Macroeconomics, the economy, inflation etc. *likely to be very dull*

focuszing723

ECB still concerned with inflation (rate .5% rise), but ready to act if needed.

focuszing723

The ECB had signaled for several weeks that it would be raising rates again at its March meeting, as inflation across the 20-member region remains sharply above the targeted level. In February, preliminary data showed headline inflation of 8.5%, well above the central bank’s target of 2%.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/16/ecb-rate-decision-march-meeting-lagarde-announces-new-rate-hike.html

Basically it comes down to a real worry of spiralling inflation, that's the killer.

pblakeney

My investment in gold is sky rocketing. This is more of a concern than a boast.
It tells me that people who know more than I do are concerned.

rick_chasey

pblakeney said:

My investment in gold is sky rocketing. This is more of a concern than a boast.
It tells me that people who know more than I do are concerned.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/goldbug.asp

pblakeney

rick_chasey said:

pblakeney said:

My investment in gold is sky rocketing. This is more of a concern than a boast.
It tells me that people who know more than I do are concerned.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/goldbug.asp

Thanks for wasting my time with that.
Fact is the value has gone up 10% in a week.

rick_chasey

Yeah cos goldbugs.

pblakeney

Whatevs.

rick_chasey

I’ve never understood gold as an investment

pblakeney

rick_chasey said:

I’ve never understood gold as an investment

In simple terms it is a hedge. Hang around long enough and you'll find out that things aren't as stable as you appear to think. It's also an indicator of things going pear shaped.

focuszing723

Swiss bank UBS Group is closing in on a deal to take over its rival Credit Suisse amid a weekend of frenzied negotiations, according to multiple reports.

The Swiss government and other global authorities, including some from the US, are working toward sealing the agreement on Sunday in the hopes of shoring up trust in the banking system before the markets open Monday.

The scramble to get the deal done is playing out after the Swiss National Bank and the country’s top regulator, Finma, told their international counterparts they regard a deal with UBS as the only option to stop Credit Suisse from collapsing, the Financial Times reported.

It will be the first combination of two global systemically important banks since the financial crisis of 2008-2009

https://nypost.com/2023/03/18/ubs-closing-in-on-deal-to-buy-fellow-swiss-bank-credit-suisse/

surrey_commuter

pblakeney said:

rick_chasey said:

I’ve never understood gold as an investment

In simple terms it is a hedge. Hang around long enough and you'll find out that things aren't as stable as you appear to think. It's also an indicator of things going pear shaped.

pblakeney said:

rick_chasey said:

I’ve never understood gold as an investment

In simple terms it is a hedge. Hang around long enough and you'll find out that things aren't as stable as you appear to think. It's also an indicator of things going pear shaped.

I have never really thought about investing in gold so could I ask some questions?

Do you literally buy lumps of the shiny stuff?
I get that is an indicator of uncertainty but is it a leading indicator and how easy is it to time the market?
Or do you put a % your portfolio in as a buy and hold?
What are the dealing costs/spread?

rick_chasey

pblakeney said:

rick_chasey said:

I’ve never understood gold as an investment

In simple terms it is a hedge. Hang around long enough and you'll find out that things aren't as stable as you appear to think. It's also an indicator of things going pear shaped.

It’s a hedge cos goldbugs but it’s got no more intrinsic value as an investment than just trading FX.

You could have just stuck that amount into USD as the global reserve.

But yeah, graduating into the GFC and the Great Recession and then living through Covid, I’m clearly still clueless about how pear-shaped it all goes.

TheBigBean

Gold has been valued a lot longer than greenbacks.

rick_chasey

TheBigBean said:

Gold has been valued a lot longer than greenbacks.

Sure. It has function in jewellery and wires etc, but in this context it’s just another currency.

When the poo hits the fan everyone runs to safe haven currencies. So whatever is the global reserve. Same idea.

That’s partly why the dollar got mega strong at the back end of last year.

TheBigBean

surrey_commuter said:

pblakeney said:

rick_chasey said:

I’ve never understood gold as an investment

In simple terms it is a hedge. Hang around long enough and you'll find out that things aren't as stable as you appear to think. It's also an indicator of things going pear shaped.

pblakeney said:

rick_chasey said:

I’ve never understood gold as an investment

In simple terms it is a hedge. Hang around long enough and you'll find out that things aren't as stable as you appear to think. It's also an indicator of things going pear shaped.

