Giro Stage 10 - Spoiler thread

danlikesbikes

Getting this one started early as am quite excited, sad I know but apart from ATOC having withdrawal issues.

Stage is from Cordenons to Altopiano del Montasio, 167 km with 2 Cat 1 climbs. Have the profile & the final part which gives a better breakdown of the gradients & a nice photo of the final from the bottom.

Will try & get some more photos of the start but have to be somewhere in the morning so might miss it.

Weather is going to be key to this one & not really sure what to expect clear & warm to start with wind and possibly rain but looks like a low chance of rain.

Also a good review of the stage & possible contenders - http://c-cycling.blogspot.cz/2013/05/gi ... rites.html
Plus the GCN preview of the stage - http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=pl ... cmHiRqEhi4

kleinstroker

Good man! Yesterday went very slowly with no stage, spent a lot of time actually working which did me no good at all!

I heard Degenkolb shot his load last week and has pulled out from today, obviously that tache has been severely affecting his aerodynamic performance and he has spent too much energy compensating for it.

LeicesterLad

MASSIVE stage for Wiggins today - more so for the tricky descent than the climbing. And Hesjedal looks to have popped on the steep stuff, so a big test for him too.

milton50

I love the Giro. We've had more twists and turns than in the whole of last year's Tour and we haven't even hit the proper mountains yet.

It will be interesting to see what Sky try and do today. Will they come out full on, ride on the front and try and ride Nibali off Wiggins' wheel like they did at Peyragudes in the Tour? Or, given the steepness of the climb, will they just settle for keeping the group together today and trying to take time out of Evans and Nibali on Saturday or on the Galibier?

danlikesbikes

Looking like it could be an epic day today, weather suggests less chance of rain but who knows.

The climbs are;
Passo Cason di Lanza 12,3km long, 8,5% average, 16% max
Altopiano del Montasio, 10.9km 7.9% average, 20% max

First Cat 1 ascent is tough but the descent looks horrible, patchy, sketchy, difficult, fast pick your word but could be decisive if Wiggins lets a gap go and the team have to chase on like Sunday. Final climb looks like a beast & think we can be sure that Nibbs will not make it easy for Wiggins or any of the other GC guys, unless a breakaway forms in which case think they will be happy to let them take the stage and the seconds offered on the line.

Crozza

what I really want to see is Bradley perform a modern-day re-enactment of that famous Indurain clip, where he just sits there and rides everybody off his wheel. first Ryder, then Gesink, then Cuddles, then Nibs will try and hold his wheel, then shake their heads as they are shelled like peas....

seems my first coffee of the day is well overdue

danlikesbikes

Crozza wrote:

what I really want to see is Bradley perform a modern-day re-enactment of that famous Indurain clip, where he just sits there and rides everybody off his wheel. first Ryder, then Gesink, then Cuddles, then Nibs will try and hold his wheel, then shake their heads as they are shelled like peas....

seems my first coffee of the day is well overdue

No what you want to see is him do that on the first climb then make all the other GC teams chase back on only for him to repeat it on the final climb. Now think its time for a double espresso for me too!

above_the_cows

Danlikesbikes wrote:

No what you want to see is him do that on the first climb then make all the other GC teams chase back on only for him to repeat it on the final climb. Now think its time for a double espresso for me too!

That would be epic! I've just brewed a big pot of coffee (Italian of course) if anyone fancies any.

I am going to miss the end of this stage unless they finish by 16:45.

Some of those ramps look molto, molto brutale.

Richmond Racer

Its a day for confidence rebuilding for Brad. That may be just making it down that descent without much time loss and finishing in the main GC front group.

There's bugger all flat road to chase back on from that long descent before the road rises up.

danlikesbikes

Above The Cows wrote:

Danlikesbikes wrote:

No what you want to see is him do that on the first climb then make all the other GC teams chase back on only for him to repeat it on the final climb. Now think its time for a double espresso for me too!

That would be epic! I've just brewed a big pot of coffee (Italian of course) if anyone fancies any.

I am going to miss the end of this stage unless they finish by 16:45.

Some of those ramps look molto, molto brutale.

