The Irony Thread
Comments
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He refused to share brexit economic analysis so why is it different in rona? I'm sure steve baker would have an answer.surrey_commuter said:
You don’t think it would be easy to input shutting all shops into the model and forecasting the outcome?john80 said:
I am merely pointing out the laughable request that Rick made that it would be possible to drill down into individual covid rules versus effects prior to making any decisions. Talk about paralysis by analysis. The figures would be about as questionable as a certain model trotted out at the beginning of all this.surrey_commuter said:
The BofE is now headed up by a Brexiteer and it is he who thinks no deal Brexit will be worse than the global pandemic. They have declined to release the details of their modelling so it is a bit unrealistic to expect Ric to build a model of the UK economy and share with you his methodology.john80 said:
I could do but the BOE and Carney also made some bold claims about leaving the EU that did not materialise on the day of departure. I wonder why that would be. Again your point still does not get to the bottom of how you would provide a full assessment that was accurate for different measures other than a broad brush stab in the dark. For example when you close a cafe maybe a company selling expresso machines online does a roaring trade. How you going to factor all this in. I am all ears to your mathematical methodology.rick_chasey said:
Why don’t you ask the BoE who did it and said no deal Brexit will be more costly than rona?john80 said:
I wonder how much money it would cost to do this and the variability of the assessments would be huge. For sure an individual business could take a stab at their cost for a restriction but a government trying to add all those up the error potential is massive. To give one example what is the cost to the economy of the rule of six versus two households. Good luck guessing how that impacts open businesses in advance.rick_chasey said:FWIW if people who are Brexiters are angry that the government isn’t publishing or even making impact reports on the full cost of the lockdowns - now you know how remainers felt during brexit.
Think we can all agree they should always do it and make it available.
Likewise looking at data to see how likely people are to contract it in a retail environment?
Boris already has access to this economic analysis but declines to share it. The only logical conclusion is that people would disagree, based on that analysis, with the decisions he is making.0 -
For sure you can take all the numbers for shop shutting but you will end up with a big number but how accurate is this number. A couple of examples would be that you can buy stuff from Next online. How much of the loss in turnover of the shops is transferred to the internet arm of this business and how much is lost by either no spend or the customer spending elsewhere. If the shops you shut that don't have an ability to generate revenue in other ways then it is a bit easier but some of that spend will go elsewhere such as the pockets of Amazon and Fedex to deliver it to you. So if I said what is the GDP impact of X measure then it is actually a pretty elaborate calculation to get to the answer that will be within 1-2% of the actual outcome. If your measure is only going to damage UK GDP by 2% then you need a pretty good accuracy level as you are dealing with big numbers. This completely ignores the softer side in that if enough businesses permanently close then the local people will feel aggrieved beyond that which the figures would indicate they should as there will be lasting effects that again are difficult to calculate as you don't know in advance the tipping point in liquidity for each business. So is it better than the gut feel when you are debating this in the house of commons as to what measures to agree with and those to disagree with. Or do you go down a detail rabbit hole with limited confidence in the data upon which you are making decisions. That is the difficulty in asking for detailed impact statements.surrey_commuter said:
You don’t think it would be easy to input shutting all shops into the model and forecasting the outcome?john80 said:
I am merely pointing out the laughable request that Rick made that it would be possible to drill down into individual covid rules versus effects prior to making any decisions. Talk about paralysis by analysis. The figures would be about as questionable as a certain model trotted out at the beginning of all this.surrey_commuter said:
The BofE is now headed up by a Brexiteer and it is he who thinks no deal Brexit will be worse than the global pandemic. They have declined to release the details of their modelling so it is a bit unrealistic to expect Ric to build a model of the UK economy and share with you his methodology.john80 said:
I could do but the BOE and Carney also made some bold claims about leaving the EU that did not materialise on the day of departure. I wonder why that would be. Again your point still does not get to the bottom of how you would provide a full assessment that was accurate for different measures other than a broad brush stab in the dark. For example when you close a cafe maybe a company selling expresso machines online does a roaring trade. How you going to factor all this in. I am all ears to your mathematical methodology.rick_chasey said:
Why don’t you ask the BoE who did it and said no deal Brexit will be more costly than rona?john80 said:
I wonder how much money it would cost to do this and the variability of the assessments would be huge. For sure an individual business could take a stab at their cost for a restriction but a government trying to add all those up the error potential is massive. To give one example what is the cost to the economy of the rule of six versus two households. Good luck guessing how that impacts open businesses in advance.rick_chasey said:FWIW if people who are Brexiters are angry that the government isn’t publishing or even making impact reports on the full cost of the lockdowns - now you know how remainers felt during brexit.
