Tour de France Stage 5 Ypres-Arenberg *Spoiler*

greasedscotsman

Current forecast says rain! :shock:

r0bh

Cracking preview video from GCN: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TrCT_-6SGNc

knedlicky

greasedscotsman wrote:

Current forecast says rain! :shock:

So a stage like when Hinault (and Kuiper) de-classed the opposition in 1980?
(Stage 5 Liege-Lille, 42 kms of cobbles, a headwind and lots of driving rain).

The result being knee problems and his withdrawal a week later.

Froome went out training in the wrong conditions - at the sunny beginning of June:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1o9bZ57UeGM

Gazzetta67

Let it rain let it rain let it rain as Dean Martin once said on the B side 8)

blazing_saddles

greasedscotsman wrote:

Current forecast says rain! :shock:

It also says 75kph wind. :shock: :shock:
http://belgique.lachainemeteo.com/meteo ... 8833-2.php

joelsim

Ouch. That will put the cat amongst the pigeons.

milton50

Blazing Saddles wrote:

greasedscotsman wrote:

Current forecast says rain! :shock:

It also says 75kph wind. :shock: :shock:
http://belgique.lachainemeteo.com/meteo ... 8833-2.php

Jeez. If the conditions really are that bad then I can see at least one of the big GC names losing several minutes.

Interestingly in the GCN preview they say that once the riders get to Wevelgem the route changes direction so often that the wind may not have a clear-cut effect.

Pross

What's the betting on one of the GC teams trying to neutralise it if conditions are as bad as forecast? They'd better not, it could be epic and the defining stage of the race for some. Has Contador got any experienced pave riders to support him?

blazing_saddles

Using that site, the cobbled sections seem to have showers and 45kph winds forecast.
Not as bad, but pretty awful.
I guess we've found out why Luca Paolini asked Cancellara had he ridden a wet P-R.

However, to me it seems inevitable that some GT riders will have their aspirations blown away,
as that wind speed and exposed roads make echelons highly probable, never mind wet cobbles.

iainf72

It's a funny one - But I suspect none of the big GC guys will really have a problem with the cobbles. It's more like mechanical issues etc

takethehighroad

The last truly wet PR was 2002, so I'm not sure if anyone in the current peloton has ridden a wet one, certainly not at the head of the race.

Eisel perhaps? I'm interested to see how Kwiatek will do on the cobbles, I think he may surprise a few

Pross

I actually think Valverde will do well on this stage. Cancellara should enjoy it, presumably he won't have to be on nursemaid duties for Frank?

FJS

Pross wrote:

I actually think Valverde will do well on this stage. Cancellara should enjoy it, presumably he won't have to be on nursemaid duties for Frank?

I'm sure Cancellara will be given free reign.

Thomas, Eisel, Tosatto and Bennati will be tied to their GC leaders

What about Vanmarcke and Boom, Vansummeren and Langeveld, Bak and Roelandts, Oss and Van Avermaet? Still too many riders with view on the podium in Paris

With JRod so far down Kristoff and Paolini should have the day off

TheBigBean

I presume Greg Van Avermaet will be eyeing yellow as he hasn't lost any time yet. Cancellera may also have his eyes set on yellow - he probably should work with Vanmarcke if he wants to get enough time. Would you swap the stage for the yellow jersey?

DL1987

Even though he claims to hate them I'm looking forward to seeing how Tony Martin goes across the cobbles. To me he has the physical attributes of a guy who could win multiple P-R's.

milton50

DL1987 wrote:

Even though he claims to hate them I'm looking forward to seeing how Tony Martin goes across the cobbles. To me he has the physical attributes of a guy who could win multiple P-R's.

Good point actually. This will be the first time I've seen him race over the cobbles.

I find interesting that no one has mentioned Sagan yet. Cancellara and Vanmarcke couldn't drop him over 260kms and the full 26 sections this year let alone the 155km and 9 sections that they'll have to work with tomorrow. Neither could they drop Degenkolb come to think of it.

The_Boy

^^^ Demare also hug on valiantly till the final cobbled sector, so he might fancy his chances on a shorter route.

blazing_saddles

The current state of play:

Turfle

Of the northern classics riders,
Cance, Degenkolb, Sagan, Terpstra, Kristoff, GVA, Demare should all have free reign.
Vanmarcke, Vansummeren, Boom, Langeveld not sure about.
Thomas, Eisel no chance.

above_the_cows

I have cancelled a meeting scheduled for 4-6 tomorrow afternoon. I am supposed to be moving office. I'm going to go in early, do what I need to do and then head home.

I was planning on actually going to this stage until we were told we had to be in tomorrow for various moving logistical reasons. Well I'll be there to hand my keys back/get my new keys/oversee the moving of my plants but nothing is going to stand in the way of me watching this stage.

frenchfighter

TheBigBean wrote:

I presume Greg Van Avermaet will be eyeing yellow as he hasn't lost any time yet. Cancellera may also have his eyes set on yellow - he probably should work with Vanmarcke if he wants to get enough time. Would you swap the stage for the yellow jersey?

