The big Coronavirus thread
Comments
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It's not underreporting if it's made clear that the figure is *only* hospital deaths registered on that day. And it was, to the best of my memory, from the start. Or was I the only one that saw this. There will be other, different lags and exclusions in the figures published by other countries. ALL the figures are provisional and subject to revision. Apparent divergence in these figures is certainly worth investigating and learning from where it is found that they have indeed been more successful than us, but let's get the full real data.rick_chasey said:
I don't think there is a conspiracy re the numbers.rjsterry said:The thing I have a problem with is the narrative that these figures have been hidden to make us look better. There are so many questionable assumptions in that theory that it's bordering on tinfoil territory. Anyone who has a family member in a care home of one sort or another will be acutely aware that the daily total at the top of each evening news is not the 'real figure'. And in any case I don't believe it was ever intended to be such. It just gives a rough idea of how the spread of the disease is progressing. Comparison with other countries can suggest some further avenues for investigation but there are no safe detailed conclusions to draw on where we are in the 'Covid Olympics'.
It has come because, rightly or wrongly, you measure your success or failure in dealing with it by what proportion of your population die.
It is quite clear, to me at least, that the total official UK corona death figure is not comparable to, say, the French, as the French are counting differently (i.e. they are including deaths beyond hopsitals).
As SC mentioned, they have shifted to make it clear the count the UK is relasing is the hopsital count.
The discussion came up because I spend a lot of time saying that other countries are doing better, relative to the UK, and that it is on the UK gov't's poor decision making and timing. That was disputed, hence the discussion on the stats.
We keep referring to the stats, so it's worth baring in mind that the stats are incomplete.
Surely it is significant that the UK may well be *massively underreporting* care home deaths, or, conversely, it would be equally significant if the UK was dealing with people who are in care homes very differently and that was coming out it the stats, would it not, as it would then be an outlier and worth investigating - not least if it means it has saved a vast amount of lives!!
To be clear, I think there are already several strong candidates in the "things we could have done better" category, but right now we should be focusing on what we *can* do better, rather than what we *could have* done better.1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition1 -
The quarantine was known to not be effectively in place as Japanese government officials coming onto the ship tested positive. Also, there were two weeks between the first infected passenger boarding (or a passenger who'd be infected on the ship) and the quarantine. Cruise ships are also notorious for facilitating the spread of viruses. An Israeli biophysicist had posited that most people are immune to coronavirus, so maybe he was right.focuszing723 said:
On the Diamond Princess there were 712 people confirmed by test as having Covid19 and 12 to date that died. The ship did have 3,700 passengers and crew, but they were isolated.nickice said:It looks like, currently, the antibody test may not be all that, as, according to this doctor, most of the employees would have been exposed to the virus without developing antibodies (and therefore a serological test would be useless for them). I wonder if they'd even have tested positive at any point. It does tie in with the fact that most people aboard the Diamond Princess never had the virus/never tested positive.
https://www.wokinghampaper.co.uk/medical-experts-in-shinfield-approve-covid-19-immunity-testing-kit/
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I'm talking about JRS payments so stick to the subject.surrey_commuter said:
Why don’t you swap prejudices for experiencesStevo_666 said:
HMRC announced it so maybe they are liars?surrey_commuter said:
I was going to check whether that meant the first payments to everybody or the first few hundred payments.Stevo_666 said:
The deferral of VAT for example is automatic and effectively has already 'flowed' in many cases depending on when the instalment are due to pay (which varies). Ditto corporate tax where they just need to ask and show some evidence of adverse impact, which probably isn't difficult where genuine.surrey_commuter said:
I think the worry was always for the SMEs who won’t have the expertise or breathing space to survive until the benefits flow.Stevo_666 said:
I think they already are - and that extends to big groups as well.rjsterry said:
Agreed. I think they are going to have to give quite a lot of SMEs some slack on the precise way it has been implemented in each firm.Stevo_666 said:The job retention scheme seems to be operating as planned so far. The guidance is a bit of a moving feast but will probably only be an issue further down the line if HMRC audit the claims.
Just been on a call this morning with a 'peer group' taken from a fairly wide range of big business and several were saying that they have never known HMRC to be so helpful and flexible. In particular, one opposite number who worked in a large hotel chain said that HMRC had agreed with minimal checks for them to defer their PAYE payments by 3 months - effectively all they did was to get in touch and say how much it was.
There is similar doubt on when furlough money will flow.
As for furlough payments, maybe you missed what I posted earlier today, where HMRC have said that the first payments will be made on 30 April. That's not a bad achievement from a standing start a month ago, wouldn't you say?
