If this was a 2nd referendum, which way would you vote?

surrey_commuter

Rick Chasey wrote:

So from a scan no-one would vote differently?

voting Leave (like voting Trump) is an emotional decision - in neither case will people change their minds

you need to count people who will now be eligible to vote, those who will now bother to vote, and those who will no longer be voting

rick_chasey

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

So from a scan no-one would vote differently?

voting Leave (like voting Trump) is an emotional decision - in neither case will people change their minds

you need to count people who will now be eligible to vote, those who will now bother to vote, and those who will no longer be voting

On a tangential note, have heard some rumours that SNP & Lib dems may force labour's hand for an earlier election if Tories agree to reducing voting age to 16.

surrey_commuter

Rick Chasey wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

So from a scan no-one would vote differently?

voting Leave (like voting Trump) is an emotional decision - in neither case will people change their minds

you need to count people who will now be eligible to vote, those who will now bother to vote, and those who will no longer be voting

On a tangential note, have heard some rumours that SNP & Lib dems may force labour's hand for an earlier election if Tories agree to reducing voting age to 16.

problem is that Johnson's history means that nobody trusts him

mfin

As of this morning: 6 no deal / 2 deals / 83 remain

bompington

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

So from a scan no-one would vote differently?

voting Leave (like voting Trump) is an emotional decision - in neither case will people change their minds

you need to count people who will now be eligible to vote, those who will now bother to vote, and those who will no longer be voting

Polls certainly say that very, very few are changing their minds.

It's staggering - the extent to which the whole thing has become like religious fundamentalism, especially for Brexiteers: I have literally never met a fanatical remainer - not even online: without exception the line is something more like "on balance we're better off in the EU".
But a lot of Brexiteers seem to have fallen into the idea that Brexit is an end in itself, rather than (say) a way of furthering prosperity, sovereignty or whatever.

rick_chasey

bompington wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

So from a scan no-one would vote differently?

voting Leave (like voting Trump) is an emotional decision - in neither case will people change their minds

you need to count people who will now be eligible to vote, those who will now bother to vote, and those who will no longer be voting

Polls certainly say that very, very few are changing their minds.

It's staggering - the extent to which the whole thing has become like religious fundamentalism, especially for Brexiteers: I have literally never met a fanatical remainer - not even online: without exception the line is something more like "on balance we're better off in the EU".
But a lot of Brexiteers seem to have fallen into the idea that Brexit is an end in itself, rather than (say) a way of furthering prosperity, sovereignty or whatever.

Who knew that making a binary vote on something most people had as their 5th or 6th most important issues suddenly created an electorate that thought about the issue in a very binary way.

surrey_commuter

bompington wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

So from a scan no-one would vote differently?

voting Leave (like voting Trump) is an emotional decision - in neither case will people change their minds

you need to count people who will now be eligible to vote, those who will now bother to vote, and those who will no longer be voting

Polls certainly say that very, very few are changing their minds.

It's staggering - the extent to which the whole thing has become like religious fundamentalism, especially for Brexiteers: I have literally never met a fanatical remainer - not even online: without exception the line is something more like "on balance we're better off in the EU".
But a lot of Brexiteers seem to have fallen into the idea that Brexit is an end in itself, rather than (say) a way of furthering prosperity, sovereignty or whatever.

do you not think Brexiteers assume their hatred of the EU is mirrored by a Remain love of the EU.

slowbike

Rick Chasey wrote:

So from a scan no-one would vote differently?

Nope - I stuck my hand up last time - I voted Leave first time round - there are still issues with the way the EU is run and a vote Leave was a way of indicating that.

I didn't expect the complete utter shambles that has happened since - I didn't expect Leave to "win" the vote either.

I'd vote remain this time as it's quite clear our current government hasn't got a clue, and it's now clear that the issues with the EU setup are minuscule compared to the ballsup the government would make of any method of leaving.

I think this whole thing should've been dealt with within the initial time frame - Art50 not called until we had a clear idea on what we wanted - and a firm end date with "Status Quo" being in place if an agreement couldn't be reached (hindsight is wonderful).

Government trying to bully their party into voting their way is shameful - the MPs should be free to vote in the interests of their constituents in key matters like this. They've clearly shown they're not fit to govern (IMHO).

daniel_b

bompington wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

So from a scan no-one would vote differently?

voting Leave (like voting Trump) is an emotional decision - in neither case will people change their minds

you need to count people who will now be eligible to vote, those who will now bother to vote, and those who will no longer be voting

Polls certainly say that very, very few are changing their minds.

