BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴
Comments
-
Lookyhere wrote:Bo Duke wrote:
At least listen to a man who knows what he's talking about....mrfpb wrote:BBC Reality Check on the costs of Brexit:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-e ... m-36661918
Apparently it hasn't cost us "many times the cost of EU membership"
Yet!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p03zncw3
ah you mean the man who over saw the lead up to the financial crash of 2008 ? (amongst others) i'm not entirely sure he is the voice of reason (or an expert) in these uncertain times.
we hear a lot about the euro and that it is a failed currency etc etc etc but wasnt our exchange rate far far higher against it once upon a time? so what does that make the pound?
Not sure its fair to lay the blame for the sub prime crash at King's door. I think the Euro is a "failed" currency because of the situation it puts Southern Europe in, rather than that it's a "weak" currency.You live and learn. At any rate, you live0 -
Lookyhere wrote:Bo Duke wrote:
At least listen to a man who knows what he's talking about....mrfpb wrote:BBC Reality Check on the costs of Brexit:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-e ... m-36661918
Apparently it hasn't cost us "many times the cost of EU membership"
Yet!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p03zncw3
ah you mean the man who over saw the lead up to the financial crash of 2008 ? (amongst others) i'm not entirely sure he is the voice of reason (or an expert) in these uncertain times.
we hear a lot about the euro and that it is a failed currency etc etc etc but wasnt our exchange rate far far higher against it once upon a time? so what does that make the pound?
What was the line in The Thick of it, something along the lines of "You have to find the right expert, one that tells you what you need to hear"A feather is kinky, a whole chicken is just perverse.0 -
bramstoker wrote:Lookyhere wrote:Bo Duke wrote:
At least listen to a man who knows what he's talking about....mrfpb wrote:BBC Reality Check on the costs of Brexit:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-e ... m-36661918
Apparently it hasn't cost us "many times the cost of EU membership"
Yet!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p03zncw3
ah you mean the man who over saw the lead up to the financial crash of 2008 ? (amongst others) i'm not entirely sure he is the voice of reason (or an expert) in these uncertain times.
we hear a lot about the euro and that it is a failed currency etc etc etc but wasnt our exchange rate far far higher against it once upon a time? so what does that make the pound?
What was the line in The Thick of it, something along the lines of "You have to find the right expert, one that tells you what you need to hear"
In some cases the choice of the right expert is much wider.0 -
Bo Duke wrote:
Thats right, slag him off.Lookyhere wrote:Bo Duke wrote:
At least listen to a man who knows what he's talking about....mrfpb wrote:BBC Reality Check on the costs of Brexit:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-e ... m-36661918
Apparently it hasn't cost us "many times the cost of EU membership"
Yet!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p03zncw3
ah you mean the man who over saw the lead up to the financial crash of 2008 ? (amongst others) i'm not entirely sure he is the voice of reason (or an expert) in these uncertain times.
we hear a lot about the euro and that it is a failed currency etc etc etc but wasnt our exchange rate far far higher against it once upon a time? so what does that make the pound?
There are no experts, theres only you.
Next..... :?
me an you both Bo
and it is on your side that derided the "experts"
MK was at the fore front of deregulating the money markets, of course sub prime isnt entirely his fault but we are all guessing here, you dragged him up as a man who knows what he talking about, i pointed out his track record.
right now there is no end of experts on both sides of the argument, history will tell us who were the right ones.0 -
Another expert opinion to disregard.
Credit Suisse's downgrade to its UK GDP forecast next year is huge: to MINUS 1.0% from PLUS 2.3%.0 -
TheBigBean wrote:Surrey Commuter wrote:
it is a subject I know a lot about so am happy to throw some light on it. yields on govt debt have fallen considerably since Brexit this in itself is bad as money sees bonds as a safe haven. it is also a positive sign that uk govt bonds are still seen as a safe haven. If you look at bonds for different countries it will tell you which are deemed the best credit risk.
Now where the BBC is wrong is that this is in the secondary market so does not effect what the govt pays to borrow. I believe the next sale of govt bonds is next week the price it has to pay will be the first real test of market sentiment.
Why differentiate between the primary and secondary market? If there was a difference there would be an arbitrage. That's effectively what Long Term Capital Management did and although they went bust, it was due to illiquidity in the old bonds not the new stuff.
The yield is only indicative of default risk if the issuer is unable to print money e.g. Greece. Here it simply reflects future interest rate expectations from the Bank of England. Again if it doesn't there is an arbitrage.
Surely printing money will increase inflation and currency risks. The amount sold the demand and price achieved will all tell us something.0 -
Joelsim wrote:Another expert opinion to disregard.
Credit Suisse's downgrade to its UK GDP forecast next year is huge: to MINUS 1.0% from PLUS 2.3%.
I saw a rough guide that 1% equals £10bn in Govt finances - which means a £33bn hole to fill.
