Can Contador win it?

meanmrmustard

This is the first time I've ever watched TDF and have to say I'm thoroughly enjoying it. It's a shame about the crashes we've had so far in particular Wiggins.
My question though is can Contador win it from here? Being 4 minutes off the pace seems a lot especially when nearly 2 of those minutes are behind the Shlecks. However he held on in the Pyrenees, I wonder if he can storm away in the Alps.

cogidubnus

In a simple answer yes. He can take time from the Schlecks in the TT on Saturday. So in essence he has to make up the time on Evans in the alps before then

Tusher

If he's fit, yes, he still can.

If he's not, then he'll not even make the podium.

dbmnk

there is no way he'd collect 2 mins on Shreks in the Alps, so he'd have to put up a smashing TT

cogidubnus

dbmnk wrote:

there is no way he'd collect 2 mins on Shreks in the Alps, so he'd have to put up a smashing TT

Did you not watch the Giro? Yes AS is better than the Giro contenders but if AC finds anywhere near that form it could be interesting

shinyhelmut

I'm with Tusher here. Contador in form could start the TT in yellow then win the TT.

An off form Contador will struggle to make the podium.

Bronzie

If his lack of form is simply down to his knee injury then it's possible that he could be better in the Alps, but I suspect he aimed to peak for the Giro (as he didn't expect to be allowed to ride the Tour) and used up all his bullets in May

I find it almost infeasible that his form could pick up that much in a few days...........unless he ate a really BIG steak today of course.

shinyhelmut

Bronzie wrote:

I find it almost infeasible that his form could pick up that much in a few days...........unless he ate a really BIG steak today of course.

The type that's delivered by a motorbike with refrigerated panniers?

disgruntledgoat

I think he can win... But a lot depends on his recovery. He was clearly suffering through the Pyrenees, if you're 3 minutes down, you don't not attack if you're the best climber and you're capable of it.

I think the Schlecks will regret not going harder at him. He can't be that bad in the Alps... I'm going to give Evans a pass, as he's never been one to instigate attacks in the high mountains.

LangerDan

I suspect Bertie is sandbagging. I've no doubt he wasn't in great shape (both from the Giro and hitting the deck) earlier in the race, but Bertie on Plateau de Beille seemed under considerably less stress than he was on shorter climbs a week ago. I think Riis has told him to play up his lack of form and his knee problems to keep the pressure off until Alpe D'Huez and then put the boot in. At that point, the Schlecks won't have any Plan B to recover any time lost.

disgruntledgoat

I think that's leaving it too late. Unless he absolutely mullers all of the other contenders up the Alp by 5 minutes, he'll be in arrears on Evans with a TT to come.

I don't buy the sandbagging either. He's lost a lot of time and has limited opportunity to make it back, he needs to take time where he can and not stake everything on one day.

I think we'll see him try to lose as many as possible on all 3 alpine stages and hope to be in Yellow with at least 1 min on Evans on saturday.

iainf72

disgruntledgoat wrote:

I don't buy the sandbagging either. He's lost a lot of time and has limited opportunity to make it back, he needs to take time where he can and not stake everything on one day.

I think it makes sense for him to have been sandbagging. At the moment, no one knows his true level, so they've gone into the rest day not quite sure. If he'd done something on Saturday it would be telegraphing it to all. But he's got a pretty good idea where Andy is in terms of form (not as good as last year) Evans is boxing clever by not doing anything yet. Basso will be interesting as he'll be better this week

nferrar

I don't buy the sand-bagging. Not only did he actually lose time on one of the mountain stages but he did look uncomfortable on the Plateau de Beille stage (slow to react the first of AS's attacks). There's just no logic, if he had the legs, to not attacking on PdB to get some time back - you can't be in good shape and be willing to leave it all come down to one Alpine stage to get enough back to have a comfortable TT. He may well recover enough during the rest day though (whether naturally or not) to be able to give the Schelck's a headache on Alpe D'Huez as neither of the Schlecks seem to have much form either. I'd say Evans is the main threat to the Schelcks now, if he can stay close to them in the Alps he should be able to make enough time in the TT. Basso is a bit of an unknown, seems to have reasonable form in the Pyrenees but he can't do big attacks and isn't exactly a top TTer either so I can't see him beating Evans.

disgruntledgoat

Iain,

Doesn't make sense for me for a rider as calculating as bert to leave his whole Tour down to one day, when he needs to make up 5 minutes with a Time Trial to follow shortly afterwards. Guess we're both just making shots in the dark though eh?

cogidubnus

He lost what about 12 seconds in the Pyrannees? Easily made up in the Alps if he was sandbagging. If he's on form he only really needs to drop Evans which shouldn't be too hard IF AC is on form/beef

gabriel959

I do not think he is sand-bagging but if he is in good form for the TT he can possibly put time in all of them (including Evans). I reckon as long as he makes up 2 minutes in the Alps (and that is a big ask) he will win it.

It will be interesting to see if Voeckler can keep yellow till the TT!

disgruntledgoat

But he lost a shedload more than that before the Pyrenees, was what I meant.

stfc1

It's just a shame he didn't have a teammate in yellow to neutralise the stage for him after getting held up by the crash on stage one...

