Afghanistan

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  • MattFalle
    MattFalle Posts: 11,644
  • MattFalle said:

    I read somewhere that all the western stuff requires an absurd amount of maintenance, and really it is foolish for the locals to rely on anything other than an AK.

    I read that the Americans used to have 17,000 maintenance guys in Afghanistan which is why they were relaxed about leaving it behind. That and it would have taken them years to do so.
    This is the equivalent of the "standing army <------> drafted army" slider on Hearts of Iron 2, for anyone who plays strategic war sims.

    Life imitates art etc.
    no idea what that is a reference to but they used to reckon it takes 7 men to keep one frontline soldier going.

    Alongside the usual stats that we have ore Admirals than ships here are some to boggle the mind

    Total retained personnel in armed forces 2018
    Navy - 29,300
    RAF - 30,350
    Civilians - 56,870
    Army - 77,120

    bear in mind that only probably a third of those are combat arms it shows how weak Britain's forces actually are....
    Which gets us to about 10,000 and being lucky to secure Kabul airport
  • MattFalle
    MattFalle Posts: 11,644

    MattFalle said:

    I read somewhere that all the western stuff requires an absurd amount of maintenance, and really it is foolish for the locals to rely on anything other than an AK.

    I read that the Americans used to have 17,000 maintenance guys in Afghanistan which is why they were relaxed about leaving it behind. That and it would have taken them years to do so.
    This is the equivalent of the "standing army <------> drafted army" slider on Hearts of Iron 2, for anyone who plays strategic war sims.

    Life imitates art etc.
    no idea what that is a reference to but they used to reckon it takes 7 men to keep one frontline soldier going.

    Alongside the usual stats that we have ore Admirals than ships here are some to boggle the mind

    Total retained personnel in armed forces 2018
    Navy - 29,300
    RAF - 30,350
    Civilians - 56,870
    Army - 77,120

    bear in mind that only probably a third of those are combat arms it shows how weak Britain's forces actually are....
    Which gets us to about 10,000 and being lucky to secure Kabul airport
    Bear in mind that a third of that number will be biffed, some more signed off so won't go, some on courses, some will fail the fitness tests, etc etc.

    And apart from the RRF no one will have done PDT so they can't go anyway.

    You may be able to secure Costa or Pret, but the whole airport?

    .
    The camera down the willy isn't anything like as bad as it sounds.
  • DeVlaeminck
    DeVlaeminck Posts: 9,108
    We do spend a reasonable amount on defence relative to other European countries.
    [Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]
  • We do spend a reasonable amount on defence relative to other European countries.

    Two aircraft carriers stacked with the world’s most expensive jets does not help when the country is landlocked. And we don’t have enough support ships to use them without US support.
  • MattFalle said:

    MattFalle said:

    I read somewhere that all the western stuff requires an absurd amount of maintenance, and really it is foolish for the locals to rely on anything other than an AK.

    I read that the Americans used to have 17,000 maintenance guys in Afghanistan which is why they were relaxed about leaving it behind. That and it would have taken them years to do so.
    This is the equivalent of the "standing army <------> drafted army" slider on Hearts of Iron 2, for anyone who plays strategic war sims.

    Life imitates art etc.
    no idea what that is a reference to but they used to reckon it takes 7 men to keep one frontline soldier going.

    Alongside the usual stats that we have ore Admirals than ships here are some to boggle the mind

    Total retained personnel in armed forces 2018
    Navy - 29,300
    RAF - 30,350
    Civilians - 56,870
    Army - 77,120

    bear in mind that only probably a third of those are combat arms it shows how weak Britain's forces actually are....
    Which gets us to about 10,000 and being lucky to secure Kabul airport
    Bear in mind that a third of that number will be biffed, some more signed off so won't go, some on courses, some will fail the fitness tests, etc etc.

    And apart from the RRF no one will have done PDT so they can't go anyway.

    You may be able to secure Costa or Pret, but the whole airport?

