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So, how does Pogacar beat Vingegaard?

Lulu93Lulu93 Posts: 14
Hello all, forum newbie here! I'm a big fan of the TdF and started off desperate for Vingegaard to beat Pogi. I even cheered as he passed him on the Col du Granon. But then watching Pogi battle on to the top and being so gracious in defeat, and then seeing how he responded and attacked on every stage and was always so positive and cheerful, somewhere along the way I realised that I was actually team Pogacar.

So my question now, is how do you think Pogacar goes about beating Vingegaard next year? Can he beat Vingegaard next year? Assuming that they both are fit, what do Pogi and UAE need to do if they are going to beat Vingegaard?

I should stress that I really like Vingegaard too - I'm not at all sad that he won. I'm super excited to see them both (hopefully) battling again next year. But my impression was that Vingegaard was able to stick to Pogi like glue for a lot of the tour, then drop him on some of the steepest climbs. So how does Pogi counter this next year?
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  • shirley_bassoshirley_basso Posts: 5,430
    Hi Lulu - welcome to the forum. Hope you had a great time in France.

    Good place to look about thoughts on why Pog lost are here, so covers how he should have / could have won.

    https://forum.bikeradar.com/discussion/13118806

    Reality is I think he will struggle given the strength of Jumbo Visma.
  • TheBigBeanTheBigBean Posts: 16,865
    He could follow the Roglic template and win by nabbing bonus seconds.
  • phreakphreak Posts: 2,660
    A bit of perspective is perhaps needed, as before this race Pogacar has beaten Vindegaard pretty much every time they've started a race together. Even in this year's Tour, the head-to-head is 16/5 in favour of Pogacar.
  • Lulu93Lulu93 Posts: 14

    Hi Lulu - welcome to the forum. Hope you had a great time in France.

    Good place to look about thoughts on why Pog lost are here, so covers how he should have / could have won.

    https://forum.bikeradar.com/discussion/13118806

    Reality is I think he will struggle given the strength of Jumbo Visma.

    Thanks for the link, that's pretty much exactly what I wanted in terms of discussion!
  • focuszing723focuszing723 Posts: 4,283
    edited 26 July
    It's just great for the sport to have a couple good rivals, lets hope some more pop up. I would love to see Pidcock get in the mix too.
  • ProssPross Posts: 32,876
    Ultimately it was time lost blowing up on one stage so the answer is probably to be more conservative in his riding which isn't good from a fan perspective. Move to a stronger team might help too but he's tied up for the long term, hope his agent got him a good deal.
  • drhaggisdrhaggis Posts: 897
    I think that Pogačar lost the tour when trying to cover both Roglic and Vingegaard in Galibier, when Roglic was an unknown quantity 3m out. At least the future looks interesting...
  • DeVlaeminckDeVlaeminck Posts: 8,072
    phreak said:

    A bit of perspective is perhaps needed, as before this race Pogacar has beaten Vindegaard pretty much every time they've started a race together. Even in this year's Tour, the head-to-head is 16/5 in favour of Pogacar.


    Though I'm guessing a lot of that is because Pogacar has a better sprint on him - which is worth a little bit but only a little bit in a grand tour.
    [Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]
  • andypandyp Posts: 9,009
    Apart from coming second in the Tour last year. Where he was the only rider to trouble Pogacar on the climbs.
  • blazing_saddlesblazing_saddles Posts: 19,956
    andyp said:

    Apart from coming second in the Tour last year. Where he was the only rider to trouble Pogacar on the climbs.

    Well, if the 66 places between him and Pogacar, in the Tour de l’Avenir, despite his being almost two years older is anything to go by, then perhaps he best described as a slow developer.
    Meteoric, but slow.
    "Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.
  • rick_chaseyrick_chasey Posts: 62,479 Lives Here
    Great question.

    Ultimately I think Pog has the talent to beat Vingers if he plays his cards right.

    Firstly I think UAE need to get better at policing breaks to stop top guys like WvA go up the road and making life difficult. It’s in his interest for breaks to hoover up bonus seconds. This might require a better team. Probably.

    This is because, secondly, he needs to ride more conservatively and stop sprinting for stage wins / bony seconds.

    All the big GT winners comment he’s doing too much damage to himself making these big sprints. I suspect there is some truth in that.

    Thirdly he needs a more favourable route with more flat TT miles. Not that there’s much to split them but vingers is very light.

