Coronavirus and pro sport

gsk82

sherer said:

ive said before id like to see a Grant Tour with no high mountain passes. Something a classics rider could win over three weeks. Whether that would work and be more exciting we wont know until it's tried.

Lets move Paris - Roubaix to the alps while we're at it. It doesn't start in Paris anyway.

sherer

RichN95. said:

sherer said:

ive said before id like to see a Grant Tour with no high mountain passes. Something a classics rider could win over three weeks. Whether that would work and be more exciting we wont know until it's tried.

They tried to do that in 2012. It wasn't a thriller.

dont remember that edition. Did any non GT specialists actualy target it though ?

As with these things it's the riders that make the race. Even a great stage on paper can end up being rubbish

RichN95.

sherer said:

RichN95. said:

sherer said:

ive said before id like to see a Grant Tour with no high mountain passes. Something a classics rider could win over three weeks. Whether that would work and be more exciting we wont know until it's tried.

They tried to do that in 2012. It wasn't a thriller.

dont remember that edition. Did any non GT specialists actualy target it though ?

As with these things it's the riders that make the race. Even a great stage on paper can end up being rubbish

I was referring to the Tour. The one Wiggins won. Prudhomme announced that it would be a course that the rouleurs could win on.

blazing_saddles

fenix said:

I doubt we will get a TdF this year. They'll prob use the 2020 route for next year ?

Doubtful, given Copenhagen hosts the 2021 Grand Depart.

My guess it would be money back to the participating 2020 venues, with the promise of a future date.

In other words, the most uniquely designed Tour, comes to a uniquely unsatisfactory end.

rick_chasey

sherer said:

RichN95. said:

sherer said:

ive said before id like to see a Grant Tour with no high mountain passes. Something a classics rider could win over three weeks. Whether that would work and be more exciting we wont know until it's tried.

They tried to do that in 2012. It wasn't a thriller.

dont remember that edition. Did any non GT specialists actualy target it though ?

Well, Wiggins won it and he's by no means a GT specialist.

sherer

RichN95. said:

sherer said:

RichN95. said:

sherer said:

ive said before id like to see a Grant Tour with no high mountain passes. Something a classics rider could win over three weeks. Whether that would work and be more exciting we wont know until it's tried.

They tried to do that in 2012. It wasn't a thriller.

dont remember that edition. Did any non GT specialists actualy target it though ?

As with these things it's the riders that make the race. Even a great stage on paper can end up being rubbish

I was referring to the Tour. The one Wiggins won. Prudhomme announced that it would be a course that the rouleurs could win on.

Thought you were referring to the Giro and not Le Tour.

It still had plenty of high passes though, Madeleine, Croix De Fer, Aubisque, Tourmalet and others. It may have been billed as for roulers but with stages like stage 16 they had no chance, so why even bother. Last year was pretty exciting with Alaphillippe in the running right until the end.

What id like is one with no HC climbs at all and keep it below 1000m.

First had the idea back in the 2000s when there was talk of a rider like Cancellara being able to win it. He always said he was too heavy and couldnt get over the big climbs, so I thought about taking them out.

It could end up being a total rubbish idea, but with three GTs all doing the same format, why not have one try something different.

pblakeney

Possibly for the same reason that a classic doesn’t throw in an HC to make it more interesting.

RichN95.

sherer said:

Thought you were referring to the Giro and not Le Tour.

It still had plenty of high passes though, Madeleine, Croix De Fer, Aubisque, Tourmalet and others. It may have been billed as for roulers but with stages like stage 16 they had no chance, so why even bother. Last year was pretty exciting with Alaphillippe in the running right until the end.

What id like is one with no HC climbs at all and keep it below 1000m.

First had the idea back in the 2000s when there was talk of a rider like Cancellara being able to win it. He always said he was too heavy and couldnt get over the big climbs, so I thought about taking them out.

It could end up being a total rubbish idea, but with three GTs all doing the same format, why not have one try something different.

You could try the 2004 Giro, which only had one, maybe two, real mountain stages and was won by what turned out to be a classics rider. Sergiy Honchar came second. Brad McGee came 8th. Petacchi won nine stages, It was a stinker of a race, although considering the era, clean riders had a chance of doing something.

sherer

I think I remember some of that one but not that clearly.
Sounds like it wasnt a great race though.
As i said a lot of my thinking was must to give riders I like a chance of winning it.

tailwindhome

https://twitter.com/TheRaceRadio/status/1250105154956746754?s=19

blazing_saddles

RichN95. said:

sherer said:

Thought you were referring to the Giro and not Le Tour.

