BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴

robert88

Isn't refining stuff rather important to our gdp? Not a good idea to do all this protective stuff over.

rjsterry

Stevo 666 wrote:

bompington wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

By the way, Rosamund Urwin who reported the leaked version in August, has tweeted that the redacted section is that ND will render UK refined petrol uncompetitive for export. The plan for 0% tariff on imports will mean that they undercut UK refineries. In other words UK refineries will go the way of sheep farmers.

Exactly like a couple of days of snow.

This has got lost a few pages back given the pace of posting on here, but clearly in a No Deal situation, the UK could if it wanted selectively impose tariffs on imports of certain products or classes of products to protect things like refineries. Provided it treats all such products equally regardless of source, should not be in breach of WTO regs etc.

British fuel for British cars, what's not to like?
Apart from the fact that the refineries will lose all their export income, so they'll close down.

Relevant part that I was referring to is highlighted. We can always match any EU tariffs on our exports with the same level of tariff on he same product/product class that is imported. Then it's a question of who imports or exports more of the stuff.

We can, but the stated plan is to set them at zero, presumably to avoid outrage at petrol stations. Why anyone would be worried about pushing up petrol prices, but happy to endorse the much bigger impact of leaving the EU is another question, but I have long since stopped expecting things to make sense.

morstar

Stevo 666 wrote:

bompington wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

By the way, Rosamund Urwin who reported the leaked version in August, has tweeted that the redacted section is that ND will render UK refined petrol uncompetitive for export. The plan for 0% tariff on imports will mean that they undercut UK refineries. In other words UK refineries will go the way of sheep farmers.

Exactly like a couple of days of snow.

This has got lost a few pages back given the pace of posting on here, but clearly in a No Deal situation, the UK could if it wanted selectively impose tariffs on imports of certain products or classes of products to protect things like refineries. Provided it treats all such products equally regardless of source, should not be in breach of WTO regs etc.

British fuel for British cars, what's not to like?
Apart from the fact that the refineries will lose all their export income, so they'll close down.

Relevant part that I was referring to is highlighted. We can always match any EU tariffs on our exports with the same level of tariff on he same product/product class that is imported. Then it's a question of who imports or exports more of the stuff.

Not my area of expertise but I think you've missed some key details.
Currently we have no tariffs between ourselves and Europe but do with ROW. Therefore exporting fuel to Europe works because it is tariff free whereas from gulf it isn't.
When EU becomes part of ROW, we now either have tariffs with everybody or nobody.
At this point, our fuel is overpriced as our cost of production is higher than ROW.
All a tariff can do is the British petrol for British people thing already suggested.
No tariff wipes out our industry, a tariff makes our fuel even more uncompetitive.


https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... allowances

Stevo_666

Robert88 wrote:

Isn't refining stuff rather important to our gdp? Not a good idea to do all this protective stuff over.

That is why we would do it.

Rates and contribution to the economy here: if we impose 4.7% then it's a level playing field. If so, they could cut petrol excise duty to keep a lid on the price in the UK.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49425202
The govt said they would change tariffs if needed.

Stevo_666

morstar wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

bompington wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

By the way, Rosamund Urwin who reported the leaked version in August, has tweeted that the redacted section is that ND will render UK refined petrol uncompetitive for export. The plan for 0% tariff on imports will mean that they undercut UK refineries. In other words UK refineries will go the way of sheep farmers.

Exactly like a couple of days of snow.

This has got lost a few pages back given the pace of posting on here, but clearly in a No Deal situation, the UK could if it wanted selectively impose tariffs on imports of certain products or classes of products to protect things like refineries. Provided it treats all such products equally regardless of source, should not be in breach of WTO regs etc.

British fuel for British cars, what's not to like?
Apart from the fact that the refineries will lose all their export income, so they'll close down.

Relevant part that I was referring to is highlighted. We can always match any EU tariffs on our exports with the same level of tariff on he same product/product class that is imported. Then it's a question of who imports or exports more of the stuff.

