Friday Thread: If Scotland vote YES will TWH have to leave?

greg66_tri_v2.0

Hmm. So GO has, with Balls and Alexander standing with him, completely scotched currency union.

The SNP's response appears to be at a level around "lalalala we can't hear you!".

This is the end of the Yes campaign, surely. A yes vote has nowhere to go: no currency Union with rUK, no intention to join the Euro, and no intention to set up their own currency.

Given the manner in which every setback for the SNP is met with "Westminster is a bully (but let's not forget that it will negotiate really nicely with us if we get a yes vote)", I can't help but wonder about what the true motives here are.

I wonder whether Salmond has ever really thought that he can win the yes vote, and then deliver viable nationhood for Scotland. I think more probable is that he has recognised for a long time that that is unattainable; but the real goal is Devomax, and if he stirs up anti Westminster feeling enough, he's got a much better shot at getting a ballot on Devomax in the next five years - something that was flatly ruled out as an option in the current vote.

First.Aspect

The SNP have worked back from independence until they have reached all of the loose ends that they can't tie up, whereas the "no" campaign are merely pointing out that if you work forward from any of these loose ends, you reach the conclusion that there is no case for independence.

It is embarrasing that there has been so little advance research about so many issues before calling the referendum and I do hope it will come home to roost.

A word of caution though, the "bullying toffs" line does go down quite well up here and the less that the painfully English, Westminster crowd wade in to the debate, the better. The "no" campaign really does have to have a Scottish accent.

As to the practicalities of currency union - it seems to me that the closest parallel would be Ireland from the 1920s onwards. Thing is, Ireland was proportionally a much much smaller economy in comparison to the UK. Scotland is about 10% of the UK economy and that's simply too much for the rest of the UK to risk having to prop up. Seems to be a pretty good argument to me. I certainly wouldn't want to prop Alex Salmond up, Jesus.

Salmond merely argues that if Scotland is going to screw everything up by leaving, currency union would be the least worst option. The Westinster politicians and, more notably, the treasury, point out that the best form of currency union is, er, the UK.

The plan B, incudentally, is to continue to use the pound outside of monetary union (c.f. Panama, El Salvador and Zimbabwe). Great. Oh, and they'd also renage on their share of UK national debt. Short termism in the extreme, since Scotland would then have the worst possible credit rating and would soon be worse off due to servicing the debt that a socialist government would inevitable build up in short order. It is irresponsible to even float that idea.

The obvious plan B would be a Scottish pound. However, they don't want to go there, presumably because being in close proximity to a much larger economy whilst having a weaker currency (again inevitable) is not a good situation to be in - see Canada vs the US, or NZ vs Aus. Currency fluctuations really do screw with the smaller economy in those situations.

As I say, its a bit embarrasing.

aberdeen_lune

Great to see you guys have swallowed the political rhetoric hook line and sinker. The statements yesterday were given for one purpose only to try to scare the Scots into voting no. There isn't much logic behind these statements it is all political rhetoric.

At the end of the day I won't be scared off by the negative campaign of the No parties. All their statements have been about why Scotland can't make a go of it as an Independant country. I have heard almost nothing about the positive aspects of staying in the UK.

I don't see why Scotland can't be a strong little Independant country within the EU. I would be quite happy to have the Euro as our currency and the ability to decide on our own goverment. Not much to ask is it for a country to have their own autonomy.

roger_merriman

Aberdeen_lune wrote:

Great to see you guys have swallowed the political rhetoric hook line and sinker. The statements yesterday were given for one purpose only to try to scare the Scots into voting no. There isn't much logic behind these statements it is all political rhetoric.

At the end of the day I won't be scared off by the negative campaign of the No parties. All their statements have been about why Scotland can't make a go of it as an Independant country. I have heard almost nothing about the positive aspects of staying in the UK.

I don't see why Scotland can't be a strong little Independant country within the EU. I would be quite happy to have the Euro as our currency and the ability to decide on our own goverment. Not much to ask is it for a country to have their own autonomy.

nothing to say that Scotland can't be a strong independant coutry but there seems to have been little thought given as to how this might be done. this really is something that should of been planned in detail years ago.

