The Pre-Tour de France thread v2.0

RichN95.
RichN95. Posts: 27,262
edited June 2021 in Pro race
For team news, speculation, discussion as to what might happen and anything else (apart from Cavendish, there's a thread for that)

The Bookies odds (PaddyPower)

5/4 Pogacar
7/4 Roglic
5/1 Thomas
8/1 Carapaz
16/1 Porte
22/1 Alaphillippe (are you OK Paddy?)
25/1 Padun (seriously Paddy, do you need to talk to someone?)
33/1 Uran
40/1 G-Hart, Ant-Man Lopez
50/1 Mas, Kelderman, Landa, Dumoulin (Paddy, I'm staging an intervention)
Twitter: @RichN95
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Comments

  • mididoctors
    mididoctors Posts: 18,912
    uran 3rd step isn't impossible
    "If I was a 38 year old man, I definitely wouldn't be riding a bright yellow bike with Hello Kitty disc wheels, put it that way. What we're witnessing here is the world's most high profile mid-life crisis" Afx237vi Mon Jul 20, 2009 2:43 pm
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,660
    No odds for Dumoulin?
    _
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 27,486
    50/1.
    Maybe a Rick intervention is required. 😉
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,660
    Thanks. Makes sense.
    _
  • blazing_saddles
    blazing_saddles Posts: 22,730
    rick_chasey said:

    Thanks. Makes sense.

    Well, about as much sense as Padun being 25/1.
    "Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.
  • blazing_saddles
    blazing_saddles Posts: 22,730
    edited June 2021
    Sounds about right to me:

    CARAPAZ Richard
    CASTROVIEJO NICOLAS Jonathan
    DENNIS Rohan
    GEOGHEGAN HART Tao
    KWIATKOWSKI Michal
    PORTE Richie
    ROWE Luke
    THOMAS Geraint
    Reserve.
    DE PLUS Laurens
    "Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,593
    blazing_saddles said:

    Sounds about right to me:

    CARAPAZ Richard
    CASTROVIEJO NICOLAS Jonathan
    DENNIS Rohan
    GEOGHEGAN HART Tao
    KWIATKOWSKI Michal
    PORTE Richie
    ROWE Luke
    THOMAS Geraint
    Reserve.
    DE PLUS Laurens

    Thought Van Baarle would be in there. He's did a good job in 2019 and looked OK last year but lost his leader and role early.
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,227
    blazing_saddles said:

    Sounds about right to me:

    CARAPAZ Richard
    CASTROVIEJO NICOLAS Jonathan
    DENNIS Rohan
    GEOGHEGAN HART Tao
    KWIATKOWSKI Michal
    PORTE Richie
    ROWE Luke
    THOMAS Geraint
    Reserve.
    DE PLUS Laurens

    So just 3 GT winners, last year's TDF third place, a road world champ and a two time TT world champ then....

    It's slightly crazy that they managed a half decent Giro on top of that lot.
  • No_Ta_Doctor
    No_Ta_Doctor Posts: 14,692
    It's an insane team, but can they keep everyone happy if they all get through the first week or so without losing major time?

    I'm assuming they're going for a multiple attack approach, using Geraint's TT ability to balance attacks in the mountains from Carapaz, with Tao able to do a bit of both as well, but if they need riders to sacrifice in a mountain train it could get interesting. Porte probably happiest to sacrifice his own chances (has retired from gt gc and got his Dauphiné at long last), followed by Tao (always a team player, knows he's still down the pecking order for now)

    Roglic and Pogacar could have a lot to cover here, but it could also go horribly Movistar trident...
    Warning No formatter is installed for the format
  • DeVlaeminck
    DeVlaeminck Posts: 9,108
    Apart from Sagan anyone know who the green jersey contenders are likely to be.
    [Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 22,025
    DeVlaeminck said:

    Apart from Sagan anyone know who the green jersey contenders are likely to be.

    He who should not be named on this thread?
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,227
    DeVlaeminck said:

    Apart from Sagan anyone know who the green jersey contenders are likely to be.

    Usual suspects I'd assume. If Bennett doesn't make it, then Ewan, Demare, Van Aert, Nizzolo, Merlier etc.