    Enough of your reality I am off to listen to MPs whose view of the world is firmly in the 1800s
  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 29,811

    MattFalle said:

    MattFalle said:

    I read somewhere that all the western stuff requires an absurd amount of maintenance, and really it is foolish for the locals to rely on anything other than an AK.

    I read that the Americans used to have 17,000 maintenance guys in Afghanistan which is why they were relaxed about leaving it behind. That and it would have taken them years to do so.
    This is the equivalent of the "standing army <------> drafted army" slider on Hearts of Iron 2, for anyone who plays strategic war sims.

    Life imitates art etc.
    no idea what that is a reference to but they used to reckon it takes 7 men to keep one frontline soldier going.

    Alongside the usual stats that we have ore Admirals than ships here are some to boggle the mind

    Total retained personnel in armed forces 2018
    Navy - 29,300
    RAF - 30,350
    Civilians - 56,870
    Army - 77,120

    bear in mind that only probably a third of those are combat arms it shows how weak Britain's forces actually are....
    Which gets us to about 10,000 and being lucky to secure Kabul airport
    Bear in mind that a third of that number will be biffed, some more signed off so won't go, some on courses, some will fail the fitness tests, etc etc.

    And apart from the RRF no one will have done PDT so they can't go anyway.

    You may be able to secure Costa or Pret, but the whole airport?

    Enough of your reality I am off to listen to MPs whose view of the world is firmly in the 1800s
    Someone else commented that the Commons debate was as much about coming to terms with our place in the world as it was Afghanistan.
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • john80
    john80 Posts: 2,965

    MattFalle said:

    I read somewhere that all the western stuff requires an absurd amount of maintenance, and really it is foolish for the locals to rely on anything other than an AK.

    I read that the Americans used to have 17,000 maintenance guys in Afghanistan which is why they were relaxed about leaving it behind. That and it would have taken them years to do so.
    This is the equivalent of the "standing army <------> drafted army" slider on Hearts of Iron 2, for anyone who plays strategic war sims.

    Life imitates art etc.
    no idea what that is a reference to but they used to reckon it takes 7 men to keep one frontline soldier going.

    Alongside the usual stats that we have ore Admirals than ships here are some to boggle the mind

    Total retained personnel in armed forces 2018
    Navy - 29,300
    RAF - 30,350
    Civilians - 56,870
    Army - 77,120

    bear in mind that only probably a third of those are combat arms it shows how weak Britain's forces actually are....
    Which gets us to about 10,000 and being lucky to secure Kabul airport
    I often wonder if those that think you can secure an airport whilst not controlling any of the ground outside the fence also think that planes levitate into the sky vertically and no conventional weapons fired at the fence can get to them. I would not fancy flying on these flights but hey ho.
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 22,024
    The resistance is claiming to have killed 800 Taliban. No doubt exaggerated, and quite possibly not true, but it looks like the fighting continues, and the roles have reversed with the Taliban now out in the open.
  • DeVlaeminck
    DeVlaeminck Posts: 9,108
    Hopefully they can establish some kind of territory which can act as a locus for a resistance movement. I dont know how far different ethnic and tribal loyalties would hinder an opposition coming together but you'd hope allegiances could be made in the face of a common enemy.

    The Taliban have sime backing from foreign states - if a resistance does emerge the dilemma is do the USA et al back the resistance - the risk that a civil war becomes a proxy war. I dont claim to know enough to have an informed view you just feel sympathy for people living in a state where violent religious zealots hold the whip hand.
    [Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]
  • MattFalle
    MattFalle Posts: 11,644
    edited August 2021
    The US assisting a resistance movement against the ruling party in Afghanistan?

    Now what could possibly go wrong there.....
    .
    The camera down the willy isn't anything like as bad as it sounds.
  • Hopefully they can establish some kind of territory which can act as a locus for a resistance movement. I dont know how far different ethnic and tribal loyalties would hinder an opposition coming together but you'd hope allegiances could be made in the face of a common enemy.

    The Taliban have sime backing from foreign states - if a resistance does emerge the dilemma is do the USA et al back the resistance - the risk that a civil war becomes a proxy war. I dont claim to know enough to have an informed view you just feel sympathy for people living in a state where violent religious zealots hold the whip hand.

