Friday Thread: If Scotland vote YES will TWH have to leave?

DonDaddyD

Well, if Scotland gain independance will Tailwindhome and the other Scots have to leave this website and will Bikeradar provide its very own Scotish Bikeradar? (I think this place has its own American version, which us Brits can't see)...

Also, do we want Scotland to leave, what will that mean for the rest of us?

jonginge

Bit harsh asking the Irish to leave

rjsterry

Quite.

More research needed DDD.

Kieran_Burns

God I hate that film.

PBo

DonDaddyD wrote:

Well, if Scotland gain independance will Tailwindhome and the other Scots have to leave this website and will Bikeradar provide its very own Scotish Bikeradar? (I think this place has its own American version, which us Brits can't see)...

Also, do we want Scotland to leave, what will that mean for the rest of us?

sorry, I'm not going to answer - you didn't write "discuss!"

rolf_f

I'll consider answering but I need to know in advance what opinions it will be acceptable to express.

aberdeen_lune

Don't worry we will let you visit for a holiday, as long as your spending your hard earned.

Monkeypump

PBo wrote:

DonDaddyD wrote:

Well, if Scotland gain independance will Tailwindhome and the other Scots have to leave this website and will Bikeradar provide its very own Scotish Bikeradar? (I think this place has its own American version, which us Brits can't see)...

Also, do we want Scotland to leave, what will that mean for the rest of us?

sorry, I'm not going to answer - you didn't write "discuss!"

and

Rolf F wrote:

I'll consider answering but I need to know in advance what opinions it will be acceptable to express.

First.Aspect

Its a good question. The short answer is "maybe". I have been singularly unimpressed by the calibre of politicians up here. In short, if you have an talent or aspirations, you are an MP, not an MSP. I am gravely concerned that minor details such as what money we will use, or how much of it there will be, being left as they are to the half hour or so after the results are in by our esteemed elected representatives, will result in some degree of chaos.

People would stay or go depending on their personal ability to do so, obviously, but also on whether they were personally better or less well off. Scottish politics is fundamentally left wing. Post independence, however, the SNP will make clumsy overtures to business. In order to make the sums add up (admittedly not an SNP strong point) this means either (a) no public services (b) higher taxes (c) both. If (b) or (c) the decision to leave would depend on whether your employer would keep you in the manner to which you are accustomed, or whether you would be better off by leaving. I work for a firm with offices in the rest of the UK. I think it would be hard for them to retain staff who could earn more 2 hours' drive away. But they'd try. So, I can't see any other outcome other than being worse off. If you work for a Scottish company, you'd definitely be worse off.

In that case, I'd leave. If I had any equity left in my house, that is, after the colossal plunge in house prices.

The Rookie

Kieran_Burns wrote:

God I hate that film.

As a film it was OK, as trying to some sort of historical note it was a total fabrication, although not as bad as his American war of Independence 'sequel', a classic case of pandering to an audiences blinkered beliefs.

As for Scotland, I give it 5 years from Independence before the whole country makes RBS look like it was a financially stable business!

Can someone remind Alex Salmond that he was originally going to fund an independent Scotland based off it's strong financial sector just like Iceland and Ireland did so succes......oh......now he's pinning his hopes on oil (but not his maths).....which will be his next giant redwood sized pit prop? Hi agenda seems to be an independent Scotland at any price (to everyone else) and I pity the poor soles that will be stuck under that crumbling edifice.

roger_merriman

How money is spent is the fundamental part of politics, even by politic standards it's rather confused affaire. I can see why the Scottish would find independence or at least some distance from Westminster, but this does not seem well thought out.

unixnerd

Scotland is ruled from Westminster, yet the tories only got 14% of the vote at the last elections here (and the Liberals even less). So we've rejected the tories. But down south many people don't think the tories are right wing enough so something like 25% of them voted UKIP! This has moved tory policy to the right to get their votes back. You can see why Scots worry about the future, being ruled by administration who's values are alien to the majority of Scots.

If it hadn't been for Maggie Thatcher this vote would never have happened. Like her or loath her you can't deny she alienated most Scots, and we cant risk England electing someone like her again. I don't think the country will vote yes, I think it'll be about 40%. But if anyone can swing it Alec can. It's a shame it's come to the point where so many folk want to split, nationalism isn't always a healthy thing and there are some advantages to sticking together.

