The big Coronavirus thread
Comments
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Boredom?kingstongraham said:6,000 excess deaths in week ending April 3rd. 3,500 coronavirus deaths. What do people think most of the additional 2,500 deaths are if not unreported coronavirus deaths?
I can understand the official statisticians being wary of assigning a cause, but realistically?0 -
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Fell again today. Seems promising.surrey_commuter said:DM headline “the worse is yet to come, even though deal toll falls for third day in a row”
Any readers with two cells to rub together will be confused.
The others are going to censored themselves on Wednesday0 -
There's a suspicion the care home deaths will be added to the death toll tomorrow. Unconfirmed.kingstongraham said:
Fell again today. Seems promising.surrey_commuter said:DM headline “the worse is yet to come, even though deal toll falls for third day in a row”
Any readers with two cells to rub together will be confused.
The others are going to censored themselves on Wednesday0 -
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Fyi re payments at end of this month:kingstongraham said:Will be an impressive achievement to get that open and working one month from its announcement.
https://bbc.co.uk/news/business-52279455"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
The govt has not yet decided whether it finishes at the end of May or will be extended (and if so, for how long).First.Aspect said:The furlough scheme will end in a small number of months. The economy will not have bounced back by then. In a lot of firms everyone who is furloughed is by implication on a list of potential redundancies.
Discuss (or am I still in remedial school on this one?)
And my understanding is that if you are furloughed then one condition is you must have a job to return to."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
I'm confused about that one as in the press conference I heard on Monday the CSO (I think) said that the numbers are recorded and can be obtained from the ONS but the reason they don't count them on a daily basis is that it takes longer for that information to come through. That suggests the information is there for anyone who wants it albeit not fully up-to-date. So either I misunderstood, the CSO was lying or David King is mistaken (the first option is obviously the most likely).rick_chasey said:To bang home the care home stats problem:
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People are infectious two days before showing any symptoms.0
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Welcome to the thread.focuszing723 said:People are infectious two days before showing any symptoms.
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Even if you take those into account, you only end up with 10-20% more deaths... currently Belgium is reporting 250-300 deaths per day, which multiplying by 6 would be the equivalent of the UK reporting 1500-1800 per day, which would raise eyebrows at the very least...rick_chasey said:
They are counting care home deaths, right?First.Aspect said:
No, the summary was that the reasons were complex/unknown.rick_chasey said:
This got discussed a while back. A mixture of things not going well and how they're counting it I think was the summary?ugo.santalucia said:Anybody else baffled by Belgium?
They do a lot of testing, but yet they have a 15% mortality, which is the highest I have seen... the number of deaths per population is the same as Spain and increasing fast...
Yet, they have been in lockdown for a month...
If you recall, it was put forward as an example to be cautious about drawing direct lines between policy "causes" and clinical "effects". You proposed that they were counting correctly and we were not. Some people disagreed.
AFAIK the UK isn't.left the forum March 20230 -
The argument above is that almost all continental Europeans have care home deaths making up between 40-50% of total corona deaths, and the UK is only running at 10%. So my point is it's quite likely the UK is massively under-counting the care home deaths.ugo.santalucia said:
Even if you take those into account, you only end up with 10-20% more deaths... currently Belgium is reporting 250-300 deaths per day, which multiplying by 6 would be the equivalent of the UK reporting 1500-1800 per day, which would raise eyebrows at the very least...rick_chasey said:
They are counting care home deaths, right?First.Aspect said:
No, the summary was that the reasons were complex/unknown.rick_chasey said:
This got discussed a while back. A mixture of things not going well and how they're counting it I think was the summary?ugo.santalucia said:Anybody else baffled by Belgium?
They do a lot of testing, but yet they have a 15% mortality, which is the highest I have seen... the number of deaths per population is the same as Spain and increasing fast...
Yet, they have been in lockdown for a month...
If you recall, it was put forward as an example to be cautious about drawing direct lines between policy "causes" and clinical "effects". You proposed that they were counting correctly and we were not. Some people disagreed.
AFAIK the UK isn't.
So it will increase by half again (at least...!!!), which is why the ex Chief Medical Officer is saying what he is above.0 -
I suspect a number of these, maybe 1k are C19 deaths outside of hospital however where the other 1.5k are is a concern.kingstongraham said:6,000 excess deaths in week ending April 3rd. 3,500 coronavirus deaths. What do people think most of the additional 2,500 deaths are if not unreported coronavirus deaths?