    That might depend upon the conditions that the US agreed to in their surrender and withdrawal agreement.

    You might want to reconsider your sympathy as the Pew Research Centre reckons
    99% approve of sharia law
    85% approve of stoning for adultery
    79% believe in execution for apostasy (whatever that is)

    All from this fascinating article
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/in-a-land-with-14-tribes-named-in-its-anthem-we-were-played-like-a-violin-z9zqz3n0s
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,226
    The agreement says "The United States will seek economic cooperation for reconstruction with the new post-settlement Afghan Islamic government as determined by the intra-Afghan dialogue and negotiations, and will not intervene in its internal affairs."

    And "The United States and its allies will refrain from the threat or the use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Afghanistan or intervening in its domestic affairs."

    It's only 4 pages, worth a glance to see what Trump agreed to, and why it has been a relatively pain free process for usa forces.
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 22,024

    Hopefully they can establish some kind of territory which can act as a locus for a resistance movement. I dont know how far different ethnic and tribal loyalties would hinder an opposition coming together but you'd hope allegiances could be made in the face of a common enemy.

    The Taliban have sime backing from foreign states - if a resistance does emerge the dilemma is do the USA et al back the resistance - the risk that a civil war becomes a proxy war. I dont claim to know enough to have an informed view you just feel sympathy for people living in a state where violent religious zealots hold the whip hand.

    Their base is the Panjshir Valley. It didn't fall to either the Soviets or the Taliban in previous wars. It is a a natural fortress protected by mountains and only accessible by a couple of narrow roads and a tunnel.

    The strategy is to use that as a base and then target key areas.

    The problem they have is supplies, so ideally they need to secure the route north. Countries like India will supply them. The US may even subsidise India's supplies. The problem is that India doesn't have access which is why Russian/Chinese support would be helpful, but they seem to be backing the Taliban.

  • elbowloh
    elbowloh Posts: 7,078

    Hopefully they can establish some kind of territory which can act as a locus for a resistance movement. I dont know how far different ethnic and tribal loyalties would hinder an opposition coming together but you'd hope allegiances could be made in the face of a common enemy.

    The Taliban have sime backing from foreign states - if a resistance does emerge the dilemma is do the USA et al back the resistance - the risk that a civil war becomes a proxy war. I dont claim to know enough to have an informed view you just feel sympathy for people living in a state where violent religious zealots hold the whip hand.

    That might depend upon the conditions that the US agreed to in their surrender and withdrawal agreement.

    You might want to reconsider your sympathy as the Pew Research Centre reckons
    99% approve of sharia law
    85% approve of stoning for adultery
    79% believe in execution for apostasy (whatever that is)

    All from this fascinating article
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/in-a-land-with-14-tribes-named-in-its-anthem-we-were-played-like-a-violin-z9zqz3n0s
    Apostacy is leaving the religion, in this case Islam obviously.
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  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,587

    The resistance is claiming to have killed 800 Taliban. No doubt exaggerated, and quite possibly not true, but it looks like the fighting continues, and the roles have reversed with the Taliban now out in the open.

    John80 must have rallied them with a rousing speech about how pathetically cowardly they were being and whipped them into shape.
  • elbowloh said:

    Hopefully they can establish some kind of territory which can act as a locus for a resistance movement. I dont know how far different ethnic and tribal loyalties would hinder an opposition coming together but you'd hope allegiances could be made in the face of a common enemy.

    The Taliban have sime backing from foreign states - if a resistance does emerge the dilemma is do the USA et al back the resistance - the risk that a civil war becomes a proxy war. I dont claim to know enough to have an informed view you just feel sympathy for people living in a state where violent religious zealots hold the whip hand.

    That might depend upon the conditions that the US agreed to in their surrender and withdrawal agreement.

