TDF 2020 - Stage 17 Grenoble - Méribel Col de la Loze 170 km *Spoilers*

davidof

poweredbyidris said:

They're taking the 'other' road up the Madeleine - a bit more irregular than the main road, so might be a bit harder to control for JV if someone gets feisty (this is wishful thinking)

There are 3 other roads. You can also go via the lacets de Montvernier and there is a Strade Bianchi that ends up directly at the col for the gravel bike enthusiasts. Now that would be an interesting tour climb.

DeadCalm

coopster_the_1st said:

bobmcstuff said:

Well, the bookies have Pogacar as favourite followed by Roglic. This is in pretty sharp contrast to INRNG and most of the commentary here where we think JV will be happy to let a big break go to take all the time bonuses because Pogacar seems very capable of outsprinting Roglic to the line.

INRNG:
*** Dani Martinez, Marc Soler
** Tadej Pogačar, Primož Roglič, Marc Hirschi, Esteban Chaves
* Carthy, Nieve, D Martin, Sivakov, Bilbao, Lutsenko

I would love for Martinez to win...

Bookies (based on Oddschecker aggregate rankings)
*** Pogacar, Roglic (shorter than 10/1)
** Lopez, Hirschi, Martinez, Landa, Porte (10-20/1)
* Carapaz, Soler (20-30/1)

Pogacar has odds as short as 5/2 in a few places (11/4 at Sky Bet which is the shortest) and Roglic as short as 3/1, which is relatively short in cycling terms.

It's up to UAE to keep the break in check as I doubt JV will try to. UAE have to do this but will they?

UAE don't have the strength or numbers. I'm hoping (but not expecting) that Astana and possibly Trek will lend a hand. You'd think it would be in their interest to do so. I'm also hoping that Bora will have one final stab at dislodging Bennett from the race.

DeVlaeminck

Shame they didn't stick the Glandon in there as a warm up.

poweredbyidris

DeVlaeminck said:

Shame they didn't stick the Glandon in there as a warm up.

I get the feeling you are not Sam Bennett...

darkhairedlord

DeVlaeminck said:

Shame they didn't stick the Glandon in there as a warm up.

Add one more and it can be the Everest stage.

mididoctors

I actually would laugh if roglic didn't win . Conversely I would applaud him if he did . But I must say pogacar is moving in the right direction .

The pair look super close . I picked pogacar to win s17 but think it's just as likley roglic drops him . Real toss up. If jumbo don't win after all that it's going to taste bitter on that second step

Someone will go longish or at least earlier on stage 17 and open up the GC . Lopez lands Yates or whoever

mididoctors

Kom jersey may create a fair bit of early action trying to get a race winning move going . Bit desperate thou

Dorset_Boy

I don't think there's anywhere on the first part of the climb from Moutiers to the Ronde Pointe at the top of Meribel that would prompt a long range attack, but the steepness of the new road from there to the Col is very likely to result in gaps. It also isn't all that wide.

Would be great to see someone go super long from the Madeleine!

jimmyjams

davidof said:

poweredbyidris said:

They're taking the 'other' road up the Madeleine - a bit more irregular than the main road, so might be a bit harder to control for JV if someone gets feisty (this is wishful thinking)

There are 3 other roads. You can also go via the lacets de Montvernier and there is a Strade Bianchi that ends up directly at the col for the gravel bike enthusiasts. Now that would be an interesting tour climb.

The Madeleine is perhaps my favourite French Alpine pass although maybe just out of familiarity, having stayed at La Chambre 3 times. I've ridden all the climbs from the South more than once, as well as from the North once.

jimmyjams

davidof said:

My thoughts on the Col de la Loze

https://youtu.be/Zg0bGb9LEWc

I read the Col de la Loze isn't going to be freely open to motor vehicles, so maybe the barrier at the end of Davidof's video will be as far as one can get in a car from Courchevel and later a similar barrier will be installed on the Meribel side, and both made not easily driven around.

Also read that there are plans to link Meribel-Mottaret and St. Martin-de-Belleville to the west via a similar new pass road over the Pas de Cherferie, currently a narrow gravel road.

mididoctors

The Madeleine is a massive hump that goes on for ever is my memory of it. Just remember pedalling forever and then reaching 10 km to go

rick_chasey

mididoctors said:

The Madeleine is a massive hump that goes on for ever is my memory of it. Just remember pedalling forever and then reaching 10 km to go

Hoping Millar will bring out his 'worst day on the bike' story up there.

I suspect it won't do that much as the final climb is just so hard, judging by the profile; they'll all be intimidated by that.

pblakeney

rick_chasey said:

I suspect it won't do that much as the final climb is just so hard, judging by the profile; they'll all be intimidated by that.