I can understand the official statisticians being wary of assigning a cause, but realistically?
Based on news reports I have seen from A+E doctors it seems genuinely ill people e.g. sepsis, heart attacks, strokes, etc, are not presenting themselves to A+E, likely because they fear catching C19 as it is easy to see from the way it is reported that if you catch C19, you are going to die.0 -
It means we don't know where we are now because there is a much longer lag before the non-hospital deaths are reported. Whether or not you believe the ONS stats for the period where data is available, is up to you. There seems to be a lot of "it must be 50% because that's what it is in France" going on, so one may as well join in.Pross said:
I'm confused about that one as in the press conference I heard on Monday the CSO (I think) said that the numbers are recorded and can be obtained from the ONS but the reason they don't count them on a daily basis is that it takes longer for that information to come through. That suggests the information is there for anyone who wants it albeit not fully up-to-date. So either I misunderstood, the CSO was lying or David King is mistaken (the first option is obviously the most likely).rick_chasey said:To bang home the care home stats problem:
A couple of posts seem to be conflating how may non-hospital Covid deaths there could be (to add to the daily total) and how many additional non-Covid deaths there seem to be.
There may be some undiagnosed Covid deaths amongst those, but over time it will also be true that Covid was not a (primary) cause of death after all in other cases. At the moment, where there is a Covid-19 diagnosis at time of death, that death is attributed to Covid-19, more or less. However, it has been known for some time that all countries will be to some degree over counting the additional deaths resulting from this virus.
But it isn't at all likely that the "missing" causes in the recent total-deaths stats are all down to Covid-19. Rather, as has also been widely reported, the rest of the health service is alarmingly quiet and deaths from other causes are inevitably going to spike. Remember the video from the nice Scottish fellow about balancing harms? This is what he was talking about.
But again, if you insist, until proven otherwise feel free to take the view that all of the additional weekly deaths are Covid-19 deaths that are being missed from our statistics because we can't count and don't test.
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Rick, do you honestly think there are unreported corpses piling up in care homes? Or that care homes just aren't reporting deaths?rick_chasey said:
The argument above is that almost all continental Europeans have care home deaths making up between 40-50% of total corona deaths, and the UK is only running at 10%. So my point is it's quite likely the UK is massively under-counting the care home deaths.ugo.santalucia said:
Even if you take those into account, you only end up with 10-20% more deaths... currently Belgium is reporting 250-300 deaths per day, which multiplying by 6 would be the equivalent of the UK reporting 1500-1800 per day, which would raise eyebrows at the very least...rick_chasey said:
They are counting care home deaths, right?First.Aspect said:
No, the summary was that the reasons were complex/unknown.rick_chasey said:
This got discussed a while back. A mixture of things not going well and how they're counting it I think was the summary?ugo.santalucia said:Anybody else baffled by Belgium?
They do a lot of testing, but yet they have a 15% mortality, which is the highest I have seen... the number of deaths per population is the same as Spain and increasing fast...
Yet, they have been in lockdown for a month...
If you recall, it was put forward as an example to be cautious about drawing direct lines between policy "causes" and clinical "effects". You proposed that they were counting correctly and we were not. Some people disagreed.
AFAIK the UK isn't.
So it will increase by half again (at least...!!!), which is why the ex Chief Medical Officer is saying what he is above.
No, that would be ludicrous wouldn't it.0 -
But you're still assuming the care home systems in the UK is the same as in Europe which it may or may not be (and the quotes above are from the former Chief Scientific Adviser just to be pedantic).rick_chasey said:
The argument above is that almost all continental Europeans have care home deaths making up between 40-50% of total corona deaths, and the UK is only running at 10%. So my point is it's quite likely the UK is massively under-counting the care home deaths.ugo.santalucia said:
Even if you take those into account, you only end up with 10-20% more deaths... currently Belgium is reporting 250-300 deaths per day, which multiplying by 6 would be the equivalent of the UK reporting 1500-1800 per day, which would raise eyebrows at the very least...rick_chasey said:
They are counting care home deaths, right?First.Aspect said:
No, the summary was that the reasons were complex/unknown.rick_chasey said:
This got discussed a while back. A mixture of things not going well and how they're counting it I think was the summary?ugo.santalucia said:Anybody else baffled by Belgium?
They do a lot of testing, but yet they have a 15% mortality, which is the highest I have seen... the number of deaths per population is the same as Spain and increasing fast...
Yet, they have been in lockdown for a month...
