Wiggins - Dark Horse

tremayne

I know I know - plenty of comment elsewhere..... But having watched the clip on 'teamsky-fanboy' I'm so excited by his Vuelta prospects I felt it was worth a special mention.

In short - seeing him still so 'sticky thin' and watching that absolutely amazingly fluid pedalling style, I just feel certain he's managed to remain at very top level. I defy anyone to watch him bombing along on that TT machine and not be deeply moved by just how effortless he makes it look. His technique is incredible.

That alone won't do it, I know this - but I happen to think that also being able to say 'look - I haven't raced for X weeks' or ' look, I'm in fair form but am still re-building after my crash' will work hugely in his advantage. I think he's exactly the sort of individual who needs pressure and expectation reduced in the way that is currently the case.

As such, I think he is much more of a contender than he's letting slip. I think we are in for a treat, I really do.

I guess laying down a huge result this side of 'the arrival' won't hurt either.

LeicesterLad

What Anton like at a TT? If he's half decent, Wiggins is screwed.

squired

Surely the concern is that the mountains in the Vuelta won't suit a rider like Bradley as much as those in the Tour. He seems to cope well with gradients up to around 7%, but when he hits 20% gradients he could be found wanting. It would be good to see him get a decent result though and place in the top 10.

Two that I'm more interested in are Nico Roche and Dan Martin. Nico has had a disasterous season, so it would be great to see him place well. Dan seems like a rider who gives every last ounce of energy he has, as well as being willing to attack.

In fact, if all three could place in the top 10 I'd be extremely happy!

LeicesterLad

I too would love to see Dan and Nico do something, infact i think the Vuelta suits a rider like Martin much better than Wiggins.

nferrar

Aye like squired said, some of the climbs are just too steep at the Vuelta for Wiggins' trick or getting time in the TT and hanging on in the mountains to work. Still, I hope he does have a good ride as was a shame not to see him be able to use his form in the TdF

tremayne

Understand fully all the concerns regarding our man and the near vertical ascents. The concerns are valid - as in the past, this has proved a stumbling point.

However, and yes I'm biased - but visually he looks nothing like the Wiggins who coudln't quite stick with the big boys on the really steep bits of the tour last year. This years Wiggins looks like a very different beast. Just looks I know - but I think he's upped his game for the hills. (possibly at the expense of a second or so on the TT)

rick_chasey

He'll get pwned.

(I recon).

inkyfingers

I think he'll do OK, in the top 10 probably, maybe close to top 5 if he does a really good TT. On this course I think that would be a great result for him.

incog24

I reckon he'll not lose a huge amount of time in the first week, take the leaders jersey in the TT, and then progressively lose a minute here and there and fade out of contention over the rest of the race.

jibberjim

squired wrote:

Two that I'm more interested in are Nico Roche and Dan Martin. Nico has had a disasterous season, so it would be great to see him place well.

Has he given any reason for his atrocious - compared to previous years - form? injuries or something, as it looks pretty suspicious in what appears to be a much cleaner year of cycling than before that he's so far off the pace?

dougzz

jibberjim wrote:

Has he given any reason for his atrocious - compared to previous years - form? injuries or something, as it looks pretty suspicious in what appears to be a much cleaner year of cycling than before that he's so far off the pace?

Maybe the apple didn't fall too far from the tree

Turfle

I don't think it's necessarily the steepness of climbs that hurts Brad, it's more when a really hard climb is followed by another really hard climb. Three really hard climbs and he's in trouble.

I haven't looked too much at the profiles yet, so not sure how the toughest stages are set out. If I remember rightly the Angliru isn't preceded by anything too hurtful.

RichN95.

Turfle wrote:

I don't think it's necessarily the steepness of climbs that hurts Brad, it's more when a really hard climb is followed by another really hard climb. Three really hard climbs and he's in trouble.

I haven't looked too much at the profiles yet, so not sure how the toughest stages are set out. If I remember rightly the Angliru isn't preceded by anything too hurtful.

Stages 14 and 15 would appear to be the toughest in that sense (15 being the Angliru). Neither are really like the big stages of the Tour or Giro.

ozzzyosborn206

i think he will ride into form and i think that is better than hitting a grand tour flying and trying to hold it for 3 weeks, also it is not the tdf and the best grand tour riders, AC and AS are not there so this will give him more chance, personally i think he is better off aiming for spain or italy rather than france especially if cav is going to sky, as no matter what they say both riders need a whole team behind them to reach their potential. But yeah would be good to see him Nico and Dan M do good rides

Turfle

The Angliru stage is tougher than I remembered. The Alto del Cordal is a very tough climb before it.

Just looking through the profiles now, and I'm slightly more optimistic about Wiggins getting a good top 5 finish.

squired

jibberjim wrote:

squired wrote:

Two that I'm more interested in are Nico Roche and Dan Martin. Nico has had a disasterous season, so it would be great to see him place well.

Has he given any reason for his atrocious - compared to previous years - form? injuries or something, as it looks pretty suspicious in what appears to be a much cleaner year of cycling than before that he's so far off the pace?