By the way, if we do vote yes where would you like us to post your Trident missiles to?

First.Aspect

When I used to come here as a boy, around peak-Thatcher, the support for the nationalist voice seemed greater. There was more overt anti-English sentiment.

Since I've lived here, I've felt little or none of it.

Since devolution, are we really ruled be Westminster? I would argue that Scoltand is less ruled by Westminster than most other parts of the UK. If you live in Manchester, or Durham, or Penzance, you live some distance from the centre of UK politics, you may have a local labour or lib dem majority but a tory government, but you don't have any local devolved parliament. Look at it in detail and you see that most of the decisions which affect you day to day are decided in Holyrood. The big things they don't have are control over interest rates, national taxes (they do over council tax) or defence. For my part I don't want them to have control over these things. They aren't sufficiently competent.

As for things like trident, nuclear power stations and so forth. Well, the truth is, they'd stay where they are, servicing the rest of the UK. Take defence installations, for example. Firstly, they wouldn't leave because they provide important employment in some parts of Scotland. Secondly, the model exists in lots of places for UK (i.e. the remaining part thereof) military bases within foreign countries. In at least the medium term, this would be the case, because the infrastructure is there and frankly, Scotland would need the money.

All of which makes me question the need to change things in the first place.

aberdeen_lune

Advantages:
Get rid of nuclear weapons.
Get rid of a tier of government freeloading on taxpayers funds.
Stop Scottish soldiers being sent to fight illegitimate wars.
No chance of a Tory government.
No chance of a UKIP MP.
Ability to set up a fiscal regime to suit the Scottish economy.
Ability to set up an immigration policy to suit Scotland's business and educational needs.

Disadvantages.
Need to negotiate terms with the European Union.
Need to negotiate terms of a currency union.
Higher borrowing costs.

I will be voting yes. Does not mean I don't like the rest of the UK.

unixnerd

Ability to set up an immigration policy to suit Scotland's business and educational needs.

I think that's a big difference. Our immigration minister is actually a muslim and we've been trying to close the Dunvegal detention centre for years, but it's outside our government's powers. We have a skills shortage in Scotland, especially in the engineering sector where it's causing big problems and there are loads of unfilled jobs. I work with a few engineers who've moved to Scotland from all over the world and we could use many more of them. Forgeign students have recently been finding it much harder to get into Scotland and that's not right.

meanredspider

unixnerd wrote:

Ability to set up an immigration policy to suit Scotland's business and educational needs.

I think that's a big difference. Our immigration minister is actually a muslim and we've been trying to close the Dunvegal detention centre for years, but it's outside our government's powers. We have a skills shortage in Scotland, especially in the engineering sector where it's causing big problems and there are loads of unfilled jobs. I work with a few engineers who've moved to Scotland from all over the world and we could use many more of them. Forgeign students have recently been finding it much harder to get into Scotland and that's not right.

I don't really understand that: in Inverness I personally hired 2 Indians, a Mexican and an American. In my office, there were plenty of Chinese, Americans, etc etc And, let's face it, we struggled to get Scots to come to Inverness from the central belt. I haven't actually met (face-to-face) a Scot that thinks independence is a good idea and quite a few (local small and medium sized) business owners who think it's insanity. I, personally, think independence just an emotional response rather than a hard-nosed rational one.

aberdeen_lune

For Scotland's economy to grow we need a high level of skilled immigrants. The Tory government has a net migration target to meet and doe sent care how it gets the numbers down. It's not rocket science obviously it's not helping our economy.

unixnerd

Aberdeen_lune is correct. I work four days a week in Aberdeen and business is booming, more active than at any point in the 23 years I've worked there. New offices being built all over the place and hotels booked out over a month in advance. What a lot of folk down south might not realize is that under half the work is North Sea, the rest is in Africa, Brazil, Autralia, etc. The renewable energy industry (which our government is totally committed to) is trying to recruit from the same pool of engineers too.

I read that Scotland needs 120,000 engineering graduates over the next ten years - just for the oil business and renewables; that's not counting the rest of the economy. So you can see why we value free university places. The UK can only ever work as a knowledge and specialist manufacturing economy, so putting folk off studying is madness.