    Finally he needs to pick and choose his attacks better. One big one. On the final climb.
  • phreakphreak Posts: 2,660
    andyp said:

    Apart from coming second in the Tour last year. Where he was the only rider to trouble Pogacar on the climbs.

    When looking to see if that was the real deal though you'd look at following it up, and whether in Lombardia or Tirreno, Pogacar has quite comfortably had the upper hand. Indeed, coming into the race you would still have had him behind Roglic in the Jumbo pecking order.

    This is a man who came 6th in the Basque Country, behind the likes of Remco, Vlasov, and Dani Martinez. He was 2nd at Tirreno, but only marginally better than Landa. Indeed, prior to winning the Tour, the only stage race he had won is Coppi e Bartali, where he beat the likes of Honore, Schultz and Hayter. There's literally nothing there to suggest he should have been putting minutes into Pogacar.
  • ProssPross Posts: 32,876

    Great question.

    Ultimately I think Pog has the talent to beat Vingers if he plays his cards right.

    Firstly I think UAE need to get better at policing breaks to stop top guys like WvA go up the road and making life difficult. It’s in his interest for breaks to hoover up bonus seconds. This might require a better team. Probably.

    This is because, secondly, he needs to ride more conservatively and stop sprinting for stage wins / bony seconds.

    All the big GT winners comment he’s doing too much damage to himself making these big sprints. I suspect there is some truth in that.

    Thirdly he needs a more favourable route with more flat TT miles. Not that there’s much to split them but vingers is very light.

    Finally he needs to pick and choose his attacks better. One big one. On the final climb.

    So, in the words of Muse, change everything you are and everything you were.
  • Lulu93Lulu93 Posts: 14
    Pross said:

    Great question.

    Ultimately I think Pog has the talent to beat Vingers if he plays his cards right.

    Firstly I think UAE need to get better at policing breaks to stop top guys like WvA go up the road and making life difficult. It’s in his interest for breaks to hoover up bonus seconds. This might require a better team. Probably.

    This is because, secondly, he needs to ride more conservatively and stop sprinting for stage wins / bony seconds.

    All the big GT winners comment he’s doing too much damage to himself making these big sprints. I suspect there is some truth in that.

    Thirdly he needs a more favourable route with more flat TT miles. Not that there’s much to split them but vingers is very light.

    Finally he needs to pick and choose his attacks better. One big one. On the final climb.

    So, in the words of Muse, change everything you are and everything you were.
    I suppose that's a whole standalone question - can Pogi beat Vingegaard, while maintaining his boy-who-loves-riding-his-bike crazy attacking style? His slightly kamikaze approach to the whole thing is brilliant to watch.
  • gsk82gsk82 Posts: 3,195
    Very few riders back up their first tour win the following year. Could be too many distractions for the rest of this year for JV.
    "Unfortunately these days a lot of people don’t understand the real quality of a bike" Ernesto Colnago
  • hypsterhypster Posts: 1,212
    I still think Pogacar bonked on the Granon through getting distracted by Jumbo Visma's tactics, underestimating Vingegaard and trying to break him on the Galibier.

    Contrast the way that Pogacar rode the Granon where he was all over the bike and obviously bonking compared to the Hautocam where he was just knackered after repeated attacks. He still managed to finish 2nd on that stage.

    If he reflects on this Tour I suspect he will still employ his attacking style but with a bit more savvy and not underestimate Jumbo Visma and Vingegaard again. I think people forget the way he beat Jumbo Visma in 2021 with very little support from his team by just following the JV train and attacking at the right point.
  • mididoctorsmididoctors Posts: 12,501
    edited 26 July
    Depends on the nature of the race.the general answer is tighten up on stratergy and sloppy tactical thinking . He / UAE made a lot of poor choices . .... We should revisit this in October when we have a better notion of next year's course .
    "If I was a 38 year old man, I definitely wouldn't be riding a bright yellow bike with Hello Kitty disc wheels, put it that way. What we're witnessing here is the world's most high profile mid-life crisis" Afx237vi Mon Jul 20, 2009 2:43 pm
  • tailwindhometailwindhome Posts: 17,666
    Recruit a rider who is good enough to potentially win the Tour, but is content not to for £x million.
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    Is reachable from here.
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    And cures and healing wells
  • DeadCalmDeadCalm Posts: 3,953

    andyp said:

    Apart from coming second in the Tour last year. Where he was the only rider to trouble Pogacar on the climbs.