Let's not disregard then just yet - the other expert forecasts may be worse.0 -
Surrey Commuter wrote:Surely printing money will increase inflation and currency risks.
The Bank of England has been failing to increase inflation for 2 years. It predicted at the start of June that it will not hit it's 2% target for another 2 years. Obviously next months inflation report will tell a different story, but the point is that increased inflation would be good for the economy under the terms the BoE currently works to.0 -
Surrey Commuter wrote:TheBigBean wrote:Surrey Commuter wrote:
it is a subject I know a lot about so am happy to throw some light on it. yields on govt debt have fallen considerably since Brexit this in itself is bad as money sees bonds as a safe haven. it is also a positive sign that uk govt bonds are still seen as a safe haven. If you look at bonds for different countries it will tell you which are deemed the best credit risk.
Now where the BBC is wrong is that this is in the secondary market so does not effect what the govt pays to borrow. I believe the next sale of govt bonds is next week the price it has to pay will be the first real test of market sentiment.
Why differentiate between the primary and secondary market? If there was a difference there would be an arbitrage. That's effectively what Long Term Capital Management did and although they went bust, it was due to illiquidity in the old bonds not the new stuff.
The yield is only indicative of default risk if the issuer is unable to print money e.g. Greece. Here it simply reflects future interest rate expectations from the Bank of England. Again if it doesn't there is an arbitrage.
Surely printing money will increase inflation and currency risks. The amount sold the demand and price achieved will all tell us something.
Yes printing will increase inflation and yes it will devalue the pound, but that risk is true for any investment in pounds, and so is reflected (or the probability of it) in the exchange rate today. That's not so rosy.
Government debt is probably the most misunderstood and misreported element of finance. Remember 1/3 of the government's debt is owned by the Bank of England. I wouldn't want to pretend in any way that the market has reacted favourably to the vote, but sovereign credit ratings, yields etc. are not the area to focus on.0 -
0 -
TheBigBean wrote:Surrey Commuter wrote:TheBigBean wrote:Surrey Commuter wrote:
it is a subject I know a lot about so am happy to throw some light on it. yields on govt debt have fallen considerably since Brexit this in itself is bad as money sees bonds as a safe haven. it is also a positive sign that uk govt bonds are still seen as a safe haven. If you look at bonds for different countries it will tell you which are deemed the best credit risk.
Now where the BBC is wrong is that this is in the secondary market so does not effect what the govt pays to borrow. I believe the next sale of govt bonds is next week the price it has to pay will be the first real test of market sentiment.
Why differentiate between the primary and secondary market? If there was a difference there would be an arbitrage. That's effectively what Long Term Capital Management did and although they went bust, it was due to illiquidity in the old bonds not the new stuff.
The yield is only indicative of default risk if the issuer is unable to print money e.g. Greece. Here it simply reflects future interest rate expectations from the Bank of England. Again if it doesn't there is an arbitrage.
Surely printing money will increase inflation and currency risks. The amount sold the demand and price achieved will all tell us something.
Yes printing will increase inflation and yes it will devalue the pound, but that risk is true for any investment in pounds, and so is reflected (or the probability of it) in the exchange rate today. That's not so rosy.
Government debt is probably the most misunderstood and misreported element of finance. Remember 1/3 of the government's debt is owned by the Bank of England. I wouldn't want to pretend in any way that the market has reacted favourably to the vote, but sovereign credit ratings, yields etc. are not the area to focus on.
OK - I deal with people who obsess about this stuff (pension fund money not mine) and they see the next govt sale as the first true test of where we are. If I am understanding correctly you are saying any surprises would be showing in the market?0 -
Surrey Commuter wrote:Joelsim wrote:Another expert opinion to disregard.
Credit Suisse's downgrade to its UK GDP forecast next year is huge: to MINUS 1.0% from PLUS 2.3%.
I saw a rough guide that 1% equals £10bn in Govt finances - which means a £33bn hole to fill.
Let's not disregard then just yet - the other expert forecasts may be worse.
£18bn I read0 -
Surrey Commuter wrote:
OK - I deal with people who obsess about this stuff (pension fund money not mine) and they see the next govt sale as the first true test of where we are. If I am understanding correctly you are saying any surprises would be showing in the market?
I would expect it to pass off uneventfully (even if it is a failed auction). But then again I expected a 55/45 Remain vote.
EDIT - saved screen space added some words.0 -
I see your The Thick Of It and raise you Super-Omnishambles.0
-
The Gove email is fun. Not that there's much new about it.My blog: http://www.roubaixcycling.cc (kit reviews and other musings)
https://twitter.com/roubaixcc
Facebook? No. Just say no.0 -
TheBigBean wrote:Surrey Commuter wrote:
OK - I deal with people who obsess about this stuff (pension fund money not mine) and they see the next govt sale as the first true test of where we are. If I am understanding correctly you are saying any surprises would be showing in the market?
