Tour De France 2010 - *May contain spoilers*

DonDaddyD

I don't think that stage was as bad as yesterdays. I also think the 'protest' was more to do with frustration from yesterdays stage compounded on by today's crashes as well.

Also, I'm of the thought that I wouldn't have been able to stop myself sprinting off at the end. Which brings me to the question, was Cancellara right?

Tomorrow's stage should be exiting, what with it potentially being the few places other contenders can put time into Contador.

Zachariah

I don't know if Cancellara was right or not, but he's my new personal hero.

shouldbeinbed

DonDaddyD wrote:

I don't think that stage was as bad as yesterdays. I also think the 'protest' was more to do with frustration from yesterdays stage compounded on by today's crashes as well.

Also, I'm of the thought that I wouldn't have been able to stop myself sprinting off at the end. Which brings me to the question, was Cancellara right?

Tomorrow's stage should be exiting, what with it potentially being the few places other contenders can put time into Contador.

The real question is would Cancellara have done the same thing if it was Contador or Wiggins racing back to the main bunch not his own teammates?

My sweet butt he would. and I don't get that he's sacrificed the yellow jersey either, psycholoogically he was never holding it, just borrowing it from the breakaway chancers and mountaineers. If they did away with the warm up lap on the first day, he'd be a nonentity in the pack till the proper TT during the race and then a 1 day stage winner not some sort of arbiter of week 1 safety.

I notice he wasn't so fussed on the prologue when there were far more serious injuries dished out by the roads.

tailwindhome

[cynical barsteward] Cancellara had a bit of a rest today before tomorrow's stage over the cobbles, which he is quite good at.......[/cynical barsteward]

cjcp

I'm with AT here. Contador's pretty much got it wrapped up.

Same thing happened after Arcalis (sp?) last year. Armstrong's ahead of him, but he can't keep up with AC on any of the climbs if AC attacks. The others have to attack AC now. The Schlecks need to double-team AC to stand any chance of winning - none of that stuff we saw on Ventoux last year - and they'll need some help from other GC contenders. AC just needs to stay upright on the cobbles.

cjcp

TailWindHome wrote:

[cynical barsteward] Cancellara had a bit of a rest today before tomorrow's stage over the cobbles, which he is quite good at.......[/cynical barsteward]

You cynical barsteward.

EDIT: But how cool would it be for him to do a P-R again? Reckon he'll have orders to spank it so Saxo Bank are at the front and AC is left in the bunch and at risk of tumbling?

andy83

was just about to post the same thing

I think he still would have done it had it been contador or wiggins but for different reasons. as previously mentioned he was never going to hold onto the jersey, and he wants to be fresh for the cobbles tomorrow

put it this way, had he not slowed it all down etc he wouldnt have been anywhere near the front and talk would of been of hush getting the sprint (and the crashes of course), however now it is all about how canc is a great amassador for the sport and team saxo bank are a great close nit team.

tailwindhome

Stage 3 update

The Peleton have caught the breakaway and Cummings (Sky) is had a go off the front.

Frank Schleck has hit the deck (I know, I'm a poet)

Will Andy wait for him? Something about them reminds me of the Rolf Harris classic - Two Little Boys.


ETA

Apparently he won't.

Hesjedal (??) is 32" ahead of a cracking group (the peleton are 1'37" further back)

A Schelck
Cancellara (cynical? moi?)
Cummings
Gerraint Thomas
Thor
Cadel Evans

tailwindhome

Armstrong is in another group between Cancellara and the main peleton.

jonginge

holy feck. that is all

cjcp

Geraint Thomas's success can be attributed to the magical qualities of the Welsh cakes he has been eating. Good lad. Nothing to do with him being awwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwessssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssooooooooooooooooooooooome.

ketsbaia

Mentali.

Terrific stage, in massive contrast to yesterday's questionable finish.

DonDaddyD

Loved this stage, loved it. Had everything IMO.

