Can Contador win it?

Bakunin

AC is cooked. Nothing left in the tank.

It is Evans' race to screw up.

StageWinner

A True Champion™ would never sandbag.

Plus - this is Contador we're talking about - the man who constantly defies team orders and attacks at every opportunity. No way he would hold back unless he was unable to attack.

Can he win it? Of course. Several riders still can. Thursday and Friday will be fun days.

ms_tree

According to some of the interviews I've just been catching up on Frandy are implying they are going to wait until the TT - which will make really boring racing this week if they do. Hopefully someone else - don't mind who - takes off (Bert? Cadel? Tommy woohoo!) and leaves them looking at each other.(I really want to bang their heads together!)
Also the forecast isn't good.

iainf72

StageWinner wrote:

Plus - this is Contador we're talking about - the man who constantly defies team orders and attacks at every opportunity. No way he would hold back unless he was unable to attack.

I think you under estimate him. He very strong, but he's also a very astute bike rider. He's won 6 grand tours, he knows what it takes. His first Giro victory wasn't exactly an awesome attack fest.

If Contador could win a grand tour with a single attack and riding conservatively the rest of the time, he'd do it. So would all the others. Panache is just some cheap french perfume and something you saw on 80's cycling videos when they were edited down to 20 minutes worth of highlights.

mididoctors

well............ a whole lot of non consensus there

still anyone's race.

Tommy V will have to be very lucky and go very deep to make the podium


he needs more tactical neutralization but I think it will be all over on the Galibier

lack of goofed up trains pulling in the hills

morstar

StageWinner wrote:

A True Champion™ would never sandbag.

Plus - this is Contador we're talking about - the man who constantly defies team orders and attacks at every opportunity. No way he would hold back unless he was unable to attack.

Can he win it? Of course. Several riders still can. Thursday and Friday will be fun days.

This.
Like him or not, all this talk of sandbagging is nonsense. If he's got the legs, he'll go. Clearly he wasn't right last week.
I think there's a good chance he'll get time back this week but I think winning is a big ask. The whole idea of the schlecks waiting to actually race is preposterous. They could still win but they're taking unnecessary risks.

singlespeedexplosif

The race will be over by l'Alpe. Contador will hand the lot of them their arses on a plate on the Galibier. Put your house on it. Monster, monster.

mididoctors

morstar wrote:

StageWinner wrote:

A True Champion™ would never sandbag.

Plus - this is Contador we're talking about - the man who constantly defies team orders and attacks at every opportunity. No way he would hold back unless he was unable to attack.

Can he win it? Of course. Several riders still can. Thursday and Friday will be fun days.

This.
Like him or not, all this talk of sandbagging is nonsense. If he's got the legs, he'll go. Clearly he wasn't right last week.
I think there's a good chance he'll get time back this week but I think winning is a big ask. The whole idea of the schlecks waiting to actually race is preposterous. They could still win but they're taking unnecessary risks.

2 basic options for the schlecks

plan A I think is the idea for Andy to come good in the third and Franck to mark the counters circa 2008 swapping Andy for Sastre


OR


Frank to ride thigh empo and blow up then Andy goes from a depleted lead group

the problem is some of that lead group need to be super domestiques rather than contenders


Bertie


who knows

either he steps up or just fades in the background

very hard to call.... truly unnown outcome


Evans just needs more of the same

Tusher

On the other hand, Phil, or Paul, were quite certain that Little Tommy V had a suitcase of courage with him.

mididoctors

pity wiggins crashed out he would be right up in the mix the way they raced so far

StageWinner

iainf72 wrote:

StageWinner wrote:

Plus - this is Contador we're talking about - the man who constantly defies team orders and attacks at every opportunity. No way he would hold back unless he was unable to attack.

I think you under estimate him. He very strong, but he's also a very astute bike rider. He's won 6 grand tours, he knows what it takes. His first Giro victory wasn't exactly an awesome attack fest.