BelgianBeerGeek

Aberdeen_lune wrote:

Advantages:
Get rid of nuclear weapons.
Get rid of a tier of government freeloading on taxpayers funds.
Stop Scottish soldiers being sent to fight illegitimate wars.
No chance of a Tory government.
No chance of a UKIP MP.
Ability to set up a fiscal regime to suit the Scottish economy.
Ability to set up an immigration policy to suit Scotland's business and educational needs.

Disadvantages.
Need to negotiate terms with the European Union.
Need to negotiate terms of a currency union.
Higher borrowing costs.

I will be voting yes. Does not mean I don't like the rest of the UK.

Scottish soldiers? Who are they? Anyone joining HM Forces swears allegiance to the Queen (heirs & successors etc), not President Salmond. I guess you would have to ask them individually if they wouldn't mind signing off from the army and re-joining the Scottish Defence Force, or whatever it might call itself.

aberdeen_lune

President Salmon wow. I think you've mixed me up with an SNP supporter. It's not about political parties it's about independence. It's amazing how some people get the basics mixed up.

unixnerd

Scottish soldiers? Who are they?

Maybe you should ask a few. Please post the results on YouTube, I suspect they dislike being insulted like that.

roger_merriman

unixnerd wrote:

Scottish soldiers? Who are they?

Maybe you should ask a few. Please post the results on YouTube, I suspect they dislike being insulted like that.

They are Scottish but the assumption that they would want to leave the MOD to be in the Scottish army, is by no means sure. It would be a smaller less interesting operation and solders do tend to like to well do what they trained to do.

Let alone the number of jobs that rely on the MOD be that ships built on the Clyde or whatever. There are a lot of assumptions

unixnerd

Frankly I doubt Scotland needs more than some para-military police for anti-terrorist duties and the small fleet of about a half dozen fisheries protection ships it already has. The UK gov is privatising the search and rescue soon, or at least that was the plan. I fail to see why Scotland needs to spend money on an army in this day and age, we've already fought in more than our fair share of wars.

As for ship building have you seen the size of the Navy lately? They've wasted all their money on carriers they can't afford to deploy or protect.

roger_merriman

unixnerd wrote:

Frankly I doubt Scotland needs more than some para-military police for anti-terrorist duties and the small fleet of about a half dozen fisheries protection ships it already has. The UK gov is privatising the search and rescue soon, or at least that was the plan. I fail to see why Scotland needs to spend money on an army in this day and age, we've already fought in more than our fair share of wars.

As for ship building have you seen the size of the Navy lately? They've wasted all their money on carriers they can't afford to deploy or protect.

That is a fair job loss, scotland has a fair number of job that rely on the MOD close to 13,000 is quoted I'm sure that Portsmouth would welcome the jobs of building the type 26.

unixnerd

A lot of those would find work in other industries, as I mentioned earlier we have a skills shortage here. Plus the country would be able to divert defence funding to further education, the health service, capital projects, etc.

meanredspider

Aberdeen_lune wrote:

For Scotland's economy to grow we need a high level of skilled immigrants. The Tory government has a net migration target to meet and doe sent care how it gets the numbers down. It's not rocket science obviously it's not helping our economy.

The first thing Scotland needs is the businesses - with all of the uncertainty this whole malarky is creating, that's the last thing it's going to create. And, yes, Aberdeen is a hotspot of activity but fails to retain the skills they have got: two of my highly-experienced Scottish neighbours have emigrated to bizarre foreign climbs. Same goes for doctors: there are 5 consultants from Raigmore in my village - not a single Scot amongst them. If you can't keep your own skilled people in a country, then moaning about immigration (which I think, from my own experience, is a red herring anyway) is a bit rich. Same goes for me - I get a big tax break in NL because my skills are so hard to come by: Scotland had nothing to offer me - so little business.

aberdeen_lune

meanredspider wrote:

Aberdeen_lune wrote:

For Scotland's economy to grow we need a high level of skilled immigrants. The Tory government has a net migration target to meet and doe sent care how it gets the numbers down. It's not rocket science obviously it's not helping our economy.

