BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴

bompington

rjsterry wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

Fintan O Toole wrote:

The Times does fine work in tracking down the story of the Englishman Billy Hampton, who has left £1.5 million to Sinn Féin in his will because he was in a rage against the British government. It reports that he had previously sliced off his own penis. Two things seem remarkable. The story only makes page 20 — and quite rightly since it is far down the list of bizarre political developments, way behind the antics at Westminster. Plus, cutting off your penis and giving all your money to the most Anglophobic party you can think of is currently only the second most extreme form of self-harm in English politics, some distance behind a no-deal Brexit.

Didn't you post this yesterday?

No, I did. But it's worth posting again ;-)

tailwindhome

bompington wrote:

No, I did. But it's worth posting again ;-)

oops
missed that.

rick_chasey

BoJo in Doncaster today.

Have to say, I cannot see the advantage in an Eton educated Tory going to Doncaster.

I understand that it's a key town for Brexit support, but though Brexit may be have become a religion in parts of Doncaster, the faith of "ANYONE BUT THE F*CKING TORIES* has been around a hell of a lot longer, and will still usurp any other politics round there.

Brexit party, fine, Tories, not a hope in hell.

Not so long ago I remember witnessing John Prescott being greeted like he was the pope around there.

Pross

Rick Chasey wrote:

BoJo in Doncaster today.

Have to say, I cannot see the advantage in an Eton educated Tory going to Doncaster.

I understand that it's a key town for Brexit support, but though Brexit may be have become a religion in parts of Doncaster, the faith of "ANYONE BUT THE F*CKING TORIES* has been around a hell of a lot longer, and will still usurp any other politics round there.

Brexit party, fine, Tories, not a hope in hell.

It's the town that spawned Clarkson, I suspect he approves of Boris.

robert88

To be fair ISTR even Clarkson thinks Brexit is bad news.

sungod

Robert88 wrote:

To be fair ISTR even Clarkson thinks Brexit is bad news.

yep, he's very much a remainer

https://www.facebook.com/LBC/videos/jer ... 144734135/

coopster_the_1st

No comment in this echo chamber that Eurozone ecomony is going down the plughole. A strong and buoyant economy would not be lowering its already negative bank deposit rate and restarting QE. Smells of desperate measures to me.

And just to cheer things up further, Germany is likely to be in recession when it reports its Q3 numbers.

elbowloh

Coopster the 1st wrote:

No comment in this echo chamber that Eurozone ecomony is going down the plughole. A strong and buoyant economy would not be lowering its already negative bank deposit rate and restarting QE. Smells of desperate measures to me.

And just to cheer things up further, Germany is likely to be in recession when it reports its Q3 numbers.

Assuming that's true, they are and will be (even if we leave) our biggest trading partner, so we'd be dragged down with them either way right? Except that in the event of us leaving we'd be spending the next 5-10 years trying to negotiate trading deals around the world from a position of weakness and desperation.

haydenm

Also, we aren't in (or leaving) the eurozone so I'm not really sure why a remainer would try to cover that news up?

cycleclinic

the thing is with all of this. no deal will be damaging for sure but it also the logical out come of what the vote to leave the EU. alsot was promised but that was mutally contradictory to leaving the customs union, single market as the leavers say was agreed at the time. I dont think it was agreed. Cameron and a few lead leaver said that but that not an agreement. However this statement has been repeated so many time it has become the truth so no deal is the logical outcome. Given the opposition cant agree what they should do beyond pin bo jo down in asking for an extension I am not sure there is any other option to no deal at the moment. also the no dealers dont listen to logic. Cooper the 1st will say if we are free from the EU we can trade with the rest of the world so if the EU economy goes into recession we will be fine outside the EU. They have an answer for eveything and If we dont let them burn the house down they will burn it down anway. That the position we are in so let them have there way. It will hurt and we wont get over it but so be it. the no dealers will only understand there folly once the UK is England and Wales and we cant maintain our nuclear deterant due to no base for the subs, we have lost our UN security council seat and have no trade deal with the EU because we cant agree to the conditions of keeping the irish boarder open and the hope for trade deals with the rest of the world turn out as a expected to be one side and not worth it. Once everything is lost maybe just maybe they will understand. until then they will continue to be a very disruptive force in UK poltics and they will break deomcracy to get there way. I am resigned to the fact my Brisith idenity is stolen from me. The SNP want to scotland out and it looks like they will get there way in the end and being british means there is a great britain and without scotland it no longer exists. So we have to be english instead. FFS. Some us truely have no say. I'd like to think voting lid dem makes a difference but in south suffolk ward it wont. Our MP has voted with the goverment in every vote since he was elected in 2015. He had a 6000 majority in 2017 over labour. This area is tory to the core and if the brexit party win its no deal. So from south suffolk no deal is the only outcome and there is nothing I can do about it.