Think we can all agree they should always do it and make it available.
Likewise looking at data to see how likely people are to contract it in a retail environment?
Boris already has access to this economic analysis but declines to share it. The only logical conclusion is that people would disagree, based on that analysis, with the decisions he is making.0 -
To me the economic report can be a footnote as any economic report will be politically skewed. I want an impact report on the collateral damage deaths from the current policy. That won't need a skewed economic report to prove the current policy is wrong!rick_chasey said:FWIW if people who are Brexiters are angry that the government isn’t publishing or even making impact reports on the full cost of the lockdowns - now you know how remainers felt during brexit.
Think we can all agree they should always do it and make it available.0 -
it really is not that difficult to calculate the damage done by different levels and duration of lockdown. They will know the impact of half the country being in tier 2 rather than all in tier 3.john80 said:
For sure you can take all the numbers for shop shutting but you will end up with a big number but how accurate is this number. A couple of examples would be that you can buy stuff from Next online. How much of the loss in turnover of the shops is transferred to the internet arm of this business and how much is lost by either no spend or the customer spending elsewhere. If the shops you shut that don't have an ability to generate revenue in other ways then it is a bit easier but some of that spend will go elsewhere such as the pockets of Amazon and Fedex to deliver it to you. So if I said what is the GDP impact of X measure then it is actually a pretty elaborate calculation to get to the answer that will be within 1-2% of the actual outcome. If your measure is only going to damage UK GDP by 2% then you need a pretty good accuracy level as you are dealing with big numbers. This completely ignores the softer side in that if enough businesses permanently close then the local people will feel aggrieved beyond that which the figures would indicate they should as there will be lasting effects that again are difficult to calculate as you don't know in advance the tipping point in liquidity for each business. So is it better than the gut feel when you are debating this in the house of commons as to what measures to agree with and those to disagree with. Or do you go down a detail rabbit hole with limited confidence in the data upon which you are making decisions. That is the difficulty in asking for detailed impact statements.surrey_commuter said:
You don’t think it would be easy to input shutting all shops into the model and forecasting the outcome?john80 said:
I am merely pointing out the laughable request that Rick made that it would be possible to drill down into individual covid rules versus effects prior to making any decisions. Talk about paralysis by analysis. The figures would be about as questionable as a certain model trotted out at the beginning of all this.surrey_commuter said:
The BofE is now headed up by a Brexiteer and it is he who thinks no deal Brexit will be worse than the global pandemic. They have declined to release the details of their modelling so it is a bit unrealistic to expect Ric to build a model of the UK economy and share with you his methodology.john80 said:
I could do but the BOE and Carney also made some bold claims about leaving the EU that did not materialise on the day of departure. I wonder why that would be. Again your point still does not get to the bottom of how you would provide a full assessment that was accurate for different measures other than a broad brush stab in the dark. For example when you close a cafe maybe a company selling expresso machines online does a roaring trade. How you going to factor all this in. I am all ears to your mathematical methodology.rick_chasey said:
Why don’t you ask the BoE who did it and said no deal Brexit will be more costly than rona?john80 said:
I wonder how much money it would cost to do this and the variability of the assessments would be huge. For sure an individual business could take a stab at their cost for a restriction but a government trying to add all those up the error potential is massive. To give one example what is the cost to the economy of the rule of six versus two households. Good luck guessing how that impacts open businesses in advance.rick_chasey said:FWIW if people who are Brexiters are angry that the government isn’t publishing or even making impact reports on the full cost of the lockdowns - now you know how remainers felt during brexit.
Think we can all agree they should always do it and make it available.
Likewise looking at data to see how likely people are to contract it in a retail environment?
Boris already has access to this economic analysis but declines to share it. The only logical conclusion is that people would disagree, based on that analysis, with the decisions he is making.
Boris's inner circle know all this but have decided not to share it. Why do you think this is ?0 -
I don't think all of the people who'd be buying clothes for going out in will be buying them online instead.
Home decoration and furnishings are booming though.0 -
The secondary issue that is hard to calculate is how different groups are being affected by lockdown. Those that can work from home have probably made savings over the last 8 months much like the OAP's with fixed incomes from their pensions. Nobody knows how these people are going to choose to spend their money. Will they hoard it waiting for normality and nice experiences or buy sofas from DFS or both. Does this balance those that are unemployed and essentially penniless. I don't know and I don't think Boris's numbers will tell the complete picture to allow choices to me made.kingstongraham said:I don't think all of the people who'd be buying clothes for going out in will be buying them online instead.
Home decoration and furnishings are booming though.
