Can Contador win it?

andyjr

For Contador to gain time on Evans he potentially needs help from others, in that he can't do all the attacking and hope to still have enough energy over the next stage. He probably needs others to attack as well so that he can then take advantage at some point. problem is everyone else, aside from Evans is thinking the same thing

richard wants a baum

Could'nt remember what 07 times where did'nt think that he lost 1.52min but Contador doesnt have Ras to help him now does he

We'll see though i'm going to stick by that comment and eat humble pie when Bertie gets his gaps.

mididoctors

if you look back at week one he(evans) went head to head with bertie in a sprint and beat him by the smallest of margins but was leading out?

gained a small amount of time with a well prepared and drilled TTT and avoided all the crashes... laid down a good base there forcing the others to play their cards

which schlecks didnt cash in on the Pyrenees? if they had them? and think andy had a bit more there

singlespeedexplosif

We'll see though i'm going to stick by that comment and eat humble pie when Bertie gets his gaps.
I've got my most unpalatable hat ready too. If there's an Aussie on the top step at the weekend I'm going to be crapping trilbys for a month...;)

mididoctors

andyjr wrote:

For Contador to gain time on Evans he potentially needs help from others, in that he can't do all the attacking and hope to still have enough energy over the next stage. He probably needs others to attack as well so that he can then take advantage at some point. problem is everyone else, aside from Evans is thinking the same thing

you thinking getting away with sanchez again?


a lot of guys need to do something big because staying where they are gifts the better testers

MaxVO2

singlespeedexplosif wrote:

I almost didnt post that but to be honest i cant think of a time pre-2009 when his lost huge chunks of time to Contador on the climbs?

Given that Contador didn't ride the Tour in 08, let's look at '07:

Stage 14: Contador puts 1:52 into Evans
Stage 15: Contador puts 0:56 into Evans

"I knew I needed to attack," Contador said. "I couldn't care less if someone kept on my wheel — I knew one of them would fail. I'm so happy. It has been a major gap, much bigger than I expected." -from AP

Great stats. Thank you.
He did better than he expected! Frandy are doomed. Basso can't keep up. Evans will lose time. Voeckler may podium. Remember, Giro 2010...Basso beat Evans, and another of a plethora of examples of Evans being a defensive rider. The post about July and Evans above was slick.

andyrr

I don't foresee Evans attacking as such, against his best climbing rivals (Schlecks and Contador) but he's intelligent enough to know he can often hang on close enough to them then use his other abilities such as decending to catch/pass them. Him and Voeckler are similar but Evans seems to have a definite edge on Voeckler when it steepens. Seems Evans is prepared to take the risks on decents to win having come so close whilst Shlecks are not. I'd have thought that Saturday's TT result could be close between Evans and Contador whilst I don't see the Schlecks getting any time at all out of that pair on that stage.
I also think that the Shlecks have thrown away opportunities to gain time when they seemed to have the upper hand and now Contador looks to have recovered his legs and Evans is mighty determined to minimise his losses.

MaxVO2

calvjones wrote:

richard wants a baum wrote:

Actually its not really about that, Evans just seems to have done something to his position and style while his climbing and he seems to be alot more comfortable on the climbs. I almost didnt post that but to be honest i cant think of a time pre-2009 when his lost huge chunks of time to Contador on the climbs? Willing to admit im wrong just cant think of a particular stage where he has.

1:30 at Luz Ardiden when Ras and Contador duelled their merry juiced up dance?

You can always tell a July-only cycling fan because they invariably claim Cadel is a defensive rider. :roll:

“I wasn’t expecting so much on this climb. I was more prepared for things on the downhill, because it’s actually a bit dangerous,” Evans said. “I got in the front and followed the moves." --from AP

Evans and BMC were NOT going to attack. It's a "measly" Cat 2 climb. Attacking is not in Evans' playbook. He only follows wheels and tries to minimize his losses. That's why he not a Grand Tour champion.

StageWinner

Don't forget that Evans didn't ride the Giro this year and has kept his pre-Tour racing schedule light. Specifically so he could be fresh for the Tour.