    Does the points system make it possible that someone like Alaphillippe or Van der Poel gets a shot at it with this parcours? Or is it firmly geared towards the sprinters?
  • mididoctors
    mididoctors Posts: 18,912
    edited June 2021
    blazing_saddles said:

    Sounds about right to me:

    CARAPAZ Richard
    CASTROVIEJO NICOLAS Jonathan
    DENNIS Rohan
    GEOGHEGAN HART Tao
    KWIATKOWSKI Michal
    PORTE Richie
    ROWE Luke
    THOMAS Geraint
    Reserve.
    DE PLUS Laurens

    Jesus what a line up
    "If I was a 38 year old man, I definitely wouldn't be riding a bright yellow bike with Hello Kitty disc wheels, put it that way. What we're witnessing here is the world's most high profile mid-life crisis" Afx237vi Mon Jul 20, 2009 2:43 pm
  • mididoctors
    mididoctors Posts: 18,912
    DeVlaeminck said:

    Apart from Sagan anyone know who the green jersey contenders are likely to be.

    Ewan has to be thinking it but he is going for a win in all three GTS ..so they say
    "If I was a 38 year old man, I definitely wouldn't be riding a bright yellow bike with Hello Kitty disc wheels, put it that way. What we're witnessing here is the world's most high profile mid-life crisis" Afx237vi Mon Jul 20, 2009 2:43 pm
  • mididoctors
    mididoctors Posts: 18,912
    What are we thinking about jumbo and it's odd prep stratergy . Kuss has looked a bit under
    "If I was a 38 year old man, I definitely wouldn't be riding a bright yellow bike with Hello Kitty disc wheels, put it that way. What we're witnessing here is the world's most high profile mid-life crisis" Afx237vi Mon Jul 20, 2009 2:43 pm
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,262
    mididoctors said:

    What are we thinking about jumbo and it's odd prep stratergy . Kuss has looked a bit under


    They're certainly not the team of last year. WVA's been ill, Dumoulin absent, Bennett average at the Giro. Only Kruijswijk seems to be OK (Roglic aside)
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • No_Ta_Doctor
    No_Ta_Doctor Posts: 14,692
    RichN95. said:

    mididoctors said:

    What are we thinking about jumbo and it's odd prep stratergy . Kuss has looked a bit under


    They're certainly not the team of last year. WVA's been ill, Dumoulin absent, Bennett average at the Giro. Only Kruijswijk seems to be OK (Roglic aside)
    Dumoulin is back and looking decent, though no idea if he'll be riding the Tour, he's focused on Olympics I think. Vingegaard will be a new addition to the Tour team, he's had some injury recently, but he was superb at the Vuelta and brilliant early season. I think they'll be strong, but they may not have a real plan B or the ability to pose multiple threats
    Warning No formatter is installed for the format
  • blazing_saddles
    blazing_saddles Posts: 22,730
    Pross said:

    blazing_saddles said:

    Sounds about right to me:

    CARAPAZ Richard
    CASTROVIEJO NICOLAS Jonathan
    DENNIS Rohan
    GEOGHEGAN HART Tao
    KWIATKOWSKI Michal
    PORTE Richie
    ROWE Luke
    THOMAS Geraint
    Reserve.
    DE PLUS Laurens

    Thought Van Baarle would be in there. He's did a good job in 2019 and looked OK last year but lost his leader and role early.
    OK, so here's the obvious hypothetical: who would you leave out to put Van Baarle in?
    "Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,660
    blazing_saddles said:

    Pross said:

    blazing_saddles said:

    Sounds about right to me:

    CARAPAZ Richard
    CASTROVIEJO NICOLAS Jonathan
    DENNIS Rohan
    GEOGHEGAN HART Tao
    KWIATKOWSKI Michal
    PORTE Richie
    ROWE Luke
    THOMAS Geraint
    Reserve.
    DE PLUS Laurens

    Thought Van Baarle would be in there. He's did a good job in 2019 and looked OK last year but lost his leader and role early.
    OK, so here's the obvious hypothetical: who would you leave out to put Van Baarle in?
    Dennis? Though I'll freely admit I've not watched the races he's supposed to have been good in.
    _
  • blazing_saddles
    blazing_saddles Posts: 22,730
    edited June 2021
    RichN95. said:

    mididoctors said:

    What are we thinking about jumbo and it's odd prep stratergy . Kuss has looked a bit under


    They're certainly not the team of last year. WVA's been ill, Dumoulin absent, Bennett average at the Giro. Only Kruijswijk seems to be OK (Roglic aside)
    In case anybody what their line up is supposed to be.....