Hence inspite of the Rhetoric on both sides I tend to convinced that the argument that for a non scottish UK that being in a currency union with Scotland isn't in UK's interests.

meanredspider

Aberdeen_lune wrote:

I don't see why Scotland can't be a strong little Independant country within the EU. I would be quite happy to have the Euro as our currency and the ability to decide on our own goverment. Not much to ask is it for a country to have their own autonomy.

The positives are all the reverse of the negatives. For instance, there are a huge number of English people working in Scotland. If that then becomes a foreign country, what incentive is there for people to work "abroad" in Scotland? It's hard enough, as you've already indicated, to keep Scots in Scotland (ironically) and attract enough people to come to the beautiful town of Aberdeen. You'll just add another barrier to that. The positive is that mobility is borderless. I simply don't believe Scotland will be able to support its health service or education system (it's struggling to now).

The power of the pound
The combined capability of the military
Economic ebbs and flow protection (Celtic Tiger anyone...)
Olympics worth watching for anything more than curling

There does seem to be a naive belief that it will somehow be better as an independent Scotland without any real hard economic facts

rolf_f

Aberdeen_lune wrote:

At the end of the day I won't be scared off by the negative campaign of the No parties. All their statements have been about why Scotland can't make a go of it as an Independant country. I have heard almost nothing about the positive aspects of staying in the UK.

I don't see why Scotland can't be a strong little Independant country within the EU. I would be quite happy to have the Euro as our currency and the ability to decide on our own goverment. Not much to ask is it for a country to have their own autonomy.

That's great - you believe in your dream. The trouble is, a lot of Scots are much more critical about the pros and cons of independence and Salmond has to convince those as well. And he isn't doing such a good job of that. The fact is that you yourself are not really able to articulate the benefits beyond 'it would be great to be independent' and that isn't really good enough to win the vote.

Sewinman

Can you imagine the sheer cost of the bureaucracy that they will need to set up....it is frightening. They will need to recreate and launch every single administrative function that they already enjoy as being part of the UK, only smaller and without the economies of scale. Obviously it won't all work properly, and things will be forgotten. Inevitable bureaucratic chaos. If I was a Scot it would make me shudder!

DonDaddyD

It all sounds like a back of the fag packet job written up in a pub after Scotland qualified for the World Cup...

[Scottish accent]"F*ck the English, we've got trainspotting, FREEDOM!!!"

Beyond the 'if your Scottish you should vote YES' mantra there is little else of any real substance. UKIP's manifesto seems more credible.

And why does Scotland get the oil in the North Sea?

rick_chasey

Good analysis on the treasury manoeuvring on the currency and debt issue here on the FT

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2014/02/14/1 ... ing-union/

This blog is free to read, just need to sign up.

rolf_f

DonDaddyD wrote:

And why does Scotland get the oil in the North Sea?

Well, that's an interesting one. As far as I know, there isn't much genetic distinction between the Scots and Northern English so the justification for a separate Scotland is mainly about painting your face blue and being proudly independent. On the other hand, the Orkney and Shetland Islanders are genetically distinct. So they have a far greater justification to claim independence. And most of the oil would be in their waters.

Personally, if I lived on those Islands and Scotland became independent, I'd be demanding independence from Scotland.

I see a horrible vision of the islands turning into a windswept Northern version of Dubai

DonDaddyD

Rolf F wrote:

On the other hand, the Orkney and Shetland Islanders are genetically distinct.

How are they genetically disctinct? I am genuinely interested.

Broono83

Glad to see most of the rubbish spouted on here is by people who won't get to vote. Whoever was asking why Scotland would get the oil, quite simply because if Scotland was independent then it would be in our waters (despite Tony Blair snatching 6000 square miles of it in 1999 - stealing oil presumably being a hobby of his!)

The bottom line with regards to Gideon's speech yesterday is that the UK and the Sterling currency couldn't afford to lose an economy the size of Scotland's, it would destroy the pound. That's why it is being derided as an empty threat (an equally empty threat is Scotland walking away debt free but the SNP have already said they will take a fair share along with a fair share of the assets). Interesting that the Eton Tories and their Labour and Lib Dem clones have already put in their get out clauses "almost certainly", "not currently", "in its current form" etc ....