Yes I read earlier today that he really is aiming to take yellow tomorrow.

frenchfighter

"I cannot even say that the rain will be an issue on the cobbles for Alberto rides pretty well on them. He is technically comfortable. But in spite of the work we have done on this stage, you can never be sure. You can always crash, suffer a mechanical but were confident."
-Madiot

frenchfighter

"The cobbles are going to be carnage. I hope not, but we've got to be ready for it," Cancellara told Cyclingnews in an exclusive interview.

"I hope nobody crashes and loses a chance of winning the Tour de France because of what happens on the pavé. But it's racing. Roubaix is Roubaix. We all know what it’s like."

"I've already been asked if I'll ask for the stage to be neutralised if it rains but this is different. I know that it’s not a nice stage for Froome, Contador, Nibali and even our GC riders. But my reply is: so why not take out the climbs to make it easier for us? That never happens, so it's only right we race on the cobbles. It’s a risk for everyone, including me, but we've got to live with it and calculate the risks involved."

You have to laugh at that right

"It won’t be like a Classics race in April, it'll be completely different," Cancellara suggested.

"It might actually be even faster on the pavé because as we've seen in this Tour, the teams of the overall contenders have really controlled the racing. I'm sure it'll be the same before the cobbles.

"The cobbles starts early, with 68km to go, then there's a gap and then there's the finale with hardest four sectors of pavé close together in the last 24km.

"I'll have total freedom to ride my own race and target the stage victory, 100 per cent. We'll be thinking and riding as a team but it'll be up to Fränk (Schleck) to be up there with me. Last time we raced on the cobbles he was fourth wheel but then got taken out. So it's not about protecting a leader, you have to know and be ready to handle he cobbles."

tailwindhome

Ordre de marche.

Love it

knedlicky

TailWindHome wrote:

Ordre de marche.

Yes, by virtue of the placings in today's stage – Tinkoff and Movistar have moved above Sky and Belkin, Belkin also being ‘overtaken’ by Lotto.
Riders not paying attention to marginal gains?

iainf72

Wonder what the tactics will be tomorrow.

The last 4 cobbled sections are the critical ones but it could've been rough before then. The general feeling with the journos seems to be there won't be huge gaps.

joelsim

iainf72 wrote:

Wonder what the tactics will be tomorrow.

The last 4 cobbled sections are the critical ones but it could've been rough before then. The general feeling with the journos seems to be there won't be huge gaps.

All depends on Kwia and Mollema I reckon. If they go for it then the others may feel that they need to limit the losses.

iainf72

Chinny not too happy about the cobbles being in, especially if it rains. There are reports there has been so much rain the soil between the cobbles has washed out and they're even worse than usual.

Maybe Chinny will do his patron thing and they'll just cruise in...

Nahhhh...

Jez mon

iainf72 wrote:

Chinny not too happy about the cobbles being in, especially if it rains. There are reports there has been so much rain the soil between the cobbles has washed out and they're even worse than usual.

Maybe Chinny will do his patron thing and they'll just cruise in...

Nahhhh...

I thought he sounded fairly positive about them on the cycling news interview that Frenchfighter posted?

As for tactics...it's just gonna be a mad sprint leadout type affair to the cobbled sections, isn't it?

iainf72

"Tomorrow is totally different [from Roubaix]. It will be a special situation. Remember in 2010 with Frank Schelck, he was in 4th position and it was dry and warm and he lost his Tour there as a rider took him out. The circumstances are different, there are two races going on, where in Roubaix there is only one race. In Roubaix you have one team for yourself, and here there will be different teams with different set-ups. Plus with the bad weather that is on the map at the moment, it’s gonna be a disaster. It’s gonna be chaos - totally.

"Whether cobbles should be here is a good question. It’s the ASO’s decision – they want to have a show tomorrow. But maybe after tomorrow we will have a history day in cycling where everything will change around. When it’s nice weather cobbles are not bad, but for tomorrow? Really I don’t know - maybe I will laugh tomorrow, or maybe I will cry. Ask me tomorrow after the race and I can answer that question.

"Who has done Roubaix on wet roads? I don’t think there is anyone in the peloton who has. Even for me, I am a specialist in cobbles, and the rain is another circumstance. There are only 10-15 guys that really know how to ride so fast over the cobbles, but we are in the Tour. It’s not Roubaix and its not April.”

r0bh

iainf72 wrote:

Wonder what the tactics will be tomorrow.

The last 4 cobbled sections are the critical ones but it could've been rough before then. The general feeling with the journos seems to be there won't be huge gaps.

Worth the GC teams getting a man up the road for spare parts maybe?