BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴

rick_chasey

Shirley Basso wrote:

While the sun may be the best selling paper, I don’t think it’s a mouthpiece for the uk press

Mail too, in fairness.

rick_chasey

Shout out the Great British Peso banter.

Volatile sterling lives up to ‘Great British Peso’ moniker
Brexit-driven volatility means comparison with Mexican currency flatters pound

https://www.ft.com/content/fbc8fc28-cf0b-11e9-b018-ca4456540ea6

Sterling’s nickname — the Great British Peso — is supposed to be a joke, a nod to its unusually violent moves in the wake of the Brexit referendum.

But, in recent days, markets have started showing signs of greater uncertainty over the path of the pound than of its Mexican cousin.

Implied volatility for the next two months, a measure of expected price swings over that period, now stands higher for sterling than for the peso. Intraday shifts in the pound have also grown more severe, underlining the extent to which Brexit and political drama are unsettling market participants.

“The way sterling is trading, it is starting to look like an emerging-market currency,” said Georgina Taylor, a multi-asset fund manager at Invesco.

The pound hit its lowest level against the dollar since the 1980s on Tuesday, but it has since bounced back to trade near $1.22 after the Boris Johnson-led government failed to prevent MPs from making an attempt to rule out leaving the EU without a deal.

rjsterry

Ballysmate wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

I can only assume the arts guys were given 15 minutes to mock that one up.

Is that a chicken or a c0ck?

There's quite a, um, contrast between the English and Scottish editions of the Sun. The headline north of the border is "Floppy Johnson can't get an election". Says a lot about the English nationalism that is poisoning the UK.

rick_chasey

Check it out:

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/eco ... -1.4007674

Government to discuss location of no-deal customs checks for cross-Border trade

rolf_f

Don't really get why Corbyn would allow a GE now. No guarantee of a majority (quite the reverse I would assume) and Bojos removing the Whip tactics mean presumably a load of new extremist Tory MPs replacing them resulting in a potential increase in Tory power even without an overall majority. There's a shortage of Tory MPs with principles and many of them will depart at the next election. I'd keep them in.

On the other hand, Bojo is so useless that they can make him stew in power indefinitely until either the Tories decide a less toxic PM might be a good idea or ever worsening ratings of the Tories result in a less risky time to call an election. Given that the papers are starting to suggest (of all things) that, in comparison to Bojo, Corbyn looks statesmanlike, time really does seem to be on his side.

rick_chasey

Someone smarter than me at work pointed out this is the first time an opposition leader has blocked an election, principally because prior to the fixed term parliament act, it was never able to.

rolf_f

Rick Chasey wrote:

Check it out:

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/eco ... -1.4007674

Government to discuss location of no-deal customs checks for cross-Border trade

What a weird world where, due to there being a border between countries with different rules and regulations, checks need to be made to ensure that the different rules and regs are being complied with but the only place that those checks cannot take place is at the border between the two countries.

I can see this working really well.

haydenm

morstar wrote:

darkhairedlord wrote:

TheBigBean wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

I think I'd die laughing if the prorogation of Parliament meant there wasn't enough time for a vonc

From a remain point of a view, a VONC risks a general election in November, so is a reasonable thing to oppose. I struggle to understand the reason for opposing the 15th Oct general election other than a fear of losing, or a fear of winning.

Vonc, 3month single issue pm to get Norway deal agreed and done. GE.
No one wants a johnson called election as absolutely no one trusts him to not let the date slide.

This.

I don't see the week as a complete disaster for Boris though. He has laid the foundations for blame he wanted all along.
Nobody is negotiating or proposing anything as that isn't the plan. The plan is to shore up his narrative of man of Brexit against a remain parliament. Winning the GE is the primary agenda. If anything, he would prefer a GE before Brexit as then it happens early in the next parliamentary session and 5 years for the dust to settle on whatever Brexit brings before another election.
The election is not without risk for him but he clearly fancies his chances.

This, but also this:

TailWindHome wrote:

Farage is going to eat Boris' lunch in an election.

If he'd won the vote he'd have got what he wanted, now he just has more ammo to be the brexit white knight (provided he can maneuver himself a little more gracefully than May's river barge approach).