    Well, if the 66 places between him and Pogacar, in the Tour de l’Avenir, despite his being almost two years older is anything to go by, then perhaps he best described as a slow developer.
    Meteoric, but slow.
    Indeed. One has to wonder what changed over the winter of 2020 / 2021. His results were distinctly mediocre until that point. Then, suddenly, he was climbing and TTing with the best.
    Team My Man 2022:

    Antwan Tolhoek, Sam Oomen, Tom Dumoulin, Thymen Arensman, Remco Evenepoel, Benoît Cosnefroy, Tom Pidcock, Mark Cavendish, Romain Bardet
  • DeVlaeminckDeVlaeminck Posts: 8,072
    How quickly you all forget his prologue win at the 2018 Giro della Valle d'Aosta - nobody puts 10 seconds into Stefan de Bod without being pretty special...

    [Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]
  • blazing_saddlesblazing_saddles Posts: 19,956

    How quickly you all forget his prologue win at the 2018 Giro della Valle d'Aosta - nobody puts 10 seconds into Stefan de Bod without being pretty special...

    He obviously went too deep with that effort, as he DNF'd the first road stage!

    He hit my radar when he won the penultimate stage of the 2019 Tour of Poland, taking the leader's jersey.
    He blew up the next day and rolled home 14 minutes down.
    That's the year Pavel Sivakov won the GC.
    "Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.
  • roscoeroscoe Posts: 191

    How quickly you all forget his prologue win at the 2018 Giro della Valle d'Aosta - nobody puts 10 seconds into Stefan de Bod without being pretty special...

    He obviously went too deep with that effort, as he DNF'd the first road stage!

    He hit my radar when he won the penultimate stage of the 2019 Tour of Poland, taking the leader's jersey.
    He blew up the next day and rolled home 14 minutes down.
    That's the year Pavel Sivakov won the GC.
    Makes you wonder why Sivakov has not progressed into a GC contender. Or Tao for that matter, other than his Giro he's been fairly quiet.
  • kingstongrahamkingstongraham Posts: 20,985
    Move to Ineos.
  • jdee84jdee84 Posts: 246
    roscoe said:

    How quickly you all forget his prologue win at the 2018 Giro della Valle d'Aosta - nobody puts 10 seconds into Stefan de Bod without being pretty special...

    He obviously went too deep with that effort, as he DNF'd the first road stage!

    He hit my radar when he won the penultimate stage of the 2019 Tour of Poland, taking the leader's jersey.
    He blew up the next day and rolled home 14 minutes down.
    That's the year Pavel Sivakov won the GC.
    Makes you wonder why Sivakov has not progressed into a GC contender. Or Tao for that matter, other than his Giro he's been fairly quiet.
    I think everyone was probably surprised by that Giro win and I'd be shocked if he ever came close to winning another one, a top ten for him in another Grand Tour would be a great result.
  • DeVlaeminckDeVlaeminck Posts: 8,072
    edited 27 July
    jdee84 said:

    roscoe said:

    How quickly you all forget his prologue win at the 2018 Giro della Valle d'Aosta - nobody puts 10 seconds into Stefan de Bod without being pretty special...

    He obviously went too deep with that effort, as he DNF'd the first road stage!

    He hit my radar when he won the penultimate stage of the 2019 Tour of Poland, taking the leader's jersey.
    He blew up the next day and rolled home 14 minutes down.
    That's the year Pavel Sivakov won the GC.
    Makes you wonder why Sivakov has not progressed into a GC contender. Or Tao for that matter, other than his Giro he's been fairly quiet.
    I think everyone was probably surprised by that Giro win and I'd be shocked if he ever came close to winning another one, a top ten for him in another Grand Tour would be a great result.
    Has there ever been a grand tour winner with an otherwise less impressive palmares?

    Not a dig at him, when I first signed up for the Cycling+ forum a Giro win would have you number 1 in the threads about the greatest ever male British road cyclist (probably ahead of the likes of both Millars, Elliott, Hoban etc) but I don't think he's even been on the podium in any other stage race.

    [Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]
  • ProssPross Posts: 32,876

    jdee84 said:

    roscoe said:

    How quickly you all forget his prologue win at the 2018 Giro della Valle d'Aosta - nobody puts 10 seconds into Stefan de Bod without being pretty special...

