So, how does Pogacar beat Vingegaard?

24

Comments

  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 20,511

    jdee84 said:

    roscoe said:

    How quickly you all forget his prologue win at the 2018 Giro della Valle d'Aosta - nobody puts 10 seconds into Stefan de Bod without being pretty special...

    https://youtu.be/o88SO1-JV-I

    He obviously went too deep with that effort, as he DNF'd the first road stage!

    He hit my radar when he won the penultimate stage of the 2019 Tour of Poland, taking the leader's jersey.
    He blew up the next day and rolled home 14 minutes down.
    That's the year Pavel Sivakov won the GC.
    Makes you wonder why Sivakov has not progressed into a GC contender. Or Tao for that matter, other than his Giro he's been fairly quiet.
    I think everyone was probably surprised by that Giro win and I'd be shocked if he ever came close to winning another one, a top ten for him in another Grand Tour would be a great result.
    Has there ever been a grand tour winner with an otherwise less impressive palmares?

    Not a dig at him, when I first signed up for the Cycling+ forum a Giro win would have you number 1 in the threads about the greatest ever male British road cyclist (probably ahead of the likes of both Millars, Elliott, Hoban etc) but I don't think he's even been on the podium in any other stage race.

    Cobo? I'm sure there were others.
  • No_Ta_Doctor
    No_Ta_Doctor Posts: 13,200
    Re Vingegaard's development, the main show of form was probably the Vuelta '20, where he did some really good work for Roglic. That at least should have shown what he was capable of on a climb, if not that he could maintain it for 3 weeks.

    Coppa e Bartali might not have had the biggest names to compete against, but he seriously ripped that race apart, winning two stages (and a 2nd place on the last stage where he attacked with Honoré) as well as the overall.

    He was comfortably beaten by Pog in T-A, but Pog always has strong early season form for the UAE tour.

    What might have been more apparent in Denmark during the 2021 tour (we followed this *very* closely) was just how careful JV were with him. They really tried to remove any pressure from him, stressed time and time again that he'd be given support (after Roglic abandoned) but that he was one for the future. I think as much as anything they probably worked hard on his psyche - he used to be throwing up level of nervous before races as a junior, and is known to have a serious case of feeling he has a duty to deliver to everyone who's supported him (Cav has the same, I think).

    Lastly, it might be worth noting that his birthday is in mid December - at jnr levels that means he's always been the youngest in his age group. We know from many sports that this can be an issue (it's been studied most in football I think).

    It's clear that something clicked last year though, and I think it was largely psychological
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  • mididoctors
    mididoctors Posts: 16,646
    TGH had health issues 2021 ...just coming back
    "If I was a 38 year old man, I definitely wouldn't be riding a bright yellow bike with Hello Kitty disc wheels, put it that way. What we're witnessing here is the world's most high profile mid-life crisis" Afx237vi Mon Jul 20, 2009 2:43 pm
  • DeVlaeminck
    DeVlaeminck Posts: 8,719

    jdee84 said:

    roscoe said:

    How quickly you all forget his prologue win at the 2018 Giro della Valle d'Aosta - nobody puts 10 seconds into Stefan de Bod without being pretty special...

    https://youtu.be/o88SO1-JV-I

    He obviously went too deep with that effort, as he DNF'd the first road stage!

    He hit my radar when he won the penultimate stage of the 2019 Tour of Poland, taking the leader's jersey.
    He blew up the next day and rolled home 14 minutes down.
    That's the year Pavel Sivakov won the GC.
    Makes you wonder why Sivakov has not progressed into a GC contender. Or Tao for that matter, other than his Giro he's been fairly quiet.
    I think everyone was probably surprised by that Giro win and I'd be shocked if he ever came close to winning another one, a top ten for him in another Grand Tour would be a great result.
    Has there ever been a grand tour winner with an otherwise less impressive palmares?

    Not a dig at him, when I first signed up for the Cycling+ forum a Giro win would have you number 1 in the threads about the greatest ever male British road cyclist (probably ahead of the likes of both Millars, Elliott, Hoban etc) but I don't think he's even been on the podium in any other stage race.

    Cobo? I'm sure there were others.

    Wasn't Cobo subsequently DQed and Froome given that Vuelta?

    I didn't check Pereira's palmares
    so he may be in the mix- I don't think he had that Tour taken off him did he ? - and that bald American chap that won a Vuelta does have a few decent podiums to his name so better than TGH.
    [Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 18,878



    Has there ever been a grand tour winner with an otherwise less impressive palmares?


