Today's discussion about the news
Comments
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Good to hear the hurricane went from a cat5 to 3.
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Must be why tents and caravan awnings famously never blow away in a stiff breeze.
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They wouldn't blow away if they had 8ft concrete pegs holding them down...
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Re Lucy Letby... Phil Hammond's not letting go. As time goes on, there seem to be more and more questions marks about the conviction. My bold prediction is that the conviction will be reviewed, as it does appear that the jury did not have enough information to reach a safe verdict, especially regarding evidence which might have cast doubt on the evidence of the key prosecution expert witness. Why that counter-evidence was not presented is intriguing, but it certainly seems there are strong reasons to doubt that the conviction is safe (or, at minimum, needs to be reviewed).
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Be careful not to take all of your info from one source Brian. This guy has made up his mind and is possibly selecting things that confirm what he thinks.
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Of course, but he's not the only person with these concerns... AFAIK he's got no connection with the Graun reporters in the quoted report (though he's obviously quoted it because it chimes with his worries).
The crux is not that the conviction is necessarily wrong, but if evidence that might have given jurors cause to doubt the only expert witness was ignored or withheld (for whatever reaons), then it would suggest it's an unsafe verdict. The current enquiry is starting with the premiss that the verdict was de facto correct, so is in no way helping (and probably hindering) an unbiased consideration of the matter, though obviously it's not within their purview (in effect) to retry the case. But, and it's a big 'but', if the causes of death were because of a ward operating way beyond its capability, and thereby a major institutional failure, an enquiry whose remit is to discover 'How did this murderer do these awful crimes?', will produce a report which is without any relevance whatsoever.
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She isn't going to get a retrial because the evidence was available and the defense chose not to use it (that's my understanding). The threshold for ineffective counsel is high (I think).
And to be honest, if you shine a light bright enough on any institution anywhere, you will find failings.
I'm personally reluctant to form any view without sitting through a few weeks' evidence.
(And this coming from someone normally happy to shoot from the hip based on almost no information, just a rare gift for intuitive judgments)
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Fair enough, it's just that normally institutional failings don't end up with someone in prison for multiple murders, so it's understandable that this case arouses extra interest.
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I notice you didn't disagree with my rare gift for guessing correctly.
Thank you.
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Takes me back to my old network days.
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Kuenssberg as professional as we've come to expect (watch till the end)... worth every penny of her £350k pa.
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Worth reading the whole tweet and listening to the whole interview.
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She really is rubbish. There are better people who can do this job…
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She managed not to say the quiet part out loud. Just.
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Yeah, it's the tiptoeing around it that's both infuriating and gives Netanyahu just enough leeway to carry on, taken in conjunction with the US's position. The history of antisemitism within Labour makes it (ironically) harder for current Labour to dare criticise Israel too strongly.
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One for @First.Aspect, given his admiration for what Scotland has achieved with devolution. Just think of their sources of wealth, such as daffodils, and tin, and tech giants setting up shop in places like Redruth, Camborne, and Bugle...
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Thing is, it's Cornwall, so despite the momentum they will get round to it drectly.
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At least they could discuss my modest proposal of scooping out the entire inland area of Cornwall, so the middle turns into one big beautiful lake, so you have a lot more scope for waterside properties, Camborne and Redruth disappear along with all the spoil tips, and all the stuff scooped out could be taken to the Somerset Levels to make them into mountains, and Bridgwater & Highbridge disappear. I can't see that there would be any objections.
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Actually I think the midlands are a better candidate for your plans.
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Maybe it needs competitive bidding for who gets the mountains.
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Or the borders of the river Exe
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Calling Mr Trumpet.
You've been following this very closely. Any thoughts or have you heard any additional context?
I am increasingly wondering whether the convictions, though possibly based on misleadingly presented statistics (which probably is around par for legal cases), are in fact about right.
This article reads to me that there would have to be three routine insulin assays that were each independently wildly inaccurate, for the defense to have an arguable point.
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As I'm not an expert in insulin stuff or statistics in order to be able to assess the importance of that evidence, I have no idea. It's clear that (understandably) the experts who appeared for the prosecution are keen that their expert credentials aren't undermined. On the other hand, obviously Letby's new lawyer will put opposing views, and as the linked BBC report says:
"There are two parallel universes in the Lucy Letby story.
One can be witnessed every day in Liverpool at the public inquiry into her case. Here, the matter of Letby’s guilt is settled. The question for the judge is why Letby was able to harm babies for so long.
In the other universe, doubts about the evidence used to convict her have been mounting. Leading statisticians and medical experts are arguing Letby may be the victim of a miscarriage of justice.
It is a surreal state of affairs: a legal system that has decided Letby is a serial killer - and a debate outside that questions her guilt."
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Interesting reading, even if it's only vaguely pertinent (or not at all)... but it does seem that there are parallels.
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Certainly there will be confirmation bias. I'm not an insulin expert either, but it seems to me that two orders of magnitude is a lot to ask routine tests to be consistently out by.
But a lot of the debate feels to me a bit like when I'm having a pop at twitter graphs to pass the time. The overall conclusions might be right, but for the wrong reasons, if you see what I mean.
The defense is analogous to arguing that each toss of a coin is 50:50, to explain a run of flipping a coin and getting 20 tails in a row.
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Yes, indeed.
But the thing is it's an asymmetric argument, as the defence does not have to prove she's innocent. Obviously the original case stands unless it gets retried, but if there's a strong argument that significant doubts were not made evident to the jurors as they should have been, then the case for a retrial, including the insulin evidence, becomes stronger.
I don't think any of the reasonable sceptics are claiming that she is de facto innocent (obviously her new defence lawyer is taking that line), but that statistics were misused to eliminate reasonable doubt. I think the concern is less about this actual case, but how it reflects on the judicial use of medical and other experts. The case highlights the issues well, with the experts not necessarily willing to embrace the possibility that they might be wrong, for the effect it could have on their professional credibility. Once they've hitched their colours to the prosecution or defence, they are more likely to stick to their guns (sorry, mixing metaphors) rather than admit weakness in their argument, so it turns into a confirmation bias exercise.
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The most peculiar thing I find is the lack of defense. She didn't deny that there had been insulin poisoning, because there seems to be no other reasonable explanation. The defense was that it wasn't her, which seems to be even weaker now than it was at the time.
I agree what is missing is context. Is an emergency in a premature babies ward in 40% of cases a lot? By how much?
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Yeah, lack of competent defence (given all the stuff that's being aired now) is problematic, and is not in itself an argument for a retrial.
Dunno about all the context questions, but Hammond's parallels with the Bristol case (which he was heavily involved with in revealing the failures) are that it was a ward acting way beyond its capabilities. In such circumstances, widespread harm is almost inevitable as individuals are not competent for their assumed roles. Incompetence, however, is not murder, even if the end result is the same.
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Ugh, the flood of utter f***wits including an actual MP trying to make out the guy who pleaded guilty to and was convicted of violent disorder was some sort of political prisoner/martyr because he died in prison. Funny how the hang em and flog em crowd suddenly go all feely when it's one of 'their own' who's banged up.
1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
Who? Telegraph, GB News, anti-social media, Musk, Neil Oliver?
Was expecting some bleating about freedom of speech, and liberty to burn down hotels when I heard the news.
utter f***wits indeed.
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