If Contador could win a grand tour with a single attack and riding conservatively the rest of the time, he'd do it. So would all the others. Panache is just some cheap french perfume and something you saw on 80's cycling videos when they were edited down to 20 minutes worth of highlights.

In recent years and races - he's attacked to gain time when he could. Usually in the last KM of a stage, but attacked nonetheless. In the Giro he took time wherever he could - even though he didn't need it.

No 'astute' bike rider would gamble an entire 3 week Tour on ONE stage if the opportunity to take time in other stages was present.

It's one thing to try and hang on and win it in the TT if that's all you are capable of, it's another thing to pin all your hopes on the possibility of getting away in a mountain stage, when the other GC riders aren't showing any signs of weakness.

nferrar

mididoctors wrote:

pity wiggins crashed out he would be right up in the mix the way they raced so far

Yeah I thought Wiggo had no chance before the TdF, even being in good form, but if the GC contenders race the Alps like they did the Pyrenees then Wiggo would probably have been favourite going into the TT...

As for Contador, I can't see him getting much time on the Galibier, it's not steep enough to drop Evans let alone Andy IMO and he's already used that as an excuse. The mountain stage before that has a big descent before the finish + small final climb, again not something Contador is known to excel at. So it all comes down to Alpe d'Huez (barring crashes/chain mishaps), kudos to him if he does put 2 minutes into them on it but I can't see it happening myself.

Bakunin

Old, but some may not have read it.

http://cozybeehive.blogspot.com/2009/07 ... -know.html

mroli

The thing for me is that I've started buying the Contador party line. He has looked "bad", but he is getting better. He said that his right knee was screwed and that he was riding in a different style to try and carry that leg. I think that makes sense if you see how he has been riding. He know says that the knee is better.

A fit, on form Contador can put time into all of these riders, except for, maybe a fully fit and firing Schleck A. I would be amazed if the Alps aren't very interesting.

I'm not a Contador fan - he doesn't ignite me the way he ignites FF and others, but not to respect his riding (especially given the way he rode in the Giro) is IMHO foolish.

If I had been the Schlecks, I would have attacked him and dispatched him when he was riding with one leg - but they were too worried about Evans to do so.

Gazzetta67

Is it true that the Schlecks are getting wing mirrors fitted to their handlebars

verylonglegs

The funny thing is, for all the moaning about the Schlecks not putting the hammer down and sealing a win...there would be an equal number of threads/posts complaining it was boring if someone had just done that and it was already in the bag. It's not often you get a Tour with this many possibilities in the final week.

morstar

verylonglegs wrote:

The funny thing is, for all the moaning about the Schlecks not putting the hammer down and sealing a win...there would be an equal number of threads/posts complaining it was boring if someone had just done that and it was already in the bag. It's not often you get a Tour with this many possibilities in the final week.

And there's the conundrum. This is exactly why the organisers have backloaded all the action right at the end of the race. Theory has played out that we only have a few days to go and there are a surprising number of contenders. It keeps the possibilities exciting but will reality deliver?

We've got this situation at the expense of a high casualty rate with so many riders crashing through the need to all be at the front of the race and we've had very negative tactics. For me, it has always been a bit of a disappointment when the winner is obvious after the first set of mountains but by that point you've see some hard racing and know that the likely winner is worthy. You also get lower placed riders prepared to have a go as that is the only way they can get back into contention. In this race, everybody is still in touch and too risk averse to try anything.

Bronzie

Bakunin wrote:

Old, but some may not have read it.

http://cozybeehive.blogspot.com/2009/07 ... -know.html

There are some truly laugh out loud bits in there:
Perhaps Lemond and other Contador grillers in the press may like to think twice about "firing" pressuring questions at this youngster in front of cameras and the whole world. Perhaps this is the reason why he tries to avoid needless questions that try to take his mind off racing. He remembers hospital too well and does not want to end up there again.

Was this penned by FF by any chance?

dilemna

The field is still wide open.