I can't see a majority of Scots voting Yes, especially with the media reporting we have to endure, but hopefully further devolution will come. We have to do something to change this society of obscene wealth for the ruling class and abject poverty for so many. Tory voters in Scotland could have meetings in a phone box yet many of the most important powers are decided by a bunch of millionaires who couldn't give 2 sh1ts what goes on outside the M25 unless it's going to affect their bank accounts.

Most importantly though, people need to realise this is not an election. This is a chance for Scotland to become independent. The vote is Yes or No. The vote is not for or against the SNP - who would probably disband into various factions post independence

jamesco

First Aspect wrote:

The obvious plan B would be a Scottish pound. However, they don't want to go there, presumably because being in close proximity to a much larger economy whilst having a weaker currency (again inevitable) is not a good situation to be in see Canada vs the US, or NZ vs Aus. Currency fluctuations really do screw with the smaller economy in those situations.

I'm kinda curious, what makes this "not a good situation"? The Aussie dollar may fluctuate depending on the price of minerals or the housing market in Sydney, while the Kiwi dollar remains unaffected; different economies, different currencies; how's that bad?

DonDaddyD

jamesco wrote:

First Aspect wrote:

The obvious plan B would be a Scottish pound. However, they don't want to go there, presumably because being in close proximity to a much larger economy whilst having a weaker currency (again inevitable) is not a good situation to be in see Canada vs the US, or NZ vs Aus. Currency fluctuations really do screw with the smaller economy in those situations.

I'm kinda curious, what makes this "not a good situation"? The Aussie dollar may fluctuate depending on the price of minerals or the housing market in Sydney, while the Kiwi dollar remains unaffected; different economies, different currencies; how's that bad?

Trading between countries, import and export costs with the continent. France (example) may ask the UK to pay Xamount for its Peugeot and Scotland twice as much because it has the weaker currency which may work out to be more than what the UK pays.

Import/Exporters leave Scotland for the UK where its cheaper to do their trade and simply drive the products up the motorway, at which point at the border the UK slap a tax further crippling Scotlands industry.

I could be wrong.

rolf_f

DonDaddyD wrote:

Rolf F wrote:

On the other hand, the Orkney and Shetland Islanders are genetically distinct.

How are they genetically disctinct? I am genuinely interested.

A lot more Scandinavian as you might expect - Vikings and all that.

Broono83 wrote:

We have to do something to change this society of obscene wealth for the ruling class and abject poverty for so many. Tory voters in Scotland could have meetings in a phone box yet many of the most important powers are decided by a bunch of millionaires who couldn't give 2 sh1ts what goes on outside the M25 unless it's going to affect their bank accounts.

So your desire for an independent Scotland has nothing to do with Scotland itself? You see a Londoncentric Government that you don't like and rather than pull together with the rest of England and Wales to do something about it (who, by your own argument, are in exactly the same boat as Scotland) you wish to bugger off in search of a dream and leave the rest of us to stew in it?

That's not a very pleasant attitude is it?

aberdeen_lune

Well said that man Mr Broon. Again we have lots of negative comments nothing constructive about staying in the UK apart from a stronger military and more medals in the Olympics. These things are not on the top of my wish list.

The European Union promotes workers mobility across all member states so I don't see why any European would have any problems working in Scotland. The independence vote is not about keeping Scotland for the Scots. Anyone who lives in Scotland can vote ( subject to length of residency) so everyone directly affected has their say.

Yes there are some bureaucratic issues to sort out but that's hardly insurmountable. It's just part of the growing pains. At the end of the day Scotland has a large enough GDP to have a strong economy and pay for all the services and infrastructure we require. We are not a heavily subsidised nation. That's a myth we are a net contributor to UK PLC.

Broono83

Rolf F wrote:

Broono83 wrote:

We have to do something to change this society of obscene wealth for the ruling class and abject poverty for so many. Tory voters in Scotland could have meetings in a phone box yet many of the most important powers are decided by a bunch of millionaires who couldn't give 2 sh1ts what goes on outside the M25 unless it's going to affect their bank accounts.