The biggest and most pressing reason why a GE on the 15th of October is a dreadful idea is that it's my birthday, it'll make it even more likely that I'll want to stop the Earth and get off.

rolf_f

Rick Chasey wrote:

thecycleclinic wrote:

Mr goo is being optimistic I think with end game.

Begining of the end game possibly maybe but possibly not.

Well given this is only the withdrawal.

The EU just isn’t going to disappear. A lot of lives and livelihoods in the U.K. are dependent on the continent.

This is the demolition phase. Then we have the site clean up, planning permission and the reconstruction and commissioning phases to get through. I guess we are 10% into the game so far. So some way from the end.

TheBigBean

TailWindHome wrote:

Farage is going to eat Boris' lunch in an election.

You don't think they are all serving him his lunch on a plate then?

rjsterry

Rolf F wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

thecycleclinic wrote:

Mr goo is being optimistic I think with end game.

Begining of the end game possibly maybe but possibly not.

Well given this is only the withdrawal.

The EU just isn’t going to disappear. A lot of lives and livelihoods in the U.K. are dependent on the continent.

This is the demolition phase. Then we have the site clean up, planning permission and the reconstruction and commissioning phases to get through. I guess we are 10% into the game so far. So some way from the end.

The opposition parties need to block the message from Johnson that if only they vote for him it'll all be over and we won't have to worry about Brexit. It's obviously bo**ocks, but he's correctly assessed that hearing about the end of austerity is just too tempting for some people.

rjsterry

Rick Chasey wrote:

Someone smarter than me at work pointed out this is the first time an opposition leader has blocked an election, principally because prior to the fixed term parliament act, it was never able to.

It does seem that the FTPA has failed to achieve anything useful and has only created problems.

tailwindhome

TheBigBean wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

Farage is going to eat Boris' lunch in an election.

You don't think they are all serving him his lunch on a plate then?

If he asks the EU for an extension there's nothing he can do or say to recover.

TheBigBean

TailWindHome wrote:

TheBigBean wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

Farage is going to eat Boris' lunch in an election.

You don't think they are all serving him his lunch on a plate then?

If he asks the EU for an extension there's nothing he can do or say to recover.

Time will tell, but that is not my reading. I think he will just use it as more evidence that parliament is not representing the people. Ultimately, there are more leave seats than remain seats, and no amount of procrastination will change that.

tangled_metal

rjsterry wrote:

Ballysmate wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

I can only assume the arts guys were given 15 minutes to mock that one up.

Is that a chicken or a c0ck?

There's quite a, um, contrast between the English and Scottish editions of the Sun. The headline north of the border is "Floppy Johnson can't get an election". Says a lot about the English nationalism that is poisoning the UK.

Does it not say something towards the level of the Scots readers of the sun newspaper up there that they make a joke about election disfunction (a play on a male, medical condition) and the English phrasing about Corbyn being a coward?

Basically a pen1s related pun in Scotland but a joke about chicken cowardice while using a male fowl in England. Which is actually worse? Cockbird or pen1s pun?

BTW I've become a bystander in politics because both main parties have leaders who disgust me politically. I can appreciate any joke about any leader of a party right now because they're all useless IMHO.

rick_chasey

TheBigBean wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

TheBigBean wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

Farage is going to eat Boris' lunch in an election.

You don't think they are all serving him his lunch on a plate then?

If he asks the EU for an extension there's nothing he can do or say to recover.

Time will tell, but that is not my reading. I think he will just use it as more evidence that parliament is not representing the people. Ultimately, there are more leave seats than remain seats, and no amount of procrastination will change that.

Very difficult to predict elections, particularly given the makeup of some of the important constituencies. That's before you get to Scotland and the collapse of the Tories there etc. The voting patterns are in flux so much harder to predict.

That and you can't imagine there isn't a lot of dirt on BoJo flying around; most of the stuff on Corbyn has already been priced in as a result of the previous election. The anti-semitism card is harder to play when you're BoJo.

Odds are it'll be a no-majority government again.

rjsterry

Tangled Metal wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

Ballysmate wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

I can only assume the arts guys were given 15 minutes to mock that one up.

Is that a chicken or a c0ck?