True. It will be a measured gradual thinning out process.
GC race begins on the final climb. The breakaway will need to be strong to stay away.

mididoctors

davidof said:

My thoughts on the Col de la Loze

https://youtu.be/Zg0bGb9LEWc

Your Good on camera Dave . Could handle more of those . Especially the new cols like this .

mididoctors

rick_chasey said:

mididoctors said:

The Madeleine is a massive hump that goes on for ever is my memory of it. Just remember pedalling forever and then reaching 10 km to go

Hoping Millar will bring out his 'worst day on the bike' story up there.

I suspect it won't do that much as the final climb is just so hard, judging by the profile; they'll all be intimidated by that.

From Dave's video it looks horrible like the top of Dunn fell on steroids

What was that climb nario won a few years back 2018 I think. Was one of these new super high just been Tarmacked rampy climbs

rick_chasey

mididoctors said:

rick_chasey said:

mididoctors said:

The Madeleine is a massive hump that goes on for ever is my memory of it. Just remember pedalling forever and then reaching 10 km to go

Hoping Millar will bring out his 'worst day on the bike' story up there.

I suspect it won't do that much as the final climb is just so hard, judging by the profile; they'll all be intimidated by that.

From Dave's video it looks horrible like the top of Dunn fell on steroids

What was that climb nario won a few years back 2018 I think. Was one of these bew super high just been Tamaced rampy climbs

Yeah it wasn't that high though.

It's nuts to have a good 17km climb which would be HC in anyone's book and then to back it up with a 4km wall.

kingstongraham

mididoctors said:

davidof said:

My thoughts on the Col de la Loze

https://youtu.be/Zg0bGb9LEWc

Your Good on camera Dave . Could handle more of those . Especially the new cols like this .

Agreed. Liked this: "Honestly it's one of the worst climbs I've done in the Alps... and I've only done half of it... It just goes on and on and on."

Going to be a hard day for everyone.

blazing_saddles

rick_chasey said:

That final climb is *ridiculous*

You want ridiculous?
How's this?

What kind of riders can this kind of finish benefit?

This (climb) is more to the advantage of punchers, in my opinion, than pure climbers.
Riders who are able to recover from the steepness can make a difference. These are short intensities. It is more reminiscent of certain Giro or Vuelta passes. After that, it remains extremely difficult, we must not think that Wout van Aert or riders like that can win. An electric battery like Julian Alaphilippe, if he's on his feet, why not?

from Pierre-Yves Chatelon, French U23 coach

bobmcstuff

De Gendt trying very hard for the breakaway. Group of 3 initially but now there are loads more trying to get across - including Sagan tailed by the green jersey.

Kauto5

blazing_saddles said:

rick_chasey said:

That final climb is *ridiculous*

You want ridiculous?
How's this?

What kind of riders can this kind of finish benefit?

This (climb) is more to the advantage of punchers, in my opinion, than pure climbers.
Riders who are able to recover from the steepness can make a difference. These are short intensities. It is more reminiscent of certain Giro or Vuelta passes. After that, it remains extremely difficult, we must not think that Wout van Aert or riders like that can win. An electric battery like Julian Alaphilippe, if he's on his feet, why not?

from Pierre-Yves Chatelon, French U23 coach

We'll have to keep an eye out for Alaphilippe's bike changes in that case.

No_Ta_Doctor

GC action will be limited to who gets spat out the back. Nobody is going to risk blowing up on that.

bobmcstuff

Sagan bike change. Gears issue. Pacing the cars back on.

davidof

bobmcstuff said:

Sagan bike change. Gears issue. Pacing the cars back on.

en live pres de chez moi :-)

https://youtu.be/Ax-LVSsLYmA

rick_chasey

There's a joke somewhere there - how many riders does it take to get back to TdG?

blazing_saddles

Unless this lump forces the break, which I doubt, the attack antics could continue to the foot of the Madeleine.

rick_chasey

blazing_saddles said:

Unless this lump forces the break, which I doubt, the attack antics could continue to the foot of the Madeleine.

I mean the prospect of today's stage, and then going this balls out in the flat beforehand; these guys are another level.

davidof

blazing_saddles

Bit of a boss breakaway dangling off the front while Van Aert hoovers up the chasse pataters.

ddraver

https://twitter.com/LeTour/status/1306188323384418310?s=20

Impey in the middle, flicking his elbow at the non-existent companion he wishes he had...

bobmcstuff

Dammit, Martinez looked like he was going into the break right before 12 so I put him in as a PTP...