So your desire for an independent Scotland has nothing to do with Scotland itself? You see a Londoncentric Government that you don't like and rather than pull together with the rest of England and Wales to do something about it (who, by your own argument, are in exactly the same boat as Scotland) you wish to bugger off in search of a dream and leave the rest of us to stew in it?

That's not a very pleasant attitude is it?

Haha, I tailored my reasons for the audience!

You will, of course, be more than welcome to follow your businesses to our left of centre utopia!

BelgianBeerGeek

Broono83 wrote:

Glad to see most of the rubbish spouted on here is by people who won't get to vote. Whoever was asking why Scotland would get the oil, quite simply because if Scotland was independent then it would be in our waters (despite Tony Blair snatching 6000 square miles of it in 1999 - stealing oil presumably being a hobby of his!)

The bottom line with regards to Gideon's speech yesterday is that the UK and the Sterling currency couldn't afford to lose an economy the size of Scotland's, it would destroy the pound. That's why it is being derided as an empty threat (an equally empty threat is Scotland walking away debt free but the SNP have already said they will take a fair share along with a fair share of the assets). Interesting that the Eton Tories and their Labour and Lib Dem clones have already put in their get out clauses "almost certainly", "not currently", "in its current form" etc ....

I can't see a majority of Scots voting Yes, especially with the media reporting we have to endure, but hopefully further devolution will come. We have to do something to change this society of obscene wealth for the ruling class and abject poverty for so many. Tory voters in Scotland could have meetings in a phone box yet many of the most important powers are decided by a bunch of millionaires who couldn't give 2 sh1ts what goes on outside the M25 unless it's going to affect their bank accounts.

Most importantly though, people need to realise this is not an election. This is a chance for Scotland to become independent. The vote is Yes or No. The vote is not for or against the SNP - who would probably disband into various factions post independence

So a vote for independence could be apolitical?

Broono83

BelgianBeerGeek wrote:

So a vote for independence could be apolitical?

Well that depends on your definitial of political I suppose but if you mean non partisan with regards to any particular party then absolutely.

The Greens already support independence along with the SNP. Labour and to a much smaller degree the Tories have factions which support independence and the Lib Dems, if you can ever trust a word that slithers from their lips, are apparently in favour of the federalisation of the entire UK.

Its a vote to gain independence for Scotland so the people of Scotland can elect the representatives that they want to govern them.

rolf_f

Broono83 wrote:

Rolf F wrote:

Broono83 wrote:

We have to do something to change this society of obscene wealth for the ruling class and abject poverty for so many. Tory voters in Scotland could have meetings in a phone box yet many of the most important powers are decided by a bunch of millionaires who couldn't give 2 sh1ts what goes on outside the M25 unless it's going to affect their bank accounts.

So your desire for an independent Scotland has nothing to do with Scotland itself? You see a Londoncentric Government that you don't like and rather than pull together with the rest of England and Wales to do something about it (who, by your own argument, are in exactly the same boat as Scotland) you wish to bugger off in search of a dream and leave the rest of us to stew in it?

That's not a very pleasant attitude is it?

Haha, I tailored my reasons for the audience!

You will, of course, be more than welcome to follow your businesses to our left of centre utopia!

You realise of course that nature abhors a vacuum. If Scotland became independent, you could expect a rise of the right wing. It wouldn't take too long for a centre left in power permanently to become loathed by enough of the population to be voted out in favour of a centre right party.

pblakeney

DonDaddyD wrote:

I could be wrong.

This over-long thread has been worth it for that little nugget on it's own!

Escadrille Ecosse

Saying No to independence is about recognising that regardless of who is sitting in No.10, together we are bigger than the sum of our parts.

Unfortunately and for many reasons, not all of which are misplaced, there significant opinion that making what is left of the UK (and we'll need to think about that title too) worse off is compensation enough for being worse off ourselves.

As that pesky Frenchman Charles de Gaulle said, "patriotism is when love of your own people comes first; nationalism, when hate for people other than your own comes first."