I have never really thought about investing in gold so could I ask some questions?

Do you literally buy lumps of the shiny stuff?
I get that is an indicator of uncertainty but is it a leading indicator and how easy is it to time the market?
Or do you put a % your portfolio in as a buy and hold?
What are the dealing costs/spread?

You either hold physical gold, something affected by gold (eg gold mining company) or some futures. On the assumption that you like an easy life a gold ETF will do one of the above for you.

pblakeney

surrey_commuter said:

pblakeney said:

rick_chasey said:

I’ve never understood gold as an investment

In simple terms it is a hedge. Hang around long enough and you'll find out that things aren't as stable as you appear to think. It's also an indicator of things going pear shaped.

pblakeney said:

rick_chasey said:

I’ve never understood gold as an investment

In simple terms it is a hedge. Hang around long enough and you'll find out that things aren't as stable as you appear to think. It's also an indicator of things going pear shaped.

I have never really thought about investing in gold so could I ask some questions?

Do you literally buy lumps of the shiny stuff? - You can but there are alternatives.
I get that is an indicator of uncertainty but is it a leading indicator and how easy is it to time the market? It's a gamble like any investment. See Gordon Brown.
Or do you put a % your portfolio in as a buy and hold? That's what I did. Rainy day money if rain turns to tropical thunderstorm.
What are the dealing costs/spread? Depends where you buy from. VAT & CGT free.

See the italics above. Disclaimer, I am no financial advisor, I just hedged a percentage.

focuszing723

The thing is right, always believe in your soul, you've got the power to know, you're indestructible, always believe in...

Cause you are gold!

Not literal Gold, you know what I mean.

surrey_commuter

pblakeney said:

surrey_commuter said:

pblakeney said:

rick_chasey said:

I’ve never understood gold as an investment

In simple terms it is a hedge. Hang around long enough and you'll find out that things aren't as stable as you appear to think. It's also an indicator of things going pear shaped.

pblakeney said:

rick_chasey said:

I’ve never understood gold as an investment

In simple terms it is a hedge. Hang around long enough and you'll find out that things aren't as stable as you appear to think. It's also an indicator of things going pear shaped.

I have never really thought about investing in gold so could I ask some questions?

Do you literally buy lumps of the shiny stuff? - You can but there are alternatives.
I get that is an indicator of uncertainty but is it a leading indicator and how easy is it to time the market? It's a gamble like any investment. See Gordon Brown.
Or do you put a % your portfolio in as a buy and hold? That's what I did. Rainy day money if rain turns to tropical thunderstorm.
What are the dealing costs/spread? Depends where you buy from. VAT & CGT free.

See the italics above. Disclaimer, I am no financial advisor, I just hedged a percentage.

My concern is, that like most people, I would not recognise the rainy day

pblakeney

surrey_commuter said:

pblakeney said:

surrey_commuter said:

pblakeney said:

rick_chasey said:

I’ve never understood gold as an investment

In simple terms it is a hedge. Hang around long enough and you'll find out that things aren't as stable as you appear to think. It's also an indicator of things going pear shaped.

pblakeney said:

rick_chasey said:

I’ve never understood gold as an investment

In simple terms it is a hedge. Hang around long enough and you'll find out that things aren't as stable as you appear to think. It's also an indicator of things going pear shaped.

I have never really thought about investing in gold so could I ask some questions?

Do you literally buy lumps of the shiny stuff? - You can but there are alternatives.
I get that is an indicator of uncertainty but is it a leading indicator and how easy is it to time the market? It's a gamble like any investment. See Gordon Brown.
Or do you put a % your portfolio in as a buy and hold? That's what I did. Rainy day money if rain turns to tropical thunderstorm.
What are the dealing costs/spread? Depends where you buy from. VAT & CGT free.

See the italics above. Disclaimer, I am no financial advisor, I just hedged a percentage.