I would expect it to pass off uneventfully (even if it is a failed auction). But then again I expected a 55/45 Remain vote.
EDIT - saved screen space added some words.
the other pointers they said to look for were the MPC meeting then the OBR sustainability report - is that a better shout?0 -
Joelsim wrote:Surrey Commuter wrote:Joelsim wrote:Another expert opinion to disregard.
Credit Suisse's downgrade to its UK GDP forecast next year is huge: to MINUS 1.0% from PLUS 2.3%.
I saw a rough guide that 1% equals £10bn in Govt finances - which means a £33bn hole to fill.
Let's not disregard then just yet - the other expert forecasts may be worse.
£18bn I read
per 1% or overall?0 -
mrfpb wrote:Surrey Commuter wrote:Surely printing money will increase inflation and currency risks.
The Bank of England has been failing to increase inflation for 2 years. It predicted at the start of June that it will not hit it's 2% target for another 2 years. Obviously next months inflation report will tell a different story, but the point is that increased inflation would be good for the economy under the terms the BoE currently works to.
one of the benefits is that it inflates away debt - good if you owe money but less so if you are a lender0 -
Surrey Commuter wrote:Joelsim wrote:Surrey Commuter wrote:Joelsim wrote:Another expert opinion to disregard.
Credit Suisse's downgrade to its UK GDP forecast next year is huge: to MINUS 1.0% from PLUS 2.3%.
I saw a rough guide that 1% equals £10bn in Govt finances - which means a £33bn hole to fill.
Let's not disregard then just yet - the other expert forecasts may be worse.
£18bn I read
per 1% or overall?
Per 1%.0 -
0
-
Joelsim wrote:Surrey Commuter wrote:Joelsim wrote:Surrey Commuter wrote:Joelsim wrote:Another expert opinion to disregard.
Credit Suisse's downgrade to its UK GDP forecast next year is huge: to MINUS 1.0% from PLUS 2.3%.
I saw a rough guide that 1% equals £10bn in Govt finances - which means a £33bn hole to fill.
Let's not disregard then just yet - the other expert forecasts may be worse.
£18bn I read
per 1% or overall?
Per 1%.
Oh dear0 -
Joelsim wrote:
the onus needs to be on revoking the result and staying in EU, leaving has the potential to turn us into an economic basket case, unlike in the past, when we had North Sea oil, we ll have nothing to fall back on.
this makes a an interesting read.... democracy eh? :roll:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... re-murdoch0 -
Don't forget the Ref result is advisory, not binding.
The more racist incidents that happen the more people will regret their Leave vote - over 1m already apparently.
And of course the possibility of it either being an election or a Parliamentary vote.0 -
Interesting post going around Facebook looking at Sky Data's and Lord Ashcroft's exit polls
36% of eligible under 25s voted
83% of eligible over 65s voted
So when the under 25s are aggrieved at what the older generation have done to them, it's worth asking them if they voted.
I thought that the under 25s had got involved in this. Maybe they were really poorly engaged before.0 -
mrfpb wrote:Interesting post going around Facebook looking at Sky Data's and Lord Ashcroft's exit polls
36% of eligible under 25s voted
83% of eligible over 65s voted
So when the under 25s are aggrieved at what the older generation have done to them, it's worth asking them if they voted.
I thought that the under 2s had got involved in this. Maybe they were really poorly engaged before.
That's right. A very poor showing from the youth voters. Another issue for Westminster to address in being out of touch.0 -
#Brexit. Seems like a good idea #takebackcontrol #oops
EIU Brexit Take from the Economist Intelligence Unit
1. Brexit has plunged the UK into political, economic and market turmoil. We expect this turmoil to be sustained
2. Financial market volatility will persist, while uncertainty over the future of the UK's relationship with EU will feed into real economy
3. We significantly revised our economic fcast. After growth of 1.5% this year, we expect contraction of 1% in 2017
4. We expect to see decline in investment of 8% and decline in private consumption of 3% in 2017 with the pound levelling out at $1.24
5. The vote has transformed our fiscal forecasts. Falling tax rev & higher social transfers as unemployment rises
6. We now expect the UK's public debt burden to reach 100% of GDP by 2018
7. This hit brings UK's post-crisis recovery to a halt. 2018 real GDP will be almost 4% below pre-referendum forecast (2020 = 6% below)0 -
When i lived in Sweden, I used to watch the ITN international news. Its was wall to wall what was happening in Europe. It painted such a different picture of the EU. It always seemed to me that the press was always reporting everything bad about the EU or some on-going disagreement.
I remember a news clip showing the Greeks dropping big concrete blocks with steel protruding out of them. This was their method of stopping the destructive drag net fishing. When I got back to the UK, picking up the papers the very next day, not a single mention of the Greek actions and hardly any corresponding news items to what I had seen just the day before.