Not my area of expertise but I think you've missed some key details.
Currently we have no tariffs between ourselves and Europe but do with ROW. Therefore exporting fuel to Europe works because it is tariff free whereas from gulf it isn't.
When EU becomes part of ROW, we now either have tariffs with everybody or nobody.
At this point, our fuel is overpriced as our cost of production is higher than ROW.
All a tariff can do is the British petrol for British people thing already suggested.
No tariff wipes out our industry, a tariff makes our fuel even more uncompetitive.


https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... allowances

See my post above.

rjsterry

Stevo 666 wrote:

Robert88 wrote:

Isn't refining stuff rather important to our gdp? Not a good idea to do all this protective stuff over.

That is why we would do it.

Rates and contribution to the economy here: if we impose 4.7% then it's a level playing field. If so, they could cut petrol excise duty to keep a lid on the price in the UK.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49425202
The govt said they would change tariffs if needed.

That makes more sense.

drhaggis

TheBigBean wrote:

If the UK is to be net zero by 2050 (as per legislation) it is highly likely to require subsidies.

Surely net zero is feasible if we nuke the entire economy? Maybe not the best way to do it, though...

mr_goo

Yellow Hammer document is a bureaucratic 'Worst Case' scenario without any mitigation should we leave EU without deal.
Pre take off safety videos on planes are worst case scenarios with mitigation. And we continue to fly on planes.

orraloon

Mr Goo wrote:

...And we continue to fly on planes.

We fly on planes because the pilots are trained, competent, are continually tested and assessed, know what they are doing, have specific detailed flight plans in place, and actually want to get to the destination in one piece no question.

Now I look at de Pfeffel, Gove, and the rest of that faction of the Con jobs and go nah, would trust none of them, let me off.

rjsterry

Mr Goo wrote:

Yellow Hammer document is a bureaucratic 'Worst Case' scenario without any mitigation should we leave EU without deal.
Pre take off safety videos on planes are worst case scenarios with mitigation. And we continue to fly on planes.

There's some debate given that the worst case scenario looks suspiciously similar to what was leaked in August , titled as a base case scenario and denounced as out of date and inaccurate. Anyway we'll find out where we've got to when they issue the update in a couple of weeks.

tailwindhome

8 weeks ago Boris' Cabinet was a Brexiteer Dream Team

Today their work product is derided as Project Fear

Help me out here.

What is it I'm missing?

surrey_commuter

Stevo 666 wrote:

Robert88 wrote:

Isn't refining stuff rather important to our gdp? Not a good idea to do all this protective stuff over.

That is why we would do it.

Rates and contribution to the economy here: if we impose 4.7% then it's a level playing field. If so, they could cut petrol excise duty to keep a lid on the price in the UK.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49425202
The govt said they would change tariffs if needed.

I thought the issue was that tariffs would stop us from exporting refined oil which would make our refineries uneconomic. How will adding tariffs to imports help?

Frankly it is a very small cost of Brexiting.

It really is bizarre the industries that the great british public chose to give a sh1t about. Is it a primeval thing that makes people care more about primary industries?

surrey_commuter

TailWindHome wrote:

8 weeks ago Boris' Cabinet was a Brexiteer Dream Team

Today their work product is derided as Project Fear

Help me out here.

What is it I'm missing?

I share your intrigue but doubt we will get a satisfactory answer.

Likewise the people who voted for Brexit are traitors and the ones who didn’t are “Spartans” which I assume is seen as a good thing.

drhaggis

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

Robert88 wrote:

Isn't refining stuff rather important to our gdp? Not a good idea to do all this protective stuff over.

That is why we would do it.

Rates and contribution to the economy here: if we impose 4.7% then it's a level playing field. If so, they could cut petrol excise duty to keep a lid on the price in the UK.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49425202
The govt said they would change tariffs if needed.

I thought the issue was that tariffs would stop us from exporting refined oil which would make our refineries uneconomic. How will adding tariffs to imports help?