Whether he wins or not, I don't expect him to go home without trying, and that should hopefully make for some good racing in the Alps.

edhornby

I don't think he's sandbagging either, if he was he would have 'only just' won on the mur de bretagne

TheBigBean

Anyone else think he might have a go tomorrow? Good chance to sneak a few seconds if any of the others are sleeping.

calvjones

nferrar wrote:

I don't buy the sand-bagging. Not only did he actually lose time on one of the mountain stages but he did look uncomfortable on the Plateau de Beille stage (slow to react the first of AS's attacks). There's just no logic, if he had the legs, to not attacking on PdB to get some time back - you can't be in good shape and be willing to leave it all come down to one Alpine stage to get enough back to have a comfortable TT. He may well recover enough during the rest day though (whether naturally or not) to be able to give the Schelck's a headache on Alpe D'Huez as neither of the Schlecks seem to have much form either. I'd say Evans is the main threat to the Schelcks now, if he can stay close to them in the Alps he should be able to make enough time in the TT. Basso is a bit of an unknown, seems to have reasonable form in the Pyrenees but he can't do big attacks and isn't exactly a top TTer either so I can't see him beating Evans.

+1
Sandbagging?

Bolux.

He could sandbag all the way to the Alpe and then puncture 1km into the climb. He'd look a bit silly then, wouldn't he?

verylonglegs

calvjones wrote:

nferrar wrote:

I don't buy the sand-bagging. Not only did he actually lose time on one of the mountain stages but he did look uncomfortable on the Plateau de Beille stage (slow to react the first of AS's attacks). There's just no logic, if he had the legs, to not attacking on PdB to get some time back - you can't be in good shape and be willing to leave it all come down to one Alpine stage to get enough back to have a comfortable TT. He may well recover enough during the rest day though (whether naturally or not) to be able to give the Schelck's a headache on Alpe D'Huez as neither of the Schlecks seem to have much form either. I'd say Evans is the main threat to the Schelcks now, if he can stay close to them in the Alps he should be able to make enough time in the TT. Basso is a bit of an unknown, seems to have reasonable form in the Pyrenees but he can't do big attacks and isn't exactly a top TTer either so I can't see him beating Evans.

+1
Sandbagging?

Bolux.

He could sandbag all the way to the Alpe and then puncture 1km into the climb. He'd look a bit silly then, wouldn't he?

Well put like that it does sound ridiculous, if you feel good and the opportunity is there to take time and you really do need to take the time out of your rivals then you get on and do it.

luckao

Suppose he is sandbagging. All of the emphasis for him to overturn the deficit shouldn't placed on Alpe d'Huez. Although he'll undoubtedly attack there, it won't be his only opportunity to do so. If he really is good enough to replicate his Giro form, he won't isolate his attacking instincts to one stage.

frenchfighter

He said he was prepared to attack a few times at P de B but it wasnt steep enough.

He also said that he wont go home without trying to win.

Riss intimating that he is not going to wait for l'Alpe either.

Defo not with people on his ability to destroy the Schlecks in the TT - take good time yes but not destroy. He took only 30 secs last year over 52km....although I have never seen him so shattered after any race so I guess that was 30secs on a very bad day (and a good one for Andy).



"Today I didn't feel too well. I didn't sleep well and woke up with stomach ache, but ultimately the day turned out pretty well for me, although I suffered more today than at any other time this year."

frenchfighter

Just checked Anncey - Contador on best from - that was 1min45secs on Andy over 40km.

Profile doesnt suit Andy either:



Best scenario is he attacks a couple of times next week leaving him about a minute of the Schlecks with Evans slipping a little behind him so the TT will be one close call.

frenchfighter

And the stages this week are sure things to take time on others if attacks go.

timoid.

gabriel959 wrote:

I do not think he is sand-bagging but if he is in good form for the TT he can possibly put time in all of them (including Evans). I reckon as long as he makes up 2 minutes in the Alps (and that is a big ask) he will win it.

It will be interesting to see if Voeckler can keep yellow till the TT!

At last someone said it. Contador (for whatever reason talent or steak) at the end of a stage race is as likely to put time into Evans as to lose it.

Frank needs 2 mins and Andy 1.5 to be safe.

For me, Contador's Tour will be decided on Thursday.

cal_stewart

In a word no.

Why would a man who attacked on the first mtn finish in the giro leave it so long in the tour.

He's prob just not cheating as the french are on to him

timoid.

Cal_Stewart wrote:

In a word no.

Why would a man who attacked on the first mtn finish in the giro leave it so long in the tour.

He's prob just not cheating as the french are on to him

Then chapeau to him for keeping up with Samu Sanchez and the Schlecks, who defintiely are.

timoid.

Cal_Stewart wrote:

In a word no.

Why would a man who attacked on the first mtn finish in the giro leave it so long in the tour.

He's prob just not cheating as the french are on to him

Then chapeau to him for keeping up with Samu Sanchez and the Schlecks, who definitely are.

cal_stewart

thats makes him worse than cuddles