He did a lot more racing pre-Tour in previous years (and this might be one of the factors why he struggled so much to hang on).

He won't get dropped as easily this year. If at all.

Doobz

StageWinner wrote:

Don't forget that Evans didn't ride the Giro this year and has kept his pre-Tour racing schedule light. Specifically so he could be fresh for the Tour.

He did a lot more racing pre-Tour in previous years (and this might be one of the factors why he struggled so much to hang on).

He won't get dropped as easily this year. If at all.

yea, so did Andy shleck and look how shyte he is!

disgruntledgoat

He only follows wheels and tries to minimize his losses. That's why he not a Grand Tour champion.

I know you'll never have heard of him, but go and google Miguel Indurain and let us know what you find out.

disgruntledgoat

Stagewinner

I think the broken arm probably had more to do with it last year.

graeme_s-2

MaxVO2 wrote:

Attacking is not in Evans' playbook.

Like it wasn't when he won the 2009 Worlds, 2010 Flèche Wallonne or Stage 4 in this Tour? He doesn't attack in the high mountains of a GT, but I suspect that's simply because he can't. Since he won the Worlds in 2009 Evans has been one of the more aggressive and exciting riders to watch.

Regardless of what else happened yesterday, Evans DID attack Contador and Sanchez and he earned himself 3 seconds over Contador as a result.

calvjones

disgruntledgoat wrote:

He only follows wheels and tries to minimize his losses. That's why he not a Grand Tour champion.

I know you'll never have heard of him, but go and google Miguel Indurain and let us know what you find out.

I know you'll have never heard of it, but Youtube 'UCI Road World Championship 2009' and let us know what you think.

He's not a "Grand Tour Champion" cos every other fecker has been juiced up to the nines for a decade and he's been hanging on for dear life.

calvjones

Doh Graeme so quick on the keys.

Anyone who hasn't watched the 2010 Giro stage on the Strada has no right to comment of Cuddles.

luckao

MaxVO2 wrote:

Evans and BMC were NOT going to attack. It's a "measly" Cat 2 climb. Attacking is not in Evans' playbook. He only follows wheels and tries to minimize his losses. That's why he not a Grand Tour champion.

Oh God, is this going to turn into some cornoyemadeesque denigration. Although Evans is far from being another Contador, he plays to his strengths. You can't realistically criticise somebody for something they're unable to do. He couldn't have instigated the breaks by repeatedly kicking like Contador did to drop Schleck, so why not play to your own strengths and just try to go with it.

If Voeckler was to win the Tour, would fans scoff and talk about his defensive riding to hang onto his lead? No, because he's universally liked for doing as best he can. Cadel is very similar in that respect.

StageWinner

disgruntledgoat wrote:

Stagewinner

I think the broken arm probably had more to do with it last year.

Of course! (it was his elbow - wasn't it?)

Anyone who thinks Evans is a wheelsucker and doesn't ride to win hasn't watched Pro cycling in the past 3 years. Get with the now.

richard wants a baum

calvjones wrote:

Doh Graeme so quick on the keys.

Anyone who hasn't watched the 2010 Giro stage on the Strada has no right to comment of Cuddles.

And there you have it, that has to be one of the best Stages in decades.

graeme_s-2

calvjones wrote:

Anyone who hasn't watched the 2010 Giro stage on the Strada has no right to comment of Cuddles.

Indeed, that was an epic stage, and it was ridden aggressively by Evans.

I either heard or read something recently where a commentator described Evans as being compelled to attack on any race finish that was steeper than a hump backed bridge, which is a fairly accurate description of his post World Championship form.

disgruntledgoat

I agree with Calv Jones. It's easy to have Panache when you're full of fresh blood/EPO.

Also, you can tell the July fans and those who've never raced a bike... Winning bike races is about taking advantage of your rivals weaknesses and not playing to their strengths. Any attack Evans puts in on an HC climb will be easily countered by Contador, leaving him exposed to further attacks. Why would he do that when he's in front of all the GC guys by a minute with Vockler rating his own chances at zero?

LeicesterLad

disgruntledgoat wrote:

I agree with Calv Jones. It's easy to have Panache when you're full of fresh blood/EPO.

