BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴

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  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 29,091

    Well that is a relief. I thought you'd gone all weird the other day. Good to have normal Stevo back 😁

    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • sungod
    sungod Posts: 17,129


    that's a list of usa companies, nonsensical to single out the eu as not producing equivalents when the rest of the planet hasn't either

    obviously it's nothing to do with the eu, the vast majority of non-eu countries have had little success

    sap (germany) is one, but that's eu of course, strong in it's niche is the uk gaming industry, also founded whilst in the eu

    what counts to create a new one is access to clever people, capital, market access/size, and in the case of all those you mention, a hefty dollop of luck, also good acquisition strategies for many of them

    all heavily reliant on being usa based to get going, and the massive advantage that gives vs. row

    the uk lacks capital and market size, especially post-brexit

    most non-usa successes get gobbled up, which is good for their founders/backers, but means they vanish into the new parent

    china has the prerequisites in abundance, but culture, language and politics are limiting ability to globalise, given local market size it's probably not a huge concern for them

    my bike - faster than god's and twice as shiny
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 60,605

    I thought I would set myself a challenge of posting something in Cake Stop that you wouldn't try to argue with. It was a tough one, but I nailed it in the end 😀

    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 60,605

    I specifically referred to 'big tech', which has grown massively in the 21st century and has been a big driver of profits, jobs and (for the Cake Stop benefit) tax revenues.

    You would think that the EU, with a larger population amd a similar sized economy to the US, might have managed one or two, but the EU big groups are very much 20th century, with lower growth etc. Which helps to explain the weak growth in the EU. However the EU seems more interested in regulating than allowing growth in this area.

    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 21,532

    They'll be some relieved small state Brexiters reading that.

  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 60,605
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,648

    Yeah. You know. The guy who saved the euro. Who solved the sovereign debt crisis. The guy who made the “whatever it takes” speech, probably the most important speech in and for Europe this century.

  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,648

    He certainly understands economies of scale. What is it about unifying and reducing regulation significantly in key areas that small staters wouldn’t like?

  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 60,605

    He certainly bought a stay of execution for the single currency.

    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,648
    edited September 10

    FWIW I think this report is really quite important, and it will really act as the destination objective for the EU. Obviously the challenge is arrange the politics to arrive there, and in all likelihood it will fall short, but this is the blueprint that the technocrats will be working towards.

    It is great that the EU is talking about productivity seriously, finally. He articulates very clearly how the US and China have marched ahead - it is industrial strategy and policy. It is about investment in industries that will be critical in the future - at a scale that, bluntly, only governments can do.

    He's right that the fragmentation of Europe works against it, especially when it comes to investment, but also the regulatory burden (as we are finding out very obviously here in the UK). Why shouldn't the single market have one market regulator?

    I wish Britain could have someone with the same clout, leadership, vision, and understanding of the macroeconomic landscape as Draghi to examine Britain's specific problems.

    Regardless however, the report makes plain that to compete with big nations, Europe ought to collaborate to compete as Europe, not as 28 countries, and I think that makes eminent sense in the current geopolitical and economic climate.

  • sungod
    sungod Posts: 17,129
    edited September 10

    as pointed out i above posts, the eu is a bunch of separate, relatively small (vs. usa. china) countries with their own languages, cultures and business practices

    small countries are unlikely to produce a big tech company for the same reasons all the non-eu are unlikely to

    i.e it's really nothing to do with the eu

    if the eu took control and became a super-state in order to emulate the usa/china, the torygraph would no doubt be moaning about the eu power grab and how it threatens plucky blighty

    my bike - faster than god's and twice as shiny
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 60,605

    But people on here keep telling me that the EU is one giant, homogeneous market...so at least we are in agreement that in reality, it isn't.

    There are some sizeable countries in the EU and yet none have produced anything to rival the US Big Tech companies. Regulation is a factor in my view.

    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,648
    edited September 10

    The problem you're running into Stevo, is the complaint that the EU overreaches on national sovereignty, which you often have articulated, is precisely why the market is not as homogenous and over-regulated as somewhere like the US.

    So which do you want? You can't have it both ways. Either you're OK with divergence and fragmentation and the associated costs, or you're not.

  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 60,605

    I'm just feeding back what people have told me about this massive market.

    Just because in reality it is a lot of separate markets with some common rules does not preclude EU over-reach.

    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,648
    edited September 10

    But it is precisely the resistance to EU "overreach" over national governments that prevents better market integration and regulation homogeneity.

    The same thing you have always complained about.


    So do you think Europe ought to have more homogeneity in market regulation or not?

  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 21,532
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,648
    edited September 10

    Who is saying it does?

    TBH, part of me is pleased the cost of balkanising the EU is being put forward, and the gains to be had by closer co-operation.

    The individual economies of Europe are not, relatively, as big as they used to be, and so the imperative of grouping together to achieve economies of scale are only getting greater.

  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 21,532
    edited September 10

    "Draghi demands €800B cash boost" is the headline. I think he is expecting some of it to be covered by the private sector, but nonetheless it is a lot of central government spending, and I'm not convinced that he is best placed to decide where that should be. That is true for all governments and the reason some argue so strongly for small government.

  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,648
    edited September 10

    It's €800bn of investment in addition to what the private sector can cover - to be clear.

    That is not spending on deregulation. That's additional. You could just read the summary of the findings and conclusions and then have a more constructive debate about it!