YIMan

Broono83 wrote:

G
I can't see a majority of Scots voting Yes, especially with the media reporting we have to endure, but hopefully further devolution will come. We have to do something to change this society of obscene wealth for the ruling class and abject poverty for so many. Tory voters in Scotland could have meetings in a phone box yet many of the most important powers are decided by a bunch of millionaires who couldn't give 2 sh1ts what goes on outside the M25 unless it's going to affect their bank accounts.

A) It is not just "Scots" who get to vote, nor presumably stay in Scotland were it to become independent it's "the people who live in Scotland (currently). So significant numbers of non-Scots UK-ers "who live in Scotland" get to vote and significant numbers of "Scots" don't get to vote.

Much of the UK could say the same about being intra-M25 rule and I believe would feel let down by the selfishness of "the people who live in Scotland" (you'll note I don't say "the Scots"), using fairly ancient historical borders as a reason to go off on their own. I'm alright Jock (or Jack if you happen to be an English person living in Scotland) and all that.

The whole thing is morally unsavoury and practically unmanageable in my opinion.

First.Aspect

Aberdeen_lune wrote:

Great to see you guys have swallowed the political rhetoric hook line and sinker. The statements yesterday were given for one purpose only to try to scare the Scots into voting no. There isn't much logic behind these statements it is all political rhetoric.

At the end of the day I won't be scared off by the negative campaign of the No parties. All their statements have been about why Scotland can't make a go of it as an Independant country. I have heard almost nothing about the positive aspects of staying in the UK.

I don't see why Scotland can't be a strong little Independant country within the EU. I would be quite happy to have the Euro as our currency and the ability to decide on our own goverment. Not much to ask is it for a country to have their own autonomy.

Thats quite presumptuous isn't? That we've somehow been duped into our views. I wouldn't have any objection to independence if I'd be in any way better off. I suppose Scotland could be better off in a generation or two, anything is possible, but I only have one life.
If I might venture to suggest, you seem to be only of what I hope is a minority who appear to want independence for reasons which are mostly of principle rather than practicality. I doubt there is anything anyone could say which would change your view. Who have you been duped by?

Broono83

YIMan wrote:

Broono83 wrote:

G
I can't see a majority of Scots voting Yes, especially with the media reporting we have to endure, but hopefully further devolution will come. We have to do something to change this society of obscene wealth for the ruling class and abject poverty for so many. Tory voters in Scotland could have meetings in a phone box yet many of the most important powers are decided by a bunch of millionaires who couldn't give 2 sh1ts what goes on outside the M25 unless it's going to affect their bank accounts.

A) It is not just "Scots" who get to vote, nor presumably stay in Scotland were it to become independent it's "the people who live in Scotland (currently). So significant numbers of non-Scots UK-ers "who live in Scotland" get to vote and significant numbers of "Scots" don't get to vote.

Much of the UK could say the same about being intra-M25 rule and I believe would feel let down by the selfishness of "the people who live in Scotland" (you'll note I don't say "the Scots"), using fairly ancient historical borders as a reason to go off on their own. I'm alright Jock (or Jack if you happen to be an English person living in Scotland) and all that.

The whole thing is morally unsavoury and practically unmanageable in my opinion.

I take your point for part A it wasn't my intention to misrepresent. There will be many nationalities voting not just people from the UK, I just hope those voting have done their own research into which way they will vote rather than swallow the state run media line.

As for part B," you can't try to better yourselves because what about us?" If that was everyone's attitude we'd never have progress in anything. Hopefully a change for Scotland would spur neglected electorate in the rest of the UK into action.

aberdeen_lune

First Aspect wrote:

Aberdeen_lune wrote:

Great to see you guys have swallowed the political rhetoric hook line and sinker. The statements yesterday were given for one purpose only to try to scare the Scots into voting no. There isn't much logic behind these statements it is all political rhetoric.

At the end of the day I won't be scared off by the negative campaign of the No parties. All their statements have been about why Scotland can't make a go of it as an Independant country. I have heard almost nothing about the positive aspects of staying in the UK.

I don't see why Scotland can't be a strong little Independant country within the EU. I would be quite happy to have the Euro as our currency and the ability to decide on our own goverment. Not much to ask is it for a country to have their own autonomy.

