Macroeconomics, the economy, inflation etc. *likely to be very dull*

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  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,660

  • China Evergrande, the troubled property giant, made a debt payment on at least two of its bonds on Wednesday, a company bondholder said, a sign that it may yet again manage to head off default.

    Evergrande owes investors interest payments on three bonds, totaling nearly $150 million, with the grace periods for those payments set to expire on Wednesday. Missing them would trigger a default that could ripple through the Chinese economy: With some $300 billion in debt outstanding, the company’s inability to pay its debt would potentially hurt banks, property developers, and even home buyers in the country.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/10/business/evergrande-bond-deadline.html
  • If Elon Musk was running Evergreen there would be no chance of it going bust because the abodes would be people pleasing spectacular.
  • Is this a good time to top up our crypto hedge?
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,660

    Is this a good time to top up our crypto hedge?

    I am tempted to flag you for trolling.
  • Is this a good time to top up our crypto hedge?

    I am tempted to flag you for trolling.
    Semi serious- I think that if this spooks the markets then crypto and gold will go up
  • Not today, it seems
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 22,029

    Is this a good time to top up our crypto hedge?

    Good reminder. I really need to do something about my bitcoin holdings. I received them for free, but they are becoming increasingly valuable, and I should probably move them somewhere more accessible.
  • Bitcoin is extemely liquid - same day buy/sell and transfer in/out of wallet.

    Doesn't get much more accessible than that - much better than a S&S ISA
  • Conflicting news about whether Chinese property giant Evergrande had defaulted on its overdue loan payments emerged just before Bitcoin’s recent price crash.

    Evergrande Group is China’s second-largest property developer and is in debt for roughly $300 billion. There are fears that its collapse could spark a wider financial crisis.

    Two minutes after Evergrande’s payment was due, the Deutsche Markt Screening Agentur (DMSA) issued an announcement on Nov. 10 at 4 p.m. UTC stating that it was preparing bankruptcy proceedings against Evergrande.

    Two hours later at about 6 .p.m. UTC, Bitcoin began it’s hours-long pullback to $62,800.

    Media outlet Morning Brew reported about 45 minutes later that Evergrande had missed a payment on its outstanding debt which was due on Wednesday at 4 p.m. UTC and defaulted. Another 45 minutes passed before Bloomberg issued a story saying that it hadn’t.

    Prices stabilized around $64,500 several hours after the initial drop. This was around the same time Bloomberg reporter Allison McNeely’s tweeted “contrary to what you may have heard ~on the internet~ Evergrande did not default today.”

    https://cointelegraph.com/news/did-conflicting-reports-about-evergrande-defaulting-cause-bitcoin-to-tank
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 22,029

    Bitcoin is extemely liquid - same day buy/sell and transfer in/out of wallet.

    Doesn't get much more accessible than that - much better than a S&S ISA

    They're not very liquid when they are stored in a brain wallet you need to spend time remembering. Also, security paranoia, doesn't help with the liquidity.
  • Bitcoin is extemely liquid - same day buy/sell and transfer in/out of wallet.

    Doesn't get much more accessible than that - much better than a S&S ISA

    They're not very liquid when they are stored in a brain wallet you need to spend time remembering. Also, security paranoia, doesn't help with the liquidity.
    Coinbase / Binance - dead easy
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 22,029

    Bitcoin is extemely liquid - same day buy/sell and transfer in/out of wallet.

    Doesn't get much more accessible than that - much better than a S&S ISA

    They're not very liquid when they are stored in a brain wallet you need to spend time remembering. Also, security paranoia, doesn't help with the liquidity.
    Coinbase / Binance - dead easy
    For small spending amounts, sure. I wouldn't use something like that for savings though. I think a hardware wallet is the best option.

    In any case, my point was specific to me. Mine is in a brain wallet that I need to remember.


  • Bitcoin is extemely liquid - same day buy/sell and transfer in/out of wallet.

    Doesn't get much more accessible than that - much better than a S&S ISA

    They're not very liquid when they are stored in a brain wallet you need to spend time remembering. Also, security paranoia, doesn't help with the liquidity.
    Coinbase / Binance - dead easy
    Doesn’t Binance have restrictions on it from the banks?
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,660
    edited November 2021

    Bitcoin is extemely liquid - same day buy/sell and transfer in/out of wallet.