  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,648

    So what's wrong with the argument he puts forward?

    It's partly so big to cover the lack of investment for the last decade, and is a reflection that both the US and China are quite keen on heavy state intervention, in their own ways, to foster and encourage growth in new areas (tax breaks for Tech etc).

  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 26,973
    edited September 10
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,648
    edited September 10

    Lol Ireland wins both ways. Got the massive Apple investment and then ended up getting the tax bill anyway.


    "Don't worry lads, we'll appeal it" *sends appeal riddled with errors* "oh no, it turns out our appeal had errors, sorry Apple. Anyway, here's the address for the €13bn"

  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 21,532

    He wants to pick his sectors to invest money in. That is big government stuff. Some people like it, some people don't.

  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,648
    edited September 10

    Sure. But both US and China have done that successfully.

    American tax breaks are sizeable

    and Korea and Japan before that, etc etc.


    The reality is that this stuff is happening whether people like to admit it or not, so either you get on and play the game or you lose out in some theoretical argument.

  • sungod
    sungod Posts: 17,129

    it's a giant market, but it's not homogeneous - anyone who does business in different eu countries will know the diversity

    the primary advantage of the eu market is 'technical' standardisation, ce, gdpr, ema etc. - which the rest of the world also has to conform with to access the market (and why the ce mark continues to be accepted by the uk across many areas, while implementation of the brexiteer-lauded ukca mark has foundered https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-government-announces-extension-of-ce-mark-recognition-for-businesses) - and lack of the customs barriers, red tape, inspections, audit trail, duties, etc. etc. which impose extra cost/delay on imports

    fwiw i know a company that was trying to set up a cloud-based service for retailers (usa and eu pre-brexit), it was pretty slick, but they were unable to develop and manage compliance across the differences in how business must be transacted within each eu country, they gave up on eu and also exited uk post-brexit, they now only operate in the usa, it's a huge market

    imo if the uk were still in the eu, there'd be more chance of developing an effective tech policy, though it'd still be challenging, but post-brexit i see diminished prospects for both

    my bike - faster than god's and twice as shiny
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 60,605
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 60,605

    If you want a view on how far behind the EU have fallen in key areas, have a read of this.

    Yes it's the Torygraph but some of the facts are pretty telling: not sure if its pay walled but happy to cut and paste more this evening on if needed.

    Here's a couple of extracts:

    "“America innovates, China replicates, Europe regulates. It is an extraordinary picture of our situation, because it’s true,” said Italy’s prime minister, Giorgia Meloni.

    “In 1990 the EU of 12 states made up 26.5pc of world GDP. Today the EU of 27 states makes up 16.1pc, while the US is still at 26pc. We were a big weight in the world but that is no longer the case,” she said."


    "Mr Draghi said disposable income per capita in the EU had grown at half the pace of the US since 2000. The culprit is the technology sector. “The main reason EU productivity diverged from the US in the mid-1990s was Europe’s failure to capitalise on the first digital revolution,” he said.

    Mr Draghi said it is already too late to save cloud computing in Europe. America’s three cloud hyperscalers have achieved irreversible dominance, while Europe’s largest operator has only 2pc of the EU market. The EU could still keep pace in quantum computing and robotics if backed by a capital market capable of nurturing European champions. But the overall picture is calamitous.

    “In software and the internet, EU firms represent only 7pc of R&D [research and development], compared with 71pc for the US and 15pc for China ... The single market is home today to only four of the 50 largest digital marketplaces worldwide, while the 10 largest platforms serving EU citizens are owned by US (six) or Chinese (four) companies.”"

    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • sungod
    sungod Posts: 17,129
    edited September 10

    yes, exactly same as many other small countries, of which the eu is bunch

    again, the eu sets standards, not investment policy, there're some huge research investments, but they tend to be fundamental (of course there are important spin-offs that come from this), i'd say the existing rules against state subsidies may be part of the problem, but that's in the hands of the member states to come together and change how the rules are set

    it's up to the countries to act, either alone, in groups, or actually change how the eu operates, though in the case of the latter, it'll face the same pork barrel issues that the usa does whenever government throws money at making stuff

    as with 'levelling up' in the uk, it's a nice idea, but does it work? simply shifting things from the southeast to somewhere else, takes time, costs money and is inherently unproductive

    i'm extremely hostile to throwing taxpayers' money at business models that are unable to attract capital from people who'd like to see rather more roi than some gullible (or corrupt) politicians' pr, britishvolt for instance

    again, the usa is a big market that really is quite homogeneous, with lots of capital, and a regulatory/legal environment in many states that favours start ups

    changing uk/eu regulatory conditions would be a positive step, but there're still the constraints of real market size and capital, investors invest where the money is to be made - me predominantly usa, with a chunk eu/asia, hardly any uk, there's no sentiment involved, just what gives me the best return, mostly medium risk run by people paid to do it, but with a few gambles of my own in more volatile stuff, but uk? why would i when i can get bette roi elsewhere?

    another issue for the uk/eu, it all seems so tired and mired in the the past, it's nice for tourism, but we could do with less nostalgia and fantasy of bringing back 'the good old days', and more much ambition to do new stuff and screw the stupid rules - rules made up by a bunch of fuddy duddy self-serving bletherers who can't even manage to install voting buttons, let alone reinvigorate the economy

    my bike - faster than god's and twice as shiny