The Pre-Tour de France thread v2.0

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  • blazing_saddles
    blazing_saddles Posts: 22,725
    edited June 2021
    kingstongraham said:



    You can be among the top 10 and still lose a lot of time. I don't think him losing 2 minutes over 58km of TT is controversial.

    Considering both TTs are effectively pan flat, I'd say you were being a tad conservative.
    Given how the mountain stages are stacked up, Carapaz would need to gain in excess of two minutes on the two Pyrenean stages.

    "Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,253
    pblakeney said:

    Wasn't Carapaz brought into the debate as it was stated to be a 3 horse race, which didn't include him? I'm thinking it is a 4 horse race until Ineos decide who is #1.
    I think has has to beat Thomas, then Roglic, then Pogacar.


    It's a three horse race, but one of the horses is actually two horses.
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,463
    pblakeney said:

    Wasn't Carapaz brought into the debate as it was stated to be a 3 horse race, which didn't include him? I'm thinking it is a 4 horse race until Ineos decide who is #1.
    I think has has to beat Thomas, then Roglic, then Pogacar.

    I think it's a 4 horse race until the end unless one of them loses substantial time. Ineos's best strategy to beat Pogacar is probably to keep two options for as long as possible. They have gone to the end of a Tour with two options on a few occasions and if the squad is firing fully (and doesn't pick up injuries) it looks strong enough that neither Thomas or Carapaz should need to perform domestique duties.
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 27,320
    FWIW I think Thomas could lose 2 minutes in the mountains and/or crashing, and Carapaz could lose 2 minutes in the TT. I see Roglic being his boring self so it comes to Pogacar to either blow everyone away in the mountains, or fade away.
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    OK so how do you beat Pog?

    His weakness is his team, right?
    _
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,253
    rick_chasey said:

    OK so how do you beat Pog?

    His weakness is his team, right?


    I think there's also a slight weakness on the steeper climbs. I'm not sure there's many in this Tour though.
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • neonriver
    neonriver Posts: 228
    rick_chasey said:

    OK so how do you beat Pog?

    His weakness is his team, right?

    Interesting that no first time winner has repeated since 2000 (or 92 according to record books)
  • ddraver
    ddraver Posts: 26,697
    This might be wishful thinking for a good race, but I don't think he's going to have it as 'easy' as last year. All the focus was on Rog & Jumbo - even more so given how dominant they were for 19 stages - but no one is going to let Pog out of their sights this time
    We're in danger of confusing passion with incompetence
    - @ddraver
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,145
    Hirschi, Formolo, Majka, de la Cruz, Polanc and McNulty isn't a disastrous set, especially as Jumbo Visma's domestiques haven't shown any recent form. It's going to be up to Ineos to burn them off, but I don't know if the stages are there to beat Pogacar that way.
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 19,436
    Can the best team beat the best rider?

    It's an interesting proposition

    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 21,910
    tailwindhome said:

    Can the best team beat the best rider?

    It's an interesting proposition

    No. Good teams are overrated.
  • mrb123
    mrb123 Posts: 4,815
    tailwindhome said:

    Can the best team beat the best rider?

    It's an interesting proposition

    One that was addressed quite well last year!
  • shirley_basso
    shirley_basso Posts: 6,195
    How has pogacar fared this season? I've not really followed his form
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    shirley_basso said:

    How has pogacar fared this season? I've not really followed his form

    Won Tireno, won LBL, 3rd overall basque.

    Not bad...
    _
  • mididoctors
    mididoctors Posts: 18,908
    yorkshireraw said:

    rick_chasey said:

    blazing_saddles said:

    Pross said:

    blazing_saddles said:

    Sounds about right to me:

    CARAPAZ Richard
    CASTROVIEJO NICOLAS Jonathan
    DENNIS Rohan
    GEOGHEGAN HART Tao
    KWIATKOWSKI Michal
    PORTE Richie
    ROWE Luke
    THOMAS Geraint
    Reserve.
    DE PLUS Laurens

    Thought Van Baarle would be in there. He's did a good job in 2019 and looked OK last year but lost his leader and role early.
    OK, so here's the obvious hypothetical: who would you leave out to put Van Baarle in?
    Dennis? Though I'll freely admit I've not watched the races he's supposed to have been good in.
    De Plus has announced he's taking a break after overtraining hasn't he?

    I'd have thought it would be 2 out of Dennis, Rowe & Van Baarle for the 'ride on the front' slots.

    Would have thought they wouldn't need Castroviejo to ride the Tour off the back of the Giro, given their resources.
    Swap out castroviejo with dunbar ?

    "If I was a 38 year old man, I definitely wouldn't be riding a bright yellow bike with Hello Kitty disc wheels, put it that way. What we're witnessing here is the world's most high profile mid-life crisis" Afx237vi Mon Jul 20, 2009 2:43 pm
  • mididoctors
    mididoctors Posts: 18,908
    RichN95. said:

    rick_chasey said:

    OK so how do you beat Pog?

    His weakness is his team, right?


    I think there's also a slight weakness on the steeper climbs. I'm not sure there's many in this Tour though.
    High altitude climbs too
    "If I was a 38 year old man, I definitely wouldn't be riding a bright yellow bike with Hello Kitty disc wheels, put it that way. What we're witnessing here is the world's most high profile mid-life crisis" Afx237vi Mon Jul 20, 2009 2:43 pm
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,253
    mididoctors said:

    RichN95. said:

    rick_chasey said:

    OK so how do you beat Pog?