Also, you can tell the July fans and those who've never raced a bike... Winning bike races is about taking advantage of your rivals weaknesses and not playing to their strengths. Any attack Evans puts in on an HC climb will be easily countered by Contador, leaving him exposed to further attacks. Why would he do that when he's in front of all the GC guys by a minute with Vockler rating his own chances at zero?

Agree with that, whether Evans it an attacking rider or not, he currently doesn't really need to attack, so why should he?

RichN95.

disgruntledgoat wrote:

IAlso, you can tell the July fans and those who've never raced a bike...

Yes, because doing a few cat 3 criteriums gives you superior insight into how to win the Tour.

disgruntledgoat

RichN95 wrote:

disgruntledgoat wrote:

IAlso, you can tell the July fans and those who've never raced a bike...

Yes, because doing a few cat 3 criteriums gives you superior insight into how to win the Tour.

I've had my arse kicked at a number of levels up from that... But that wasn't the point I was making.

If you've watched a lot of cycling and made an effort to understand it, or you've competed at whatever level, you appreciate things like why not all the contenders launch massive attacks on every slope or why some guys chase and some guys don't. The basics are the same in your Cat 3 Crit and up to Plateau de Beille.

Likewise, look at Hushovds win yesterday. If you had only tuned in as a casual viewer you wouldn't even notice how he waited until EBH looked right before jumping left.

I think you had me pegged as being more sneery and patronising than I was.

mididoctors

Graeme_S wrote:

calvjones wrote:

Anyone who hasn't watched the 2010 Giro stage on the Strada has no right to comment of Cuddles.

Indeed, that was an epic stage, and it was ridden aggressively by Evans.

I either heard or read something recently where a commentator described Evans as being compelled to attack on any race finish that was steeper than a hump backed bridge, which is a fairly accurate description of his post World Championship form.

or his pre WC form either


went down the road in the 2005 tour and attacked everyone of note on the hautecam in 2008

dennisn

Doobz wrote:

StageWinner wrote:

Don't forget that Evans didn't ride the Giro this year and has kept his pre-Tour racing schedule light. Specifically so he could be fresh for the Tour.

He did a lot more racing pre-Tour in previous years (and this might be one of the factors why he struggled so much to hang on).

He won't get dropped as easily this year. If at all.

yea, so did Andy shleck and look how shyte he is!

Let's see. AS is one of the worlds(note the word WORLDS) top riders and he's SHYTE?
Where does that leave you???

mididoctors

I think having ridden competitively at just about any level does make you appreciate not so much the "panache" of "champions but also the gritty determination some riders have in just hanging on.

that insight into how deep some guys go just to stay there....

not all about just leaping of the front

take the famous LA vid of 2001 "the look" on the alpe... the rider in that vid for me is kivilev..... he is way way way in the red


doesn't hold it of course...breathing through his eyeballs

menchov vs di luca at the giro on vesuvius

Doobz

dennisn wrote:

Let's see. AS is one of the worlds(note the word WORLDS) top riders and he's SHYTE?
Where does that leave you???

Same place as I was before..

disgruntledgoat

Midi

I think that's what I was trying to say. That and cycling rewards study whether on a bike or from the TV.

dennisn

RichN95 wrote:

disgruntledgoat wrote:

IAlso, you can tell the July fans and those who've never raced a bike...

Yes, because doing a few cat 3 criteriums gives you superior insight into how to win the Tour.

+1....It would seem that it also gives a whole lot more people this "superior insight". Great post. Cat 3 racers knowing the "secrets" to winning the Tour because they watch it. .

disgruntledgoat

dennisn wrote:

RichN95 wrote:

disgruntledgoat wrote:

IAlso, you can tell the July fans and those who've never raced a bike...

Yes, because doing a few cat 3 criteriums gives you superior insight into how to win the Tour.

+1....It would seem that it also gives a whole lot more people this "superior insight". Great post. Cat 3 racers knowing the "secrets" to winning the Tour because they watch it. .

I have never claimed to know how to win a Tour. If I did, I wouldn't be sat here typing this out, would I?

I think you're missing my point. See my explanatory posts above.