The first thing Scotland needs is the businesses - with all of the uncertainty this whole malarky is creating, that's the last thing it's going to create. And, yes, Aberdeen is a hotspot of activity but fails to retain the skills they have got: two of my highly-experienced Scottish neighbours have emigrated to bizarre foreign climbs. Same goes for doctors: there are 5 consultants from Raigmore in my village - not a single Scot amongst them. If you can't keep your own skilled people in a country, then moaning about immigration (which I think, from my own experience, is a red herring anyway) is a bit rich. Same goes for me - I get a big tax break in NL because my skills are so hard to come by: Scotland had nothing to offer me - so little business.

There's a lot of sense in what your saying here. Yes lots of Scots have headed off around the world seeking better prospects. The result up until a few years ago was a falling population and a huge percentage of retired folk. Only in the last few years has the population started to grow with the new EU rules on worker mobility. If we want to continue to encourage more skilled workers to settle in Scotland then we need the power to make decisions based on our particular requirements. The UKBA directed by the conservatives who are in fear of a UKIP backlash are never going to make the right decisions for Scotland. You are right however we need the businesses in Scotland in the first place and part of that is having the right economic factors and the availability of a skilled workforce.

roger_merriman

unixnerd wrote:

A lot of those would find work in other industries, as I mentioned earlier we have a skills shortage here. Plus the country would be able to divert defence funding to further education, the health service, capital projects, etc.

Changing careers is not a easy job, there is no guarantee they have the skill set for other jobs else where.

In terms of defense Scotland builds the lions share of ships etc, that is a fair amount of cash coming in, I'd not guarantee that Scotland would be better off by any means I suspect that the amount Scotland spends on defense is less than they get from the contracts, bare in mind each Aircraft carrier costs over 3bn which is a shade over what Scotland was planning on spending as a whole, plus the type 26's as a replacement of the type 23's and so on.

that is a fair old wodge of cash that is unlikely to remain coming Scotlands way

meanredspider

Aberdeen_lune wrote:

There's a lot of sense in what your saying here. Yes lots of Scots have headed off around the world seeking better prospects. The result up until a few years ago was a falling population and a huge percentage of retired folk. Only in the last few years has the population started to grow with the new EU rules on worker mobility. If we want to continue to encourage more skilled workers to settle in Scotland then we need the power to make decisions based on our particular requirements. The UKBA directed by the conservatives who are in fear of a UKIP backlash are never going to make the right decisions for Scotland. You are right however we need the businesses in Scotland in the first place and part of that is having the right economic factors and the availability of a skilled workforce.

You're not really following a coherent argument here: you want to compensate for all the Scots leaving Scotland by throwing open the country to all-comers? My wife often says, in response to the whole Braveheart thing, "If Scotland's so great, why do so many Scots leave?" It's a very fair question. Beyond that, the pool of European labour is massive and the UK economy is beginning to look very bright. If businesses in Scotland can't retain Scots or attract enough Europeans, that suggests there's something far more fundamental wrong than just immigration rules. And I bet the independence debate is very counterproductive - industry nervous about investing and immigrants nervous about committing to a country that might suddenly be a lot more unpredictable and shaky.

aberdeen_lune

Fair point MRS. So why do so many Scots leave? Could it be that being classed as a provincial region of the UK results in less investment and a lack of incentives to promote business so remote from the south.

With independence a Scottish government could concentrate on creating the right environment for business to thrive in Scotland. They wouldn't be hindered by the lack of power that our current devolved government has.

meanredspider

Aberdeen_lune wrote:

Fair point MRS. So why do so many Scots leave? Could it be that being classed as a provincial region of the UK results in less investment and a lack of incentives to promote business so remote from the south.

With independence a Scottish government could concentrate on creating the right environment for business to thrive in Scotland. They wouldn't be hindered by the lack of power that our current devolved government has.

I just think that's an excuse. It's no different to pretty much any other part of the UK outside the South East of England. And Salmond has already indicated he wants to keep the pound: Scotland will just be hostage to what the rest of the UK needs with the Bank of England no longer giving a stuff about the issues it might cause in Scotland regardless of the politics of Westminster. And one effect of Scottish independence is that Westminster will shift right since Scotland doesn't exactly return a lot of Tories.