If you recall, it was put forward as an example to be cautious about drawing direct lines between policy "causes" and clinical "effects". You proposed that they were counting correctly and we were not. Some people disagreed.
AFAIK the UK isn't.
So it will increase by half again (at least...!!!), which is why the ex Chief Medical Officer is saying what he is above.0 -
Which posts are conflating non-corona deaths with non-hospital corona deaths?First.Aspect said:
It means we don't know where we are now because there is a much longer lag before the non-hospital deaths are reported. Whether or not you believe the ONS stats for the period where data is available, is up to you. There seems to be a lot of "it must be 50% because that's what it is in France" going on, so one may as well join in.Pross said:
I'm confused about that one as in the press conference I heard on Monday the CSO (I think) said that the numbers are recorded and can be obtained from the ONS but the reason they don't count them on a daily basis is that it takes longer for that information to come through. That suggests the information is there for anyone who wants it albeit not fully up-to-date. So either I misunderstood, the CSO was lying or David King is mistaken (the first option is obviously the most likely).rick_chasey said:To bang home the care home stats problem:
A couple of posts seem to be conflating how may non-hospital Covid deaths there could be (to add to the daily total) and how many additional non-Covid deaths there seem to be.
There may be some undiagnosed Covid deaths amongst those, but over time it will also be true that Covid was not a (primary) cause of death after all in other cases. At the moment, where there is a Covid-19 diagnosis at time of death, that death is attributed to Covid-19, more or less. However, it has been known for some time that all countries will be to some degree over counting the additional deaths resulting from this virus.
But it isn't at all likely that the "missing" causes in the recent total-deaths stats are all down to Covid-19. Rather, as has also been widely reported, the rest of the health service is alarmingly quiet and deaths from other causes are inevitably going to spike. Remember the video from the nice Scottish fellow about balancing harms? This is what he was talking about.
But again, if you insist, until proven otherwise feel free to take the view that all of the additional weekly deaths are Covid-19 deaths that are being missed from our statistics because we can't count and don't test.
Do you think the UK care-home corona deaths will be a materially lower proportion of the overall UK corona death count and if so, why?
I don't disagree with you that there will be lots of excess non-corona mortality as a result of reduced services, but I don't quite know why that is a focus of yours, as that doesn't go away unless corona does?0 -
Given that the geographical distribution of the excess is pretty closely aligned with the distribution of reported coronavirus deaths, I suspect 2.5k of them are coronavirus.coopster_the_1st said:
I suspect a number of these, maybe 1k are C19 deaths outside of hospital however where the other 1.5k are is a concern.kingstongraham said:6,000 excess deaths in week ending April 3rd. 3,500 coronavirus deaths. What do people think most of the additional 2,500 deaths are if not unreported coronavirus deaths?
I can understand the official statisticians being wary of assigning a cause, but realistically?
Based on news reports I have seen from A+E doctors it seems genuinely ill people e.g. sepsis, heart attacks, strokes, etc, are not presenting themselves to A+E, likely because they fear catching C19 as it is easy to see from the way it is reported that if you catch C19, you are going to die.
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I don't see much reason to think it's different to be honest. I've had relatives in the dutch system and the UK system and they are remarkably similar.Pross said:
But you're still assuming the care home systems in the UK is the same as in Europe which it may or may not be (and the quotes above are from the former Chief Scientific Adviser just to be pedantic).rick_chasey said:
The argument above is that almost all continental Europeans have care home deaths making up between 40-50% of total corona deaths, and the UK is only running at 10%. So my point is it's quite likely the UK is massively under-counting the care home deaths.ugo.santalucia said:
Even if you take those into account, you only end up with 10-20% more deaths... currently Belgium is reporting 250-300 deaths per day, which multiplying by 6 would be the equivalent of the UK reporting 1500-1800 per day, which would raise eyebrows at the very least...rick_chasey said:
They are counting care home deaths, right?First.Aspect said:
No, the summary was that the reasons were complex/unknown.rick_chasey said:
This got discussed a while back. A mixture of things not going well and how they're counting it I think was the summary?ugo.santalucia said:Anybody else baffled by Belgium?
They do a lot of testing, but yet they have a 15% mortality, which is the highest I have seen... the number of deaths per population is the same as Spain and increasing fast...
Yet, they have been in lockdown for a month...
If you recall, it was put forward as an example to be cautious about drawing direct lines between policy "causes" and clinical "effects". You proposed that they were counting correctly and we were not. Some people disagreed.