Then I realised I don’t believe a word this shambolic bunch of liars says so will judge them on their actions not their words.
And before anybody questions my cynicism how many tests a day are being done?
250,000 - Boris
25,000 rising to 100,000 in two weeks - Hancock
Under 15,000
Why don't you put your prejudices to one side for a couple of weeks or so then we can see if payments have been made by the stated date.
You may believe that there will be 100,000 tests by the end of the month... me, I will base my expectations on the previous gap between utterances and delivery.
However, feel free to do your Minority Report' act of finding people guilty before any crime has been committed if you want. Rick might give you a gold star if you keep it up."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Assuming that this might carry on for months or years do you not think it would be good to accept they have a problem and then work to improve it.rjsterry said:
It's not underreporting if it's made clear that the figure is *only* hospital deaths registered on that day. And it was, to the best of my memory, from the start. Or was I the only one that saw this. There will be other, different lags and exclusions in the figures published by other countries. ALL the figures are provisional and subject to revision. Apparent divergence in these figures is certainly worth investigating and learning from where it is found that they have indeed been more successful than us, but let's get the full real data.rick_chasey said:
I don't think there is a conspiracy re the numbers.rjsterry said:The thing I have a problem with is the narrative that these figures have been hidden to make us look better. There are so many questionable assumptions in that theory that it's bordering on tinfoil territory. Anyone who has a family member in a care home of one sort or another will be acutely aware that the daily total at the top of each evening news is not the 'real figure'. And in any case I don't believe it was ever intended to be such. It just gives a rough idea of how the spread of the disease is progressing. Comparison with other countries can suggest some further avenues for investigation but there are no safe detailed conclusions to draw on where we are in the 'Covid Olympics'.
It has come because, rightly or wrongly, you measure your success or failure in dealing with it by what proportion of your population die.
It is quite clear, to me at least, that the total official UK corona death figure is not comparable to, say, the French, as the French are counting differently (i.e. they are including deaths beyond hopsitals).
As SC mentioned, they have shifted to make it clear the count the UK is relasing is the hopsital count.
The discussion came up because I spend a lot of time saying that other countries are doing better, relative to the UK, and that it is on the UK gov't's poor decision making and timing. That was disputed, hence the discussion on the stats.
We keep referring to the stats, so it's worth baring in mind that the stats are incomplete.
Surely it is significant that the UK may well be *massively underreporting* care home deaths, or, conversely, it would be equally significant if the UK was dealing with people who are in care homes very differently and that was coming out it the stats, would it not, as it would then be an outlier and worth investigating - not least if it means it has saved a vast amount of lives!!
To be clear, I think there are already several strong candidates in the "things we could have done better" category, but right now we should be focusing on what we *can* do better, rather than what we *could have* done better.
I keep reading that private labs keep offering their resources to help boost capacity but that they hear nothing back from the Govt. Maybe if the Govt stopped talking sh1te they would accept they have a problem and work to improve it by at the very least replying to emails offering assistance.
They really are an abject disgrace who are costing this country dearly. There is no point waiting for an inquiry they need to be held to account now, so that they up their game now.0 -
surrey_commuter said:
Assuming that this might carry on for months or years do you not think it would be good to accept they have a problem and then work to improve it.rjsterry said:
It's not underreporting if it's made clear that the figure is *only* hospital deaths registered on that day. And it was, to the best of my memory, from the start. Or was I the only one that saw this. There will be other, different lags and exclusions in the figures published by other countries. ALL the figures are provisional and subject to revision. Apparent divergence in these figures is certainly worth investigating and learning from where it is found that they have indeed been more successful than us, but let's get the full real data.rick_chasey said:
I don't think there is a conspiracy re the numbers.rjsterry said:The thing I have a problem with is the narrative that these figures have been hidden to make us look better. There are so many questionable assumptions in that theory that it's bordering on tinfoil territory. Anyone who has a family member in a care home of one sort or another will be acutely aware that the daily total at the top of each evening news is not the 'real figure'. And in any case I don't believe it was ever intended to be such. It just gives a rough idea of how the spread of the disease is progressing. Comparison with other countries can suggest some further avenues for investigation but there are no safe detailed conclusions to draw on where we are in the 'Covid Olympics'.
It has come because, rightly or wrongly, you measure your success or failure in dealing with it by what proportion of your population die.
It is quite clear, to me at least, that the total official UK corona death figure is not comparable to, say, the French, as the French are counting differently (i.e. they are including deaths beyond hopsitals).