Loved Schleck and Cancellara giving it the 'belly'.

Loved Armstrong's fight to claw as much back from Contador as possible. That acceleration over the cobbles, the man is awesome.

Loved the little drama at the end where Vino appeared to drop Contador.

Geraint Thomas, I have faith. But if he rides better than Wiggins, which is looking likely what will happen to the Sky team dynamics? I like Wiggins but I feel he lacks that arsehole "I'm the leader/winner I'll ride you off the road to win" persona...

The race is on, the drama has begun.

(Always Tyred, the way you were posting earlier was like there wasn't much point watching the Tour after the Prologue. Still think that?)

greg66_tri_v2.0

Always Tyred wrote:

Schleck, A has already blown it.

Ditto Wiggins

Uh-huh.

Got a tip on the football tonight?

tailwindhome

Overall standings:
3. Cadel Evans (Aus/BMC) at 39"
6. Andy Schleck (Lux/SAX) at 1'09"
8. Alexandre Vinoukourov (Kaz/AST) at 1'31"
9. Alberto Contador (Spa/AST) at 1'40"
14 Bradley Wiggins (GB/SKY) at 1'49"
18 Lance Armstrong (US/TRS) at 2' 30"



I think if I were Bradley Wiggins I would be really really really regretting my Prologue performance.

Oh yes and

11. ROCHE Nicolas + 01' 42"

tailwindhome

*digs very deep into the archives*

Greg 66 - on the 2009 thread wrote:

What about this: if Andy wants to win, he's got to have Frank riding for him, but he's got to ride for himself at the crunch moments, and not ride for Frank.

I hope we're about to find out how good Andy is

greg66_tri_v2.0

TailWindHome wrote:

*digs very deep into the archives*

Greg 66 - on the 2009 thread wrote:

What about this: if Andy wants to win, he's got to have Frank riding for him, but he's got to ride for himself at the crunch moments, and not ride for Frank.

I hope we're about to find out how good Andy is

Nice find (and I agree, btw)!

suzyb

Question for those more knowledgable.

The commentators mentioned they'd brought in a rule to stop any riders swapping their bike for one with a motor. They could only take a bike from a team car or team mate.

But where else would they get a bike from?

tailwindhome

Did anyone else notice the bike Chris Boardman was riding in his piece to the camera describing the finish of stage one.

Black frame but no decals/ branding?

A prototype?
Another brand 'blacked out'?
A Boardman, but not allowed the product placement?

tailwindhome

suzyb wrote:

Question for those more knowledgable.

The commentators mentioned they'd brought in a rule to stop any riders swapping their bike for one with a motor. They could only take a bike from a team car or team mate.

But where else would they get a bike from?

A team mechanic stationed at the side of the road

No

I don't understand either

Someone on the road forum said it was like blowing up the moon to safeguard against werewolves

andy83

TailWindHome wrote:

Did anyone else notice the bike Chris Boardman was riding in his piece to the camera describing the finish of stage one.

Black frame but no decals/ branding?

A prototype?
Another brand 'blacked out'?
A Boardman, but not allowed the product placement?

it looked like a boardman to me and just the brand covered with tape, not sure whyh though

davis

Anyone got a stream (or other dump) of today's stage? Most formats would be acceptable, including zoetrope with an old woman playing a piano accompaniment. Just got home, missed the stage (PVR no worky-worky), missed the highlights, and I've managed to keep up so far.

TVCatchUp doesn't appear to live up to its implied purpose, unless I'm being denser than depleted uranium.

always_tyred

Greg66 wrote:

Always Tyred wrote:

Schleck, A has already blown it.

Ditto Wiggins

Uh-huh.

Got a tip on the football tonight?

What's changed? Schleck A buried himself today to gain back time lost in the prologue. Contador didn't have to go (as) deep. Schleck will have to do this three, maybe four more times. So he's used one big effort already, just to break even.