It's staggering - the extent to which the whole thing has become like religious fundamentalism, especially for Brexiteers: I have literally never met a fanatical remainer - not even online: without exception the line is something more like "on balance we're better off in the EU".
But a lot of Brexiteers seem to have fallen into the idea that Brexit is an end in itself, rather than (say) a way of furthering prosperity, sovereignty or whatever.

It is exactly that, it reminds me of the football mentality of us and them, which is really depressing.
We won, you lost, remoaners bla de bla.

shortfall

bompington wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

?

I have literally never met a fanatical remainer - not even online: .

Are you a stranger to CakeStop perchance?

shortfall

..........

Ben6899

Slowbike wrote:

I voted Leave first time round - there are still issues with the way the EU is run and a vote Leave was a way of indicating that.

I didn't expect the complete utter shambles that has happened since - I didn't expect Leave to "win" the vote either.

Honestly. Jesus Christ.

Massively irresponsible to vote in that way. Even more naïve.

bompington

Shortfall wrote:

bompington wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

?

I have literally never met a fanatical remainer - not even online: .

Are you a stranger to CakeStop perchance?

No, and this is exactly the point.
I see (here, and in real life) a lot of remainers who are passionate, angry, frustrated, dismayed at the stupidity of their compatriots, and so on.

But not because we think the status quo is all that fantastic - it's only because we know Brexit is an act of self-harm.

I can imagine a lot of remainers being willing to try very hard to stay in the EU. But not a single one who would "die in a ditch" actually out of love for the EU.

rick_chasey

Well yes. I get cast as the archest of arch remainers yet I've probably been the most vocal advocate for a more sensible Norway style departure (post ref) with a view to defining what the future relationship will be further down the road.

mfin

Daniel B wrote:

It is exactly that, it reminds me of the football mentality of us and them, which is really depressing.
We won, you lost, remoaners bla de bla.

+1 again. The binary nature of fanatically dealing in the absolute of "we voted out" is troubling. Of course, it is nothing but a dumbed down way of closing the door on the much, much more important questions of the intricacies and details of exiting the EU.

What I think is interesting is the leave campaign of the referendum focussed on this binary dumbed down way of getting votes, and now that Boris is going into election mode he seems to be relying on the same soundbite approach with nothing underneath it. This is a mistake.

I think the Conservatives would be in a better place if they realised the core dumbed down voters should be in the bag and the fringe ones need something more than this to go on. Of course, trying to pull the focus away from brexit and into other domestic policies is no substitute, many people will simply see that as an attempted diversion to avoid getting into detail of the critical problem at hand.

We're in a place where politics as probably passed the cusp where details play any part in selling a particular approach. If we're just in dumbed down Leave/Trump methods of campaigning now then the only remaining shock is that often there is little substance beyond a cheap trick vote attracting strategy.

rolf_f

Ben6899 wrote:

Slowbike wrote:

I voted Leave first time round - there are still issues with the way the EU is run and a vote Leave was a way of indicating that.

I didn't expect the complete utter shambles that has happened since - I didn't expect Leave to "win" the vote either.

Honestly. Jesus Christ.

Massively irresponsible to vote in that way. Even more naïve.

Bit of a facepalm thing really. Voting leave was never a way of indicating dissatisfaction with the way the EU is run. It is a way of indicating that you want to leave the EU. Nothing more than that.

slowbike

Rolf F wrote:

Ben6899 wrote:

Slowbike wrote:

I voted Leave first time round - there are still issues with the way the EU is run and a vote Leave was a way of indicating that.

I didn't expect the complete utter shambles that has happened since - I didn't expect Leave to "win" the vote either.

Honestly. Jesus Christ.

Massively irresponsible to vote in that way. Even more naïve.

Bit of a facepalm thing really. Voting leave was never a way of indicating dissatisfaction with the way the EU is run. It is a way of indicating that you want to leave the EU. Nothing more than that.

well - you live and learn ..

rolf_f

Slowbike wrote:

Rolf F wrote:

Ben6899 wrote:

Slowbike wrote:

I voted Leave first time round - there are still issues with the way the EU is run and a vote Leave was a way of indicating that.

I didn't expect the complete utter shambles that has happened since - I didn't expect Leave to "win" the vote either.

Honestly. Jesus Christ.

Massively irresponsible to vote in that way. Even more naïve.

Bit of a facepalm thing really. Voting leave was never a way of indicating dissatisfaction with the way the EU is run. It is a way of indicating that you want to leave the EU. Nothing more than that.

well - you live and learn ..

Well that's it (though a shame we aren't allowed to learn from this eg by another referendum). Ultimately Cameron is responsible for this. I hope he realises it.

slowbike

Rolf F wrote:

Well that's it (though a shame we aren't allowed to learn from this eg by another referendum). Ultimately Cameron is responsible for this. I hope he realises it.