    Froome?
    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 20,511
    edited July 2022



    Wasn't Cobo subsequently DQed and Froome given that Vuelta?

    jdee84 said:

    roscoe said:

    How quickly you all forget his prologue win at the 2018 Giro della Valle d'Aosta - nobody puts 10 seconds into Stefan de Bod without being pretty special...

    https://youtu.be/o88SO1-JV-I

    He obviously went too deep with that effort, as he DNF'd the first road stage!

    He hit my radar when he won the penultimate stage of the 2019 Tour of Poland, taking the leader's jersey.
    He blew up the next day and rolled home 14 minutes down.
    That's the year Pavel Sivakov won the GC.
    Makes you wonder why Sivakov has not progressed into a GC contender. Or Tao for that matter, other than his Giro he's been fairly quiet.
    I think everyone was probably surprised by that Giro win and I'd be shocked if he ever came close to winning another one, a top ten for him in another Grand Tour would be a great result.
    Has there ever been a grand tour winner with an otherwise less impressive palmares?

    Not a dig at him, when I first signed up for the Cycling+ forum a Giro win would have you number 1 in the threads about the greatest ever male British road cyclist (probably ahead of the likes of both Millars, Elliott, Hoban etc) but I don't think he's even been on the podium in any other stage race.

    Cobo? I'm sure there were others.

    Wasn't Cobo subsequently DQed and Froome given that Vuelta?

    I didn't check Pereira's palmares
    so he may be in the mix- I don't think he had that Tour taken off him did he ? - and that bald American chap that won a Vuelta does have a few decent podiums to his name so better than TGH.
    Yes, 8 years later, but this is cycling, so I sometimes overlook things like that.
  • blazing_saddles
    blazing_saddles Posts: 21,741
    edited July 2022



    Has there ever been a grand tour winner with an otherwise less impressive palmares?


    Froome?
    So, besides the fact that he finished the same as JV, 2nd in the 2012 TDF, we have:
    2011 Vuelta 1st.
    2012 Vuelta 4th.
    Then, before he won his first Tour in 2013, he was 2nd in T-A, 1st in Oman, 1st in Romandie and 1st in the Dauphine.

    Maybe you want to re-think?
    "Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 26,132



    Has there ever been a grand tour winner with an otherwise less impressive palmares?


    Froome?
    So, besides the fact that he finished the same as JV, 2nd in the 2012 TDF, we have:
    2011 Vuelta 1st.
    2012 Vuelta 4th.
    Then, before he won his first Tour in 2013, he was 2nd in T-A, 1st in Oman, 1st in Romandie and 1st in the Dauphine.

    Maybe you want to re-think?
    At the time, he hadn't got 1st place in the 2011 vuelta yet.
  • blazing_saddles
    blazing_saddles Posts: 21,741
    edited July 2022



    Has there ever been a grand tour winner with an otherwise less impressive palmares?


    Froome?
    So, besides the fact that he finished the same as JV, 2nd in the 2012 TDF, we have:
    2011 Vuelta 1st.
    2012 Vuelta 4th.
    Then, before he won his first Tour in 2013, he was 2nd in T-A, 1st in Oman, 1st in Romandie and 1st in the Dauphine.

    Maybe you want to re-think?
    At the time, he hadn't got 1st place in the 2011 vuelta yet.
    Okay so 2nd.
    Doesn’t make a great deal of difference to the point though.
    "Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.
  • m.r.m.
    m.r.m. Posts: 3,312

    Re Vingegaard's development, the main show of form was probably the Vuelta '20, where he did some really good work for Roglic. That at least should have shown what he was capable of on a climb, if not that he could maintain it for 3 weeks.

    Coppa e Bartali might not have had the biggest names to compete against, but he seriously ripped that race apart, winning two stages (and a 2nd place on the last stage where he attacked with Honoré) as well as the overall.

    He was comfortably beaten by Pog in T-A, but Pog always has strong early season form for the UAE tour.

    What might have been more apparent in Denmark during the 2021 tour (we followed this *very* closely) was just how careful JV were with him. They really tried to remove any pressure from him, stressed time and time again that he'd be given support (after Roglic abandoned) but that he was one for the future. I think as much as anything they probably worked hard on his psyche - he used to be throwing up level of nervous before races as a junior, and is known to have a serious case of feeling he has a duty to deliver to everyone who's supported him (Cav has the same, I think).