It still had plenty of high passes though, Madeleine, Croix De Fer, Aubisque, Tourmalet and others. It may have been billed as for roulers but with stages like stage 16 they had no chance, so why even bother. Last year was pretty exciting with Alaphillippe in the running right until the end.

What id like is one with no HC climbs at all and keep it below 1000m.

First had the idea back in the 2000s when there was talk of a rider like Cancellara being able to win it. He always said he was too heavy and couldnt get over the big climbs, so I thought about taking them out.

It could end up being a total rubbish idea, but with three GTs all doing the same format, why not have one try something different.

You could try the 2004 Giro, which only had one, maybe two, real mountain stages and was won by what turned out to be a classics rider. Sergiy Honchar came second. Brad McGee came 8th. Petacchi won nine stages, It was a stinker of a race, although considering the era, clean riders had a chance of doing something.

It was such a steaming pile that it was quite possibly the defining factor as to why the 2005 Giro was a great edition.
Who knows maybe even why the RCS decided to introduce "Froome's Mountain" to the race.

blazing_saddles

https://twitter.com/TheRaceRadio/status/1250080607322816512

ugo.santalucia

It might be possible to do the Tour in late August....

Here's my theory, that I formulated last night while browsing the quiet aisles of Waitrose for my weekly shopping...
People with the virus and no symptoms (or very mild ones) will visit shops and supermarkets and leave traces of the virus on surfaces and products, by touching and breathing. By the evening, after hundreds of customers have been there, it must be pretty ubiquitous... but crucially the concentration is never enough to actually give you the disease, but might be enough to trigger a very weak immune response, possibly enough to give you a BIT of immunity... hence when you get exposed to a larger dose, you do get a mild disease.

Over time, more and more of the population will have a bit of immunity and fewer and fewer people will need hospitalisation... That might well happen by the summer...

I think it is already happening, in Italy the number of positive cases at any one time and the number of hospital admissions have begun to diverge, one keeps going up, the other is declining.

redvision

ugo.santalucia said:

It might be possible to do the Tour in late August....

Here's my theory, that I formulated last night while browsing the quiet aisles of Waitrose for my weekly shopping...
People with the virus and no symptoms (or very mild ones) will visit shops and supermarkets and leave traces of the virus on surfaces and products, by touching and breathing. By the evening, after hundreds of customers have been there, it must be pretty ubiquitous... but crucially the concentration is never enough to actually give you the disease, but might be enough to trigger a very weak immune response, possibly enough to give you a BIT of immunity... hence when you get exposed to a larger dose, you do get a mild disease.

Over time, more and more of the population will have a bit of immunity and fewer and fewer people will need hospitalisation... That might well happen by the summer...

I think it is already happening, in Italy the number of positive cases at any one time and the number of hospital admissions have begun to diverge, one keeps going up, the other is declining.

That's positive thinking Ugo but looks quite unlikely. It's still too early to know if you gain immunity after having the virus, and the latest data coming from China suggests you may be vulnerable again within 30 days.

This is why the need for a vaccine is so great and until there is one, it's going to be very difficult for life to return to normal (if it ever can).

rick_chasey

I would absolutely love a jam packed autumn. So much.

I just think anything like sports will be some of the last to be unlocked, and we are looking at various stages of lockdown until a vaccine comes around and can be delivered, which won't be this year.

ugo.santalucia

redvision said:

That's positive thinking Ugo but looks quite unlikely. It's still too early to know if you gain immunity after having the virus, and the latest data coming from China suggests you may be vulnerable again within 30 days.

Seemingly very isolated cases... it is possible, it is also very unlikely... probably subjects with immune system disorders. I also suspect the second time round they did have a milder version. Besides, a vaccine is at best as effective as getting immunity from contracting the disease, often worse.

However, my theory clashes with the fact that the second wave of Spanish Flu was far worse than the first... but then again, what was the state of Europe after WW1?

My best guess is that we will have to learn to live with it for some time and things will have to go back to some form of normality, including sport. Maybe football will resume but capacity in stadiums will be limited to 20-30% with seats spread 2 m apart or so. TdF hotspots for fans will be closed off...
Curfews for the elderly and vulnerable might be here to stay though...

kingstongraham

Governor of Florida has deemed WWE to be an essential service, so exempt from the lockdown.

ugo.santalucia

kingstongraham said:

Governor of Florida has deemed WWE to be an essential service, so exempt from the lockdown.