Frankly it is a very small cost of Brexiting.

It really is bizarre the industries that the great british public chose to give a sh1t about. Is it a primeval thing that makes people care more about primary industries?

IANAEconomist, but surely if you raise import tariffs enough, provided there's enough oil in Scotland for the whole UK, a protectionistic approach might, just might, save the industry. Whether that's good use of resources is another matter.

coopster_the_1st

So many remoaners will not get this joke but the MATT cartoon has nailed it

surrey_commuter

DrHaggis wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

Robert88 wrote:

Isn't refining stuff rather important to our gdp? Not a good idea to do all this protective stuff over.

That is why we would do it.

Rates and contribution to the economy here: if we impose 4.7% then it's a level playing field. If so, they could cut petrol excise duty to keep a lid on the price in the UK.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49425202
The govt said they would change tariffs if needed.

I thought the issue was that tariffs would stop us from exporting refined oil which would make our refineries uneconomic. How will adding tariffs to imports help?

Frankly it is a very small cost of Brexiting.

It really is bizarre the industries that the great british public chose to give a sh1t about. Is it a primeval thing that makes people care more about primary industries?

IANAEconomist, but surely if you raise import tariffs enough, provided there's enough oil in Scotland for the whole UK, a protectionistic approach might, just might, save the industry. Whether that's good use of resources is another matter.

I think the issue is that the UK refineries have more capacity than the UK market needs therefore with tariffs that capacity will be cut.

If you extricate yourself from the world’s biggest market then these decisions are inevitable. WTF have people added refined oil to the list of industries they care about?

One of the advantages of freeing ourselves from the yoke of EU protectionism is that we can buy products tariff and standards free from anywhere in the world.

rjsterry

One more time: I only brought this up as it is supposedly the redacted bit of the Yellowhammer report just published. If correct it's possibly interesting that that is the bit that was supposed to be kept secret. Or it may just have been a ruse to distract journalists and forum regulars. I'm beginning to wish I hadn't mentioned it.

Pross

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

Robert88 wrote:

Isn't refining stuff rather important to our gdp? Not a good idea to do all this protective stuff over.

That is why we would do it.

Rates and contribution to the economy here: if we impose 4.7% then it's a level playing field. If so, they could cut petrol excise duty to keep a lid on the price in the UK.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49425202
The govt said they would change tariffs if needed.

I thought the issue was that tariffs would stop us from exporting refined oil which would make our refineries uneconomic. How will adding tariffs to imports help?

Frankly it is a very small cost of Brexiting.

It really is bizarre the industries that the great british public chose to give a sh1t about. Is it a primeval thing that makes people care more about primary industries?

Refining oil is a secondary industry

Ironically, Brexit could bring about greater self reliance and the need for us to move back more to primary industries.

rick_chasey

Pross wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

Robert88 wrote:

Isn't refining stuff rather important to our gdp? Not a good idea to do all this protective stuff over.

That is why we would do it.

Rates and contribution to the economy here: if we impose 4.7% then it's a level playing field. If so, they could cut petrol excise duty to keep a lid on the price in the UK.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49425202
The govt said they would change tariffs if needed.

I thought the issue was that tariffs would stop us from exporting refined oil which would make our refineries uneconomic. How will adding tariffs to imports help?

Frankly it is a very small cost of Brexiting.

It really is bizarre the industries that the great british public chose to give a sh1t about. Is it a primeval thing that makes people care more about primary industries?

Refining oil is a secondary industry

Ironically, Brexit could bring about greater self reliance and the need for us to move back more to primary industries.

Autarky does not work.

Ask anyone who lived through ‘70s & ‘80s Yugoslavia of Hitler before he decided to invade Poland.

darkhairedlord

Coopster the 1st wrote:

So many remoaners will not get this joke but the MATT cartoon has nailed it

On the whole this is a bicyclist forum. You do actually have a bike or perhaps have anything to contribute to the bicycling part?

robert88

Surrey Commuter wrote:

DrHaggis wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

Robert88 wrote:

Isn't refining stuff rather important to our gdp? Not a good idea to do all this protective stuff over.

