Stage 15 Pontarlier - Vebier *spoiler*

iainf72

Today the peloton are on a hilly training ride through the Alps. Grim weather forecast again.

Maybe there will be some action?

blazing_saddles

The last time a major tour climbed to the summit. Make of it, what you will.
I think it's fairly telling, when you consider DeVolder attacked from the base:

2008 Tour de Suisse Results

1 Kim Kirchen (Lux) Team High Road 5.29.23 (34.264 km/h)
2 Andreas Klöden (Ger) Astana
3 Roman Kreuziger (Cze) Liquigas 0.06
4 Sergei Ivanov (Rus) Astana 0.12
5 Stijn Devolder (Bel) Quick Step 0.20
6 Andy Schleck (Lux) Team CSC
7 Thomas Lövkvist (Swe) Team High Road 0.27
8 Igor Anton Hernandez (Spa) Euskaltel - Euskadi 0.29
9 Damiano Cunego (Ita) Lampre 0.31
10 Markus Fothen (Ger) Gerolsteiner
11 Christian Knees (Ger) Team Milram 0.38
12 Laurens Ten Dam (Ned) Rabobank

Cumulonimbus

The only weather forecasts i can find are for a dry day with sunny spells and patchy cloud. Temperatures reaching 20C which is much better than it being 30C IMO.

Not sure about today. Will anyone want to try and lift the pace on the second cat climb and then try to maintain it through the long run-in to the final climb? Cant see the second cat doing much damage to anyone who will be a threat on GC so i think that may be a waste of effort. Could be a breakway that stays away then - am sure that Martinez and Pellizotti will be watching each other as there are quite a few KoM points on offer.

I think that Saxobank will have a good go on the final climb. After they leave Martigny its a long climb up the valley (2%). I can see Cancellara and Voigt going on the front and trying to blast along hoping to tire a few legs. Then some big turns at the bottom of the Verbier climb before Frank takes over. Then Andy goes with 5k to go. I think Contador will be able to cover him though. Lance to lose 1 minute at the top.

Should finally be some good viewing.

DaveyL

Earlier today Christian Prudhomme said "We are now in the Alps, and I am hopeful the racing will be of a quality high enough to keep iain happy"...

frenchfighter

Hinault jumps into action again!

Cumulonimbus

Blazing Saddles wrote:

The last time a major tour climbed to the summit. Make of it, what you will.
I think it's fairly telling, when you consider DeVolder attacked from the base:

2008 Tour de Suisse Results

1 Kim Kirchen (Lux) Team High Road 5.29.23 (34.264 km/h)
2 Andreas Klöden (Ger) Astana
3 Roman Kreuziger (Cze) Liquigas 0.06
4 Sergei Ivanov (Rus) Astana 0.12
5 Stijn Devolder (Bel) Quick Step 0.20
6 Andy Schleck (Lux) Team CSC
7 Thomas Lövkvist (Swe) Team High Road 0.27
8 Igor Anton Hernandez (Spa) Euskaltel - Euskadi 0.29
9 Damiano Cunego (Ita) Lampre 0.31
10 Markus Fothen (Ger) Gerolsteiner
11 Christian Knees (Ger) Team Milram 0.38
12 Laurens Ten Dam (Ned) Rabobank

I was thinking that today's stage is similar to the Prato Nevoso stage last year - after flat stages, day before the second rest day. The final climb isnt as big though so maybe the gaps will be about half what they were then?

http://autobus.cyclingnews.com/road/200 ... s/tour0815

stagehopper

It already has all the feeling of a damp squib. I might change my PTP pick to Hushovd.

NervexProf

Boonen doesn't start

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/news-fl ... -de-france

No suprise to me..he has been tapping his way round thus far.

bikerZA

Fingers crossed for a bit of attacking up the Verbier, and a few time gaps.

Adieu

Cancellara in the break?

FJS

With Pelizzotti and Martinez again

Could be a nice Moncoutie - Vd Broeck duel on Verbier if this group stays away

Adieu

I wonder if the person who wins this year's tour is only going to win one stage at Ventoux? Maybe not even that...

emadden

Putting my neck on the line here... today will be a non-event... A group of 30 together at the finish my guess... The climb to verbier is too easy and there is nothing before it...

rockmount

NervexProf wrote:

Boonen doesn't start.

Hangover ??

mididoctors

emadden wrote:

Putting my neck on the line here... today will be a non-event... A group of 30 together at the finish my guess... The climb to verbier is too easy and there is nothing before it...

ok

seems possible but 2 questions

1) nocentini to hang on?

2) back end of the tour means smaller group than prato nervosa or early giro climbs..yes or no?

emadden

mididoctors wrote:

emadden wrote:

Putting my neck on the line here... today will be a non-event... A group of 30 together at the finish my guess... The climb to verbier is too easy and there is nothing before it...

ok

seems possible but 2 questions

1) nocentini to hang on?