    Lastly, it might be worth noting that his birthday is in mid December - at jnr levels that means he's always been the youngest in his age group. We know from many sports that this can be an issue (it's been studied most in football I think).

    It's clear that something clicked last year though, and I think it was largely psychological

    Development is also not linear. Some people are world beaters at junior level, but don't keep progressing. Others are good, but become really special later on. And a rare few are always elite and remain elite (Ronaldo, Ronaldo, Messi, Lebron James, MvdP...)
    Mohoric beat Alaphilippe at juniors, Kwiatkowski beat Sagan regularly (though who would take his stellar palmares over Sagan's at the pro's), MvdP mostly beat WVA, but now it seems WVA has taken a step beyond MvdP (and beyond pretty much everyone else).
    That is what makes scouting so difficult. Vingegaard always had it in him. He just needed to put it all together.
    PTP Champion 2019, 2022 & 2023
  • Lulu93
    Lulu93 Posts: 16
    m.r.m. said:



    Development is also not linear. Some people are world beaters at junior level, but don't keep progressing. Others are good, but become really special later on. And a rare few are always elite and remain elite (Ronaldo, Ronaldo, Messi, Lebron James, MvdP...)
    Mohoric beat Alaphilippe at juniors, Kwiatkowski beat Sagan regularly (though who would take his stellar palmares over Sagan's at the pro's), MvdP mostly beat WVA, but now it seems WVA has taken a step beyond MvdP (and beyond pretty much everyone else).
    That is what makes scouting so difficult. Vingegaard always had it in him. He just needed to put it all together.

    I agree with this. I don't see anything odd or suspicious about Vingegaard's development. It just happens at different speeds for different people.

  • blazing_saddles
    blazing_saddles Posts: 21,741
    Lulu93 said:

    m.r.m. said:



    Development is also not linear. Some people are world beaters at junior level, but don't keep progressing. Others are good, but become really special later on. And a rare few are always elite and remain elite (Ronaldo, Ronaldo, Messi, Lebron James, MvdP...)
    Mohoric beat Alaphilippe at juniors, Kwiatkowski beat Sagan regularly (though who would take his stellar palmares over Sagan's at the pro's), MvdP mostly beat WVA, but now it seems WVA has taken a step beyond MvdP (and beyond pretty much everyone else).
    That is what makes scouting so difficult. Vingegaard always had it in him. He just needed to put it all together.

    I agree with this. I don't see anything odd or suspicious about Vingegaard's development. It just happens at different speeds for different people.

    CQ's scoring "development" graphs for the two main protagonists.
    Guess which one is which.






    "Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.
  • andyp
    andyp Posts: 10,069

    No Vingegaard has 3 podiums on stage races before this Tour - those are the races Wikipedia considers important enough to list on it's stage race matrix. He probably could have beaten Roglic at the Tour of Switzerland this year too.

    I missed TGHs Alpes podium as that race doesn't make wikipedia's cut.

    That would've been impressive, given that neither of them rode it.
  • DeadCalm
    DeadCalm Posts: 4,099

    Lulu93 said:

    m.r.m. said:



    Development is also not linear. Some people are world beaters at junior level, but don't keep progressing. Others are good, but become really special later on. And a rare few are always elite and remain elite (Ronaldo, Ronaldo, Messi, Lebron James, MvdP...)
    Mohoric beat Alaphilippe at juniors, Kwiatkowski beat Sagan regularly (though who would take his stellar palmares over Sagan's at the pro's), MvdP mostly beat WVA, but now it seems WVA has taken a step beyond MvdP (and beyond pretty much everyone else).
    That is what makes scouting so difficult. Vingegaard always had it in him. He just needed to put it all together.

    I agree with this. I don't see anything odd or suspicious about Vingegaard's development. It just happens at different speeds for different people.

    CQ's scoring "development" graphs for the two main protagonists.
    Guess which one is which.