There's quite a, um, contrast between the English and Scottish editions of the Sun. The headline north of the border is "Floppy Johnson can't get an election". Says a lot about the English nationalism that is poisoning the UK.

Does it not say something towards the level of the Scots readers of the sun newspaper up there that they make a joke about election disfunction (a play on a male, medical condition) and the English phrasing about Corbyn being a coward?

Basically a pen1s related pun in Scotland but a joke about chicken cowardice while using a male fowl in England. Which is actually worse? Cockbird or pen1s pun?

BTW I've become a bystander in politics because both main parties have leaders who disgust me politically. I can appreciate any joke about any leader of a party right now because they're all useless IMHO.

I think your doomed to disappointment expecting the Sun to do anything above calling people names.

rjsterry

Rick Chasey wrote:

TheBigBean wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

TheBigBean wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

Farage is going to eat Boris' lunch in an election.

You don't think they are all serving him his lunch on a plate then?

If he asks the EU for an extension there's nothing he can do or say to recover.

Time will tell, but that is not my reading. I think he will just use it as more evidence that parliament is not representing the people. Ultimately, there are more leave seats than remain seats, and no amount of procrastination will change that.

Very difficult to predict elections, particularly given the makeup of some of the important constituencies. That's before you get to Scotland and the collapse of the Tories there etc. The voting patterns are in flux so much harder to predict.

That and you can't imagine there isn't a lot of dirt on BoJo flying around; most of the stuff on Corbyn has already been priced in as a result of the previous election. The anti-semitism card is harder to play when you're BoJo.

Odds are it'll be a no-majority government again.

Quite possibly, but the degree of flux that you mention makes that far from certain. As mentioned, the other parties will need to successfully challenge Johnson's framing of "let's just leave and then we can forget about it and have lots of shiny new stuff".

tangled_metal

rjsterry wrote:

Tangled Metal wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

Ballysmate wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

I can only assume the arts guys were given 15 minutes to mock that one up.

Is that a chicken or a c0ck?

There's quite a, um, contrast between the English and Scottish editions of the Sun. The headline north of the border is "Floppy Johnson can't get an election". Says a lot about the English nationalism that is poisoning the UK.

Does it not say something towards the level of the Scots readers of the sun newspaper up there that they make a joke about election disfunction (a play on a male, medical condition) and the English phrasing about Corbyn being a coward?

Basically a pen1s related pun in Scotland but a joke about chicken cowardice while using a male fowl in England. Which is actually worse? Cockbird or pen1s pun?

BTW I've become a bystander in politics because both main parties have leaders who disgust me politically. I can appreciate any joke about any leader of a party right now because they're all useless IMHO.

I think your doomed to disappointment expecting the Sun to do anything above calling people names.

And if you are waiting for them to grow beyond cock jokes and puns

surrey_commuter

rjsterry wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

Someone smarter than me at work pointed out this is the first time an opposition leader has blocked an election, principally because prior to the fixed term parliament act, it was never able to.

It does seem that the FTPA has failed to achieve anything useful and has only created problems.

it was designed to give the coalition stability - it seemed to achieve that

Pross

TheBigBean wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

TheBigBean wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

Farage is going to eat Boris' lunch in an election.

You don't think they are all serving him his lunch on a plate then?

If he asks the EU for an extension there's nothing he can do or say to recover.

Time will tell, but that is not my reading. I think he will just use it as more evidence that parliament is not representing the people. Ultimately, there are more leave seats than remain seats, and no amount of procrastination will change that.

Surely the biggest issue would be on whether the Brexit Party dilutes the Tory (or indeed Labour in some areas) vote? It would be ironic if there was a GE and the Brexit Party takes enough votes from the Tories that it leads to a Labour government that opt for the softest Brexit possible.

imposter2.0

rjsterry wrote:

I think your doomed to disappointment expecting the Sun to do anything above calling people names.

Nationalism needs an enemy, or a scapegoat. It can't function without it.

Pross

A part of me is still wondering if this whole thing is a clever strategy to just get the May deal back on the table and passed because remainers are worried about no deal and the ERG lot are worried that Brexit may not happen with the prorogation having been used to apply the pressure and create the necessary panic to get things moving. Boris can then say to those who wanted a soft Brexit that he delivered on avoiding no deal whilst at the same time keeping all but the most vocal no deal Brexiteers happy that he has delivered on the referendum and will be proclaimed a political genius.