A classic case of this is the lockdown tiers that will continue in some form probably till April will cost a bucket load of money to both the economy and the government. China is back in normality with a draconian App you need on your phone to go out and extreme local lockdowns backed by significant police intervention if required. They even managed to do testing of 8 million people in a city to nip an outbreak in the bud. Consequently Beijing is back operating normally with people organising big events and going about their business. The issue with Westminster is that they are tinkering around the edges of should we close a pub for 3 months or accept higher transmission. Lets hope vaccination comes quickly because lets face it if normality is not returned by March then we are properly screwed economically with this level of small scale thinking and the publics lapping up of relatively low risks in real terms unless you are over 50.0 -
Being outside the court house in Manchester yesterday and the air being thick with the stench of marijuana smoke.0
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Piers Morgan being papped in a cab without his facemask.2
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The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.1 -
10 days to Brexit
Turkey bans travel from the UK
Breaking point indeed
“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!1 -
If I were writing this the editor would feel this was a bit too on the nosetailwindhome said:10 days to Brexit
Turkey bans travel from the UK
Breaking point indeed0 -
Possibly not the best use of the word "positive".
The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.1 -
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2021/jan/09/students-quit-free-speech-campaign-over-role-of-toby-young-founded-group?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
Well well well, if it isn’t a Toby Young “free speech” organisation censoring members.0 -
Republican Devin Nunes on Fox News claiming that Republicans have no way to communicate to the public now.
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So only Trump spoke for the GOP and he could only possibly use Twatter?0
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“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0
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Before you know it someone will start a thread on an Internet forum bemoaning the lack of a platform for exercising free speech.1
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Scottish fishing industry banging on about the impact of the Brexit they voted for on their business.
It's just a hill. Get over it.0 -
Our food delivery from Iceland just arrived late. The reason given was that one of their vans got stuck in ice earlier.1
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One of my disabled neighbour's carers, who's covered in tattoos, and won't get vaccinated because she's afraid of needles.0
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Webexes banging on about good planning and sticking to programmes overrunning by 50%0
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Never taken a flu jab before in my life, very rarely get any sort of infection that might be flu, but employer gave everyone a free jab voucher for use at Lloyds pharmacy chain. Booked a slot in October, contacted day before to say they had no stock so jab was cancelled. No idea at this point where I got in from, been working as normal all through pandemic, but just called in sick with classic flu symptoms after starting to feel rough yesterday.
It's a free ride, when you've already paid.================
2020 Voodoo Marasa
2017 Cube Attain GTC Pro Disc 2016
2016 Voodoo Wazoo0 -
Maybe she needs to go and get pi$$ed (again).briantrumpet said:One of my disabled neighbour's carers, who's covered in tattoos, and won't get vaccinated because she's afraid of needles.
seanoconn - gruagach craic!0 -
Roy Greenslade lecturing in ethics.1
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Time for a test. You may be a latecomer to the party.N0bodyOfTheGoat said:Never taken a flu jab before in my life, very rarely get any sort of infection that might be flu, but employer gave everyone a free jab voucher for use at Lloyds pharmacy chain. Booked a slot in October, contacted day before to say they had no stock so jab was cancelled. No idea at this point where I got in from, been working as normal all through pandemic, but just called in sick with classic flu symptoms after starting to feel rough yesterday.
It's a free ride, when you've already paid.
It's just a hill. Get over it.0 -
Especially as there's been no flu season anywhere in the world this year and not a single case detected by Public Health England.secretsam said:
Time for a test. You may be a latecomer to the party.N0bodyOfTheGoat said:Never taken a flu jab before in my life, very rarely get any sort of infection that might be flu, but employer gave everyone a free jab voucher for use at Lloyds pharmacy chain. Booked a slot in October, contacted day before to say they had no stock so jab was cancelled. No idea at this point where I got in from, been working as normal all through pandemic, but just called in sick with classic flu symptoms after starting to feel rough yesterday.
It's a free ride, when you've already paid.
Definitely one for this thread.
"Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.0 -
Maybe we could start a thread for “things that don’t surprise you because you thought you knew it already”ballysmate said:Roy Greenslade lecturing in ethics.
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Do we detect the efficiency and effectiveness influence of D1ldo Hardon at work in PHE?blazing_saddles said:no flu season anywhere in the world this year and not a single case detected by Public Health England.
Definitely one for this thread.
Anyway, WHO facts here. Very much reduced flu but not eliminated.
https://apps.who.int/flumart/Default?ReportNo=1&CountryCode=GB
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Getting cut off on my bike at a junction by a car with Think Bike window stickers littered all over their rear screen.0