    You might want to reconsider your sympathy as the Pew Research Centre reckons
    99% approve of sharia law
    85% approve of stoning for adultery
    79% believe in execution for apostasy (whatever that is)

    All from this fascinating article
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/in-a-land-with-14-tribes-named-in-its-anthem-we-were-played-like-a-violin-z9zqz3n0s
    Apostacy is leaving the religion, in this case Islam obviously.
    Thanks, I was more making the point that I had no idea until I Googled it
  • john80
    john80 Posts: 2,965
    Pross said:

    The resistance is claiming to have killed 800 Taliban. No doubt exaggerated, and quite possibly not true, but it looks like the fighting continues, and the roles have reversed with the Taliban now out in the open.

    John80 must have rallied them with a rousing speech about how pathetically cowardly they were being and whipped them into shape.
    You have a bit of a hard on for me Pross. If was gay maybe we could be together but alas it was not meant to be. A bit like occupying an nation and imposing on them views that a good percentage of the locals don't share.

    Remember the 80s and 90s where we could not control or alter the opinions of a relatively small area of Belfast.
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 22,024
    Two suicide bombings at the airport.
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 22,024
    It seems to be the work of ISIS. A lot dead.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,660

    Two suicide bombings at the airport.

    UK officials were warning this would exactly happen last night and were saying explicitly people should not go to the airport as the expect an imminent attack.
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 22,024

    Two suicide bombings at the airport.

    UK officials were warning this would exactly happen last night and were saying explicitly people should not go to the airport as the expect an imminent attack.
    Did you dismiss it as PR for the Taliban?

    (That was your response when I mentioned that ISIS and the Taliban had been fighting).
  • Dorset_Boy
    Dorset_Boy Posts: 7,609
    Over 70 dead and 140+ injured.
    Threat expected to continue until US & west leave.
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,226

    Over 70 dead and 140+ injured.
    Threat expected to continue until US & west leave.

    And beyond.
  • verylonglegs
    verylonglegs Posts: 4,023

    Over 70 dead and 140+ injured.
    Threat expected to continue until US & west leave.

    It's a grim situation for the boots on the ground, be it ISIS or anyone else with a grudge against western forces they've got a free hit against them for the next few days knowing they'll be on their way for good with no retaliation likely. Must have the biggest balls on the planet to stand on that airport perimeter in uniform right now.
  • MattFalle
    MattFalle Posts: 11,644
    nonsense - of course there will be retaliation. you just won't hear about it.

    its like when people say "ooh, everyone pulled out years ago" - people have been in there always - its just not released/talked about.
    .
    The camera down the willy isn't anything like as bad as it sounds.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,660
    edited August 2021
    MattFalle said:

    nonsense - of course there will be retaliation. you just won't hear about it.

    its like when people say "ooh, everyone pulled out years ago" - people have been in there always - its just not released/talked about.

    Yes a nephew of a colleague is a para and went in last week apparently.

    They’re supposed to be surrounded, right?
  • MattFalle
    MattFalle Posts: 11,644
    edited August 2021
    I believe 2 PARA are in as its their RRF rotation with their support teams.

    You can't surround above you tbh, but its an airport so yeah, surrounded but by civpop and Terry who, at the moment, aren't aggressive to multinational forces as its still within the negotiated deadline as they know that if they try anything they are dealing with, SF aside, the best the US (Marines and their Airborn div) and British military have.

    What happens afterwards though is anyone's guess.

    Methinks Terry may take on the latest bunch of Da'esh lunatics in order to try and calm things down.

    Either way, some mad SEAL teams will be having a polite word or two in due course.
    .
    The camera down the willy isn't anything like as bad as it sounds.
  • MattFalle
    MattFalle Posts: 11,644

    Over 70 dead and 140+ injured.
    Threat expected to continue until US & west leave.

    And beyond.
    even if everyone stayed the threat has always been and always will be there.

    it ain't going away.
    .
    The camera down the willy isn't anything like as bad as it sounds.
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 22,024
    MattFalle said:

    nonsense - of course there will be retaliation. you just won't hear about it.

    its like when people say "ooh, everyone pulled out years ago" - people have been in there always - its just not released/talked about.

    Biden said they would retaliate.