the wilful blindness to the fact that whatever happens, it just goes on.

Sure, but reality does not equal perception.

--
Am reminded of something May's former PR man said when they were doing studies on what lines & policies were cutting through.

They found in their focus group the majority of people would turn off or avoid the news if they saw Brexit was the leader, so all the other stuff was lost.

I think majority of people who don't go out of the way to argue and engange in the debates (i.e. non-forum people) just want people to shut up about it and just see sense in "getting it done and moving on". They don't want to listen, they just want parliament to sort it all out on their behalf, preferably without bothering them.

I think that is entirely the Cummings strategy; focus on those folk, and I think people are too focused on the noise of parliamentary shenanigans and not enough on the election. They have no majority, why would the tories even bother trying to do anything other than call a GE as favourably as possible?

https://twitter.com/yougov/status/11710 ... 34944?s=21

By 52% to 31% Brits say that a no-deal Brexit would not represent a ‘clean break’ from the EU, and it would leave a lot of issues to be sorted out

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... ical-chaos

Tories increase their lead in the polls to 12%.

Campaign is clearly working. The message as per above (we’re trying to do something that the people wanted, but parliament and the EU is thwarting us) is cutting through.

All the constitutional stuff is just noise

rjsterry

Rick Chasey wrote:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/14/tories-extend-poll-lead-to-12-despite-week-of-political-chaos

Tories increase their lead in the polls to 12%.

Campaign is clearly working. The message as per above (we’re trying to do something that the people wanted, but parliament and the EU is thwarting us) is cutting through.

All the constitutional stuff is just noise

Pretty easy to see why with STILL no clear narrative from Labour on their position. By leaving that space it's hardly surprising that Johnson is capitalising on the opportunity.

Stevo_666

Shirley Basso wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

Mr Goo wrote:

Yellow Hammer document is a bureaucratic 'Worst Case' scenario without any mitigation should we leave EU without deal.
Pre take off safety videos on planes are worst case scenarios with mitigation. And we continue to fly on planes.

Very true.

Some people seem to think it is some sort of accurate prediction of the future by a government they usually claim cannot organise a p1ss up in a brewery.

Isn't this incorrect.

Its the base case scenario as per the leaked document which has been retitled for the release.

Don't think so. A feasible worst case scenario is just that. Not sure exactly what you mean by a 'base case'?

tailwindhome

The interesting thing about the polling since Johnson took office (not withstanding the fact that polling is all over the place)

Conservative + Brexit Party + Ukip

Jul 25 > 45%
Sep 10 > 45%

Conservative having taken 5 percentage points off The Brexit Party and UKIP (who are now polling at 0)

Labour + Lib Dem + Green

Jul 25 > 48%
Sep 10 > 47%

Labour were 24% now 25%
Lib Dems were 19% now 18%


https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of- ... d-kingdom/


Conclusions from this - the Leave/Remain split is slightly in favour of remain (more so when we include the SNP 4%)

Both camps are in their silos and noone is moving
Each party is competing in their own camp only.

Neither Labour nor Lib Dem can command a majority from this position and neither is moving significantly on the other.

Conservative need to take more votes from Brexit party to get a majority - they'll be no where close to a majority of the public vote (not that is necessary) BUT their % share will be exceptionally low for a winning party.

No one can predict how votes convert to seats with any certainty.

mr_goo

I see the most inappropriately named political party Lib Dems has decided to make it their policy to reverse Brexit.
That's tantamount to totalitarianism.....4 T words in a row I'm impressed with myself. I'll add another to make 5. Tw4ts.

bompington

Mr Goo wrote:

I see the most inappropriately named political party Lib Dems has decided to make it their policy to reverse Brexit.
That's tantamount to totalitarianism.....4 T words in a row I'm impressed with myself. I'll add another to make 5. Tw4ts.

Perhaps I can try and explain, for the benefit of the hard of thinking.
The libs' position is that they'd rather have a referendum. But both Labour & Tories want an election instead; they both know that an election is an imperfect way of deciding a referendum, but that's the point - they both either worry or know that a ref won't get them what they want, so they hope to get their way by muddling the questions.

So the libs are trying to make an election more like a referendum by offering a clear choice: one vote, in or out.
They have explained this very clearly, but I don't expect that to make any difference to idiots who stopped actually thinking years ago.

mr_goo

bompington wrote:

Mr Goo wrote:

I see the most inappropriately named political party Lib Dems has decided to make it their policy to reverse Brexit.
That's tantamount to totalitarianism.....4 T words in a row I'm impressed with myself. I'll add another to make 5. Tw4ts.

Perhaps I can try and explain, for the benefit of the hard of thinking.
The libs' position is that they'd rather have a referendum. But both Labour & Tories want an election instead; they both know that an election is an imperfect way of deciding a referendum, but that's the point - they both either worry or know that a ref won't get them what they want, so they hope to get their way by muddling the questions.