    Doesn't get much more accessible than that - much better than a S&S ISA

    They're not very liquid when they are stored in a brain wallet you need to spend time remembering. Also, security paranoia, doesn't help with the liquidity.
    Coinbase / Binance - dead easy
    Doesn’t Binance have restrictions on it from the banks?
    I thought the FCA banned binance?

    All the same, playing with crypto is playing with fire.

    It’s gambling with added assistance to money laundering for criminals and a gigantic carbon footprint.
  • Jezyboy
    Jezyboy Posts: 3,657

    Bitcoin is extemely liquid - same day buy/sell and transfer in/out of wallet.

    Doesn't get much more accessible than that - much better than a S&S ISA

    They're not very liquid when they are stored in a brain wallet you need to spend time remembering. Also, security paranoia, doesn't help with the liquidity.
    Coinbase / Binance - dead easy
    Doesn’t Binance have restrictions on it from the banks?
    I thought the FCA banned binance?

    All the same, playing with crypto is playing with fire.

    It’s gambling with added assistance to money laundering for criminals and a gigantic carbon footprint.
    I'd quite like to see the relative power requirements of HPC for say the biggest bitcoin mining operation and a big engineering OEM, say Rolls Royce plc.

    Mainly because I also think a calculation showing how much Co2 you "spend" running an HPC in order to end up with a design that safely saves x Co2 per mile flown would be interesting.
  • Bitcoin is extemely liquid - same day buy/sell and transfer in/out of wallet.

    Doesn't get much more accessible than that - much better than a S&S ISA

    They're not very liquid when they are stored in a brain wallet you need to spend time remembering. Also, security paranoia, doesn't help with the liquidity.
    Coinbase / Binance - dead easy
    Doesn’t Binance have restrictions on it from the banks?
    I thought the FCA banned binance?

    All the same, playing with crypto is playing with fire.

    It’s gambling with added assistance to money laundering for criminals and a gigantic carbon footprint.
    Binance fell foul of KYC leading to terrorism and money laundering concerns.

    I think all crypto currencies are essentially worthless junk however as part of a wider investment strategy I have invested 1% of my portfolio (😀) in various coins. If all goes well it could be worth 10% of my portfolio, if all goes badly I lose 1%.

    Anyway signed up to Coinbase as they are reckoned to be most reputable and whilst KYC and security is impressive I was shocked that you could pay with Klarna and that the pre-populated buy options were as low as £10.

    There is an argument that it makes more sense than buying lottery tickets but I suspect that if it goes pop there will be people unable to bear the losses
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,660
    Over what time period does transitory inflation become just inflation?
  • Bitcoin is extemely liquid - same day buy/sell and transfer in/out of wallet.

    Doesn't get much more accessible than that - much better than a S&S ISA

    They're not very liquid when they are stored in a brain wallet you need to spend time remembering. Also, security paranoia, doesn't help with the liquidity.
    Coinbase / Binance - dead easy
    Doesn’t Binance have restrictions on it from the banks?
    I thought the FCA banned binance?

    All the same, playing with crypto is playing with fire.

    It’s gambling with added assistance to money laundering for criminals and a gigantic carbon footprint.
    Binance fell foul of KYC leading to terrorism and money laundering concerns.

    I think all crypto currencies are essentially worthless junk however as part of a wider investment strategy I have invested 1% of my portfolio (😀) in various coins. If all goes well it could be worth 10% of my portfolio, if all goes badly I lose 1%.

    Anyway signed up to Coinbase as they are reckoned to be most reputable and whilst KYC and security is impressive I was shocked that you could pay with Klarna and that the pre-populated buy options were as low as £10.

    There is an argument that it makes more sense than buying lottery tickets but I suspect that if it goes pop there will be people unable to bear the losses
    The only problem with buying bitcoin is that it's too liquid (for me).

    The best thing about S&S Isa is you can't just sell when the price dips

    I started buying bitcoin when the price was around £8k to £10k but I didn't have the nerve to ride the troughs, so I kept selling. Ended up turning £1k into £2k when I should have made £5k if I had just held and carried on putting in £100 per month over the past 2 - 3 years - which was my intended strategy.
  • Bitcoin is extemely liquid - same day buy/sell and transfer in/out of wallet.