2) back end of the tour means smaller group than prato nervosa or early giro climbs..yes or no?

If i were a gambling man I would put a few bucks on Nocentini to stay in yellow.. as for the groups, I think there are a lot of "fresh" legs in the bunch... Lets face it, the last week since the rest has been really easy.. So I think even though we are 66% through on the tour, many top contenders will have legs that feel like they've been only racing for a week... That means big group today... i think

Kléber

I can't see Nocentini in yellow. The final climb isn't that long but it's got a long section above 8%, it's harder than many think.

Astana doing lots of work now.

Eurostar

How about a petulant attack by Hincapie? After the overnight twitterstorm Garmin might be shamed into letting him get away.

Failing that, another doomed effort by Cuddles? If today's a non-event he might think this is his best opportunity. Can he ride in the cold? (And has anyone worked out why he had a little Lotto train going on the run in yesterday?)

FJS

If possible, even more respect for Flecha: he just bridged the 2 minute gap to the breakaway group all on his own. Rabobank had nobody in, again. Flecha will have no chance on Verbier against Moncoutie and Vandenbroeck, but still a heroic effort of team-morale boosting. Ten Dam or Garate should have been there..

avoidingmyphd

nocentini will have to put in the ride of his life to stay in yellow today. he was several minutes slower than the gc favourites up arcalis wasn't he? today someone will surely attack and the gc group will be faster than then, and whilst the pessimists amongst us think it'll all come back together, I can't see nocentini staying within several seconds of contador. so astana are going to have to finally accept yellow today unless they manipulate something pretty special out of this break!

oh, and eurostar: speculation elsewhere is that the little lotto train yesterday was connected with hincapie's hostility to evans' presence in the break on stage 8...

FJS

Those 2008 Tour de Suisse results suggest that gaps will be small, but also that there will be gaps; the top-12 all spread out with no group of more than 2 riders coming in. As you would expect of a steep but not very long climb.

Eurostar

avoidingmyphd wrote:

oh, and eurostar: speculation elsewhere is that the little lotto train yesterday was connected with hincapie's hostility to evans' presence in the break on stage 8...

:roll: There ought to be a handbags jersey this year.

mididoctors

emadden wrote:

[

If i were a gambling man I would put a few bucks on Nocentini to stay in yellow.. as for the groups, I think there are a lot of "fresh" legs in the bunch... Lets face it, the last week since the rest has been really easy.. So I think even though we are 66% through on the tour, many top contenders will have legs that feel like they've been only racing for a week... That means big group today... i think

i think there are less fresh legs at the front of the race... some riders have been hiding waiting for the third week but others have been over exposed IME.. Lance being one though he looks stronger.... I think this tour is quite brutal because a lot of contenders have made big efforts without any payback... just staying up with the race.

contador has hardly stuck his face into the wind.

and moncoutie has been half hearted...

Kleber wrote:

I can't see Nocentini in yellow. The final climb isn't that long but it's got a long section above 8%, it's harder than many think

I think so to..however if they all just look at each other or Astana has some team order nonsense a large group could come in together as Emadden suggests

if this was stage 7 then I would go with Emadden as its a easier climb than Arcalis and the gc group was everybody of note except contador...


I don't think Armstrong is going to be able to handle the accelerations and blow up... thats my prediction of the day. I think he is bluffing.

they have to have a real good go on the climb... numerous players are running out of tour to get onto the podium...

they have to race.

emadden

Eurosport were so bored with the Tour that they cut the coverage today :-) haha France 2 juast spent 10min showing that castle in Guyere... That means they are a few km from the climb of Col des Mosses... A second cat, p*ss easy climb from the Gruyere side

emadden

All these roads are in Cancellara's back yard

mididoctors

thinking about it depends on what sort of tempo Astana can hold on the climb..

are they strong enough to just neutralise the whole affair...?

Adieu

emadden wrote:

Eurosport were so bored with the Tour that they cut the coverage today :-) haha France 2 juast spent 10min showing that castle in Guyere... That means they are a few km from the climb of Col des Mosses... A second cat, p*ss easy climb from the Gruyere side

Is it not on eurosport?

N0bodyOfTheGoat

Live coverage on itv4 from 1400... If you want to watch in on the puter, register for www.tvcatchup.com

emadden

not for another 45mins on Eurosport international... i dont know about in the UK.. Touring cars on Eurosport

emadden

Update: The break is on the Col des Mosses now, about 10km from the top and they are tapping nicely on the gears. The bunch behind is being slowed/controlled by Bastana - they are across the whole road.


It is quite possible that this break will survive to the foot of the verbier climb at Sembrancher. if that is the case maybe we will see Andy jumping across to Cancellara

Eurostar

Classic sulk from Cav. Ned asked him if the loss of his green jersey chances would give him extra motivation to win in Paris: "Dunno...they'll probably just get me disqualified for eating the wrong cereal bar."