My concern is, that like most people, I would not recognise the rainy day

By rainy day I mean worse than 2008. Something that will be very noticeable.
Of course picking the time at the top of the curve would simply be luck.

rick_chasey

Poor Debit Suisse. Rescued by UBS, and the market reaction is to sell off UBS haha.

Wah wah waaaah.

pblakeney

The difference that 14 minutes can make.

rick_chasey

I am pretty confident the UK banking sector is in good order tbh.

(Despite, I should add, all the Brexiter moves to deregulate UK banking).

Worth remembering that it was SVB, amongst others, who lobbied the Trump administration to loosen the regulations for smaller, non-Too-Big-To-Fail banks so they could do the kind of things that ended up being their undoing.

The fact the Fed still insured most of the deposits I, personally, think is really bad. Moral hazard is still an issue, clearly.

Pross

rick_chasey said:

Poor Debit Suisse. Rescued by UBS, and the market reaction is to sell off UBS haha.

Wah wah waaaah.

Not a client then I take it?

rick_chasey

Pross said:

rick_chasey said:

Poor Debit Suisse. Rescued by UBS, and the market reaction is to sell off UBS haha.

Wah wah waaaah.

Not a client then I take it?

Mmm should probably not say too much, but no not me personally.

I have had clients who have since gone bust because they were found to have been engaged in full on fraud so I am not above all of this.

surrey_commuter

pblakeney said:

surrey_commuter said:

pblakeney said:

surrey_commuter said:

pblakeney said:

rick_chasey said:

I’ve never understood gold as an investment

In simple terms it is a hedge. Hang around long enough and you'll find out that things aren't as stable as you appear to think. It's also an indicator of things going pear shaped.

pblakeney said:

rick_chasey said:

I’ve never understood gold as an investment

In simple terms it is a hedge. Hang around long enough and you'll find out that things aren't as stable as you appear to think. It's also an indicator of things going pear shaped.

I have never really thought about investing in gold so could I ask some questions?

Do you literally buy lumps of the shiny stuff? - You can but there are alternatives.
I get that is an indicator of uncertainty but is it a leading indicator and how easy is it to time the market? It's a gamble like any investment. See Gordon Brown.
Or do you put a % your portfolio in as a buy and hold? That's what I did. Rainy day money if rain turns to tropical thunderstorm.
What are the dealing costs/spread? Depends where you buy from. VAT & CGT free.

See the italics above. Disclaimer, I am no financial advisor, I just hedged a percentage.

My concern is, that like most people, I would not recognise the rainy day

By rainy day I mean worse than 2008. Something that will be very noticeable.
Of course picking the time at the top of the curve would simply be luck.

I was assuming we were talking about a drawdown phase of life and were holding it as a hedge for when other assets dropped. In this scenario when you need cash you should of course sell gold but most people won't sell their best performing asset.

pblakeney

surrey_commuter said:

pblakeney said:

surrey_commuter said:

pblakeney said:

surrey_commuter said:

pblakeney said:

rick_chasey said:

I’ve never understood gold as an investment

In simple terms it is a hedge. Hang around long enough and you'll find out that things aren't as stable as you appear to think. It's also an indicator of things going pear shaped.

pblakeney said:

rick_chasey said:

I’ve never understood gold as an investment

In simple terms it is a hedge. Hang around long enough and you'll find out that things aren't as stable as you appear to think. It's also an indicator of things going pear shaped.

I have never really thought about investing in gold so could I ask some questions?

Do you literally buy lumps of the shiny stuff? - You can but there are alternatives.
I get that is an indicator of uncertainty but is it a leading indicator and how easy is it to time the market? It's a gamble like any investment. See Gordon Brown.
Or do you put a % your portfolio in as a buy and hold? That's what I did. Rainy day money if rain turns to tropical thunderstorm.
What are the dealing costs/spread? Depends where you buy from. VAT & CGT free.

See the italics above. Disclaimer, I am no financial advisor, I just hedged a percentage.

My concern is, that like most people, I would not recognise the rainy day

By rainy day I mean worse than 2008. Something that will be very noticeable.
Of course picking the time at the top of the curve would simply be luck.

I was assuming we were talking about a drawdown phase of life and were holding it as a hedge for when other assets dropped. In this scenario when you need cash you should of course sell gold but most people won't sell their best performing asset.