Wiggins clawed back hardly any time, so he still down overall, whereas he'd have hoped to be ahead after one of only two time trials.

Evans is in an interesting position now. He gained most today, and lost least in the prologue.

So I stand by my prediction.

Netherlands - Spain final, btw. Netherlands to win.

England underestimated Germany and overestimated themselves. Argentina underestimated England and therefore vicarously underestimated Germany (and had a comedy fat arm wavy man in charge), whereas Spain would even take Algeria seriously at this stage, so I think they'll make Germany look more like as good as they actually are.

Netherlands haven't been self-promoting, and seem unrufflable. Spain will freeze a bit in the final, under the pressure of being favourites.

suzyb

davis wrote:

Anyone got a stream (or other dump) of today's stage? Most formats would be acceptable, including zoetrope with an old woman playing a piano accompaniment. Just got home, missed the stage (PVR no worky-worky), missed the highlights, and I've managed to keep up so far.

TVCatchUp doesn't appear to live up to its implied purpose, unless I'm being denser than depleted uranium.

I believe ITVPlayer shows the highlights programme. May need to wait a few hours for it to get put on there though.

davis

suzyb wrote:

davis wrote:

Anyone got a stream (or other dump) of today's stage? Most formats would be acceptable, including zoetrope with an old woman playing a piano accompaniment. Just got home, missed the stage (PVR no worky-worky), missed the highlights, and I've managed to keep up so far.

TVCatchUp doesn't appear to live up to its implied purpose, unless I'm being denser than depleted uranium.

I believe ITVPlayer shows the highlights programme. May need to wait a few hours for it to get put on there though.

Blimey, I thought ITVPlayer was still some hideous Windows-only bloatfest. It turns out it's just a Flash video player. That'll do for me, I'm watching the highlights now, thanks very much.

Coriander

Greg66 wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

*digs very deep into the archives*

Greg 66 - on the 2009 thread wrote:

What about this: if Andy wants to win, he's got to have Frank riding for him, but he's got to ride for himself at the crunch moments, and not ride for Frank.

I hope we're about to find out how good Andy is

Nice find (and I agree, btw)!

I think Frank's abandonment will actually release Andy to go and see exactly what he can do. And I think that might be quite a lot. Though I suspect the Bordeaux TT will probably damage any chance he has of winning, especially as there are no stages left after that to recover in - remember Bertie's stonking ride in last year's TT.

always_tyred

Coriander wrote:

I think Frank's abandonment will actually release Andy to go and see exactly what he can do. And I think that might be quite a lot. Though I suspect the Bordeaux TT will probably damage any chance he has of winning, especially as there are no stages left after that to recover in - remember Bertie's stonking ride in last year's TT.

Um, no. Loosing Schleck II is not good. He's enough of a GC threat to prompt Contador (or other GC contenders) to have to respond to any attacks (but obviously Schleck I could just wheel suck and let others take the initiative to chase). If he does get away, but at his own ultimate cost, he's still a guy up the road to support Schleck I. Very dangerous weapon has been lost.

But you are right that the relative second TT times will be modified by how far all of the GC riders have degenerated by then - so the prologue multiplied by 5 will not be representative.

Coriander

Always Tyred wrote:

Coriander wrote:

I think Frank's abandonment will actually release Andy to go and see exactly what he can do. And I think that might be quite a lot. Though I suspect the Bordeaux TT will probably damage any chance he has of winning, especially as there are no stages left after that to recover in - remember Bertie's stonking ride in last year's TT.

Um, no. Loosing Schleck II is not good. He's enough of a GC threat to prompt Contador (or other GC contenders) to have to respond to any attacks (but obviously Schleck I could just wheel suck and let others take the initiative to chase). If he does get away, but at his own ultimate cost, he's still a guy up the road to support Schleck I. Very dangerous weapon has been lost.