As SC mentioned, they have shifted to make it clear the count the UK is relasing is the hopsital count.
The discussion came up because I spend a lot of time saying that other countries are doing better, relative to the UK, and that it is on the UK gov't's poor decision making and timing. That was disputed, hence the discussion on the stats.
We keep referring to the stats, so it's worth baring in mind that the stats are incomplete.
Surely it is significant that the UK may well be *massively underreporting* care home deaths, or, conversely, it would be equally significant if the UK was dealing with people who are in care homes very differently and that was coming out it the stats, would it not, as it would then be an outlier and worth investigating - not least if it means it has saved a vast amount of lives!!
To be clear, I think there are already several strong candidates in the "things we could have done better" category, but right now we should be focusing on what we *can* do better, rather than what we *could have* done better.
I keep reading that private labs keep offering their resources to help boost capacity but that they hear nothing back from the Govt. Maybe if the Govt stopped talking sh1te they would accept they have a problem and work to improve it by at the very least replying to emails offering assistance.
They really are an abject disgrace who are costing this country dearly. There is no point waiting for an inquiry they need to be held to account now, so that they up their game now.
Maybe they don’t want a bunch of smaller private labs getting involved, and would rather concentrate the effort through a few. Yesterday it was announced that one of the large pharma firms (GSK, I think) were getting involved and would have capacity to handle the processing of 30,000 tests a day.0 -
10,000 CPAP devices have been delivered to the NHS:
https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-inside-story-of-how-mercedes-f1-and-academics-fast-tracked-life-saving-breathing-aid-136028
Well done UCL and Mercedes-AMG
"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]3 -
I do wonder if I had my apendicitus now if I would have gone in.
I had a night of pain that kept me awake but by the next morning it had gone and I felt fine. It was only because I had already seen an out-of-hours GP who said I shouldn’t leave hospital until I have a blood test or make sure I’m ok that I ended up having it diagnosed.
I can imagine being much more reluctant and sitting it out.
It’s routine surgery but fairly serious if you don’t do it. I guess I would have turned up after it had burst.0 -
Why now?kingstonian said:surrey_commuter said:
Assuming that this might carry on for months or years do you not think it would be good to accept they have a problem and then work to improve it.rjsterry said:
It's not underreporting if it's made clear that the figure is *only* hospital deaths registered on that day. And it was, to the best of my memory, from the start. Or was I the only one that saw this. There will be other, different lags and exclusions in the figures published by other countries. ALL the figures are provisional and subject to revision. Apparent divergence in these figures is certainly worth investigating and learning from where it is found that they have indeed been more successful than us, but let's get the full real data.rick_chasey said:
I don't think there is a conspiracy re the numbers.rjsterry said:The thing I have a problem with is the narrative that these figures have been hidden to make us look better. There are so many questionable assumptions in that theory that it's bordering on tinfoil territory. Anyone who has a family member in a care home of one sort or another will be acutely aware that the daily total at the top of each evening news is not the 'real figure'. And in any case I don't believe it was ever intended to be such. It just gives a rough idea of how the spread of the disease is progressing. Comparison with other countries can suggest some further avenues for investigation but there are no safe detailed conclusions to draw on where we are in the 'Covid Olympics'.
It has come because, rightly or wrongly, you measure your success or failure in dealing with it by what proportion of your population die.
It is quite clear, to me at least, that the total official UK corona death figure is not comparable to, say, the French, as the French are counting differently (i.e. they are including deaths beyond hopsitals).
As SC mentioned, they have shifted to make it clear the count the UK is relasing is the hopsital count.
The discussion came up because I spend a lot of time saying that other countries are doing better, relative to the UK, and that it is on the UK gov't's poor decision making and timing. That was disputed, hence the discussion on the stats.
We keep referring to the stats, so it's worth baring in mind that the stats are incomplete.
Surely it is significant that the UK may well be *massively underreporting* care home deaths, or, conversely, it would be equally significant if the UK was dealing with people who are in care homes very differently and that was coming out it the stats, would it not, as it would then be an outlier and worth investigating - not least if it means it has saved a vast amount of lives!!
To be clear, I think there are already several strong candidates in the "things we could have done better" category, but right now we should be focusing on what we *can* do better, rather than what we *could have* done better.
I keep reading that private labs keep offering their resources to help boost capacity but that they hear nothing back from the Govt. Maybe if the Govt stopped talking sh1te they would accept they have a problem and work to improve it by at the very least replying to emails offering assistance.
They really are an abject disgrace who are costing this country dearly. There is no point waiting for an inquiry they need to be held to account now, so that they up their game now.