If I've still got a holding at 75years old then I think it will be time for a pamper of some kind. 😉

surrey_commuter

pblakeney said:

surrey_commuter said:

pblakeney said:

surrey_commuter said:

pblakeney said:

surrey_commuter said:

pblakeney said:

rick_chasey said:

I’ve never understood gold as an investment

In simple terms it is a hedge. Hang around long enough and you'll find out that things aren't as stable as you appear to think. It's also an indicator of things going pear shaped.

pblakeney said:

rick_chasey said:

I’ve never understood gold as an investment

In simple terms it is a hedge. Hang around long enough and you'll find out that things aren't as stable as you appear to think. It's also an indicator of things going pear shaped.

I have never really thought about investing in gold so could I ask some questions?

Do you literally buy lumps of the shiny stuff? - You can but there are alternatives.
I get that is an indicator of uncertainty but is it a leading indicator and how easy is it to time the market? It's a gamble like any investment. See Gordon Brown.
Or do you put a % your portfolio in as a buy and hold? That's what I did. Rainy day money if rain turns to tropical thunderstorm.
What are the dealing costs/spread? Depends where you buy from. VAT & CGT free.

See the italics above. Disclaimer, I am no financial advisor, I just hedged a percentage.

My concern is, that like most people, I would not recognise the rainy day

By rainy day I mean worse than 2008. Something that will be very noticeable.
Of course picking the time at the top of the curve would simply be luck.

I was assuming we were talking about a drawdown phase of life and were holding it as a hedge for when other assets dropped. In this scenario when you need cash you should of course sell gold but most people won't sell their best performing asset.

If I've still got a holding at 75years old then I think it will be time for a pamper of some kind. 😉

I assume gold soared like an eagle when Covid hit - did you sell?

A mate who is a professional investor says the amateurs biggest mistake is not knowng when to sell as they don't want to crystalize (ie admit) losses or sell their best performers.

Strangely I got better at this when I read a throwaway comment on here or another forum which was if you don't know what to do then do half.

rick_chasey

surrey_commuter said:

pblakeney said:

surrey_commuter said:

pblakeney said:

surrey_commuter said:

pblakeney said:

surrey_commuter said:

pblakeney said:

rick_chasey said:

I’ve never understood gold as an investment

In simple terms it is a hedge. Hang around long enough and you'll find out that things aren't as stable as you appear to think. It's also an indicator of things going pear shaped.

pblakeney said:

rick_chasey said:

I’ve never understood gold as an investment

In simple terms it is a hedge. Hang around long enough and you'll find out that things aren't as stable as you appear to think. It's also an indicator of things going pear shaped.

I have never really thought about investing in gold so could I ask some questions?

Do you literally buy lumps of the shiny stuff? - You can but there are alternatives.
I get that is an indicator of uncertainty but is it a leading indicator and how easy is it to time the market? It's a gamble like any investment. See Gordon Brown.
Or do you put a % your portfolio in as a buy and hold? That's what I did. Rainy day money if rain turns to tropical thunderstorm.
What are the dealing costs/spread? Depends where you buy from. VAT & CGT free.

See the italics above. Disclaimer, I am no financial advisor, I just hedged a percentage.

My concern is, that like most people, I would not recognise the rainy day

By rainy day I mean worse than 2008. Something that will be very noticeable.
Of course picking the time at the top of the curve would simply be luck.

I was assuming we were talking about a drawdown phase of life and were holding it as a hedge for when other assets dropped. In this scenario when you need cash you should of course sell gold but most people won't sell their best performing asset.

If I've still got a holding at 75years old then I think it will be time for a pamper of some kind. 😉

I assume gold soared like an eagle when Covid hit - did you sell?

A mate who is a professional investor says the amateurs biggest mistake is not knowng when to sell as they don't want to crystalize (ie admit) losses or sell their best performers.

Strangely I got better at this when I read a throwaway comment on here or another forum which was if you don't know what to do then do half.

Did you see the story that came out of Fidelity in the US?