... can't argue with that...

redvision

Tbh I still cannot see how football can return. Even in closed stadiums the amount of personnel required is huge and all would need to be tested regularly and essentially kept in total lockdown within the confines of the stadium/ location of the location. With the number of games to play, I just cannot see this happening. Some clubs in Europe have returned to training with strict precautions in place but from what has leaked out, players are refusing to stay at the clubs training grounds - as they want to be with their families - which is totally understandable.

Then there is the issue of contracts expiring on June 30th - which, despite fifa's proposals last week, will cause huge issues, particularly for lower leagues (where many players are on 1 year deals). So if they try to restart the leagues after June you could have very different line ups... inevitably leading to legal challenges.

I am as desperate as anyone to see sport resume but I think at the same time all that matters is keeping people safe whilst we await a vaccine, and I'm resigned to the thought that most sporting events and leagues this year will be cancelled.

bobmcstuff

I thought most of the supposed Chinese reinfection cases it wasn't clear whether they had actually cleared the virus the first time, or just reduced it to a very low load which subsequently bounced back.

There was also an article which said the virus was mutating quite slowly compared to other similar viruses which boded well for immunity.

So ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

ugo.santalucia

redvision said:

Tbh I still cannot see how football can return. Even in closed stadiums the amount of personnel required is huge and all would need to be tested regularly and essentially kept in total lockdown within the confines of the stadium/ location of the location. With the number of games to play, I just cannot see this happening. Some clubs in Europe have returned to training with strict precautions in place but from what has leaked out, players are refusing to stay at the clubs training grounds - as they want to be with their families - which is totally understandable.

Then there is the issue of contracts expiring on June 30th - which, despite fifa's proposals last week, will cause huge issues, particularly for lower leagues (where many players are on 1 year deals). So if they try to restart the leagues after June you could have very different line ups... inevitably leading to legal challenges.

I am as desperate as anyone to see sport resume but I think at the same time all that matters is keeping people safe whilst we await a vaccine, and I'm resigned to the thought that most sporting events and leagues this year will be cancelled.

Reopening for business involves a degree of managed risk... the desert island or the quarantine for all are not practical solutions and probably won't even work.
Someone will get the disease, a few will go to hospital... the all point is not eradicating the virus by staying locked in for one year, the point is learning to live with it and minimising the impact. Will we have a long trail of deaths for a year or more? Yes, we will, the point is that 900 a day is not sustainable, but if it was a dozen a day, then it would be an acceptable level of risk... in the grand scheme of things it would be less than 1% of the all deaths, still far more likely to have a heart attack or a cancer...

I think once the peak is past, we can learn to live with it, with technology, a lot of testing and some degree of change to our lifestyle

RichN95.

ugo.santalucia said:

It might be possible to do the Tour in late August....

Here's my theory, that I formulated last night while browsing the quiet aisles of Waitrose for my weekly shopping...
People with the virus and no symptoms (or very mild ones) will visit shops and supermarkets and leave traces of the virus on surfaces and products, by touching and breathing. By the evening, after hundreds of customers have been there, it must be pretty ubiquitous... but crucially the concentration is never enough to actually give you the disease, but might be enough to trigger a very weak immune response, possibly enough to give you a BIT of immunity... hence when you get exposed to a larger dose, you do get a mild disease.

.

Isn't that bit in bold basically what vaccination is? But it gives you a lot stronger immunity.

ugo.santalucia

RichN95. said:

Isn't that bit in bold basically what vaccination is? But it gives you a lot stronger immunity.

Basically, yes....

davidof

tailwindhome said:

https://twitter.com/TheRaceRadio/status/1250105154956746754?s=19

That's an official announcement. Tour in September. It will be a bit nippy on some of the high passes.

RichN95.

https://twitter.com/chrisfroome/status/1250350646634536963

Also looking at the helmets, he'll be riding for Jumbo Visma

pblakeney

Or, planning on wearing the leaders jersey in all 3 GTs.

sherer

announced by the ASO now

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cycling/52275648

Although anything could happen between now and then

ddraver

I guess you've seen it - https://www.cyclingnews.com/news/chris-froome-inside-the-tour-de-france-winners-pain-cave-gallery/ - but I have man-envy...

(No skis tho)

blazing_saddles

So, we know the new ASO dates, but the BBC neglect to inform us about the Giro.
Presumably that will take place in October, as was suggested and when the passes begin to become impassable.

Maybe they should run it in reverse order of stages.....

jimmythecuckoo

I hope that all of this racing happens in this condensed period at the end of the year.

Sat here in mid April with no chance of a lockdown being lifted I don't see it however.