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The big Coronavirus thread

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  • ProssPross Posts: 29,610
    fenix said:

    I think exams should be the least of everyone's worries. We've never seen anything like this in Britain. Something like a 15% fatality rate in the over 80s.

    Italy are taking it seriously. We should be doing the same now.

    Well worth reading this. He's not a quack.

    https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v42/n06/rupert-beale/short-cuts

    Surely the 1918 Spanish flu was worse? It also seemed to massively affect younger people.
  • fenixfenix Posts: 5,437
    He says we've seen nothing this bad since the 1918 flu. That killed something like between 3 and 5% of the population.

    It won't be that bad but we need to take action. Now.
  • awaveyawavey Posts: 2,368

    Italians are facing up to yet more stringent measures designed to combat the outbreak after learning on Monday they would be placed in lockdown conditions. The country’s prime minister, Giuseppe Conte, has now said shops – barring supermarkets, food stores and chemists – will be shut down, while companies must close all their departments that are not essential to production.

    Services such as hairdressers and beauty parlours will also be closed, along with bars and restaurants that cannot guarantee they can keep a distance of at least one metre between customers. Referring to the daily bulletins announcing the number of new cases and deaths, Conte said:

    We will only be able to see the effects of this great effort in a couple of weeks.

    Conte’s office said the new measures would be in force from Thursday until 25 March.

    Guardian.

    It does make you think we need to be acting sooner rather than later.
    but "the sooner" you act, the longer youve potentially got trying to keep everyone contained, its not going to be just a week everyone stays at home and then its all back to normal, theyve said this is a marathon not a sprint, and youd only need another patient zero to fly in from another country that hasnt dealt with it in the same way and the whole cycle starts off again, and we just have repeat outbreaks and repeat containments for the next 18months until a vaccine is most likely to be ready

    the CMO advising government says the timing is critical, too soon you get continued outbreaks and alot of likely chaos with it, too late and you overwhelm the health service with cases, so they are judging the moment to go to the next step, and we shouldnt be trying to second guess that point because we are most certainly not the experts in this or have all the information to hand.


  • awavey said:

    Italians are facing up to yet more stringent measures designed to combat the outbreak after learning on Monday they would be placed in lockdown conditions. The country’s prime minister, Giuseppe Conte, has now said shops – barring supermarkets, food stores and chemists – will be shut down, while companies must close all their departments that are not essential to production.

    Services such as hairdressers and beauty parlours will also be closed, along with bars and restaurants that cannot guarantee they can keep a distance of at least one metre between customers. Referring to the daily bulletins announcing the number of new cases and deaths, Conte said:

    We will only be able to see the effects of this great effort in a couple of weeks.

    Conte’s office said the new measures would be in force from Thursday until 25 March.

    Guardian.

    It does make you think we need to be acting sooner rather than later.
    but "the sooner" you act, the longer youve potentially got trying to keep everyone contained, its not going to be just a week everyone stays at home and then its all back to normal, theyve said this is a marathon not a sprint, and youd only need another patient zero to fly in from another country that hasnt dealt with it in the same way and the whole cycle starts off again, and we just have repeat outbreaks and repeat containments for the next 18months until a vaccine is most likely to be ready

    the CMO advising government says the timing is critical, too soon you get continued outbreaks and alot of likely chaos with it, too late and you overwhelm the health service with cases, so they are judging the moment to go to the next step, and we shouldnt be trying to second guess that point because we are most certainly not the experts in this or have all the information to hand.


    This is where I am. We have a 2 week shutdown period after which people will start ignoring the shutdown.

    We've got one swing to hit this home run for the best outcome here. Do those saying we are not doing enough really believe now is the right time when we have less than 500 positive cases and only 8 deaths?
  • ProssPross Posts: 29,610
    fenix said:

    He says we've seen nothing this bad since the 1918 flu. That killed something like between 3 and 5% of the population.

    It won't be that bad but we need to take action. Now.