They were looking at their highest performing customers, and almost all of them were people who had forgotten they had an account with them.

surrey_commuter

rick_chasey said:

surrey_commuter said:

pblakeney said:

surrey_commuter said:

pblakeney said:

surrey_commuter said:

pblakeney said:

surrey_commuter said:

pblakeney said:

rick_chasey said:

I’ve never understood gold as an investment

In simple terms it is a hedge. Hang around long enough and you'll find out that things aren't as stable as you appear to think. It's also an indicator of things going pear shaped.

pblakeney said:

rick_chasey said:

I’ve never understood gold as an investment

In simple terms it is a hedge. Hang around long enough and you'll find out that things aren't as stable as you appear to think. It's also an indicator of things going pear shaped.

I have never really thought about investing in gold so could I ask some questions?

Do you literally buy lumps of the shiny stuff? - You can but there are alternatives.
I get that is an indicator of uncertainty but is it a leading indicator and how easy is it to time the market? It's a gamble like any investment. See Gordon Brown.
Or do you put a % your portfolio in as a buy and hold? That's what I did. Rainy day money if rain turns to tropical thunderstorm.
What are the dealing costs/spread? Depends where you buy from. VAT & CGT free.

See the italics above. Disclaimer, I am no financial advisor, I just hedged a percentage.

My concern is, that like most people, I would not recognise the rainy day

By rainy day I mean worse than 2008. Something that will be very noticeable.
Of course picking the time at the top of the curve would simply be luck.

I was assuming we were talking about a drawdown phase of life and were holding it as a hedge for when other assets dropped. In this scenario when you need cash you should of course sell gold but most people won't sell their best performing asset.

If I've still got a holding at 75years old then I think it will be time for a pamper of some kind. 😉

I assume gold soared like an eagle when Covid hit - did you sell?

A mate who is a professional investor says the amateurs biggest mistake is not knowng when to sell as they don't want to crystalize (ie admit) losses or sell their best performers.

Strangely I got better at this when I read a throwaway comment on here or another forum which was if you don't know what to do then do half.

Did you see the story that came out of Fidelity in the US?

They were looking at their highest performing customers, and almost all of them were people who had forgotten they had an account with them.

I have heard similar with "their most successful customers are dead"

that is more of an argument for "time in the market not timing the market"

pblakeney

surrey_commuter said:

pblakeney said:

surrey_commuter said:

pblakeney said:

surrey_commuter said:

pblakeney said:

surrey_commuter said:

pblakeney said:

rick_chasey said:

I’ve never understood gold as an investment

In simple terms it is a hedge. Hang around long enough and you'll find out that things aren't as stable as you appear to think. It's also an indicator of things going pear shaped.

pblakeney said:

rick_chasey said:

I’ve never understood gold as an investment

In simple terms it is a hedge. Hang around long enough and you'll find out that things aren't as stable as you appear to think. It's also an indicator of things going pear shaped.

I have never really thought about investing in gold so could I ask some questions?

Do you literally buy lumps of the shiny stuff? - You can but there are alternatives.
I get that is an indicator of uncertainty but is it a leading indicator and how easy is it to time the market? It's a gamble like any investment. See Gordon Brown.
Or do you put a % your portfolio in as a buy and hold? That's what I did. Rainy day money if rain turns to tropical thunderstorm.
What are the dealing costs/spread? Depends where you buy from. VAT & CGT free.

See the italics above. Disclaimer, I am no financial advisor, I just hedged a percentage.

My concern is, that like most people, I would not recognise the rainy day

By rainy day I mean worse than 2008. Something that will be very noticeable.
Of course picking the time at the top of the curve would simply be luck.

I was assuming we were talking about a drawdown phase of life and were holding it as a hedge for when other assets dropped. In this scenario when you need cash you should of course sell gold but most people won't sell their best performing asset.

If I've still got a holding at 75years old then I think it will be time for a pamper of some kind. 😉

I assume gold soared like an eagle when Covid hit - did you sell?

A mate who is a professional investor says the amateurs biggest mistake is not knowng when to sell as they don't want to crystalize (ie admit) losses or sell their best performers.

Strangely I got better at this when I read a throwaway comment on here or another forum which was if you don't know what to do then do half.

It did, and no. Just as well as it's worth more today. Personally Covid was a wonderful financial time for me (full income, minimal spending) so no need to sell.