    If one were to be trying to make a case for the defence (I want him to be clean, but have my suspicions), I'd suggest the 2020 Vuelta is by far the strongest pillar. Didn't someone (Froome?) insist that a hard Vuelta was key to a successful following season? In 2020, not only did Vingegaard put in a significant amount of effort on behalf of Roglic (penultimate mountain domestique before Kuss, if I recall correctly), but it was much later in the year than usual. A possible explanation for his stellar start to 2021, which gave him the confidence boost he needed?
    Team My Man 2022:

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  • DeVlaeminck
    DeVlaeminck Posts: 8,719
    andyp said:

    No Vingegaard has 3 podiums on stage races before this Tour - those are the races Wikipedia considers important enough to list on it's stage race matrix. He probably could have beaten Roglic at the Tour of Switzerland this year too.

    I missed TGHs Alpes podium as that race doesn't make wikipedia's cut.

    That would've been impressive, given that neither of them rode it.
    Good spot !!

    He probably could have beaten him at the Dauphine .
    [Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 18,878
    edited July 2022



    Has there ever been a grand tour winner with an otherwise less impressive palmares?


    Froome?
    So, besides the fact that he finished the same as JV, 2nd in the 2012 TDF, we have:
    2011 Vuelta 1st.
    2012 Vuelta 4th.
    Then, before he won his first Tour in 2013, he was 2nd in T-A, 1st in Oman, 1st in Romandie and 1st in the Dauphine.

    Maybe you want to re-think?
    Rethink the linear nature of time?

    Prior to the 2011 Vuelta Froome has a palmares full of nothing.
    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,137
    edited July 2022



    Has there ever been a grand tour winner with an otherwise less impressive palmares?


    Froome?
    So, besides the fact that he finished the same as JV, 2nd in the 2012 TDF, we have:
    2011 Vuelta 1st.
    2012 Vuelta 4th.
    Then, before he won his first Tour in 2013, he was 2nd in T-A, 1st in Oman, 1st in Romandie and 1st in the Dauphine.

    Maybe you want to re-think?
    Rethink the linear nature of time?

    Prior to the 2011 Vuelta Froome has a palmares full of nothing.

    But by the time he won that Vuelta he had six Grand Tour wins. The 2011 Vuelta is GT designed by Christopher Nolan
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 18,878
    RichN95. said:



    Has there ever been a grand tour winner with an otherwise less impressive palmares?


    Froome?
    So, besides the fact that he finished the same as JV, 2nd in the 2012 TDF, we have:
    2011 Vuelta 1st.
    2012 Vuelta 4th.
    Then, before he won his first Tour in 2013, he was 2nd in T-A, 1st in Oman, 1st in Romandie and 1st in the Dauphine.

    Maybe you want to re-think?
    Rethink the linear nature of time?

    Prior to the 2011 Vuelta Froome has a palmares full of nothing.

    But by the time he won the Vuelta he had six Grand Tour wins
    He was winning GTs in his sleep by that point.



    To be fair I think I misunderstood what and who was actually being discussed there
    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • blazing_saddles
    blazing_saddles Posts: 21,741



    Has there ever been a grand tour winner with an otherwise less impressive palmares?


    Froome?
    So, besides the fact that he finished the same as JV, 2nd in the 2012 TDF, we have:
    2011 Vuelta 1st.
    2012 Vuelta 4th.
    Then, before he won his first Tour in 2013, he was 2nd in T-A, 1st in Oman, 1st in Romandie and 1st in the Dauphine.

    Maybe you want to re-think?
    Rethink the linear nature of time?

    Prior to the 2011 Vuelta Froome has a palmares full of nothing.
    Okay, if you want to move the goalposts to u23, which is what we are now talking about, things don't really change.

    Froome's first full European season as a junior was 2007: 2 wins and 4 podiums.

    At the same age, Vingegaard won that prologue and a team time trial.
    1 podium in a road stage.
    "Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.
  • focuszing723
    focuszing723 Posts: 7,193
    Meanwhile, Pog's 23, on a multi million pound contract and seems to be enjoying his racing.
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 18,878



    Has there ever been a grand tour winner with an otherwise less impressive palmares?


    Froome?
    So, besides the fact that he finished the same as JV, 2nd in the 2012 TDF, we have:
    2011 Vuelta 1st.
    2012 Vuelta 4th.
    Then, before he won his first Tour in 2013, he was 2nd in T-A, 1st in Oman, 1st in Romandie and 1st in the Dauphine.

    Maybe you want to re-think?
    Rethink the linear nature of time?

    Prior to the 2011 Vuelta Froome has a palmares full of nothing.
    Okay, if you want to move the goalposts to u23, which is what we are now talking about, things don't really change.

    Froome's first full European season as a junior was 2007: 2 wins and 4 podiums.