    But your comment said 'we've never seen anything like this in Britain'.

    I still haven't seen / heard one expert on mainstream TV or radio say anything similar to some of the quotes in print or online media. They are still very much in the nothing to be overly concerned about unless you're elderly and / or have underlying health issues. Is this that TV / radio are toeing the official line or that the wider media are using hyperbole to get hits? I guess we'll find out within a month.
  • focuszing723focuszing723 Posts: 2,556
    awavey said:

    Italians are facing up to yet more stringent measures designed to combat the outbreak after learning on Monday they would be placed in lockdown conditions. The country’s prime minister, Giuseppe Conte, has now said shops – barring supermarkets, food stores and chemists – will be shut down, while companies must close all their departments that are not essential to production.

    Services such as hairdressers and beauty parlours will also be closed, along with bars and restaurants that cannot guarantee they can keep a distance of at least one metre between customers. Referring to the daily bulletins announcing the number of new cases and deaths, Conte said:

    We will only be able to see the effects of this great effort in a couple of weeks.

    Conte’s office said the new measures would be in force from Thursday until 25 March.

    Guardian.

    It does make you think we need to be acting sooner rather than later.
    but "the sooner" you act, the longer youve potentially got trying to keep everyone contained, its not going to be just a week everyone stays at home and then its all back to normal, theyve said this is a marathon not a sprint, and youd only need another patient zero to fly in from another country that hasnt dealt with it in the same way and the whole cycle starts off again, and we just have repeat outbreaks and repeat containments for the next 18months until a vaccine is most likely to be ready

    the CMO advising government says the timing is critical, too soon you get continued outbreaks and alot of likely chaos with it, too late and you overwhelm the health service with cases, so they are judging the moment to go to the next step, and we shouldnt be trying to second guess that point because we are most certainly not the experts in this or have all the information to hand.


    What's two weeks till inevitability anyway (Italy). I think after the cobra meeting, delay tactics will be announced. Trump will change his tune tonight too!
  • pblakeneypblakeney Posts: 16,809
    Trump did change his tune.

    No travel to the USA from Europe, except the UK. I expect this to escalate sooner than 2 weeks. I'd suggest that while this is not the time to panic, it is the time to prepare. Which will introduce panic......😱🤔😉🤣
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • rick_chaseyrick_chasey Posts: 57,370 Lives Here
    pblakeney said:

    Trump did change his tune.

    No travel to the USA from Europe, except the UK. I expect this to escalate sooner than 2 weeks. I'd suggest that while this is not the time to panic, it is the time to prepare. Which will introduce panic......😱🤔😉🤣


    Now that was not the stimulus people were expected.

    Not that it matters now but markets are gonna keep tanking after that.
  • focuszing723focuszing723 Posts: 2,556
    edited March 2020
    pblakeney said:

    Trump did change his tune.

    No travel to the USA from Europe, except the UK. I expect this to escalate sooner than 2 weeks. I'd suggest that while this is not the time to panic, it is the time to prepare. Which will introduce panic......😱🤔😉🤣


    Roll on the summer.
  • mrb123mrb123 Posts: 3,423
    Tom Hanks and his wife tested positive.
  • surrey_commutersurrey_commuter Posts: 14,599
    mrb123 said:

    Tom Hanks and his wife tested positive.

    How they describe their symptoms is exactly how my missus felt last week
  • ProssPross Posts: 29,610
    They took our health seriously at the fell race I did last night with an extra item of compulsory kit :wink:
  • fenixfenix Posts: 5,437
    Pross said:



    I still haven't seen / heard one expert on mainstream TV or radio say anything similar to some of the quotes in print or online media. They are still very much in the nothing to be overly concerned about unless you're elderly and / or have underlying health issues. Is this that TV / radio are toeing the official line or that the wider media are using hyperbole to get hits? I guess we'll find out within a month.

    Doctor in Italy on breakfast TV today saying their health system is almost at breaking point. They're just a couple of weeks ahead.