    VAN AERT Wout
    ROGLIČ Primož
    TEUNISSEN Mike
    GESINK Robert
    VINGEGAARD Jonas
    MARTIN Tony
    KUSS Sepp
    KRUIJSWIJK Steven
    "Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,660
    Tony Martin is getting on a bit isn't he? Gesink too. Are either of them that useful nowadays?
    _
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,227
    rick_chasey said:

    blazing_saddles said:

    Pross said:

    blazing_saddles said:

    Sounds about right to me:

    CARAPAZ Richard
    CASTROVIEJO NICOLAS Jonathan
    DENNIS Rohan
    GEOGHEGAN HART Tao
    KWIATKOWSKI Michal
    PORTE Richie
    ROWE Luke
    THOMAS Geraint
    Reserve.
    DE PLUS Laurens

    Thought Van Baarle would be in there. He's did a good job in 2019 and looked OK last year but lost his leader and role early.
    OK, so here's the obvious hypothetical: who would you leave out to put Van Baarle in?
    Dennis? Though I'll freely admit I've not watched the races he's supposed to have been good in.
    If he get to the form he was in last year's Giro, Dennis is an obvious pick. Potential TT stage wins as well as mountain superdomestique.
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,262
    edited June 2021
    rick_chasey said:

    Tony Martin is getting on a bit isn't he? Gesink too. Are either of them that useful nowadays?


    They both still consistently put in a decent shift. But they’re not going to break other top teams.
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,660
    RichN95. said:

    rick_chasey said:

    Tony Martin is getting on a bit isn't he? Gesink too. Are either of them that useful nowadays?


    They both can still consistently put in a decent shift
    Mm not so sure about Gesink. I am a fan but he was not super useful last Tour.

    Out the back either before or just metres after WvA was finished.
    _
  • Dorset_Boy
    Dorset_Boy Posts: 7,610
    If Wout van Aert is acting super-dom again and MVdP possibly not intending to finish the Tour it starts to become hard to see beyond another Sagan green jersey.
  • andyp
    andyp Posts: 10,575
    Is WVA going to make the Tour? He's not raced since Amstel Gold and had, if memory serves, appendicitis.
  • andyp
    andyp Posts: 10,575
    blazing_saddles said:

    Pross said:

    blazing_saddles said:

    Sounds about right to me:

    CARAPAZ Richard
    CASTROVIEJO NICOLAS Jonathan
    DENNIS Rohan
    GEOGHEGAN HART Tao
    KWIATKOWSKI Michal
    PORTE Richie
    ROWE Luke
    THOMAS Geraint
    Reserve.
    DE PLUS Laurens

    Thought Van Baarle would be in there. He's did a good job in 2019 and looked OK last year but lost his leader and role early.
    OK, so here's the obvious hypothetical: who would you leave out to put Van Baarle in?
    Castroviejo. He did a *lot* of work at the Giro and could be very tired by the third week. Give him a decent break instead and have him form part of your core team for the Vuelta.
  • blazing_saddles
    blazing_saddles Posts: 22,730
    edited June 2021
    andyp said:

    blazing_saddles said:

    Pross said:

    blazing_saddles said:

    Sounds about right to me:

    CARAPAZ Richard
    CASTROVIEJO NICOLAS Jonathan
    DENNIS Rohan
    GEOGHEGAN HART Tao
    KWIATKOWSKI Michal
    PORTE Richie
    ROWE Luke
    THOMAS Geraint
    Reserve.
    DE PLUS Laurens

    Thought Van Baarle would be in there. He's did a good job in 2019 and looked OK last year but lost his leader and role early.
    OK, so here's the obvious hypothetical: who would you leave out to put Van Baarle in?
    Castroviejo. He did a *lot* of work at the Giro and could be very tired by the third week. Give him a decent break instead and have him form part of your core team for the Vuelta.
    True, but his ability to go further up the mountains, is probably the deciding factor.
    Despite Van Baarle having a very good classics campaign, he hasn't seem to be climbing as well as he has in the past.
    Maybe that's why De Plus is the spare on PCS's start list.
    Nothing is yet cast in stone.

    So far, Jumbo are the only team which has been confirmed
    "Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,593
    kingstongraham said:

    DeVlaeminck said:

    Apart from Sagan anyone know who the green jersey contenders are likely to be.

    Usual suspects I'd assume. If Bennett doesn't make it, then Ewan, Demare, Van Aert, Nizzolo, Merlier etc.

    Does the points system make it possible that someone like Alaphillippe or Van der Poel gets a shot at it with this parcours? Or is it firmly geared towards the sprinters?
    I would suggest that if Sagan is a contender then Van Der Poel is too. In terms of out-and-out sprinting I think he's quicker than Sagan but probably lacks a bit of Sagan's nous to be in the right position. JA may be chasing a high GC position so would be less likely to go after the intermediate points.
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,262
    edited June 2021
    Is Van der Poel even going to finish? There be must a good chance of dropping out early. And what’s the deal with Olympic COVID bubbles?
    Twitter: @RichN95

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