That is why we would do it.

Rates and contribution to the economy here: if we impose 4.7% then it's a level playing field. If so, they could cut petrol excise duty to keep a lid on the price in the UK.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49425202
The govt said they would change tariffs if needed.

I thought the issue was that tariffs would stop us from exporting refined oil which would make our refineries uneconomic. How will adding tariffs to imports help?

Frankly it is a very small cost of Brexiting.

It really is bizarre the industries that the great british public chose to give a sh1t about. Is it a primeval thing that makes people care more about primary industries?

IANAEconomist, but surely if you raise import tariffs enough, provided there's enough oil in Scotland for the whole UK, a protectionistic approach might, just might, save the industry. Whether that's good use of resources is another matter.

I think the issue is that the UK refineries have more capacity than the UK market needs therefore with tariffs that capacity will be cut.

If you extricate yourself from the world’s biggest market then these decisions are inevitable. WTF have people added refined oil to the list of industries they care about?

One of the advantages of freeing ourselves from the yoke of EU protectionism is that we can buy products tariff and standards free from anywhere in the world.

It is not simply oil into fuel. The chemical processing industry is the uk's biggest physical export contributor.

How it will be affected by Brexit I don't know but maybe it will free us from the shackles of the EU so we can produce and use stuff like ddt (Dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane) again?

tailwindhome

robert88

"I Used To Dislike James O'Brien, I Now Realise He Was Right About Everything"

A Leave voter has a Damscene moment (and is willing to admit to it!)

Dominic in Battersea said he used to be a Brexiter, but now admits he's not so sure, thanks to James's LBC shows.

robert88

TailWindHome wrote:

rick_chasey

Robert88 wrote:

Dominic in Battersea said he used to be a Brexiter, but now admits he's not so sure, thanks to James's LBC shows.

Isn't that the ultimate remainer fantasy? A Brexiter saying "you were right"???

bigmat

Rick Chasey wrote:

Robert88 wrote:

Dominic in Battersea said he used to be a Brexiter, but now admits he's not so sure, thanks to James's LBC shows.

Isn't that the ultimate remainer fantasy? A Brexiter saying "you were right"???

Not been impressed by O'Brien lately. Most of his callers sound like plants, and anyone who sounds like they might have a credible argument against his position he just talks over and then cuts off. I know this is how these shows work, but sad to see him dragged down to the level of Ferrari, Farage et al just with a different political perspective.

rick_chasey

You have a lot more patience than me if you can listen to LBC. It's an entire radio show that has decided the Piers Morgan strategy to gain 'hits', listeners and viewers, is the most effective.

tailwindhome

tailwindhome

Fintan O Toole wrote:

The Times does fine work in tracking down the story of the Englishman Billy Hampton, who has left £1.5 million to Sinn Féin in his will because he was in a rage against the British government. It reports that he had previously sliced off his own penis. Two things seem remarkable. The story only makes page 20 — and quite rightly since it is far down the list of bizarre political developments, way behind the antics at Westminster. Plus, cutting off your penis and giving all your money to the most Anglophobic party you can think of is currently only the second most extreme form of self-harm in English politics, some distance behind a no-deal Brexit.

rjsterry

TailWindHome wrote:

Fintan O Toole wrote:

The Times does fine work in tracking down the story of the Englishman Billy Hampton, who has left £1.5 million to Sinn Féin in his will because he was in a rage against the British government. It reports that he had previously sliced off his own penis. Two things seem remarkable. The story only makes page 20 — and quite rightly since it is far down the list of bizarre political developments, way behind the antics at Westminster. Plus, cutting off your penis and giving all your money to the most Anglophobic party you can think of is currently only the second most extreme form of self-harm in English politics, some distance behind a no-deal Brexit.

Didn't you post this yesterday?