So the libs are trying to make an election more like a referendum by offering a clear choice: one vote, in or out.
They have explained this very clearly, but I don't expect that to make any difference to idiots who stopped actually thinking years ago.

Read the news. It seems theyre not even going back to the public for a 2nd referendum.

imposter2.0

Mr Goo wrote:

I see the most inappropriately named political party Lib Dems has decided to make it their policy to reverse Brexit.
That's tantamount to totalitarianism.....4 T words in a row I'm impressed with myself. I'll add another to make 5. Tw4ts.

The only 'tw4ts' are those who think it's in any way totalitarian. They are stating their intentions for if or when they are (democratically) elected. If you don't like the idea of it, then simply don't vote for them.

tailwindhome

Mr Goo wrote:

Read the news. It seems theyre not even going back to the public for a 2nd referendum.

If they were to win a majority at the next election they'd have a clear mandate for their policy
No?

morstar

Mr Goo wrote:

bompington wrote:

Mr Goo wrote:

I see the most inappropriately named political party Lib Dems has decided to make it their policy to reverse Brexit.
That's tantamount to totalitarianism.....4 T words in a row I'm impressed with myself. I'll add another to make 5. Tw4ts.

Perhaps I can try and explain, for the benefit of the hard of thinking.
The libs' position is that they'd rather have a referendum. But both Labour & Tories want an election instead; they both know that an election is an imperfect way of deciding a referendum, but that's the point - they both either worry or know that a ref won't get them what they want, so they hope to get their way by muddling the questions.

So the libs are trying to make an election more like a referendum by offering a clear choice: one vote, in or out.
They have explained this very clearly, but I don't expect that to make any difference to idiots who stopped actually thinking years ago.

Read the news. It seems theyre not even going back to the public for a 2nd referendum.

Which is irrelevant to your criticism of their position...
As we haven't left yet, it is perfectly reasonable for a party that has always been pro EU to continue to campaign to remain in the EU. That is democracy. Democracy isn't just accepting defeat and remaining silent forever more. The public will judge their position at the ballot box. For various reasons, you can rest easy that they are extremely unlikely to have a majority government so what are you so worried about?
You can't expect silence from dissenting voices as it is exactly those that have delivered Brexit in the first instance.

bompington

Mr Goo wrote:

bompington wrote:

Mr Goo wrote:

I see the most inappropriately named political party Lib Dems has decided to make it their policy to reverse Brexit.
That's tantamount to totalitarianism.....4 T words in a row I'm impressed with myself. I'll add another to make 5. Tw4ts.

Perhaps I can try and explain, for the benefit of the hard of thinking.
The libs' position is that they'd rather have a referendum. But both Labour & Tories want an election instead; they both know that an election is an imperfect way of deciding a referendum, but that's the point - they both either worry or know that a ref won't get them what they want, so they hope to get their way by muddling the questions.

So the libs are trying to make an election more like a referendum by offering a clear choice: one vote, in or out.
They have explained this very clearly, but I don't expect that to make any difference to idiots who stopped actually thinking years ago.

Read the news. It seems theyre not even going back to the public for a 2nd referendum.

I somehow knew I was wasting my time.

Lagrange

TailWindHome wrote:

Most are contrarians writing nonsense


Then they will have user names for this forum.

coopster_the_1st

Mr Goo wrote:

I see the most inappropriately named political party Lib Dems has decided to make it their policy to reverse Brexit.
That's tantamount to totalitarianism.....4 T words in a row I'm impressed with myself. I'll add another to make 5. Tw4ts.

You know a party is not to be trusted when even the latest MP to defect to them nicknames them the Fib Dems

Fortunately they have less chance of winning a majority than The Brexit Party which pleases me as it will cheese off most of the losers on this forum

rick_chasey

Stevo 666 wrote:

Shirley Basso wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

Mr Goo wrote:

Yellow Hammer document is a bureaucratic 'Worst Case' scenario without any mitigation should we leave EU without deal.
Pre take off safety videos on planes are worst case scenarios with mitigation. And we continue to fly on planes.

Very true.

Some people seem to think it is some sort of accurate prediction of the future by a government they usually claim cannot organise a p1ss up in a brewery.

Isn't this incorrect.

Its the base case scenario as per the leaked document which has been retitled for the release.

Don't think so. A feasible worst case scenario is just that. Not sure exactly what you mean by a 'base case'?

I thought it got renamed to worst case to make it more palatable?

The point that we all know is that the people who are actually looking at the impacts in the civil service all conclude it’s net shades of bad.