There was a study in the West Country. Well over 60% at the time didn't agree with being in the EU, thought it was a waste of time and money. Then the Tin mines overflowed their effluent. The UK government was scrabbling around trying desperately to find the money for an .environmental catastrophe that would have lasting damage of 10 years or more'.
Then they tapped in to the European Rural development fund (environmental section). The problem was dissipated far quicker than if it had been left solely to the UK government.
The survey of the EU was done again and the consensus had swapped the other way.
For too long 'EU is bad...EU is over regulatory...EU reduces sovereignty...The EU is controlling everything' and simultaneously looking across the pond to the point i'm sick fed up of. Culturally and Politically, we are far closer to the Europeans than the Americans.
That's just it, we have sat on the fence and at any point could have fallen on either side. The mess we are in is a direct result of our ambiguous standing and headlessness.seanoconn - gruagach craic!0 -
Joelsim wrote:#Brexit. Seems like a good idea #takebackcontrol #oops
EIU Brexit Take from the Economist Intelligence Unit
1. Brexit has plunged the UK into political, economic and market turmoil. We expect this turmoil to be sustained
2. Financial market volatility will persist, while uncertainty over the future of the UK's relationship with EU will feed into real economy
3. We significantly revised our economic fcast. After growth of 1.5% this year, we expect contraction of 1% in 2017
4. We expect to see decline in investment of 8% and decline in private consumption of 3% in 2017 with the pound levelling out at $1.24
5. The vote has transformed our fiscal forecasts. Falling tax rev & higher social transfers as unemployment rises
6. We now expect the UK's public debt burden to reach 100% of GDP by 2018
7. This hit brings UK's post-crisis recovery to a halt. 2018 real GDP will be almost 4% below pre-referendum forecast (2020 = 6% below)
See, thing is, if that's true. If it's even possible, then what we need is for a body that generally looks out for our better interests, that protects us, that does what it can to ensure that things are good for us, to do something.
Even if that means pissing the electorate off.My blog: http://www.roubaixcycling.cc (kit reviews and other musings)
https://twitter.com/roubaixcc
Facebook? No. Just say no.0 -
Joelsim wrote:#Brexit. Seems like a good idea #takebackcontrol #oops
EIU Brexit Take from the Economist Intelligence Unit
1. Brexit has plunged the UK into political, economic and market turmoil. We expect this turmoil to be sustained
2. Financial market volatility will persist, while uncertainty over the future of the UK's relationship with EU will feed into real economy
3. We significantly revised our economic fcast. After growth of 1.5% this year, we expect contraction of 1% in 2017
4. We expect to see decline in investment of 8% and decline in private consumption of 3% in 2017 with the pound levelling out at $1.24
5. The vote has transformed our fiscal forecasts. Falling tax rev & higher social transfers as unemployment rises
6. We now expect the UK's public debt burden to reach 100% of GDP by 2018
7. This hit brings UK's post-crisis recovery to a halt. 2018 real GDP will be almost 4% below pre-referendum forecast (2020 = 6% below)
Without reading back 140 pages from memory that is pretty much what the "experts" predicted. Having read this forecast in greater detail it does come with the proviso that they see a greater risk to the downside than upside.
What does it all mean - probably a £10bn hole in public finances this year and £40bn the year after.
So Brexiteers is this still a price worth paying or are we still in expert denial?0 -
bendertherobot wrote:Joelsim wrote:#Brexit. Seems like a good idea #takebackcontrol #oops
EIU Brexit Take from the Economist Intelligence Unit
1. Brexit has plunged the UK into political, economic and market turmoil. We expect this turmoil to be sustained
2. Financial market volatility will persist, while uncertainty over the future of the UK's relationship with EU will feed into real economy
3. We significantly revised our economic fcast. After growth of 1.5% this year, we expect contraction of 1% in 2017
4. We expect to see decline in investment of 8% and decline in private consumption of 3% in 2017 with the pound levelling out at $1.24
5. The vote has transformed our fiscal forecasts. Falling tax rev & higher social transfers as unemployment rises
6. We now expect the UK's public debt burden to reach 100% of GDP by 2018
7. This hit brings UK's post-crisis recovery to a halt. 2018 real GDP will be almost 4% below pre-referendum forecast (2020 = 6% below)
See, thing is, if that's true. If it's even possible, then what we need is for a body that generally looks out for our better interests, that protects us, that does what it can to ensure that things are good for us, to do something.
Even if that means pissing the electorate off.
I understand where you are coming from but this was all known by Cameron before he called the referendum. It was certainly known by the leaders of Brexit and it was known (if denied) by the 17 million people who voted out and the circa 10 million who did not bother to vote.
It is what they want, a price worth paying to get their country back. Just a shame they will take the 15 million down with them.0