If after the next election its a hung parliament do we really see one brexit outcome getting a majoirty? In which case no deal is only postponed. You can lead a horse to water but you cant make it drink.

kingstongraham

thecycleclinic wrote:

If we dont let them burn the house down they will burn it down anway. That the position we are in so let them have there way. It will hurt and we wont get over it but so be it.

If you think it's burning down the house, don't give them the matches just because you're tired of it.

cruff

KingstonGraham wrote:

thecycleclinic wrote:

If we dont let them burn the house down they will burn it down anway. That the position we are in so let them have there way. It will hurt and we wont get over it but so be it.

If you think it's burning down the house, don't give them the matches just because you're tired of it.

In addition, that's not what will happen. They will blame the EU for it. Wars get started over things like this. It needs to be stopped - and I don't mean 'no deal', I mean Brexit. It's the stupidest f***ing idea in history, for so many reasons. Allowing f***wits to lead the country into economic suicide simply to 'teach then a lesson' is as insane as doing it in the first place.

bobmcstuff

Coopster the 1st wrote:

No comment in this echo chamber that Eurozone ecomony is going down the plughole. A strong and buoyant economy would not be lowering its already negative bank deposit rate and restarting QE. Smells of desperate measures to me.

And just to cheer things up further, Germany is likely to be in recession when it reports its Q3 numbers.

We're in a similar boat, so it's not much to brag about.

tailwindhome

Rick Chasey wrote:

BoJo in Doncaster today.

Have to say, I cannot see the advantage in an Eton educated Tory going to Doncaster.

I understand that it's a key town for Brexit support, but though Brexit may be have become a religion in parts of Doncaster, the faith of "ANYONE BUT THE F*CKING TORIES* has been around a hell of a lot longer, and will still usurp any other politics round there.

Brexit party, fine, Tories, not a hope in hell.

Not so long ago I remember witnessing John Prescott being greeted like he was the pope around there.

It isn't going well so far.

tailwindhome

Stevo 666 wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

By the way, Rosamund Urwin who reported the leaked version in August, has tweeted that the redacted section is that ND will render UK refined petrol uncompetitive for export. The plan for 0% tariff on imports will mean that they undercut UK refineries. In other words UK refineries will go the way of sheep farmers.

Exactly like a couple of days of snow.

This has got lost a few pages back given the pace of posting on here, but clearly in a No Deal situation, the UK could if it wanted selectively impose tariffs on imports of certain products or classes of products to protect things like refineries. Provided it treats all such products equally regardless of source, should not be in breach of WTO regs etc.

Have tariff schedules (if that is the right word) been published yet?

cycleclinic

I just dont see a way out at the moment. Yes it a stupid thing and yes it can lead somewhere truely dark but stopping it is not straight forward either and has its risks too.

The fundemental problem is there are too many leavers who think democracy is about just winning an election and they have there way. politics has never been about that. Poltics has always been the great balancing act. If the leavers cant get there way through a vote history show demogogues get it another way and it seems many will be willing to follow.

If we disgree about what democracy means, stopping brexit does not resolve the problem, it only hightens it. That the point I am making.

Brexit is protyaed a simple solution to our problem, it no solution at all. Stopping brexit is protrayed as an equally simple solution and it is by far not the case.

cycleclinic

TailWindHome wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

By the way, Rosamund Urwin who reported the leaked version in August, has tweeted that the redacted section is that ND will render UK refined petrol uncompetitive for export. The plan for 0% tariff on imports will mean that they undercut UK refineries. In other words UK refineries will go the way of sheep farmers.

Exactly like a couple of days of snow.