All the shenanigans are enough to put anyone off politics for life ...

Perhaps Politicians should be made to present opinions and ideas as such - and not as though they are fact.

Ben6899

Slowbike wrote:

Rolf F wrote:

Well that's it (though a shame we aren't allowed to learn from this eg by another referendum). Ultimately Cameron is responsible for this. I hope he realises it.

All the shenanigans are enough to put anyone off politics for life ...

Perhaps Politicians should be made to present opinions and ideas as such - and not as though they are fact.

There's an onus on the electorate to do a bit of research and self-thinking as well.

bompington

I have seen a lot written, and I think I (at least half) understand it, about the quite logical processes by which a vote which was allegedly a mix of "don't really want to leave, but let's give the EU a really big scare" and "leave but stay pretty close" had morphed into hard Brexit at all costs.
But I still find it scary and depressing.

What next? Declare war on Brussels? Shoot the Remoaners?

Anyway, can anyone find any poll evidence for how many people thought in 2016 that leaving meant no deal? (Or wanted no deal).
We already know that pretty much everyone leading the leave campaign didn't. Or at least claimed they didn't.

slowbike

Ben6899 wrote:

Slowbike wrote:

Rolf F wrote:

Well that's it (though a shame we aren't allowed to learn from this eg by another referendum). Ultimately Cameron is responsible for this. I hope he realises it.

All the shenanigans are enough to put anyone off politics for life ...

Perhaps Politicians should be made to present opinions and ideas as such - and not as though they are fact.

There's an onus on the electorate to do a bit of research and self-thinking as well.

The majority of the research material is based on peoples opinion - and very little fact - because nobody has left the EU before - so there could be no fact - just opinion. So who's opinion do you trust? Yours? I don't know you. Newspapers? Well, they're biased towards whichever political stance they want to take.
In short, afaik, there isn't any one source you can implicitly trust.

IIRC - the general consensus was that Remain would comfortably win the referendum.
There are elements of the way the UK dealt with the EU that I didn't/don't agree with - that's from experience within different sports/activities. It certainly wasn't any reason that NF was shouting leave that influenced my vote.
I certainly didn't think the government would make a dogs dinner out of the result - it wasn't even a binding referendum.

surrey_commuter

bompington wrote:

I have seen a lot written, and I think I (at least half) understand it, about the quite logical processes by which a vote which was allegedly a mix of "don't really want to leave, but let's give the EU a really big scare" and "leave but stay pretty close" had morphed into hard Brexit at all costs.
But I still find it scary and depressing.

What next? Declare war on Brussels? Shoot the Remoaners?

Anyway, can anyone find any poll evidence for how many people thought in 2016 that leaving meant no deal? (Or wanted no deal).
We already know that pretty much everyone leading the leave campaign didn't. Or at least claimed they didn't.

I am convinced there are some very clever people behind Leave. From 24th june they have driven an uncompromising agenda to get us to the brink of no-deal, with Boris as there latest puppet. The opposition has been a mixture of disarray and wanting to believe compromise is possible, I now think they know compromise is not possible as even if we leave with no-deal they will keep pushing. With the expulsions and resignations the tory party feels on the verge of a split, who gets to keep teh brand will be interesting.

surrey_commuter

Slowbike wrote:

Ben6899 wrote:

Slowbike wrote:

Rolf F wrote:

Well that's it (though a shame we aren't allowed to learn from this eg by another referendum). Ultimately Cameron is responsible for this. I hope he realises it.

All the shenanigans are enough to put anyone off politics for life ...

Perhaps Politicians should be made to present opinions and ideas as such - and not as though they are fact.

There's an onus on the electorate to do a bit of research and self-thinking as well.

The majority of the research material is based on peoples opinion - and very little fact - because nobody has left the EU before - so there could be no fact - just opinion. So who's opinion do you trust? Yours? I don't know you. Newspapers? Well, they're biased towards whichever political stance they want to take.
In short, afaik, there isn't any one source you can implicitly trust.

IIRC - the general consensus was that Remain would comfortably win the referendum.
There are elements of the way the UK dealt with the EU that I didn't/don't agree with - that's from experience within different sports/activities. It certainly wasn't any reason that NF was shouting leave that influenced my vote.
I certainly didn't think the government would make a dogs dinner out of the result - it wasn't even a binding referendum.

without going into old ground (too much) there is a reason why nobody has left the EU and people are queueing up to leap through hoops to join. There is also a reason why Leave could not find one expert to say it was a good idea to leave, just think the JC/McDonnell has a raft of experts supporting their economic policies. Lastly you should have been aware enough to know that our politicians are 3rd raters in no way capable to extracting us painlessly from the EU.

slowbike

Surrey Commuter wrote:

without going into old ground (too much) there is a reason why nobody has left the EU and people are queueing up to leap through hoops to join.