Think race schedule has them in at around 16:14 GMT but who knows what schedule they will ride too

maddog 2

As Dan Lloyd says, I suspect Sky will keep the pace high on the lower slopes, to shell out any hangers-on, then it'll all explode on the 20% ramp with 4km to go, with Brad getting gapped by the strongest, tiniest men and losing half a minute or so.

danlikesbikes

Just saw this - http://www.cyclingweekly.co.uk/news/lat ... tains.html

Sky management refuted rumours on Saturday that Wiggins was ill. But the Tour de France champion did confirm yesterday he was managing a cold and tendonitis although stressed neither were affecting his performances on the bike.

Might explain a lot then, so not ill (as in other team members) but under the weather. Good news I guess as long as the cold can be managed out, think what he will be like in a few days at 100%

above_the_cows

Richmond Racer wrote:

Its a day for confidence rebuilding for Brad. That may be just making it down that descent without much time loss and finishing in the main GC front group.

There's bugger all flat road to chase back on from that long descent before the road rises up.

Putting my pragmatic head back on, I think this is the likely scenario. It really would be a disaster if Wiggins loses contact on the descent enough that no amount of superior/improved climbing/diesel ability gets him back to the front.

Danlikesbikes wrote:

Think race schedule has them in at around 16:14 GMT but who knows what schedule they will ride too

I'm CET so I'll be in a meeting by then. I'm basically going to miss the last climb.

danlikesbikes

Richmond Racer wrote:

Its a day for confidence rebuilding for Brad. That may be just making it down that descent without much time loss and finishing in the main GC front group.

There's bugger all flat road to chase back on from that long descent before the road rises up.

But the descent appears in 2 halves though, the first being the bonkers farm track sections, but after that there is 10k's of downhill through the valley that looks more suited to a chase back & then into the bottom of the valley. Though the little bump before the second Cat 1 could do him in after all we saw the team bring him back and him struggle a bit to recover from the effort.

Richmond Racer

Danlikesbikes wrote:

Richmond Racer wrote:

Its a day for confidence rebuilding for Brad. That may be just making it down that descent without much time loss and finishing in the main GC front group.

There's bugger all flat road to chase back on from that long descent before the road rises up.

But the descent appears in 2 halves though, the first being the bonkers farm track sections, but after that there is 10k's of downhill through the valley that looks more suited to a chase back & then into the bottom of the valley. Though the little bump before the second Cat 1 could do him in after all we saw the team bring him back and him struggle a bit to recover from the effort.

OK, so if someone's got the yips on descending, they're going to be great for a mental chase back on on a descent? Not sure about that line of thought.

danlikesbikes

Richmond Racer wrote:

Danlikesbikes wrote:

Richmond Racer wrote:

Its a day for confidence rebuilding for Brad. That may be just making it down that descent without much time loss and finishing in the main GC front group.

There's bugger all flat road to chase back on from that long descent before the road rises up.

But the descent appears in 2 halves though, the first being the bonkers farm track sections, but after that there is 10k's of downhill through the valley that looks more suited to a chase back & then into the bottom of the valley. Though the little bump before the second Cat 1 could do him in after all we saw the team bring him back and him struggle a bit to recover from the effort.

OK, so if someone's got the yips on descending, they're going to be great for a mental chase back on on a descent? Not sure about that line of thought.

Maybe you should check the route on the downhill after the climb, I've checked it on google street view (hence me making my post above) & its as I said in 2 halves, so if Nibbs pushes to gap wiggins on the first half the second is pretty low gradient and with a few team mates should be easy the valley road down is OK and once they hit the village of Pontebba they are following the river. So whilst the profile shows a drop is pretty sedate from street level & they have plenty of time to bring him back on. That is my line of thought.

danlikesbikes

People already out waiting for the start of todays stage

Richmond Racer

Danlikesbikes wrote:

Richmond Racer wrote:

Danlikesbikes wrote:

Richmond Racer wrote:

Its a day for confidence rebuilding for Brad. That may be just making it down that descent without much time loss and finishing in the main GC front group.

There's bugger all flat road to chase back on from that long descent before the road rises up.