This has got lost a few pages back given the pace of posting on here, but clearly in a No Deal situation, the UK could if it wanted selectively impose tariffs on imports of certain products or classes of products to protect things like refineries. Provided it treats all such products equally regardless of source, should not be in breach of WTO regs etc.

Have tariff schedules (if that is the right word) been published yet?

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/check-tempo ... th-no-deal

It not complete though well I dont htink it is. export rate I resume are the same as import rates.

Stevo_666

elbowloh wrote:

Coopster the 1st wrote:

No comment in this echo chamber that Eurozone ecomony is going down the plughole. A strong and buoyant economy would not be lowering its already negative bank deposit rate and restarting QE. Smells of desperate measures to me.

And just to cheer things up further, Germany is likely to be in recession when it reports its Q3 numbers.

Assuming that's true, they are and will be (even if we leave) our biggest trading partner, so we'd be dragged down with them either way right? Except that in the event of us leaving we'd be spending the next 5-10 years trying to negotiate trading deals around the world from a position of weakness and desperation.

Whenever I have mentioned the Eurozone economy not performing well, this is the stock answer that comes back.

True, it won't be positive for us, but an EU recession won't be as as bad for us as it will be for the Eurozone itself.

Also there's not a lot we can do about it, the issues are largely of their own making.

Stevo_666

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

Robert88 wrote:

Isn't refining stuff rather important to our gdp? Not a good idea to do all this protective stuff over.

That is why we would do it.

Rates and contribution to the economy here: if we impose 4.7% then it's a level playing field. If so, they could cut petrol excise duty to keep a lid on the price in the UK.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49425202
The govt said they would change tariffs if needed.

I thought the issue was that tariffs would stop us from exporting refined oil which would make our refineries uneconomic. How will adding tariffs to imports help?

Frankly it is a very small cost of Brexiting.

It really is bizarre the industries that the great british public chose to give a sh1t about. Is it a primeval thing that makes people care more about primary industries?

On here people seem to care about whatever industry is reported as being negatively affected by Brexit so they can post it on here.

Stevo_666

Mr Goo wrote:

Yellow Hammer document is a bureaucratic 'Worst Case' scenario without any mitigation should we leave EU without deal.
Pre take off safety videos on planes are worst case scenarios with mitigation. And we continue to fly on planes.

Very true.

Some people seem to think it is some sort of accurate prediction of the future by a government they usually claim cannot organise a p1ss up in a brewery.

rick_chasey

Well no one really sheds a tear when Merrills ship out their trading desk to Paris - they think good riddance.

I mean the cost is about half a mill per desk all in, but who cares right?

mr_goo

Rick Chasey wrote:

Well no one really sheds a tear when Merrills ship out their trading desk to Paris - they think good riddance.

Too true. Has the Goldman Sachs London office shipped out too?

rick_chasey

Mr Goo wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

Well no one really sheds a tear when Merrills ship out their trading desk to Paris - they think good riddance.

Too true. Has the Goldman Sachs London office shipped out too?

Bits. Not the whole lot.

antonyfromoz

TheBigBean wrote:

KingstonGraham wrote:

TheBigBean wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

By the way, Rosamund Urwin who reported the leaked version in August, has tweeted that the redacted section is that ND will render UK refined petrol uncompetitive for export. The plan for 0% tariff on imports will mean that they undercut UK refineries. In other words UK refineries will go the way of sheep farmers.

Exactly like a couple of days of snow.

This has got lost a few pages back given the pace of posting on here, but clearly in a No Deal situation, the UK could if it wanted selectively impose tariffs on imports of certain products or classes of products to protect things like refineries. Provided it treats all such products equally regardless of source, should not be in breach of WTO regs etc.

I'm sure it could. The point (including the 0% tariff on imports) was part of the government's document, not my argument.

Is everyone pro petrol now? Life outside the EU will make subsidising renewables much easier.

I've a feeling this may be another area where this forum might not be a 100% representative sample of the entire population. I'm all for increased petrol prices.

My suspicion is that we may be in a minority on this point and that the forum is actually more representative. There's usually outcry whenever petrol prices increase.