    Doesn't get much more accessible than that - much better than a S&S ISA

    They're not very liquid when they are stored in a brain wallet you need to spend time remembering. Also, security paranoia, doesn't help with the liquidity.
    Coinbase / Binance - dead easy
    Doesn’t Binance have restrictions on it from the banks?
    I thought the FCA banned binance?

    All the same, playing with crypto is playing with fire.

    It’s gambling with added assistance to money laundering for criminals and a gigantic carbon footprint.
    Binance fell foul of KYC leading to terrorism and money laundering concerns.

    I think all crypto currencies are essentially worthless junk however as part of a wider investment strategy I have invested 1% of my portfolio (😀) in various coins. If all goes well it could be worth 10% of my portfolio, if all goes badly I lose 1%.

    Anyway signed up to Coinbase as they are reckoned to be most reputable and whilst KYC and security is impressive I was shocked that you could pay with Klarna and that the pre-populated buy options were as low as £10.

    There is an argument that it makes more sense than buying lottery tickets but I suspect that if it goes pop there will be people unable to bear the losses
    The only problem with buying bitcoin is that it's too liquid (for me).

    The best thing about S&S Isa is you can't just sell when the price dips

    I started buying bitcoin when the price was around £8k to £10k but I didn't have the nerve to ride the troughs, so I kept selling. Ended up turning £1k into £2k when I should have made £5k if I had just held and carried on putting in £100 per month over the past 2 - 3 years - which was my intended strategy.
    you mentioned S&S ISA being illiquid but surely you can convert to cash and leave in the acct... yes I get your point.

    Listening to Terry Smith convinced me that time in the market is more important than timing the market
  • shirley_basso
    shirley_basso Posts: 6,195
    edited November 2021
    Even if you convert to cash - it still takes 4 days, so it's not instant, so you can't 'cash out' in the strictest sense.

    I totally agree about time in market - which is why the liquidity of the Crypto platforms (And e-Toro) are no good for me. Unfortunately I cannot hold my nerve - and beleive me, I have tried.

    Currently have £15 in LIT coin, currently trading at £8.50. THAT I can just about bear to watch go up and down like a rollercoaster.
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 22,029
    Another problem for me is just how many different cryptos I now have based on all the bitcoin forks.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,660
    So was reading that a lot of the labour restrictions are related to COVID stuff rather than a hot market, so to speak.

    Roughly a million workers have either retired early (lockdown helped them re-evaluate their life?) or are on post-covid long-term sick leave
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 27,499

    So was reading that a lot of the labour restrictions are related to COVID stuff rather than a hot market, so to speak.

    Roughly a million workers have either retired early (lockdown helped them re-evaluate their life?) or are on post-covid long-term sick leave

    Lockdown was certainly an eye opener for how much can be saved by cutting out work expenses, fine dining and foreign holidays. Retirement is very affordable in those circumstances.
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 22,029
    This is something of a rant by Ryan Petersen who is the CEO of Flexport. It is an interesting point.

  • This is something of a rant by Ryan Petersen who is the CEO of Flexport. It is an interesting point.

    would be a brave management team that built resilience around a once in a hundred year event
  • Jezyboy
    Jezyboy Posts: 3,657

    This is something of a rant by Ryan Petersen who is the CEO of Flexport. It is an interesting point.

    would be a brave management team that built resilience around a once in a hundred year event
    Especially as having had one, we must not be due another for 100 years?
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 22,029

    This is something of a rant by Ryan Petersen who is the CEO of Flexport. It is an interesting point.

    would be a brave management team that built resilience around a once in a hundred year event
    People buy insurance despite properties burning down less than once every 100 years. It really depends on what the cost is of building in some resilience.
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 27,499
    edited November 2021

    This is something of a rant by Ryan Petersen who is the CEO of Flexport. It is an interesting point.

    would be a brave management team that built resilience around a once in a hundred year event
    Maybe now but since the previous one was over 100 years ago it would have been prudent 3 years ago. 😉
    Which reminds me, the San Andreas is long overdue. That'll fill the headlines.
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.