But the descent appears in 2 halves though, the first being the bonkers farm track sections, but after that there is 10k's of downhill through the valley that looks more suited to a chase back & then into the bottom of the valley. Though the little bump before the second Cat 1 could do him in after all we saw the team bring him back and him struggle a bit to recover from the effort.

OK, so if someone's got the yips on descending, they're going to be great for a mental chase back on on a descent? Not sure about that line of thought.

Maybe you should check the route on the downhill after the climb, I've checked it on google street view (hence me making my post above) & its as I said in 2 halves, so if Nibbs pushes to gap wiggins on the first half the second is pretty low gradient and with a few team mates should be easy the valley road down is OK and once they hit the village of Pontebba they are following the river. So whilst the profile shows a drop is pretty sedate from street level & they have plenty of time to bring him back on. That is my line of thought.

Fair do's - will check it out

edhornby

What's the weather like there? is it going to be dry all day as per that picture above?

if I was DaveB I would have Brad sit on nibbles' wheel for the first climb and descent, make the maglia rosa do some work...

danlikesbikes

Richmond Racer wrote:

Danlikesbikes wrote:

Richmond Racer wrote:

Danlikesbikes wrote:

Richmond Racer wrote:

Its a day for confidence rebuilding for Brad. That may be just making it down that descent without much time loss and finishing in the main GC front group.

There's bugger all flat road to chase back on from that long descent before the road rises up.

But the descent appears in 2 halves though, the first being the bonkers farm track sections, but after that there is 10k's of downhill through the valley that looks more suited to a chase back & then into the bottom of the valley. Though the little bump before the second Cat 1 could do him in after all we saw the team bring him back and him struggle a bit to recover from the effort.

OK, so if someone's got the yips on descending, they're going to be great for a mental chase back on on a descent? Not sure about that line of thought.

Maybe you should check the route on the downhill after the climb, I've checked it on google street view (hence me making my post above) & its as I said in 2 halves, so if Nibbs pushes to gap wiggins on the first half the second is pretty low gradient and with a few team mates should be easy the valley road down is OK and once they hit the village of Pontebba they are following the river. So whilst the profile shows a drop is pretty sedate from street level & they have plenty of time to bring him back on. That is my line of thought.

Fair do's - will check it out

http://maps.google.co.uk/maps?hl=en&tab=wl

Just follow the SP110 south, then onto the SS13. Good looking roads, if you take the Google images too be up to date

Edit: cant get google to post the link correctly, once on google maps just put in "Pontebba, Province of Udine, Italy" and go 1k south to the town/village and you will see the roads

danlikesbikes

edhornby wrote:

What's the weather like there? is it going to be dry all day as per that picture above?

if I was DaveB I would have Brad sit on nibbles' wheel for the first climb and descent, make the maglia rosa do some work...

Weather is changeable is all I know but guess we will know a bit more once we get some 'real time' pics from people up there already.

Think Sky should go get on the front for a bit and make it uncomfortable for Nibbs, but not sure if that will happen if they are trying to save themselves for later on. Never know though it a break does go (to take up the stage seconds) little incentive for Nibbs to ride hard.

Crozza

Danlikesbikes wrote:

But the descent appears in 2 halves though, the first being the bonkers farm track sections, but after that there is 10k's of downhill through the valley that looks more suited to a chase back & then into the bottom of the valley. Though the little bump before the second Cat 1 could do him in after all we saw the team bring him back and him struggle a bit to recover from the effort.

now that I have done a grand total of 3 road races and am expert on these matters, I can say that when faced with a narrow technical descent it is very important to get to the top of the climb first, as it is very difficult for people to overtake on the way down, especially if its damp. Mind you at 85kgs and, *ahem*, "broad", people (especially the novice mamils that I like to test myself against) may find it more difficult to get past me than Sir Bradley

danlikesbikes

Crozza wrote:

Danlikesbikes wrote:

But the descent appears in 2 halves though, the first being the bonkers farm track sections, but after that there is 10k's of downhill through the valley that looks more suited to a chase back & then into the bottom of the valley. Though the little bump before the second Cat 1 could do him in after all we saw the team bring him back and him struggle a bit to recover from the effort.