It seems to me that the idea of government subsidies for industry goes against the low tax, small govenment and market obsessed ideology of this goverment so I cannot imagine that this cabinet of Tories would be subsidising renewables once we left the EU. In fact, the government is apparently refusing to commit to the agreement they signed earlier on renewables anyway: https://www.climatechangenews.com/2018/ ... ts-brexit/.

antonyfromoz

Stevo 666 wrote:

Mr Goo wrote:

Yellow Hammer document is a bureaucratic 'Worst Case' scenario without any mitigation should we leave EU without deal.
Pre take off safety videos on planes are worst case scenarios with mitigation. And we continue to fly on planes.

Very true.

Some people seem to think it is some sort of accurate prediction of the future by a government they usually claim cannot organise a p1ss up in a brewery.

As far as I can see, Project Yellow Hammer is not a government prediction, it was compiled by people working in these areas ie the Dr who was denounced and insulted by that absolute dick, Rees Moggs. If this is the worst case scenario then where is the governments most likely scenario, also compiled by seeking the input of experts inthe field, and why has this not been released to reassure the population that they have nothing to worry about? As for that ridiculous comment about pre take off safety videos on planes - thousands of planes take off and land each day and this has happened for many, many years. The odds of being involved in a plane crash when flying at one in 11 million, so the odds of being in a position where you will need to use that life jacket or assume the brace position are remote to say the least. The liklihood that we will leave the Eu with no deal is huge at this point - especially as it is apparently the preferred option for many in government - so the liklihood that the situations outlined in the Yellow Hammer report are also much more certain. Stevo, you are certainly an expert in the areas of confirmation bias you speak about so often...

john80

antonyfromoz wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

Mr Goo wrote:

Yellow Hammer document is a bureaucratic 'Worst Case' scenario without any mitigation should we leave EU without deal.
Pre take off safety videos on planes are worst case scenarios with mitigation. And we continue to fly on planes.

Very true.

Some people seem to think it is some sort of accurate prediction of the future by a government they usually claim cannot organise a p1ss up in a brewery.

As far as I can see, Project Yellow Hammer is not a government prediction, it was compiled by people working in these areas ie the Dr who was denounced and insulted by that absolute dick, Rees Moggs. If this is the worst case scenario then where is the governments most likely scenario, also compiled by seeking the input of experts inthe field, and why has this not been released to reassure the population that they have nothing to worry about? As for that ridiculous comment about pre take off safety videos on planes - thousands of planes take off and land each day and this has happened for many, many years. The odds of being involved in a plane crash when flying at one in 11 million, so the odds of being in a position where you will need to use that life jacket or assume the brace position are remote to say the least. The liklihood that we will leave the Eu with no deal is huge at this point - especially as it is apparently the preferred option for many in government - so the liklihood that the situations outlined in the Yellow Hammer report are also much more certain. Stevo, you are certainly an expert in the areas of confirmation bias you speak about so often...

The problem is that given a country cant impose a trade agreement then you can only look at the worst case which presumably is yellow hammer. The eu will look at the uk and eu economy in the event of a hard brexit and both sides will look to negotiate to alleviate the worst effects in tbe short term. This is almost impossible to predict.

Stevo_666

antonyfromoz wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

Mr Goo wrote:

Yellow Hammer document is a bureaucratic 'Worst Case' scenario without any mitigation should we leave EU without deal.
Pre take off safety videos on planes are worst case scenarios with mitigation. And we continue to fly on planes.

Very true.

Some people seem to think it is some sort of accurate prediction of the future by a government they usually claim cannot organise a p1ss up in a brewery.

As far as I can see, Project Yellow Hammer is not a government prediction, it was compiled by people working in these areas ie the Dr who was denounced and insulted by that absolute dick, Rees Moggs. If this is the worst case scenario then where is the governments most likely scenario, also compiled by seeking the input of experts inthe field, and why has this not been released to reassure the population that they have nothing to worry about? As for that ridiculous comment about pre take off safety videos on planes - thousands of planes take off and land each day and this has happened for many, many years. The odds of being involved in a plane crash when flying at one in 11 million, so the odds of being in a position where you will need to use that life jacket or assume the brace position are remote to say the least. The liklihood that we will leave the Eu with no deal is huge at this point - especially as it is apparently the preferred option for many in government - so the liklihood that the situations outlined in the Yellow Hammer report are also much more certain. Stevo, you are certainly an expert in the areas of confirmation bias you speak about so often...