Thats quite presumptuous isn't? That we've somehow been duped into our views. I wouldn't have any objection to independence if I'd be in any way better off. I suppose Scotland could be better off in a generation or two, anything is possible, but I only have one life.
If I might venture to suggest, you seem to be only of what I hope is a minority who appear to want independence for reasons which are mostly of principle rather than practicality. I doubt there is anything anyone could say which would change your view. Who have you been duped by?

I've not been persuaded by any political party. My decision has been made by careful consideration of the pros and cons not by political dogma.

YIMan

Broono83 wrote:

YIMan wrote:

Broono83 wrote:

G
I can't see a majority of Scots voting Yes, especially with the media reporting we have to endure, but hopefully further devolution will come. We have to do something to change this society of obscene wealth for the ruling class and abject poverty for so many. Tory voters in Scotland could have meetings in a phone box yet many of the most important powers are decided by a bunch of millionaires who couldn't give 2 sh1ts what goes on outside the M25 unless it's going to affect their bank accounts.

A) It is not just "Scots" who get to vote, nor presumably stay in Scotland were it to become independent it's "the people who live in Scotland (currently). So significant numbers of non-Scots UK-ers "who live in Scotland" get to vote and significant numbers of "Scots" don't get to vote.

Much of the UK could say the same about being intra-M25 rule and I believe would feel let down by the selfishness of "the people who live in Scotland" (you'll note I don't say "the Scots"), using fairly ancient historical borders as a reason to go off on their own. I'm alright Jock (or Jack if you happen to be an English person living in Scotland) and all that.

The whole thing is morally unsavoury and practically unmanageable in my opinion.

I take your point for part A it wasn't my intention to misrepresent. There will be many nationalities voting not just people from the UK, I just hope those voting have done their own research into which way they will vote rather than swallow the state run media line.

As for part B," you can't try to better yourselves because what about us?" If that was everyone's attitude we'd never have progress in anything. Hopefully a change for Scotland would spur neglected electorate in the rest of the UK into action.

Let me get this right, you don't like "those lot within the M25" bettering their selfish interests at others expense but when it comes to "the people that happen to currently live in Scotland" doing it, you're quite happy.

Oh the irony!

Can you please explain how it is going to "spur the neglected electorate into action"? By fragmenting the "neglected electorate" the "people that live in Scotland" are putting the rest of them in a much worse position.

Broono83

No you're not getting it right. I don't have an issue with the people anywhere. I do have an issue with the self serving politicians at Westminster. It's my opinion thatt Scotland could do a much better job running our own affairs.

There seems to be a lot of anger and resentment about the possibility of Scotland becoming independent, I'd dare anyone to read the comments section on any BBC story about it. You can't expect people to vote against something because it might negatively affect people in another country. If the people of England or anywhere else doesn't like their government they should do something about it. We have our chance and you think we should vote based on what's best for the rest of the UK?

Broono83

No you're not getting it right. I don't have an issue with the people anywhere. I do have an issue with the self serving politicians at Westminster. It's my opinion thatt Scotland could do a much better job running our own affairs.

There seems to be a lot of anger and resentment about the possibility of Scotland becoming independent, I'd dare anyone to read the comments section on any BBC story about it. You can't expect people to vote against something because it might negatively affect people in another country. If the people of England or anywhere else doesn't like their government they should do something about it. We have our chance and you think we should vote based on what's best for the rest of the UK?

YIMan

Broono83 wrote:

No you're not getting it right. I don't have an issue with the people anywhere. I do have an issue with the self serving politicians at Westminster. It's my opinion thatt Scotland could do a much better job running our own affairs.

There seems to be a lot of anger and resentment about the possibility of Scotland becoming independent, I'd dare anyone to read the comments section on any BBC story about it. You can't expect people to vote against something because it might negatively affect people in another country. If the people of England or anywhere else doesn't like their government they should do something about it. We have our chance and you think we should vote based on what's best for the rest of the UK?

I do have it right.

You were talking about people who couldn't give two shoots about what goes on outside the M25, and to counteract this you want to break away from the rest of the UK because you don't give two shoots about what goes on outside Scotland. Inner-M25, independent Scotland...same selfishness.