Maybe they don’t want a bunch of smaller private labs getting involved, and would rather concentrate the effort through a few. Yesterday it was announced that one of the large pharma firms (GSK, I think) were getting involved and would have capacity to handle the processing of 30,000 tests a day.0 -
Pity my father didn’t go get checked after the first night of pain in appendix. On the third morning he finally did, had emergency surgery but it had already perforated, got subsequent secondary sepsis, never recovered and was dead less than two weeks later.rick_chasey said:I do wonder if I had my apendicitus now if I would have gone in.
I had a night of pain that kept me awake but by the next morning it had gone and I felt fine. It was only because I had already seen an out-of-hours GP who said I shouldn’t leave hospital until I have a blood test or make sure I’m ok that I ended up having it diagnosed.
I can imagine being much more reluctant and sitting it out.
It’s routine surgery but fairly serious if you don’t do it. I guess I would have turned up after it had burst.
Open One+ BMC TE29 Seven 622SL On One Scandal Cervelo RS0 -
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Aaaargh
Cabinet needs to stop lying0 -
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Might explain why Trump is so keen to lift restrictions.Pross said:
Lucky no-one in this country would get annoyed at being locked down.0 -
He was already making his excuses when announcing it by saying it was a target not an aim (no, I don't know the difference either). That may have been on the day he announced something along the lines of 'we aren't delivering 25,000 tests so we're Going to aim for 100,00'. I commented on here at the time that it seemed weirdrick_chasey said:
Aaaargh
Cabinet needs to stop lying0 -
Interesting from Germany how they tracked down in meticulous detail the first cases.
Some other interesting points around the difficults of track and trace in a country where they literally had the Stasi
Worth noting their death rate of 1.9%, given the volume of testing and the absence of deaths due to not receiving ICU, that's a good base figure for policy decisions
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/04/it-was-the-saltshaker-how-germany-meticulously-traced-its-coronavirus-outbreak/
“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0 -
"But I'm dry, why am I carrying this stupid umbrella?"0
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Interesting "pause, look down and to the left" moment from Hancock just now.
"You can do 25000 tests today?"
"... … … Yes."0 -
You have to bear in mind that this is the country where, when the lock down was announced, there was a mad rush to buy guns.Pross said:
Might explain why Trump is so keen to lift restrictions.Pross said:
Lucky no-one in this country would get annoyed at being locked down.
I think there are two possibilities (1) the governers will have a stand-off with him and it will be cast as a "republican vs democrat thing" (2) the US will become a working laboratory experiment on what a second wave looks like.0 -
What makes it even stranger is that a target is the object. The aim is the action. The target remains regardless of the aim success or failure.Pross said:
He was already making his excuses when announcing it by saying it was a target not an aim (no, I don't know the difference either). That may have been on the day he announced something along the lines of 'we aren't delivering 25,000 tests so we're Going to aim for 100,00'. I commented on here at the time that it seemed weirdrick_chasey said:
Aaaargh
Cabinet needs to stop lying
Weird analogy to attempt.The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
And this is a perfect example of having to make a heavily compromised decision due to circumstances out of your control.rick_chasey said:I do wonder if I had my apendicitus now if I would have gone in.
I had a night of pain that kept me awake but by the next morning it had gone and I felt fine. It was only because I had already seen an out-of-hours GP who said I shouldn’t leave hospital until I have a blood test or make sure I’m ok that I ended up having it diagnosed.
I can imagine being much more reluctant and sitting it out.
It’s routine surgery but fairly serious if you don’t do it. I guess I would have turned up after it had burst.
You are stating that you would be open to taking a risk with a almost certainly terminal condition(if untreated) rather than take a risk with a virus (that you aren’t guaranteed to catch) that in all probability will give you minor symptoms but does have a risk of mortality.
Not so straightforward is it?
From what we’re seeing in the US, people are choosing to take their chances with a virus that could (but in probability won’t) kill them rather than face certain economic hardship.
I think America has a much bigger problem with both misinformation and lack of social security but even so. More people will make similar decisions the longer this goes on.
I’m not arguing any position other than this is not f@cking easy.2 -
FT reporting UK isn't even at its capacity of 19000 tests per day two weeks before it is supposed to be doing 100,000 tests a day.
Apparently some of the challenge challenge is the logistics around the 'flow of specimens' , getting them to the right facilities and getting the results back. Apparently that is slightly more critical over here compared to say Germany because Germany has more, smaller, labs so the logistics are more local whereas the UK operates a more centralised model (as you would expect with a centralised health-care system).