    Countries who prepare well - death rate might be 1%. Countries with poor plans - 5%.

    We need to flatten the infection curve. Do what the Italians have announced now.
  • briantrumpetbriantrumpet Posts: 7,617
    pblakeney said:

    Trump did change his tune.

    No travel to the USA from Europe, except the UK. I expect this to escalate sooner than 2 weeks. I'd suggest that while this is not the time to panic, it is the time to prepare. Which will introduce panic......😱🤔😉🤣


    With the lack of testing availability in the US, which seems like a deliberate attempt to cover up the extent of the virus's hold there, I think it's going to be an 'interesting' week or two in the US. Not sure if this has been posted yet, but it's an enlightening read, if not reassuring. https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
  • fenix said:

    Pross said:



    I still haven't seen / heard one expert on mainstream TV or radio say anything similar to some of the quotes in print or online media. They are still very much in the nothing to be overly concerned about unless you're elderly and / or have underlying health issues. Is this that TV / radio are toeing the official line or that the wider media are using hyperbole to get hits? I guess we'll find out within a month.

    Doctor in Italy on breakfast TV today saying their health system is almost at breaking point. They're just a couple of weeks ahead.

    Countries who prepare well - death rate might be 1%. Countries with poor plans - 5%.

    We need to flatten the infection curve. Do what the Italians have announced now.
    We are not 2 weeks behind Italy. It's rubbish to look at their numbers and then find the UK equivalent of positives and say that is how far behind we are. Both countries had patient zero at a similar time however Italy went weeks before catching up with contact tracing this patient. We knew all patient zero contacts (Brighton) very quickly.
  • focuszing723focuszing723 Posts: 2,556
    Pross said:

    They took our health seriously at the fell race I did last night with an extra item of compulsory kit :wink:

    It looks like and 90's rave.
  • ProssPross Posts: 29,610
    So with the US travel ban does that mean all people from mainland Europe needing to get to the US will just stage through the UK or are they not quite that dumb?
  • ddraverddraver Posts: 23,209

    mrb123 said:

    Tom Hanks and his wife tested positive.

    How they describe their symptoms is exactly how my missus felt last week
    Same here...
    We're in danger of confusing passion with incompetence
    - @ddraver
  • focuszing723focuszing723 Posts: 2,556
    Pross said:

    So with the US travel ban does that mean all people from mainland Europe needing to get to the US will just stage through the UK or are they not quite that dumb?

    Good point, Ireland too. They can't exactly reject them once they have landed in the US, will it be something we have to enforce through passport checks?
  • mrfpbmrfpb Posts: 4,542
    The travel ban is from Shengen area, so Stevo needs to import his EU chart! It's an odd decisio given the established links between USA and far east. Trump has also backtracked already due to outcry about imports and trade.
  • TheBigBeanTheBigBean Posts: 14,066
    Pross said:

    So with the US travel ban does that mean all people from mainland Europe needing to get to the US will just stage through the UK or are they not quite that dumb?

    No. It's based on whether you have been to mainland Europe in the last two weeks. They could quarantine themselves in the UK which isn't good news for the UK.
  • rick_chaseyrick_chasey Posts: 57,370 Lives Here
    Most offices here in the City that I have spoken to seem to be operating on the basis that next week at least half of people will be WFH if not the whole office.
  • ProssPross Posts: 29,610

    Pross said:

    So with the US travel ban does that mean all people from mainland Europe needing to get to the US will just stage through the UK or are they not quite that dumb?

    No. It's based on whether you have been to mainland Europe in the last two weeks. They could quarantine themselves in the UK which isn't good news for the UK.
    Can they tell that for EU citizens though? Couldn't they still travel visa free to the UK and jump on a plane here? Likewise, Brits may have been to Europe, gone home and then fly to the States or is there some system that picks up travel history even if no visa has been required?
  • LongshotLongshot Posts: 935

    Most offices here in the City that I have spoken to seem to be operating on the basis that next week at least half of people will be WFH if not the whole office.