Those queuing up to join were not in the prominent position that the UK was in.

Surrey Commuter wrote:

There is also a reason why Leave could not find one expert to say it was a good idea to leave, just think the JC/McDonnell has a raft of experts supporting their economic policies.

It's the art of the potential - nobody could say it WILL be xyz because nobody had done it before.

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Lastly you should have been aware enough to know that our politicians are 3rd raters in no way capable to extracting us painlessly from the EU.

There's a huge jump between painlessly and the excruciating pain we seem to be getting ourselves into.
AFAIR - Remain never said "think of the worst possible exit that you can think of and double it" - nor did Leave.

My reasons for voting the way I did have not changed - but the way I should've voted has. I'm not into politics in any way shape or form - I despise the way that some play games with other peoples lives - give it straight up and play openly and fairly.

robert88

Slowbike wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

without going into old ground (too much) there is a reason why nobody has left the EU and people are queueing up to leap through hoops to join.

Those queuing up to join were not in the prominent position that the UK was in.
......

If you are referring to our position in the late 60s and early 70s then I would say we were by no means in a prominent position. We were desperate to find export markets to replace the captive markets of the empire, vanished when countries gained independence and could escape from the restrictions imposed by the UK. Far more draconian restrictions than we impose on ourselves as EU members and ones that they will never accept again.

It's interesting to see criticism of Trump's attempt to redress the trade imbalance between the USA and China. He wants to do so by making China export less to the USA and also to buy US produced goods. It can't possibly work simply because the USA cannot produce goods in sufficient volume or at a price the Chinese can afford. US workers are less hard working and demand better conditions than Chinese workers.

The idea that the UK can tread the same path is completely illusory.

Ben6899

Slowbike wrote:

The majority of the research material is based on peoples opinion - and very little fact - because nobody has left the EU before - so there could be no fact - just opinion. So who's opinion do you trust? Yours? I don't know you. Newspapers? Well, they're biased towards whichever political stance they want to take.
In short, afaik, there isn't any one source you can implicitly trust.

It's called critical thinking.

slowbike

Robert88 wrote:

Slowbike wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

without going into old ground (too much) there is a reason why nobody has left the EU and people are queueing up to leap through hoops to join.

Those queuing up to join were not in the prominent position that the UK was in.
......

If you are referring to our position in the late 60s and early 70s then I would say we were by no means in a prominent position.

No - we are/were in a prominent position within the EU - being a net contributor and one of the few top members. There's nobody waiting to join that would jump into the same/similar position that the UK is in now.

Robert88 wrote:

We were desperate to find export markets to replace the captive markets of the empire, vanished when countries gained independence and could escape from the restrictions imposed by the UK. Far more draconian restrictions than we impose on ourselves as EU members and ones that they will never accept again.

I never did like history ...

Robert88 wrote:

It's interesting to see criticism of Trump's attempt to redress the trade imbalance between the USA and China. He wants to do so by making China export less to the USA and also to buy US produced goods. It can't possibly work simply because the USA cannot produce goods in sufficient volume or at a price the Chinese can afford. US workers are less hard working and demand better conditions than Chinese workers.

The idea that the UK can tread the same path is completely illusory.

At some point, the price for chinese/cheap goods will rise beyond what is acceptable and capable of being made elsewhere - anyone sensible who is importing has already got in place, or plans to have in place - alternative manufacturers where the costs can be kept down - with the way the GBP is going - that might just be the UK soon!

slowbike

Ben6899 wrote:

Slowbike wrote:

The majority of the research material is based on peoples opinion - and very little fact - because nobody has left the EU before - so there could be no fact - just opinion. So who's opinion do you trust? Yours? I don't know you. Newspapers? Well, they're biased towards whichever political stance they want to take.
In short, afaik, there isn't any one source you can implicitly trust.

It's called critical thinking.

I can't help but think you're being a little too critical?

bompington

Slowbike wrote:

The majority of the research material is based on peoples opinion - and very little fact - because nobody has left the EU before - so there could be no fact - just opinion. So who's opinion do you trust? Yours? I don't know you. Newspapers? Well, they're biased towards whichever political stance they want to take.
In short, afaik, there isn't any one source you can implicitly trust

You are basically falling for the particular application of the postmodernist line being pushed by the likes of Trump and Putin: they know perfectly well that they're pushing a load of guff, they don't expect you to believe it either, but the aim is more to cause confusion, chaos, and a lack of trust in... well, more or less everything.