SunWuKong

I think Andy will attack, get a small gap and then wait for Frank, constantly looking for him until they all ride back up to him. he wont just do this once, no he will repeat this and then say he and Frank are the only ones attacking. Frank will attack repeatedly but not be able to gain any real time but will not look for Andy. Andy will put the decisive attack in with 300m left and gain a valuable 4 seconds over Contador.

I actually think Contador hasn't been sand bagging but that his knee has been sore and it should be pretty much OK for he Alps. I am hoping that Evans can stay with him and win this TdF. Or failing that comes in 2nd and then gets it when Contador is (hopefully) banned.

singlespeedexplosif

..and there we go. Contador back in pole position and we haven't even got to the Alps.

TheBigBean

TheBigBean wrote:

Anyone else think he might have a go tomorrow? Good chance to sneak a few seconds if any of the others are sleeping.

Poor form to quote yourself, but I have the same question for tomorrow as well.

Gazzetta67

oscarbudgie wrote:

Contador suddenly finds form after the second rest day.....
Now where have I heard that before?
No doubt the cheating tw@t spent yesterday hooked up to a big bag of his own blood. Almost a tradition for the guy.

Your an idiot

nferrar

I find it pretty suspicious to, one rest day and he can drop all the other GC contenders apart from Sanchez and Evans on a relatively shallow gradient climb? Ofc without an accepted test for plasticisers we'll never know (assuming the blood wasn't contaminated like last year). Fair play to Evans though, couple more stages like that and he'll be a deserved winner.

nferrar

I find it pretty suspicious to, one rest day and he can drop all the other GC contenders apart from Sanchez and Evans on a relatively shallow gradient climb? Ofc without an accepted test for plasticisers we'll never know (assuming the blood wasn't contaminated like last year). Fair play to Evans though, couple more stages like that and he'll be a deserved winner.

Doobz

oscarbudgie wrote:

Contador suddenly finds form after the second rest day.....
Now where have I heard that before?
No doubt the cheating tw@t spent yesterday hooked up to a big bag of his own blood. Almost a tradition for the guy.

Are these your toys? You seem to have thrown them out your pram

TheBullet

singlespeedexplosif wrote:

..and there we go. Contador back in pole position and we haven't even got to the Alps.

Surely Evans is in pole position.

iainf72

nferrar wrote:

I find it pretty suspicious to, one rest day and he can drop all the other GC contenders apart from Sanchez and Evans on a relatively shallow gradient climb? Ofc without an accepted test for plasticisers we'll never know (assuming the blood wasn't contaminated like last year). Fair play to Evans though, couple more stages like that and he'll be a deserved winner.

If I turn the argument on it's head, some people who've been bust say they used to not feel great the day after a transfusion and felt better the day after. Perhaps this is what happened to Andy? Or perhaps he didn't like the rain? Or is rubbish after a rest day

Crankbrother

iainf72 wrote:

nferrar wrote:

I find it pretty suspicious to, one rest day and he can drop all the other GC contenders apart from Sanchez and Evans on a relatively shallow gradient climb? Ofc without an accepted test for plasticisers we'll never know (assuming the blood wasn't contaminated like last year). Fair play to Evans though, couple more stages like that and he'll be a deserved winner.

If I turn the argument on it's head, some people who've been bust say they used to not feel great the day after a transfusion and felt better the day after. Perhaps this is what happened to Andy? Or perhaps he didn't like the rain? Or is rubbish after a rest day

If the Schleck's could have attacked more effectively in the pyrenees they would have ... they have shown in the past they can, tactically inept or not ... The favourites, bar Evans and Wiggins, all came in in poor form and even Cadel was watching not to overdo it at the Dauphine ... Chances are Evans will have his one bad day, Andy will win with Bertie on his wheel on the Alpe and Contador will win the overall by 30 secs ...

Voeckler will be out of yellow before Friday ... Hopefully this will make someone else bother their arse to earn it ...

iainf72

I'm curious why so many people think Cuddles will have a bad day?