    He obviously went too deep with that effort, as he DNF'd the first road stage!

    He hit my radar when he won the penultimate stage of the 2019 Tour of Poland, taking the leader's jersey.
    He blew up the next day and rolled home 14 minutes down.
    That's the year Pavel Sivakov won the GC.
    Makes you wonder why Sivakov has not progressed into a GC contender. Or Tao for that matter, other than his Giro he's been fairly quiet.
    I think everyone was probably surprised by that Giro win and I'd be shocked if he ever came close to winning another one, a top ten for him in another Grand Tour would be a great result.
    Has there ever been a grand tour winner with an otherwise less impressive palmares?

    Not a dig at him, when I first signed up for the Cycling+ forum a Giro win would have you number 1 in the threads about the greatest ever male British road cyclist (probably ahead of the likes of both Millars, Elliott, Hoban etc) but I don't think he's even been on the podium in any other stage race.

    Tour of the Alpes in 2019 (2nd behind Sivakov). He has 5 wins to his name, 3 came in that Giro and the other 2 in that Tour of the Alpes.
  • phreakphreak Posts: 2,660

    jdee84 said:

    roscoe said:

    How quickly you all forget his prologue win at the 2018 Giro della Valle d'Aosta - nobody puts 10 seconds into Stefan de Bod without being pretty special...

    He obviously went too deep with that effort, as he DNF'd the first road stage!

    He hit my radar when he won the penultimate stage of the 2019 Tour of Poland, taking the leader's jersey.
    He blew up the next day and rolled home 14 minutes down.
    That's the year Pavel Sivakov won the GC.
    Makes you wonder why Sivakov has not progressed into a GC contender. Or Tao for that matter, other than his Giro he's been fairly quiet.
    I think everyone was probably surprised by that Giro win and I'd be shocked if he ever came close to winning another one, a top ten for him in another Grand Tour would be a great result.
    Has there ever been a grand tour winner with an otherwise less impressive palmares?

    Not a dig at him, when I first signed up for the Cycling+ forum a Giro win would have you number 1 in the threads about the greatest ever male British road cyclist (probably ahead of the likes of both Millars, Elliott, Hoban etc) but I don't think he's even been on the podium in any other stage race.

    You mean other than Vindegaard himself who has only managed a single stage race victory at 2.1 level prior to his Tour win?
  • DeVlaeminckDeVlaeminck Posts: 8,072
    No Vingegaard has 3 podiums on stage races before this Tour - those are the races Wikipedia considers important enough to list on it's stage race matrix. He probably could have beaten Roglic at the Tour of Switzerland this year too.

    I missed TGHs Alpes podium as that race doesn't make wikipedia's cut.

    [Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]
  • jdee84jdee84 Posts: 246
    phreak said:

    jdee84 said:

    roscoe said:

    How quickly you all forget his prologue win at the 2018 Giro della Valle d'Aosta - nobody puts 10 seconds into Stefan de Bod without being pretty special...

    He obviously went too deep with that effort, as he DNF'd the first road stage!

    He hit my radar when he won the penultimate stage of the 2019 Tour of Poland, taking the leader's jersey.
    He blew up the next day and rolled home 14 minutes down.
    That's the year Pavel Sivakov won the GC.
    Makes you wonder why Sivakov has not progressed into a GC contender. Or Tao for that matter, other than his Giro he's been fairly quiet.
    I think everyone was probably surprised by that Giro win and I'd be shocked if he ever came close to winning another one, a top ten for him in another Grand Tour would be a great result.
    Has there ever been a grand tour winner with an otherwise less impressive palmares?

    Not a dig at him, when I first signed up for the Cycling+ forum a Giro win would have you number 1 in the threads about the greatest ever male British road cyclist (probably ahead of the likes of both Millars, Elliott, Hoban etc) but I don't think he's even been on the podium in any other stage race.

    You mean other than Vindegaard himself who has only managed a single stage race victory at 2.1 level prior to his Tour win?
    Tao GH has essentially been a professional for 9 years, Vingegaard had a full time day job up until 5 years ago.

    Tao GH won a Giro in October against a weaker field of GC contenders who couldn't time trial at all, albeit he won two Mountain Stages and finished 2nd in a preparatory race in the Alps the year before.

    Vingegaard finished 2nd in the tour the year before he won it, which is arguably a better achievement than winning that edition of the Giro.
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