AFAIK the UK isn't.
So it will increase by half again (at least...!!!), which is why the ex Chief Medical Officer is saying what he is above.
Is there something quite unique about the UK system? You tell me.
I sort of feel like I'm arriving at the obvious conclusion and people are resisting because "we don't know yet".
I only heard that the govt was going to focus on testing people who work in care homes *this morning* so I'm not filled with confidence that the gov't is on top of the situation.0 -
No doubt most of us would rather wait for the facts/stats rather than speculate. Which if current speculation is right, could be tomorrow.First.Aspect said:
Rick, do you honestly think there are unreported corpses piling up in care homes? Or that care homes just aren't reporting deaths?rick_chasey said:
The argument above is that almost all continental Europeans have care home deaths making up between 40-50% of total corona deaths, and the UK is only running at 10%. So my point is it's quite likely the UK is massively under-counting the care home deaths.ugo.santalucia said:
Even if you take those into account, you only end up with 10-20% more deaths... currently Belgium is reporting 250-300 deaths per day, which multiplying by 6 would be the equivalent of the UK reporting 1500-1800 per day, which would raise eyebrows at the very least...rick_chasey said:
They are counting care home deaths, right?First.Aspect said:
No, the summary was that the reasons were complex/unknown.rick_chasey said:
This got discussed a while back. A mixture of things not going well and how they're counting it I think was the summary?ugo.santalucia said:Anybody else baffled by Belgium?
They do a lot of testing, but yet they have a 15% mortality, which is the highest I have seen... the number of deaths per population is the same as Spain and increasing fast...
Yet, they have been in lockdown for a month...
If you recall, it was put forward as an example to be cautious about drawing direct lines between policy "causes" and clinical "effects". You proposed that they were counting correctly and we were not. Some people disagreed.
AFAIK the UK isn't.
So it will increase by half again (at least...!!!), which is why the ex Chief Medical Officer is saying what he is above.
No, that would be ludicrous wouldn't it."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
The BBC article on care home deaths yesterday only gave one actual example, and it was a person who contracted the illness in a care home, but died in hospital, as is standard practice in residential care homes in the UK. We had this discussion at length yesterday.
The real issue is that care homes are down the pecking order for access to PPE, and as they are private sector organisations they have to buy them and this is getting difficult, it's very much a sellers market.0 -
Could well be, we can only speculate. I am just going on a news interview with an A+E doctor who said he had not seen a sepsis patient in weeks when he would normally see at least one a week. And other medical professionals have reported they are concerned people with Strokes and Heart Attacks are avoiding A+E for fear of catching C19.kingstongraham said:
Given that the geographical distribution of the excess is pretty closely aligned with the distribution of reported coronavirus deaths, I suspect 2.5k of them are coronavirus.coopster_the_1st said:
I suspect a number of these, maybe 1k are C19 deaths outside of hospital however where the other 1.5k are is a concern.kingstongraham said:6,000 excess deaths in week ending April 3rd. 3,500 coronavirus deaths. What do people think most of the additional 2,500 deaths are if not unreported coronavirus deaths?
I can understand the official statisticians being wary of assigning a cause, but realistically?
Based on news reports I have seen from A+E doctors it seems genuinely ill people e.g. sepsis, heart attacks, strokes, etc, are not presenting themselves to A+E, likely because they fear catching C19 as it is easy to see from the way it is reported that if you catch C19, you are going to die.0 -
rick_chasey said:
I don't see much reason to think it's different to be honest. I've had relatives in the dutch system and the UK system and they are remarkably similar.Pross said:
But you're still assuming the care home systems in the UK is the same as in Europe which it may or may not be (and the quotes above are from the former Chief Scientific Adviser just to be pedantic).rick_chasey said:
The argument above is that almost all continental Europeans have care home deaths making up between 40-50% of total corona deaths, and the UK is only running at 10%. So my point is it's quite likely the UK is massively under-counting the care home deaths.ugo.santalucia said:
Even if you take those into account, you only end up with 10-20% more deaths... currently Belgium is reporting 250-300 deaths per day, which multiplying by 6 would be the equivalent of the UK reporting 1500-1800 per day, which would raise eyebrows at the very least...rick_chasey said:
They are counting care home deaths, right?First.Aspect said:
No, the summary was that the reasons were complex/unknown.rick_chasey said:
This got discussed a while back. A mixture of things not going well and how they're counting it I think was the summary?ugo.santalucia said:Anybody else baffled by Belgium?