    I'm hearing more and more reports along those lines. Strangely, again, the train was rammed this morning.
    You can fool some of the people all of the time. Concentrate on those people.
  • bompingtonbompington Posts: 7,674

    fenix said:

    Pross said:



    I still haven't seen / heard one expert on mainstream TV or radio say anything similar to some of the quotes in print or online media. They are still very much in the nothing to be overly concerned about unless you're elderly and / or have underlying health issues. Is this that TV / radio are toeing the official line or that the wider media are using hyperbole to get hits? I guess we'll find out within a month.

    Doctor in Italy on breakfast TV today saying their health system is almost at breaking point. They're just a couple of weeks ahead.

    Countries who prepare well - death rate might be 1%. Countries with poor plans - 5%.

    We need to flatten the infection curve. Do what the Italians have announced now.
    We are not 2 weeks behind Italy. It's rubbish to look at their numbers and then find the UK equivalent of positives and say that is how far behind we are. Both countries had patient zero at a similar time however Italy went weeks before catching up with contact tracing this patient. We knew all patient zero contacts (Brighton) very quickly.
    Just when I was starting to think that posts on non-brexit subjects were starting to look surprisingly rational...
  • rick_chaseyrick_chasey Posts: 57,370 Lives Here
    Longshot said:

    Most offices here in the City that I have spoken to seem to be operating on the basis that next week at least half of people will be WFH if not the whole office.


    I'm hearing more and more reports along those lines. Strangely, again, the train was rammed this morning.
    Well yeah. All your deadlines for stuff you can only really do in the office have moved to tomorrow.....!!!
  • tangled_metaltangled_metal Posts: 4,021
    A young work colleague was on Facebook with a friend whose dad is in Italy. Her friend sent her screenshot conversation where her friend was told what it's like in Italy. Basically "they're lying to us!"

    She's gone from it being a big overreaction to conspiracy theory, it's not just old or underlying conditions dying it's all ages and health status, etc. All on the back of a Facebook conversation.

    This is the state of the modern world! Perhaps it's time to get off this fairground ride. Facebook is your expert in everything. FFS! There's no reasoning with this work colleague now, she won't listen to anything else after Facebook chat. Pathetic!
  • fenixfenix Posts: 5,437
    Sorry TM - not getting that.
    Her colleagues dad is in Italy ? Is she believing him or not ?

  • pblakeneypblakeney Posts: 16,809

    Pross said:

    So with the US travel ban does that mean all people from mainland Europe needing to get to the US will just stage through the UK or are they not quite that dumb?

    Good point, Ireland too. They can't exactly reject them once they have landed in the US, will it be something we have to enforce through passport checks?
    U.S. border control begins in the country of departure. So anybody without a UK or Irish passport will be refused. Not that a virus respects passports, obviously.
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • kingstongrahamkingstongraham Posts: 17,781

    fenix said:

    Pross said:



    I still haven't seen / heard one expert on mainstream TV or radio say anything similar to some of the quotes in print or online media. They are still very much in the nothing to be overly concerned about unless you're elderly and / or have underlying health issues. Is this that TV / radio are toeing the official line or that the wider media are using hyperbole to get hits? I guess we'll find out within a month.

    Doctor in Italy on breakfast TV today saying their health system is almost at breaking point. They're just a couple of weeks ahead.

    Countries who prepare well - death rate might be 1%. Countries with poor plans - 5%.

    We need to flatten the infection curve. Do what the Italians have announced now.
    We are not 2 weeks behind Italy. It's rubbish to look at their numbers and then find the UK equivalent of positives and say that is how far behind we are. Both countries had patient zero at a similar time however Italy went weeks before catching up with contact tracing this patient. We knew all patient zero contacts (Brighton) very quickly.
    WE CAUGHT THAT ONE PATIENT EARLY AND THAT'S WHY WE DON'T HAVE ANY CASES IN THE UK NOW.
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