He was ill/injured early in the season, so barely did any racing. He then came into the Dauphine saying he felt good, but had maybe overtrained a little. In the Dauphine he had a bad crash, so didn't race again until the Tour. Sadly, I think it has just been one of those seasons where he's not had a chance to get a run going. He's been healthy since the Tour though, so maybe the Vuelta will be a success.

afx237vi

ozzzyosborn206 wrote:

i think he will ride into form and i think that is better than hitting a grand tour flying and trying to hold it for 3 weeks, also it is not the tdf and the best grand tour riders, AC and AS are not there so this will give him more chance, personally i think he is better off aiming for spain or italy rather than france especially if cav is going to sky, as no matter what they say both riders need a whole team behind them to reach their potential. But yeah would be good to see him Nico and Dan M do good rides

It's easier to ride yourself into form in the Tour, though, because the mountains don't appear until the second half of the race. The first mountaintop finish in the Vuelta is day 4.

afx237vi

squired wrote:

jibberjim wrote:

squired wrote:

Two that I'm more interested in are Nico Roche and Dan Martin. Nico has had a disasterous season, so it would be great to see him place well.

Has he given any reason for his atrocious - compared to previous years - form? injuries or something, as it looks pretty suspicious in what appears to be a much cleaner year of cycling than before that he's so far off the pace?

He was ill/injured early in the season, so barely did any racing. He then came into the Dauphine saying he felt good, but had maybe overtrained a little. In the Dauphine he had a bad crash, so didn't race again until the Tour. Sadly, I think it has just been one of those seasons where he's not had a chance to get a run going. He's been healthy since the Tour though, so maybe the Vuelta will be a success.

Just curious, what do people think would constitute a success for Nicholas Roche in a grand tour?

RichN95.

afx237vi wrote:

Just curious, what do people think would constitute a success for Nicholas Roche in a grand tour?

For me, top ten in the Giro or Vuelta or top 15 in the Tour - things he's done before. But a real success would be to win a stage. His talent to wins ratio is rivalled only by van den Broeck in it's paucity.

pedro118118

I just don't see Wiggo coping with the super-steep stuff. >10% and he struggles to hang with the natural climbers. Have to wait and see, I suppose, but given the Vuelta doesn't have the likes of Evans, Basso, Schleck(s), Sanchez, Cantador, he should go all out for a big result and good luck to him.

JustinLeeAtkinson

Heat is an issue too. Likely it will be scorchio throughout la vuelta. Just as much of an issue for Wiggins, Roche and Martin. In fact I dont recall Martin performing at all well in the Tour of California, but he was outstanding of course in Poland,

avoidingmyphd

RichN95 wrote:

His talent to wins ratio is rivalled only by van den Broeck in it's paucity.

Andy Schleck pushes him pretty close too.

I'm not sure we should get too carried away with all this "the hills are sooo steep" stuff. They (even the Angliru) are only silly steep for shortish sections. I wouldn't enjoy racing up them, but given that Wiggins' technique is to TT up them anyway, his time loss on the difficult bits will be small if he paces himself well.
Generally, anyone who goes to the tour de france as a straight faced podium contender should be seen as a contender to win the vuelta. This year is a little different because there are so many people trying to salvage something out of tour de france DNF's.
I predict that Wiggins will be top 3, excluding other riders who DNF the tour de france. This is a special classification I just made up.

LeicesterLad

It all boils down to this. The Vuelta has the makings to be the Grand Tour of the year, The GC contenders are so evenly matched its unreal, and the profile for the first 10 days riding looks amazing compared to the Tour!

Full Merckx

Looking forward to it, as mentioned b4 all the GC contenders are pretty close. Will be interesting to see how much Sky have learned in riding for a GC contender. Never been too convinced by Wiggo, but would love to see him prove me wrong. Got my string vest and sunburn ready

blazing_saddles

Wiggins lives in Gerona.
He might as well head north, instead of south.
Loses a packet in a time trial on day one.

Gazzaputt

Blazing Saddles wrote:

Wiggins lives in Gerona.
He might as well head north, instead of south.
Loses a packet in a time trial on day one.

:roll:

pedro118118

JustinLeeAtkinson wrote:

Heat is an issue too. Likely it will be scorchio throughout la vuelta. Just as much of an issue for Wiggins, Roche and Martin. In fact I dont recall Martin performing at all well in the Tour of California, but he was outstanding of course in Poland,

He wasn't that good.........he lost the overall to Peter Sagan, who's hardly a natural climber. I can't help but think Martin is being over-hyped. A bit like Danielson.....although to be fair to the latter, he finally fulfilled some of his potential at this year's TdF.

slimreaper

pedro118118 wrote:

JustinLeeAtkinson wrote:

Heat is an issue too. Likely it will be scorchio throughout la vuelta. Just as much of an issue for Wiggins, Roche and Martin. In fact I dont recall Martin performing at all well in the Tour of California, but he was outstanding of course in Poland,

He wasn't that good.........he lost the overall to Peter Sagan, who's hardly a natural climber. I can't help but think Martin is being over-hyped. A bit like Danielson.....although to be fair to the latter, he finally fulfilled some of his potential at this year's TdF.

+1

tremayne

Not sure why so many out there weren't prepared to accept that Brad was in the shape of his life. To me, it was glaringly obvious he was in top top form. So glad he's out there proving a lot of people wrong. Go Wiggo!

My biggest cycling dissapointment of the year was his crash in France....

16simon

Ironic that after Wiggins' big effort yesterday it's Froome in the leader's jersey. He's obviously a talented rider but is looking more and more like he should be working for others on the road (as a super domestique, like Millar) and get his glory on the track.

Turfle

16simon wrote:

Ironic that after Wiggins' big effort yesterday it's Froome in the leader's jersey. He's obviously a talented rider but is looking more and more like he should be working for others on the road (as a super domestique, like Millar) and get his glory on the track.

how on earth is it looking more and more like that?