But you are right that the relative second TT times will be modified by how far all of the GC riders have degenerated by then - so the prologue multiplied by 5 will not be representative.

I think it's wrong to regard Frank as just a teammate that Andy no longer has to work for him. While you're right that Andy is now missing a valuable helper, he does often also seem to find it hard to leave Frank behind and just race his own race - remember Ventoux (was it Ventoux - i get mountains confused).

always_tyred

Coriander wrote:

Always Tyred wrote:

Coriander wrote:

I think Frank's abandonment will actually release Andy to go and see exactly what he can do. And I think that might be quite a lot. Though I suspect the Bordeaux TT will probably damage any chance he has of winning, especially as there are no stages left after that to recover in - remember Bertie's stonking ride in last year's TT.

Um, no. Loosing Schleck II is not good. He's enough of a GC threat to prompt Contador (or other GC contenders) to have to respond to any attacks (but obviously Schleck I could just wheel suck and let others take the initiative to chase). If he does get away, but at his own ultimate cost, he's still a guy up the road to support Schleck I. Very dangerous weapon has been lost.

But you are right that the relative second TT times will be modified by how far all of the GC riders have degenerated by then - so the prologue multiplied by 5 will not be representative.

I think it's wrong to regard Frank as just a teammate that Andy no longer has to work for him. While you're right that Andy is now missing a valuable helper, he does often also seem to find it hard to leave Frank behind and just race his own race - remember Ventoux (was it Ventoux - i get mountains confused).

The team regarded him as a viable plan b, I mean he was 5th last year after all. But under no circumstances was Schleck A going to ever wait for him (unless a situation where all the gc contenders hang back, like yesterday).

greg66_tri_v2.0

Always Tyred wrote:

Greg66 wrote:

Always Tyred wrote:

Schleck, A has already blown it.

Ditto Wiggins

Uh-huh.

Got a tip on the football tonight?

What's changed? Schleck A buried himself today to gain back time lost in the prologue. Contador didn't have to go (as) deep. Schleck will have to do this three, maybe four more times. So he's used one big effort already, just to break even.

Wiggins clawed back hardly any time, so he still down overall, whereas he'd have hoped to be ahead after one of only two time trials.

Evans is in an interesting position now. He gained most today, and lost least in the prologue.

So I stand by my prediction.

Hmm. It wasn't really a prediction. It was a statement of what had already happened. Anyhoo...

After the Prologue, the main GC contenders (relative to the best of them) stood:

1. Armstrong
2. Contador +5
3. Kloden +14
4. Evans +17
5. Basso +33
6. Wiggins +34
7. Schleck A +47

Now over 10 minutes, Wiggins was never going to pull out a huge time advantage on Contador (who's no slouch in a TT). Maybe 15 seconds tops. Andy Schleck maybe lost 10 more seconds than he might have expected to.

Now, after today, those riders stand as follows:

1. Evans
2. Schleck A +30
3. Contador +1.01
4. Wiggins +1.10
5. Armstrong +1.51
6. Kloden +2.22
7. Basso +2.41

I don't think Wiggins will have thought he'd win this Tour with a good show in the Prologue and an ITT. The mountains are too dominant in the route. He knows that to win, he has to win in the mountains. He was only ever 29 seconds off AC, and now he's within 9 seconds of AC. He hadn't blown it (the Tour) on day one, and he hasn't done so yet. Ditto Schleck A. It's all very early days, with a little bit more week one jostling than we've seen for a while. But none of these gaps are that big.

Of that group, I'd say Evans is the weak man come the mountains. Not because he can't climb, but because he can't match the accelerations of the others in the group, and eventually they'll kill him off by putting him into his red zone too often.

Most interesting facet of today for me was seeing Vino's group come over the line. It had had AC in it. But they shelled him out the back in the last two k. Guess Vino has his own ideas of who the star in Astana is. Be surprised to see him riding for AC in the mountains. Who'd've thought?