    At the same age, Vingegaard won that prologue and a team time trial.
    1 podium in a road stage.
    That's impressive from Froome alright now.

    Clear and obvious gap in quality there.



    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • Lulu93
    Lulu93 Posts: 16
    Are ppl insinuating Vingegaard is doping? I can't quite tell.

    I don't think he is, personally, but that's based on nothing more than blind optimism and the fact that he seems like a really nice guy. I'd rather keep the faith until someone presents me with irrefutable evidence. Ditto Pogi and WvA.
  • andyp
    andyp Posts: 10,069
    Nice guys dope too, of course.

    Not that I think Vingegaard is doping, necessarily, it's just that using whether seem nice or not is not a decent criteria.

    As for irrefutable evidence, there was lots of that for Armstrong but people still believed he was clean.
  • DeVlaeminck
    DeVlaeminck Posts: 8,719
    It's possible certain riders just respond better to certain modern training techniques and supplements such as altitude camps and ketones.

    These things only really come into a rider's world at world tour level and possibly Vingegaard has just benefitted more than others either through Jumbo just being better at finding marginal gains (not all teams are equal) or because his physiology just responds unusually well to cutting edge rider preparation. Or maybe Vingegaard's training was just not great before he went to Jumbo - who knows.

    The other thing is Vingegaard is not really a late developer in historical terms - it's just that we now have some unusually early developers. If Ving has trodden a more traditional path it's not really surprising if his breakthrough has come at a more traditional age. Or yes he might be juiced off his t its - but I don't really think he is - so few are getting busted these days compared to say 15 years ago it just seems unlikely doping plays anything like the same role.
    [Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]
  • blazing_saddles
    blazing_saddles Posts: 21,741
    Lulu93 said:

    Are ppl insinuating Vingegaard is doping? I can't quite tell.

    I don't think he is, personally, but that's based on nothing more than blind optimism and the fact that he seems like a really nice guy. I'd rather keep the faith until someone presents me with irrefutable evidence. Ditto Pogi and WvA.

    Nah.
    It just comes with the territory. Payback time for all the shiite thrown at Sky during the Froome and Wiggins years.
    Much of which came from across the channel and the land of Jumbo. ;)
    "Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 72,244
    Main question you need to ask is doping with what.

    Back in the bad old days the rumours were always specific to the drug.
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 18,878
    For clarity, I'm not suggesting anyone is doping


    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • Lulu93
    Lulu93 Posts: 16
    edited July 2022
    andyp said:

    Nice guys dope too, of course.

    Not that I think Vingegaard is doping, necessarily, it's just that using whether seem nice or not is not a decent criteria.

    As for irrefutable evidence, there was lots of that for Armstrong but people still believed he was clean.

    Oh I know it's not exactly solid evidence, but people seem to be making insinuations without anything to back it up other than Jonas being good at cycling, so I'm not sure it's any worse than that!

    We had the same questions about Pogi after he hammered Roglic on that time trial in 2020, but there has never been anything to back them up. And maybe I'll be proved wrong in 10 years time, but I doubt there ever will be.
  • Dorset_Boy
    Dorset_Boy Posts: 6,877
    I'm less concerned about Jonas's performance than wonder Wout's. Day after day forcing the break, and still there as last man for his team leader on HC climbs......

    On Hautacam he literally parked up, then rode comfortably with Poig and beat G.....
    He then wins the TT the next day.....

    I really, really hope it's just he is unbelievably talented.
  • amrushton
    amrushton Posts: 1,249
    edited July 2022
    Pog had 1 bad day. had he stayed on the wheel he may have won. But right now that JV team is the one to beat. just having WvA about cools everything down. put him in the break and people are sitting up. Put him on the front and he can set a high tempo or just close a gap. UAE had a weaker team - most of the others did too. Something is happening in that team. LaPorte had 8 years of also ran at Cofidis now he's A grade. Re Froome, lets not forget he was finishing at Sky in 2011(?) then he suddenly lifted the game. Wiggins was on The Move last week and talked about his Tour win. His focus was on that 2012 Tour to the exclusion of everything else. Maybe thats the thing at JV. You have a team of high level players and everyone wants to lift it higher. QS have had some stellar days doing that.
    Who would have thought that Alaphillipe would have the MJ as long as he did and Richard Moore famously said that Thomas wouldnt win the TdF the year he won it