Though Germany is at 500,000 tests a day.1 -
https://www.reddit.com/r/pics/comments/g1x30z/protestors_against_the_stayathome_order_in/Pross said:
Might explain why Trump is so keen to lift restrictions.Pross said:
Lucky no-one in this country would get annoyed at being locked down.
They blocked the streets to the hospital and the ambulance entrance...
https://www.reddit.com/r/insanepeoplefacebook/comments/g1wlrp/people_in_michigan_protesting_the_stay_at_home/- Genesis Croix de Fer
- Dolan Tuono0 -
Well I didn't know it was appendicitis - i was fine and even the blood test came back negative - the A&E surgeon just refused to believe I was ok so sent me to an ultra sound. I'm just wondering out loud if I would have bothered going to A&E for something that went away after a night.morstar said:
And this is a perfect example of having to make a heavily compromised decision due to circumstances out of your control.rick_chasey said:I do wonder if I had my apendicitus now if I would have gone in.
I had a night of pain that kept me awake but by the next morning it had gone and I felt fine. It was only because I had already seen an out-of-hours GP who said I shouldn’t leave hospital until I have a blood test or make sure I’m ok that I ended up having it diagnosed.
I can imagine being much more reluctant and sitting it out.
It’s routine surgery but fairly serious if you don’t do it. I guess I would have turned up after it had burst.
You are stating that you would be open to taking a risk with a almost certainly terminal condition(if untreated) rather than take a risk with a virus (that you aren’t guaranteed to catch) that in all probability will give you minor symptoms but does have a risk of mortality.
Not so straightforward is it?
From what we’re seeing in the US, people are choosing to take their chances with a virus that could (but in probability won’t) kill them rather than face certain economic hardship.
I think America has a much bigger problem with both misinformation and lack of social security but even so. More people will make similar decisions the longer this goes on.
I’m not arguing any position other than this is not f@cking easy.
To be clear, I've never said this isn't a problem. Au contraire.0 -
As mentioned before we have a lot of localised labs but Govt not interested in using them.rick_chasey said:FT reporting UK isn't even at its capacity of 19000 tests per day two weeks before it is supposed to be doing 100,000 tests a day.
Apparently some of the challenge challenge is the logistics around the 'flow of specimens' , getting them to the right facilities and getting the results back. Apparently that is slightly more critical over here compared to say Germany because Germany has more, smaller, labs so the logistics are more local whereas the UK operates a more centralised model (as you would expect with a centralised health-care system).
Though Germany is at 500,000 tests a day.0 -
In a population of 83m, that means Germany is testing approx. 0.6% of the population a day. Or the whole population once every 5-6 months. Do we think that this enough to keep track of the virus given the rate of spread?rick_chasey said:FT reporting UK isn't even at its capacity of 19000 tests per day two weeks before it is supposed to be doing 100,000 tests a day.
Apparently some of the challenge challenge is the logistics around the 'flow of specimens' , getting them to the right facilities and getting the results back. Apparently that is slightly more critical over here compared to say Germany because Germany has more, smaller, labs so the logistics are more local whereas the UK operates a more centralised model (as you would expect with a centralised health-care system).
Though Germany is at 500,000 tests a day."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
rick_chasey said:
Aaaargh
Cabinet needs to stop lying
As that is not going to happen I think a better question is do they know what the truth is?0 -
Depends right?Stevo_666 said:
In a population of 83m, that means Germany is testing approx. 0.6% of the population a day. Or the whole population once every 5-6 months. Do we think that this enough to keep track of the virus given the rate of spread?rick_chasey said:FT reporting UK isn't even at its capacity of 19000 tests per day two weeks before it is supposed to be doing 100,000 tests a day.
Apparently some of the challenge challenge is the logistics around the 'flow of specimens' , getting them to the right facilities and getting the results back. Apparently that is slightly more critical over here compared to say Germany because Germany has more, smaller, labs so the logistics are more local whereas the UK operates a more centralised model (as you would expect with a centralised health-care system).
Though Germany is at 500,000 tests a day.
In my mind it is all about infection rate vs testing rate, but what do I know.
If you are keeping new infections below the testing rate in my mind it is easier to track and isolate without having to shut the whole caboodle down.0 -
Basically i can't see an exit strategy that doesn't involve a tonne of testing. Someone may have a better idea?0
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Where does the stat of Germany doing 500,000 tests a day come from? Genuinely interested as it doesn't seem to correlate to the Worldometers site that shows 1.7m tests in total having been conducted.0