    His weakness is his team, right?


    I think there's also a slight weakness on the steeper climbs. I'm not sure there's many in this Tour though.
    High altitude climbs too
    I may be getting the two confused to be fair
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • No_Ta_Doctor
    No_Ta_Doctor Posts: 14,652
    mrb123 said:

    tailwindhome said:

    Can the best team beat the best rider?

    It's an interesting proposition

    One that was addressed quite well last year!
    Not really, Jumbo had a big yellow train but no counter threat. Pogacar only needed to deal with Roglic, not chase other riders. Roglic's main use of the train was to keep the race together to try and nick some bonus seconds, not to deal with multiple attacks.

    Ineos start the race with 4 genuine threats. They'll let Roglic and Pogacar chase Tao, Porte and Carapaz while Thomas sits in the wheels. Ineos don't need a train to do that. Eventually two of the four will drop time and end up as domestiques, and turned into a train if needed. They've got the flatland firepower to deal with the rest of the race. They've also become far more astute at letting the breaks go recently, forcing others to work (for a stage win, top 10gc position etc).

    I reckon this could be a really fun tour.

    Warning No formatter is installed for the format
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,463
    rick_chasey said:

    shirley_basso said:

    How has pogacar fared this season? I've not really followed his form

    Won Tireno, won LBL, 3rd overall basque.

    Not bad...
    Tour of Slovenia last week too (opposition slightly limited but not rubbish). Currently ranked number 1 as well.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    He seems to be one of those riders who is always in the hunt for overall regardless of time of year or the race.
    _
  • phreak
    phreak Posts: 2,953
    No_Ta_Doctor said:

    mrb123 said:

    tailwindhome said:

    Can the best team beat the best rider?

    It's an interesting proposition

    One that was addressed quite well last year!
    Not really, Jumbo had a big yellow train but no counter threat. Pogacar only needed to deal with Roglic, not chase other riders. Roglic's main use of the train was to keep the race together to try and nick some bonus seconds, not to deal with multiple attacks.

    Ineos start the race with 4 genuine threats. They'll let Roglic and Pogacar chase Tao, Porte and Carapaz while Thomas sits in the wheels. Ineos don't need a train to do that. Eventually two of the four will drop time and end up as domestiques, and turned into a train if needed. They've got the flatland firepower to deal with the rest of the race. They've also become far more astute at letting the breaks go recently, forcing others to work (for a stage win, top 10gc position etc).

    I reckon this could be a really fun tour.

    I guess the train is there to burn off the domestiques of Jumbo and UAE so that you have just Pogacar and Roglic up against potentially TGH, Porte, Carapaz and Thomas. Whether that's likely, however.
  • phreak
    phreak Posts: 2,953
    edited June 2021
    rick_chasey said:

    shirley_basso said:

    How has pogacar fared this season? I've not really followed his form

    Won Tireno, won LBL, 3rd overall basque.

    Not bad...
    His Tirreno win was probably overshadowed a little bit by MvdP's stage-winning move from way out, but he put the best part of 2 minutes into Bernal that day. That was the day after winning the stage and putting a minute into Bernal, Thomas et al. On GC he was over 4 minutes ahead of any his likely rivals in the Tour. Hugely impressive, especially given that Bernal, Landa, Yates et al were all preparing for the Giro so would have been in decent form.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    edited June 2021
    He's an absolute machine.

    You can tell with the top top guys because they do really well in disciplines their body is ill suited to.

    In this instance, Pog can murder most people in a TT and he's built like a goat.
    _
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 19,436
    It's my belief that Pog is the generational talent, the 5 Tour winner.



    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    tailwindhome said:

    It's my belief that Pog is the generational talent, the 5 Tour winner.



    Yeah though I thought that about Bernal.

    Pog feels a bit different.
    _
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    He could be the first rider since Andy Schleck to win LBL and the Tour in the same year
    _
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,253
    edited June 2021
    Delete
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • mididoctors
    mididoctors Posts: 18,908
    phreak said:

    rick_chasey said:

    shirley_basso said:

    How has pogacar fared this season? I've not really followed his form

    Won Tireno, won LBL, 3rd overall basque.

    Not bad...
    His Tirreno win was probably overshadowed a little bit by MvdP's stage-winning move from way out, but he put the best part of 2 minutes into Bernal that day. That was the day after winning the stage and putting a minute into Bernal, Thomas et al. On GC he was over 4 minutes ahead of any his likely rivals in the Tour. Hugely impressive, especially given that Bernal, Landa, Yates et al were all preparing for the Giro so would have been in decent form.
    Podagar rode a hell of a race that day ... MvdP only just held him off
    "If I was a 38 year old man, I definitely wouldn't be riding a bright yellow bike with Hello Kitty disc wheels, put it that way. What we're witnessing here is the world's most high profile mid-life crisis" Afx237vi Mon Jul 20, 2009 2:43 pm
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 19,436
    edited June 2021
    @RichN95.
    You're normally all over the betting

    Odds on Cav winning a stage?
    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • blazing_saddles
    blazing_saddles Posts: 22,725
    Apparently UAE now have two Tadej Pogacars on their books.
    Version 2.0 is Spanish:

    https://www.cyclingweekly.com/news/theres-a-new-wonderkid-on-the-scene-joining-uae-team-emirates-and-the-spanish-are-going-mad-over-him
    "Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.

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