They do a lot of testing, but yet they have a 15% mortality, which is the highest I have seen... the number of deaths per population is the same as Spain and increasing fast...
Yet, they have been in lockdown for a month...
If you recall, it was put forward as an example to be cautious about drawing direct lines between policy "causes" and clinical "effects". You proposed that they were counting correctly and we were not. Some people disagreed.
AFAIK the UK isn't.
So it will increase by half again (at least...!!!), which is why the ex Chief Medical Officer is saying what he is above.
Is there something quite unique about the UK system? You tell me.
I sort of feel like I'm arriving at the obvious conclusion and people are resisting because "we don't know yet".
I don't know and I suspect no-one on here (other than maybe mrfpb) knows. However, it seems to me that we have very limited capacity of true nursing homes i.e. the sort of places people go either when they've recovered enough to leave hospital but can't look after themselves or where end of life patients go to see out their remaining days in a more homely environment. How many times have you heard reference to 'bed blocking' (I hate the term as it makes the person sound like an inconvenience) i.e. those well enough to be medically discharged but with nowhere to go if they leave hospital? Anyone with the misfortune of having an elderly relative requiring nursing care outside of hospital will know how hard it is to find a place and you are literally waiting for someone to die so they can get a room. If other countries have a much larger availability of that sort of provision then it would explain why a larger proportion are dying in that setting.rick_chasey said:
I don't see much reason to think it's different to be honest. I've had relatives in the dutch system and the UK system and they are remarkably similar.Pross said:
But you're still assuming the care home systems in the UK is the same as in Europe which it may or may not be (and the quotes above are from the former Chief Scientific Adviser just to be pedantic).rick_chasey said:
The argument above is that almost all continental Europeans have care home deaths making up between 40-50% of total corona deaths, and the UK is only running at 10%. So my point is it's quite likely the UK is massively under-counting the care home deaths.ugo.santalucia said:
Even if you take those into account, you only end up with 10-20% more deaths... currently Belgium is reporting 250-300 deaths per day, which multiplying by 6 would be the equivalent of the UK reporting 1500-1800 per day, which would raise eyebrows at the very least...rick_chasey said:
They are counting care home deaths, right?First.Aspect said:
No, the summary was that the reasons were complex/unknown.rick_chasey said:
This got discussed a while back. A mixture of things not going well and how they're counting it I think was the summary?ugo.santalucia said:Anybody else baffled by Belgium?
They do a lot of testing, but yet they have a 15% mortality, which is the highest I have seen... the number of deaths per population is the same as Spain and increasing fast...
Yet, they have been in lockdown for a month...
If you recall, it was put forward as an example to be cautious about drawing direct lines between policy "causes" and clinical "effects". You proposed that they were counting correctly and we were not. Some people disagreed.
AFAIK the UK isn't.
So it will increase by half again (at least...!!!), which is why the ex Chief Medical Officer is saying what he is above.
Is there something quite unique about the UK system? You tell me.
I sort of feel like I'm arriving at the obvious conclusion and people are resisting because "we don't know yet".0 -
The fact that the BBC couldn't find someone who had died in a care home from Covid 19 is telling, don't you think?
All care home deaths (res care or nursing care) require a statutory notification to CQC, indicating if it's "expected" or "unexpected" death, so stats should be available, but not as quickly as hospital stats (collating stats from 19,000 location versus 200 locations). CQC are now asking care homes to be clearer upfront if a death is Covid 19 or not. This may mean it's quicker than two weeks, but it would be hard to turn it around in 24 hours as they do with the hospitals.
I pointed out a few days ago that GDP figures take two years to complete, but the finance sector goes along with the figure given the month after the quarter, because that's all they have. The hospital deaths figure is incomplete, but it's been the most reliable metric so far for policy decisions.
As the statisticians joke puts it:
There are two types of people, those that can extrapolate from incomplete data...0 -
How do they record a covid death without testing? Serious question, I don't know the answer.mrfpb said:The fact that the BBC couldn't find someone who had died in a care home from Covid 19 is telling, don't you think?
All care home deaths (res care or nursing care) require a statutory notification to CQC, indicating if it's "expected" or "unexpected" death, so stats should be available, but not as quickly as hospital stats (collating stats from 19,000 location versus 200 locations). CQC are now asking care homes to be clearer upfront if a death is Covid 19 or not. This may mean it's quicker than two weeks, but it would be hard to turn it around in 24 hours as they do with the hospitals.