now that I have done a grand total of 3 road races and am expert on these matters, I can say that when faced with a narrow technical descent it is very important to get to the top of the climb first, as it is very difficult for people to overtake on the way down, especially if its damp. Mind you at 85kgs and, *ahem*, "broad", people (especially the novice mamils that I like to test myself against) may find it more difficult to get past me than Sir Bradley

If Wiggins is with or in front of Nibbs but feeling nervous/roads are damp and he opts to descend like a lightweight (word changed to cause less offence) I doubt that any pro rider would have any issues getting past him on a single car width road if they are going faster than him. Personally I hope that doesn't happen as would prefer to see it being an epic battle to the finish than Wiggins chewing his bars to bring back the leaders at the valley bottom and being spent for the final climb.

danlikesbikes

Team Sky all ready to go

TheBigBean

Can anyone think of a GT where a much fancied GT contender looked out of form at the beginning, and then actually improved and won it?

danlikesbikes

Couple more from the start

knedlicky

Danlikesbikes wrote:

Richmond Racer wrote:

Danlikesbikes wrote:

Richmond Racer wrote:

Its a day for confidence rebuilding for Brad. That may be just making it down that descent without much time loss and finishing in the main GC front group.
There's bugger all flat road to chase back on from that long descent before the road rises up.

But the descent appears in 2 halves though, the first being the bonkers farm track sections, but after that there is 10k's of downhill through the valley that looks more suited to a chase back & then into the bottom of the valley.

OK, so if someone's got the yips on descending, they're going to be great for a mental chase back on on a descent? Not sure about that line of thought.

… if Nibbs pushes to gap wiggins on the first half the second is pretty low gradient and with a few team mates should be easy the valley road down is OK and once they hit the village of Pontebba they are following the river.

I think you’re looking optimistically at the amount of chase space if Wiggins were to be dropped by a considerable margin on the climb up the Passo Cason di Lanza and the first part of that descent - it isn’t until they get past Studena Bassa that the road is suitable for a chase to close any gap, which gives them at most 15 km before the beginning of the next climb.

But I also don’t think Nibali will intentionally try and drop Wiggins (or others) on the first climb.

knedlicky

Danlikesbikes wrote:

Crozza wrote:

... when faced with a narrow technical descent it is very important to get to the top of the climb first, as it is very difficult for people to overtake on the way down

If Wiggins is with or in front of Nibbs but feeling nervous/roads are damp and he opts to descend like a lightweight (word changed to cause less offence) I doubt that any pro rider would have any issues getting past him

The problem might not be people trying to get past Wiggins, but if Wiggins is dropped on the climb, and has regained some descending confidence, him trying to get past others.

knedlicky

Pellizotti might try something today, especially on the first climb because (as Dan’s C-Cycling link mentions) his family comes from the area. The link doesn’t say exactly where but it’s from Paularo, which they ride through after about 100 km and more or less where the first climb begins.

Like others, I think there is bound to be an attack about 4 km from the finish, where there’s about 1.5 km of average 12.5%. Maybe by someone like Pozzovivo if not one of the main GC contenders - although I’d also be surprised if the GC men all stayed more or less together to the finish.

If there are a couple of unlit tunnels shortly before the steep section, as reported, maybe in one of them might also be a good place for someone who’s familiarised himself with the road to attack?

I’d like to see some tactical moves by the teams with a couple of well-placed riders (so Astana, Sky, Lampre, maybe Blanco too), using their next-best-placed men. I think the terrain of the climbs on this stage is more suited for that sort of thing than the more open landscape on the Galibier or Stelvio, where the overview of what’s happening is easier.

Richmond Racer

Fascinated to see how Ryder goes today

danlikesbikes

knedlicky wrote:

The problem might not be people trying to get past Wiggins, but if Wiggins is dropped on the climb, and has regained some descending confidence, him trying to get past others.

Really you can't see a pro rider overtaking on a descent. Personally I don't see any issue in overtaking on a descent if your going faster than someone in front of you.