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I think most people will think the suspension stuff is pretty Westminster bubble-y. So far Starmer's ruthlessness has seemed to serve him well, so it makes sense that he'd carry on.
I also suspect the financial benefit of the cap is pretty marginal, given one way or another, Children living in poverty are likely to cost the taxpayer, and I think there's a sensible argument to remove it. Using your large majority to make slightly difficult decisions far out before the next election seems sensible.
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I suspect you are right with regards the suspensions.
I am sure Starmer will seek to remove the cap at some point. I guess that at present, a lot of the noises coming out of Labour are how things are much worse economically than they thought, and that the Tories have left the nation's finances in a right mess. If that is the narrative, he can hardly then lift the cap at the moment and contradict the govt line.
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The noises coming out of Labour 'how bad things are' is an effort to soften people up for some painful tax hikes in the near future.
"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]1 -
No need to soften anyone up. They're already priced in and we're all more than accustomed to tax rises anyway.
1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
The conservatives got 14 years out of "the last labour govt".
I guess labour are laying the groundwork to do similar.
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Priced into what?
"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Priced into working assumptions of what will happen in the next few years. It's been the direction of travel for the last five years so you'd be an idiot to think otherwise.
1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
And I've asked before which party do you think will impose a higher tax burden. I think we all know the answer is Labour and you'd be an idiot to think otherwise...
"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
I genuinely don't think there's much in it. They were planned to continue rising under the Conservative spending plans and that massive spending splurge still needs to be paid off. I can only assume the rises haven't affected you so much. In any case, it's irrelevant for the next 5 years at least.
1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
To be fair, Labour is the party of social democracy so it is generally baked in that they will increase taxes to fund increases in public spending. Surely anyone who votes Labour does so, in part, for this specific reason. If you are a Labour voter, you will generally tend to have no issue with a higher tax burden.
Anyway, Guardian suggesting Reeves will announce a £20 billion deficit and plans for tax hikes in October.
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This deficit was known about well before election day even allowing for the imaginary spending cuts that were used to justify the teeny weeny adjustment to employee NIC.
1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
Why do so many people, assume that spending more koney is the only answer to these things?
"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Everyone knows that lefties tax more - it's in their DNA. There are things Reeves may do which could which could well cost me a lot of money.
"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
IIRC those NIC cuts saved me about £160 a month. If you think that yours aren't worth having, I'll send you my bank details.
"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Doesn’t sound like you will have to rely on food banks if taxes are raised a bit.
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Sure, once upon a time that would be something you could rely on. Experience of the last 5 years would suggest otherwise. The changes over the last government have already already cost me far more than twiddling with employee NIC will ever save me. And as I said, it's a bit late to worry about what Labour might do if they win.
1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
That seems to show that private sector productivity has been pretty flat for 15 years and then got a bump when everyone discovered Zoom calls before dipping slightly. Notable when the private sector made the big gains.
1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
If they raised taxes every time a leftie said 'just raise taxes a bit' we'd be paying out more in tax than we earn. I pay plenty already.
Sin e you're keen on them, sounds like tax rise might not impact you too much, but maybe for a different reason?
"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
It shows the massive gap between private sector and public sector productivity. If we could get the public sector to be as productive as the private sector, would tax rises even be needed? Unfortunately this approach doesn't fit in with the leftie agenda.
"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Yes, the public sector performance is even worse. Neither is great. Would be interesting to see how they've calculated a single rate for the whole of the public/private sector. Clearly a lot of public spending is not remotely concerned with productivity - state pensions for example - and a great deal is paid to private contractors so which category do they fit in? Also what about policies like increasing defence spending to 2.5% of GDP: is that only a leftie idea post-July 4th? I mean, the MoD is notorious for throwing money away.
1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
Rick seems to have hacked your account.
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What is productivity in the public sector? In areas where there is a direct equivalent in the private sector, it's obvious, but where there isn't a direct financial output, is it realistic to directly compare?
Like, do we always want fewer police officers? Or is that measured differently?
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I'm assuming it's something like number of potholes per mile.
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Pay.
Total public service productivity is estimated by comparing growth in the total output provided with growth in the total inputs used. If the growth rate of output exceeds the growth rate of inputs, productivity increases, meaning that more output is being produced for each unit of input. Conversely, if the growth rate of inputs exceeds the growth rate of output, then productivity will fall, indicating that less output is being produced for each unit of input.
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We are talking about public services and productivity, not stuff like pensions.
"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Why?
"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Posting a chart where the inevitable questions are all going to be about the methodology behind the calculations.
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It's all public spending. It's a little difficult to see what is and isn't included when there's no reference to the source data.
1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
An impressive performance by Shabana Mahmood as Lord Chancellor. She even elicits a sensible question from Priti Patel, who doesn't behave at all like a loon. It's the kind of debate which starts to make the HoC look like a place where stuff is going to be achieved. It's almost like Starmer's Labour Party is teaching the Tories what government should look like and how the Opposition should hold them to account. Mahmood's impromptu dealing with multiple points is impressive.
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