I pointed out a few days ago that GDP figures take two years to complete, but the finance sector goes along with the figure given the month after the quarter, because that's all they have. The hospital deaths figure is incomplete, but it's been the most reliable metric so far for policy decisions.
As the statisticians joke puts it:
There are two types of people, those that can extrapolate from incomplete data...
You can see why I'm sceptical the UK elderly care system protects the elderly from corona deaths by a factor of five versus the rest of Europe, right?0 -
To be fair, yesterday you didn't know the difference between a residential home and a nursing home so I think I'll await official figures rather than your assumption that we must be the same as Europe.rick_chasey said:
How do they record a covid death without testing? Serious question, I don't know the answer.mrfpb said:The fact that the BBC couldn't find someone who had died in a care home from Covid 19 is telling, don't you think?
All care home deaths (res care or nursing care) require a statutory notification to CQC, indicating if it's "expected" or "unexpected" death, so stats should be available, but not as quickly as hospital stats (collating stats from 19,000 location versus 200 locations). CQC are now asking care homes to be clearer upfront if a death is Covid 19 or not. This may mean it's quicker than two weeks, but it would be hard to turn it around in 24 hours as they do with the hospitals.
I pointed out a few days ago that GDP figures take two years to complete, but the finance sector goes along with the figure given the month after the quarter, because that's all they have. The hospital deaths figure is incomplete, but it's been the most reliable metric so far for policy decisions.
As the statisticians joke puts it:
There are two types of people, those that can extrapolate from incomplete data...
You can see why I'm sceptical the UK elderly care system protects the elderly from corona deaths by a factor of five versus the rest of Europe, right?0 -
Pross said:
To be fair, yesterday you didn't know the difference between a residential home and a nursing home so I think I'll await official figures rather than your assumption that we must be the same as Europe.rick_chasey said:
How do they record a covid death without testing? Serious question, I don't know the answer.mrfpb said:The fact that the BBC couldn't find someone who had died in a care home from Covid 19 is telling, don't you think?
All care home deaths (res care or nursing care) require a statutory notification to CQC, indicating if it's "expected" or "unexpected" death, so stats should be available, but not as quickly as hospital stats (collating stats from 19,000 location versus 200 locations). CQC are now asking care homes to be clearer upfront if a death is Covid 19 or not. This may mean it's quicker than two weeks, but it would be hard to turn it around in 24 hours as they do with the hospitals.
I pointed out a few days ago that GDP figures take two years to complete, but the finance sector goes along with the figure given the month after the quarter, because that's all they have. The hospital deaths figure is incomplete, but it's been the most reliable metric so far for policy decisions.
As the statisticians joke puts it:
There are two types of people, those that can extrapolate from incomplete data...
You can see why I'm sceptical the UK elderly care system protects the elderly from corona deaths by a factor of five versus the rest of Europe, right?
"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Great put down but I’d love to know you answer, and if it’s don’t know, give me your best guess.Pross said:
To be fair, yesterday you didn't know the difference between a residential home and a nursing home so I think I'll await official figures rather than your assumption that we must be the same as Europe.rick_chasey said:
How do they record a covid death without testing? Serious question, I don't know the answer.mrfpb said:The fact that the BBC couldn't find someone who had died in a care home from Covid 19 is telling, don't you think?
All care home deaths (res care or nursing care) require a statutory notification to CQC, indicating if it's "expected" or "unexpected" death, so stats should be available, but not as quickly as hospital stats (collating stats from 19,000 location versus 200 locations). CQC are now asking care homes to be clearer upfront if a death is Covid 19 or not. This may mean it's quicker than two weeks, but it would be hard to turn it around in 24 hours as they do with the hospitals.
I pointed out a few days ago that GDP figures take two years to complete, but the finance sector goes along with the figure given the month after the quarter, because that's all they have. The hospital deaths figure is incomplete, but it's been the most reliable metric so far for policy decisions.
As the statisticians joke puts it:
There are two types of people, those that can extrapolate from incomplete data...
You can see why I'm sceptical the UK elderly care system protects the elderly from corona deaths by a factor of five versus the rest of Europe, right?0 -
That looks like a downward trend to me. Though given the long weekend, we can still expect a spike tomorrow.0 -
Wouldn't the spike have been today?mrfpb said:
That looks like a downward trend to me. Though given the long weekend, we can still expect a spike tomorrow.0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwoNP9QWr4Y