It’s disappointing that trust in the civil service was that fickle.

mr_goo

Coopster the 1st wrote:

Mr Goo wrote:

I see the most inappropriately named political party Lib Dems has decided to make it their policy to reverse Brexit.
That's tantamount to totalitarianism.....4 T words in a row I'm impressed with myself. I'll add another to make 5. Tw4ts.

You know a party is not to be trusted when even the latest MP to defect to them nicknames them the Fib Dems

Fortunately they have less chance of winning a majority than The Brexit Party which pleases me as it will cheese off most of the losers on this forum

I believe you and I are the only two on the whole forum that are in favour of Brexit.
Democracy is out the window now. Either with MPs deliberately going against the referendum and now with BoJo trying to gag parliament. It's a fuffin mess.

I'd like to hear the views of the remoaners on here about Poland and Hungary not observing one of the main tenants of the EU. Namely the rule of law and media not being interfered with by government. Both have right wing populist governments which gag the media and run the courts. The EU have tried to invoke Article 7 but Poland and Hungary just thumb their noses at Brussels.

Stevo_666

Rick Chasey wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

Shirley Basso wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

Mr Goo wrote:

Yellow Hammer document is a bureaucratic 'Worst Case' scenario without any mitigation should we leave EU without deal.
Pre take off safety videos on planes are worst case scenarios with mitigation. And we continue to fly on planes.

Very true.

Some people seem to think it is some sort of accurate prediction of the future by a government they usually claim cannot organise a p1ss up in a brewery.

Isn't this incorrect.

Its the base case scenario as per the leaked document which has been retitled for the release.

Don't think so. A feasible worst case scenario is just that. Not sure exactly what you mean by a 'base case'?

I thought it got renamed to worst case to make it more palatable?

The point that we all know is that the people who are actually looking at the impacts in the civil service all conclude it’s net shades of bad.

It’s disappointing that trust in the civil service was that fickle.

No idea. Who is saying it was renamed?

In any event and as mentioned above, reasonable worst case scenario planning is a pretty standard approach. We do it.

tailwindhome

Have the mitigation plans for each risk been published?

pblakeney

.
.
.

Pross

Mr Goo wrote:

Coopster the 1st wrote:

Mr Goo wrote:

I see the most inappropriately named political party Lib Dems has decided to make it their policy to reverse Brexit.
That's tantamount to totalitarianism.....4 T words in a row I'm impressed with myself. I'll add another to make 5. Tw4ts.

You know a party is not to be trusted when even the latest MP to defect to them nicknames them the Fib Dems

Fortunately they have less chance of winning a majority than The Brexit Party which pleases me as it will cheese off most of the losers on this forum

I believe you and I are the only two on the whole forum that are in favour of Brexit.
Democracy is out the window now. Either with MPs deliberately going against the referendum and now with BoJo trying to gag parliament. It's a fuffin mess.

I'd like to hear the views of the remoaners on here about Poland and Hungary not observing one of the main tenants of the EU. Namely the rule of law and media not being interfered with by government. Both have right wing populist governments which gag the media and run the courts. The EU have tried to invoke Article 7 but Poland and Hungary just thumb their noses at Brussels.

You really are struggling to understand democracy aren't you? If a party clearly states their policy is to cancel Article 50 and they subsequently win a majority at a General Election then they have won a mandate to cancel Article 50. It trumps the referendum as a) it will be more recent and b) an election is binding, the referendum was advisory. It is as equally clear this is not undemocratic and it is that the Lib Dems won't be in a position to deliver their policy.

As for your second point you seem to be completely arguing against the favourite Brexiteer reason for leaving i.e. that the authoritarian EU force laws on people that they don't want, your example shows that if a country really wants to do their own they can just 'thumb their noses' at the EU. Both can't be true so which is it?

coopster_the_1st

Mr Goo wrote:

Coopster the 1st wrote:

Mr Goo wrote:

I see the most inappropriately named political party Lib Dems has decided to make it their policy to reverse Brexit.
That's tantamount to totalitarianism.....4 T words in a row I'm impressed with myself. I'll add another to make 5. Tw4ts.

You know a party is not to be trusted when even the latest MP to defect to them nicknames them the Fib Dems

Fortunately they have less chance of winning a majority than The Brexit Party which pleases me as it will cheese off most of the losers on this forum

I believe you and I are the only two on the whole forum that are in favour of Brexit.
Democracy is out the window now. Either with MPs deliberately going against the referendum and now with BoJo trying to gag parliament. It's a fuffin mess.

There are a few others, but Brexit has just reconfirmed what tw@ts the vast majority of the cycling community are and the reason I stepped back from its culture in 2014/2015.

Boris tried his approach to Brexit but it was rejected by Parliament. After the govt were unable to govern he showed leadership and rightly wanted to refer it to the country in an election to get the UK's future direction. There has been only one side, the remoaners, that have been scared of going back to the people via an election.

The electorate know this and judgement on MP's will be served when we get our chance.