So you'll be able to tell me what my position is on the expected impact of a no deal brexit then? As I haven't set it out above, I'm guessing you're a mind reader...

antonyfromoz

john80 wrote:

antonyfromoz wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

Mr Goo wrote:

Yellow Hammer document is a bureaucratic 'Worst Case' scenario without any mitigation should we leave EU without deal.
Pre take off safety videos on planes are worst case scenarios with mitigation. And we continue to fly on planes.

Very true.

Some people seem to think it is some sort of accurate prediction of the future by a government they usually claim cannot organise a p1ss up in a brewery.

As far as I can see, Project Yellow Hammer is not a government prediction, it was compiled by people working in these areas ie the Dr who was denounced and insulted by that absolute dick, Rees Moggs. If this is the worst case scenario then where is the governments most likely scenario, also compiled by seeking the input of experts inthe field, and why has this not been released to reassure the population that they have nothing to worry about? As for that ridiculous comment about pre take off safety videos on planes - thousands of planes take off and land each day and this has happened for many, many years. The odds of being involved in a plane crash when flying at one in 11 million, so the odds of being in a position where you will need to use that life jacket or assume the brace position are remote to say the least. The liklihood that we will leave the Eu with no deal is huge at this point - especially as it is apparently the preferred option for many in government - so the liklihood that the situations outlined in the Yellow Hammer report are also much more certain. Stevo, you are certainly an expert in the areas of confirmation bias you speak about so often...

The problem is that given a country cant impose a trade agreement then you can only look at the worst case which presumably is yellow hammer. The eu will look at the uk and eu economy in the event of a hard brexit and both sides will look to negotiate to alleviate the worst effects in tbe short term. This is almost impossible to predict.

Which presumably means that Yellow Hammer is not really a worst case scenario, it is a realistic assessment prepared by experts of the outcome of a no deal Brexit unless the EU decides to negotiate to mitigate the results - which might happen but which does not seem very likely at the moment - either due to feelings of pity on us or because there are commercial benefits for doing so to their markets. These benefits would need to be more important than having the UK as an example of what happens to countries that leave the EU and I have no doubt that there would be a need to have paid up our agreed financial obligations and fixed the Irish border issue too. Then again, it seems to me that if we could find a way to do both of these things we wouldn't be leaving without an agreement anyway...

antonyfromoz

Stevo 666 wrote:

antonyfromoz wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

Mr Goo wrote:

Yellow Hammer document is a bureaucratic 'Worst Case' scenario without any mitigation should we leave EU without deal.
Pre take off safety videos on planes are worst case scenarios with mitigation. And we continue to fly on planes.

Very true.

Some people seem to think it is some sort of accurate prediction of the future by a government they usually claim cannot organise a p1ss up in a brewery.

As far as I can see, Project Yellow Hammer is not a government prediction, it was compiled by people working in these areas ie the Dr who was denounced and insulted by that absolute dick, Rees Moggs. If this is the worst case scenario then where is the governments most likely scenario, also compiled by seeking the input of experts inthe field, and why has this not been released to reassure the population that they have nothing to worry about? As for that ridiculous comment about pre take off safety videos on planes - thousands of planes take off and land each day and this has happened for many, many years. The odds of being involved in a plane crash when flying at one in 11 million, so the odds of being in a position where you will need to use that life jacket or assume the brace position are remote to say the least. The liklihood that we will leave the Eu with no deal is huge at this point - especially as it is apparently the preferred option for many in government - so the liklihood that the situations outlined in the Yellow Hammer report are also much more certain. Stevo, you are certainly an expert in the areas of confirmation bias you speak about so often...

So you'll be able to tell me what my position is on the expected impact of a no deal brexit then? As I haven't set it out above, I'm guessing you're a mind reader...

Stevo - apologies about the confirmation bias comment - I thought you had mentioned this in another thread but I was 100% mistaken! The remainder of my reply will now be deleted as my understanding is that you were referring to this part of my post when you mentioned me being a mind reader and being able to state your position on the impact of a no deal brexit.

Stevo_666

Bottom line is, who knows?

My point was simply that feasible worst case scenario planning is pretty common approach in business, government and elsewhere. That scenario could happen, but doesn't necessarily mean that it will.