TheBigBean

Boris Johnson and Dominic Cummings believe their plan can still work

Five weeks ago Tory insiders explained to me how the prime minister was going to free himself from the prison of a one-vote majority, secure five years in power, outflank the Brexit Party at the polls and end up with enough MPs to let him do what he wanted with Brexit after that.

Everything that has happened since, from the revelation in a Scottish court that Johnson had secretly planned the proroguing of parliament as early as mid-August to the immediate attempt to hold an election, has borne out that this is indeed the plan. As the newly ousted rebel Sir Nicholas Soames says, “this was all completely set up”.

The second unexpected obstacle is Jeremy Corbyn’s refusal to back an instant election for mid-October. Johnson and Cummings had calculated that he would be unable to resist the election he has long claimed to want. Instead Corbyn has seen that move as the tank trap it is, and is refusing to agree an election on Johnson’s terms. He won’t support one at least until the legislation that blocks no-deal has been passed.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comm ... -9fz3dr3t2

rjsterry

Pross wrote:

A part of me is still wondering if this whole thing is a clever strategy to just get the May deal back on the table and passed because remainers are worried about no deal and the ERG lot are worried that Brexit may not happen with the prorogation having been used to apply the pressure and create the necessary panic to get things moving. Boris can then say to those who wanted a soft Brexit that he delivered on avoiding no deal whilst at the same time keeping all but the most vocal no deal Brexiteers happy that he has delivered on the referendum and will be proclaimed a political genius.

The thought had occurred. Possibly someone other than Johnson wanted an insurance if the miraculous alternative deal doesn't appear.

rick_chasey

TheBigBean wrote:

Boris Johnson and Dominic Cummings believe their plan can still work

Five weeks ago Tory insiders explained to me how the prime minister was going to free himself from the prison of a one-vote majority, secure five years in power, outflank the Brexit Party at the polls and end up with enough MPs to let him do what he wanted with Brexit after that.

Everything that has happened since, from the revelation in a Scottish court that Johnson had secretly planned the proroguing of parliament as early as mid-August to the immediate attempt to hold an election, has borne out that this is indeed the plan. As the newly ousted rebel Sir Nicholas Soames says, “this was all completely set up”.

The second unexpected obstacle is Jeremy Corbyn’s refusal to back an instant election for mid-October. Johnson and Cummings had calculated that he would be unable to resist the election he has long claimed to want. Instead Corbyn has seen that move as the tank trap it is, and is refusing to agree an election on Johnson’s terms. He won’t support one at least until the legislation that blocks no-deal has been passed.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comm ... -9fz3dr3t2

Do you believe this is the case?

I find that occam's razor tells me that losing the first four votes of your premiership, ousting the great and the good from your party and not getting an election before 31st of October when you've declared Britain is leaving "whatever" is more likely to be just things not going your way rather than some massive master plan.

rjsterry

Another one for the LibDems. Luciana Berger has joined.

Labour seem to be firming up a position for a post 31/10 election.

rolf_f

So according to number 10

House of liars wrote:

'For Jeremy Corbyn to continue to avoid an election would be a cowardly insult to democracy.'

But we had an election in 2017. The people voted for a new Government to take them through the next five years - they have spoken. Why does Boris want another vote? Is it because he thinks that some people might have changed their minds? I thought that asking people to vote again is undemocratic.

briantrumpet

I'm amused by Johnson calling Corbyn a coward for not wanting an election on 15 October: it's a standard playground taunt. I don't think Corbyn would be a coward in any way because of that. Actually, I think Corbyn might still be deluded enough to think he could come out on top in an election.

But Corbyn is a coward in another way: he still would like to see Brexit happen, but doesn't want to own it, or even admit it.

tailwindhome

Jo Johnson
@JoJohnsonUK
· 6m
It’s been an honour to represent Orpington for 9 years & to serve as a minister under three PMs. In recent weeks I’ve been torn between family loyalty and the national interest - it’s an unresolvable tension & time for others to take on my roles as MP & Minister. #overandout