Stage 16 - Martigny > Bourg St Maurice SPOILER
The race leaves Switzerland via the Col du Gran St Bernard and heads into Italy for 80km before returning in France via the Col du Petit St Bernard.
The first col is very hard, the top part has short sections at 10% although it averages 6-7%. Some riders this morning will do a stint on the turbo trainer to be properly warmed up as the stage starts by immediately riding uphill and those wanting to get in an early move will need to be ready. The second climb isn't so steep with long sections at 4 or 5%. The finish is right at the foot of the descent, even the last kilometre is a steep downhill section with only the last 200m being flat.
Hard to pick a winner today. Maybe a break? The course doesn't just suit climbers but riders able to push a big gear uphill. We could see a decent size group of the GC contenders reaching the summit of the final climb, perhaps someone able to attack and take 30 seconds at the top might be able to stay away, as Soler did in 2007 on the Galibier but this time it's not just for specialist climbers to go away. The final descent is tricky and will suit specialist descenders too.
Most of the GC riders are more concerned about tomorrow's stage which promises to be much harder.
The first col is very hard, the top part has short sections at 10% although it averages 6-7%. Some riders this morning will do a stint on the turbo trainer to be properly warmed up as the stage starts by immediately riding uphill and those wanting to get in an early move will need to be ready. The second climb isn't so steep with long sections at 4 or 5%. The finish is right at the foot of the descent, even the last kilometre is a steep downhill section with only the last 200m being flat.
Hard to pick a winner today. Maybe a break? The course doesn't just suit climbers but riders able to push a big gear uphill. We could see a decent size group of the GC contenders reaching the summit of the final climb, perhaps someone able to attack and take 30 seconds at the top might be able to stay away, as Soler did in 2007 on the Galibier but this time it's not just for specialist climbers to go away. The final descent is tricky and will suit specialist descenders too.
Most of the GC riders are more concerned about tomorrow's stage which promises to be much harder.
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I think Valverde will have a dig today, it's tailor made for him really...0
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A good summary.
The favourite on betfair is Luis Leon Sanchez who is a good descender and will probably be there if there are 30 in the leaders group and may be able to catch up if there are fewer and he isnt dropped by much. Second is Pellizotti who will want to defend his KoM and so may be in the long break. Third is Kirchen surprisingly. I picked him for PTP but was taking a fairly random stab. Maybe more likely to be with the leaders than LLS and then try to take risks but im surprised he is only just behind the first two in the betting. If anyone fancies another day of the favourites setting a mild tempo and it being a bunch sprint then Cav is able at 1000-1
Then again Efimkin is being quoted at 149-1 and he left the race a few days ago. 0 -
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Isn't he a speed merchant rather than a super technical rider? The last descent has tight bends and curves, 'tricky' as Kleber wrote.Cumulonimbus wrote:The favourite on betfair is Luis Leon Sanchez who is a good descender0 -
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the kom battle on the first climb is going to furious with all sorts trying to infiltrate for a break
anything could happen..."If I was a 38 year old man, I definitely wouldn't be riding a bright yellow bike with Hello Kitty disc wheels, put it that way. What we're witnessing here is the world's most high profile mid-life crisis" Afx237vi Mon Jul 20, 2009 2:43 pm0 -
I think Millar would like to go in a move but he'll probably be limited to team duties, helping Wiggins and VDV. Maybe he'll have his day on the road to Aubenas?
I picked Velits for the PTP but only because he seems keen to sprint at the end of mountain stages for, say 5th place and so could bag me a few points. Still, the stage is wide open. If you want a wild pick today, look for Yuri Trofimov, the former mountain biker is an excellent descender, the same goes for Haussler who is climbing very well. An open stage today, they start in five minutes' time.0 -
Can we stop discussing potential winners here? My PTP head is spinning!___________________
Strava is not Zen.0 -
Actually, its obvious. This stage is made for Sammy Sanchez ___________________
Strava is not Zen.0 -
Cancellara an outside bet? or will he be tethered to the schlecks for the day. I know phil has pipped frank on twitter then said watch out for andy. Does seem tailor made for the breakaway, millar, voigt any number of the french breakaway lovers?0
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Currently sat 3km from the top of the petit st. Bernard and who should ride past? Ricardo Ricco! In plain white kit (see? Dopers always ahead of testers, was black a year ago!). I can confirm, they let him keep the bike."In many ways, my story was that of a raging, Christ-like figure who hauled himself off the cross, looked up at the Romans with blood in his eyes and said 'My turn, sock cookers'"
@gietvangent0 -
Big break going away now, with Pellizotti, Martinez, Velits, Moncoutie, Karpets, Cancellara, Voigt, Casar, Fedrigo, Haussler and plenty more. They've got a minute's lead now, Astana chasing, presumably to keep a lid on Karpets and Velits.0
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Pelezotti and Karpets attack from the lead group.0
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I think Cyril Dessel is already struggling off the back...
.... along with Cav's gang..."Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.0 -
Karpets. Should have known it was a stage for him. Was trying to think of a strongman decent climber who could trial the last few kms and was far enough down on GC to be given the rope to win. Should have thought out my PTP a bit better.It's a little like wrestling a gorilla. You don't quit when you're tired. You quit when the gorilla is tired.0
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Blazing Saddles wrote:I think Cyril Dessel is already struggling off the back...
.... along with Cav's gang...
Sean Kelly said earlier that he'd read in one of this morning's papers that Dessel was suffering from tendonitis.0 -
Dessel also fell off the other day, he was saying in an interview.0
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Paul just said Rast and Murayev had led up the first 5km of ascenscion. I didn't know the Tour went as far as the mid-Atlantic this year.___________________
Strava is not Zen.0 -
Tony Martin has blown.0
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Menchov dropped. In the words of Ringo Star, "goodnight Vienna".0
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Must be a reasonably tough pace being set.Fckin' Quintana … that creep can roll, man.0
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In the space of maybe 50 metres, I just saw - man holding enormous inflatable penis, man in chicken suit, man in gorilla suit. You gotta love the Tour.0
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5 and a half minutes for the autobus already. Kenny Van H has no chance.0
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Customs searched an Astana van earlier.
Didn't find anything aside from some ugly bikes.Fckin' Quintana … that creep can roll, man.0 -
OOH, Astana riding a fast pace because Schleckette is on a bad day? He's quite far back.0
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Andy Schleck is in a very bad position. Why is he so far back and no where near his brother?0
